Arin Dube
@arindube.bsky.social
Provost Prof. of Economics (UMass Amherst).
Inequality, labor market policies and competition.
Affiliations: NBER, IZA, MIT Shaping the Future of Work Initiative
Preorder my book, The Wage Standard: https://www.thewagestandard.com
Inequality, labor market policies and competition.
Affiliations: NBER, IZA, MIT Shaping the Future of Work Initiative
Preorder my book, The Wage Standard: https://www.thewagestandard.com
When states like Colorado passed policies requiring employers to disclose salary information in job postings, what happened?
It increased competition, and raised wages, without harming employment or changing skill requirements.
Improved functioning of markets, helped workers.
It increased competition, and raised wages, without harming employment or changing skill requirements.
Improved functioning of markets, helped workers.
November 17, 2025 at 4:41 PM
When states like Colorado passed policies requiring employers to disclose salary information in job postings, what happened?
It increased competition, and raised wages, without harming employment or changing skill requirements.
Improved functioning of markets, helped workers.
It increased competition, and raised wages, without harming employment or changing skill requirements.
Improved functioning of markets, helped workers.
New NYT piece on price/rent control from
@bharatramamurti.bsky.social and @nealemahoney.bsky.social
suggests a middle ground of careful use.
@bharatramamurti.bsky.social and @nealemahoney.bsky.social
suggests a middle ground of careful use.
November 16, 2025 at 3:00 PM
New NYT piece on price/rent control from
@bharatramamurti.bsky.social and @nealemahoney.bsky.social
suggests a middle ground of careful use.
@bharatramamurti.bsky.social and @nealemahoney.bsky.social
suggests a middle ground of careful use.
In that review, we found that these major cities implementing citywide minimums saw strong wage growth at the bottom, with little overall impact on low-wage jobs.
Link to our 2021 JEP review of citywide min wages: pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...
Link to our 2021 JEP review of citywide min wages: pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...
November 5, 2025 at 5:53 PM
In that review, we found that these major cities implementing citywide minimums saw strong wage growth at the bottom, with little overall impact on low-wage jobs.
Link to our 2021 JEP review of citywide min wages: pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...
Link to our 2021 JEP review of citywide min wages: pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...
Voters in Maine’s largest city on Tuesday approved Question A, a referendum that would raise the city’s minimum wage to $19 an hour by 2028.
November 5, 2025 at 4:26 AM
Voters in Maine’s largest city on Tuesday approved Question A, a referendum that would raise the city’s minimum wage to $19 an hour by 2028.
Predictions are hard, especially about the future, but I am quite confident that the term MNYGA will not live on...
November 5, 2025 at 2:33 AM
Predictions are hard, especially about the future, but I am quite confident that the term MNYGA will not live on...
From the recent New Yorker interview of @drodrik.bsky.social
on his new book, by
@johncassidysays.bsky.social
(Link below in the thread).
on his new book, by
@johncassidysays.bsky.social
(Link below in the thread).
November 4, 2025 at 1:43 PM
From the recent New Yorker interview of @drodrik.bsky.social
on his new book, by
@johncassidysays.bsky.social
(Link below in the thread).
on his new book, by
@johncassidysays.bsky.social
(Link below in the thread).
Looking forward to presenting tomorrow at the Princeton labor seminar.
October 20, 2025 at 1:49 AM
Looking forward to presenting tomorrow at the Princeton labor seminar.
One of the more meta similarities between 2000 and 2025 is the extent to which the likelihood of a bubble is widely recognized and discussed, even as asset prices climb.
September 29, 2025 at 3:03 AM
One of the more meta similarities between 2000 and 2025 is the extent to which the likelihood of a bubble is widely recognized and discussed, even as asset prices climb.
Don't look now, but I expect calls for tax justice to grow louder here in America too.
September 20, 2025 at 12:11 AM
Don't look now, but I expect calls for tax justice to grow louder here in America too.
Pope Leo XIV speaks out against wage inequality.
September 14, 2025 at 9:56 PM
Pope Leo XIV speaks out against wage inequality.
Here is a scary story: a two-sided Wile E. Coyote cliff. One is Trump policies: market may have under-priced costs. Another is AI: investors may have been overly optimistic.
Correcting beliefs on one may lead to corrections in the other: with a scary multiplier.
Correcting beliefs on one may lead to corrections in the other: with a scary multiplier.
September 8, 2025 at 6:04 PM
Here is a scary story: a two-sided Wile E. Coyote cliff. One is Trump policies: market may have under-priced costs. Another is AI: investors may have been overly optimistic.
Correcting beliefs on one may lead to corrections in the other: with a scary multiplier.
Correcting beliefs on one may lead to corrections in the other: with a scary multiplier.
Finally, if the labor market were not becoming more slack, we might see an uptick in wage growth. That's not happened: nominal wage growth has slowed a bit over 2025.
September 5, 2025 at 5:41 PM
Finally, if the labor market were not becoming more slack, we might see an uptick in wage growth. That's not happened: nominal wage growth has slowed a bit over 2025.
Second, if we look at particularly vulnerable groups, like African Americans, we see a rising unemployment rate. Keep in mind that subgroup estimates are noisy (small sample size).
But smoothing by 3 or 6 months shows a disturbing signal: the trend here is not your friend.
But smoothing by 3 or 6 months shows a disturbing signal: the trend here is not your friend.
September 5, 2025 at 5:40 PM
Second, if we look at particularly vulnerable groups, like African Americans, we see a rising unemployment rate. Keep in mind that subgroup estimates are noisy (small sample size).
But smoothing by 3 or 6 months shows a disturbing signal: the trend here is not your friend.
But smoothing by 3 or 6 months shows a disturbing signal: the trend here is not your friend.
First, immigration is certainly playing a direct role in reducing jobs. However, if demand conditions were stable and there were a reduction in labor supply, raising tightness, we'd expect unemployment rate to *fall.*
Unemployment rate has been inching *up.* That's not good.
Unemployment rate has been inching *up.* That's not good.
September 5, 2025 at 5:40 PM
First, immigration is certainly playing a direct role in reducing jobs. However, if demand conditions were stable and there were a reduction in labor supply, raising tightness, we'd expect unemployment rate to *fall.*
Unemployment rate has been inching *up.* That's not good.
Unemployment rate has been inching *up.* That's not good.
First, we now have 4 months of below-100k net job growth. The 3-month average is 29k and 6-month average is 64k, with all showing an unmistakable slowdown since April of this year.
Month-to-month job changes are noisy, but at this point the signal is getting alarmingly strong.
Month-to-month job changes are noisy, but at this point the signal is getting alarmingly strong.
September 5, 2025 at 5:38 PM
First, we now have 4 months of below-100k net job growth. The 3-month average is 29k and 6-month average is 64k, with all showing an unmistakable slowdown since April of this year.
Month-to-month job changes are noisy, but at this point the signal is getting alarmingly strong.
Month-to-month job changes are noisy, but at this point the signal is getting alarmingly strong.
That quote below was from me, yesterday, expressing concerns about a slowdown in the labor market.
Today's weak jobs report makes things worse.
Here's why. 🧵
Today's weak jobs report makes things worse.
Here's why. 🧵
September 5, 2025 at 5:37 PM
That quote below was from me, yesterday, expressing concerns about a slowdown in the labor market.
Today's weak jobs report makes things worse.
Here's why. 🧵
Today's weak jobs report makes things worse.
Here's why. 🧵
And it did this without harming job prospects of low-wage workers.
journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10....
journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10....
August 29, 2025 at 11:22 AM
And it did this without harming job prospects of low-wage workers.
journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10....
journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10....
Hear me out: Blue books and in class exams are back, but let's be real: penmanship is so passé.
I propose a disruptive, portable, innovation in classroom tech.
I propose a disruptive, portable, innovation in classroom tech.
August 26, 2025 at 11:38 PM
Hear me out: Blue books and in class exams are back, but let's be real: penmanship is so passé.
I propose a disruptive, portable, innovation in classroom tech.
I propose a disruptive, portable, innovation in classroom tech.
After a remarkable stretch when wage inequality fell substantially, wage growth at the bottom is now once again falling behind growth at the top.
This is bad news for working class Americans.
t.co/1hp5EE9up5
This is bad news for working class Americans.
t.co/1hp5EE9up5
August 12, 2025 at 11:52 AM
After a remarkable stretch when wage inequality fell substantially, wage growth at the bottom is now once again falling behind growth at the top.
This is bad news for working class Americans.
t.co/1hp5EE9up5
This is bad news for working class Americans.
t.co/1hp5EE9up5
I can't stress how damaging this is.
Destroys trust in core government statistics.
Destroys trust in core government statistics.
August 1, 2025 at 6:33 PM
I can't stress how damaging this is.
Destroys trust in core government statistics.
Destroys trust in core government statistics.
Very pleased that our local projections dif-in-dif paper is now out in the Journal of Applied Econometrics. Joint with @dgirardi.bsky.social, Jorda, and Taylor.
It's a tool that we think many applied economists will find useful (indeed many already have).
🧵
It's a tool that we think many applied economists will find useful (indeed many already have).
🧵
July 20, 2025 at 3:07 AM
Very pleased that our local projections dif-in-dif paper is now out in the Journal of Applied Econometrics. Joint with @dgirardi.bsky.social, Jorda, and Taylor.
It's a tool that we think many applied economists will find useful (indeed many already have).
🧵
It's a tool that we think many applied economists will find useful (indeed many already have).
🧵
A key finding in our paper: firms engage in considerable amount of "clunky" wage-setting not easily explained by optimizing behavior.
Interestingly, the presence of monopsony power helps explain why: monopsony dulls the loss in profits from making errors in wage setting.
Interestingly, the presence of monopsony power helps explain why: monopsony dulls the loss in profits from making errors in wage setting.
June 7, 2025 at 2:53 PM
A key finding in our paper: firms engage in considerable amount of "clunky" wage-setting not easily explained by optimizing behavior.
Interestingly, the presence of monopsony power helps explain why: monopsony dulls the loss in profits from making errors in wage setting.
Interestingly, the presence of monopsony power helps explain why: monopsony dulls the loss in profits from making errors in wage setting.
Looking forward to posts on how Pope Leo is wrong, that inequality isn't that big of a deal, trade dislocations were small, and real median wages have done just fine for decades.
www.nytimes.com/live/2025/05...
www.nytimes.com/live/2025/05...
May 9, 2025 at 12:44 PM
Looking forward to posts on how Pope Leo is wrong, that inequality isn't that big of a deal, trade dislocations were small, and real median wages have done just fine for decades.
www.nytimes.com/live/2025/05...
www.nytimes.com/live/2025/05...
