Menzie Chinn

@mchinn.bsky.social

5.6K followers 720 following 1.2K posts

Professor of Public Affairs and Economics, University of Wisconsin, and Blogger at Econbrowser. All views are my own.

Menzie David Chinn is a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, co-editor of the Journal of International Money and Finance, and a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research International Finance and Macroeconomics Program. .. more

Economics 93%

Business 4%

Posts Replies Media Videos

Reposted by Antonio Fatás

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 22h

Employment v. output indicators #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Menzie Chinn, Seema Jayachandran

Adam Shapiro @adamshap.bsky.social · 1d

Tariff offset tax

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 1d

GDP at 4.3% q/q AR v. consensus 3.3%! But GDO at 3.4%, and GDP+ at 2.6%. "core GDP" at 3.0%, up fm 2.9% in Q3, but below level of Nov SPF #EconSky @atlantafed.org @philadelphiafed.bsky.social
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 2d

GDP +4.3% in Q3, but GDO up 3.3%, and GDP+ up 2.6%. "Core GDP" up 3.0%... #EconSky

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 2d

James Hamilton: Good news from the GDP report
"The new numbers bring the Econbrowser recession indicator index down to 2.7% ...The latest numbers put to rest the concern that a recession might have started earlier this year." #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 2d

Conference Board confidence 2.5 std devn below Nov., Gallup 3 std devn #EconSky

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 3d

James Hamilton will discuss tomorrow's Q3 GDP "initial release" on econbrowser.com; Bloomberg consensus is 3.3% SAAR #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 3d

Miran is a Fed governor apart #EconSky @clevelandfed.bsky.social
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 3d

2025Q3 growth: Atlanta Fed at 3.5%, GS at 3.6%, St. Louis Fed at 0.4% (all SAAR). Nowcasted "Core GDP" growth drops to 2.4% fm 2.9% in Q2 #EconSky @atlantafed.org @philadelphiafed.bsky.social @stlouisfed.bsky.social @newyorkfed.bsky.social #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Menzie Chinn

Michael Kevane @mkevane.com · 3d

@jayfonsecapr.bsky.social

Ken Vogel @kenvogel.bsky.social · 3d

SCOOP-2: Isabela Herrera donated $2.5m to MAGA Inc. on 12/31/2024.

At the time, her father, a Venezuelan-Italian banker, was being prosecuted for bribing Puerto Rico's governor.

In July, Trump's DOJ authorized a misdemeanor plea deal, overruling career prosecutors who had pushed a harsher sentence

Campaign finance filing showing Isabela Herrera's $2.5 million donation to MAGA Inc.

Justice Department press release about the indictment of Isabela's father, Julio Herrera Velutini.

Bloomberg News story about how Chris Kise, a lawyer who has represented Trump, was hired by Julio Herrera Velutini. Kise approached top Trump Justice Department officials, claiming that Herrera was the victim of a politicized prosecution -- a claim that echoed Trump's own claims about the charges he has faced. In response, Trump's DOJ officials overrode the career prosecutors on the case, brokering a deal with Kise under which Herrera and others charged in the case would be able to plead to misdemeanor offenses that carried far less severe penalties than they would have faced under the initial charges.

Reposted by Michael Kevane

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 3d

@heritagefdn.bsky.social EJ Antoni now heads CDA #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Menzie Chinn, Michael Kevane

Ken Vogel @kenvogel.bsky.social · 3d

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 4d

Real mfg value added up 1.3% 2025Q2/2024Q4, but employment measures all seem to be now trending downward #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 5d

(w/data corrections) Beware the population controls in the household survey derived employment series #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

The Associated Press @apnews.com · 5d

BREAKING: At least 16 files from the Epstein release disappeared from DOJ's webpage, including a photo of Trump, with no explanation.

At least 16 files have disappeared from the DOJ webpage for documents related to Jeffrey Epstein

The Justice Department’s webpage for documents related to sex offender Jeffrey Epstein is missing at least 16 of its files a day after they were released.

bit.ly

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 6d

Republicans remain largely impervious to economic news. There's only slight erosion of expectations #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 6d

Agree, in sense they did it indirectly by not declaring cpi and employment survey workers essential…(but ICE is?)

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 6d

Thanks, I try to make implications clear…

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 7d

How "unlikely" was the November core CPI? #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 8d

Sahm indicator up assuming 4.5% unemployment rate in October, does *not* breach 0.5% threshold (Thanks to Pawel Skrzypczynski points out an error in my prior calculation!). If unemployment at 4.7% in October, then we'd hit threshold #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Menzie Chinn

Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 8d

The next financial crisis is coming ...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/the-...
"The key to preventing a financial crisis is to keep the non-regulated (or poorly regulated) areas of finance out of the financial system."

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 8d

Real retail sales decline again #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 9d

The employment release - negative or positive growth? #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 10d

On the eve of the oct/nov employment release… including Powell’s conjecture on BLS birth/death model, will implement growth exceed prior peak? #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Nonfarm payroll employment estimates through November | Econbrowser

econbrowser.com

Reposted by Menzie Chinn, Aaron Sojourner

George Pearkes @peark.es · 11d

Can't actually find this on the BLS site, suggests we should be cautious on HH survey numbers (eg unemp rate) until '26

*BLS POSTS FAQ ON NOV. HOUSEHOLD EMPLOYMENT SURVEY
*BLS: NOV. HOUSEHOLD SURVEY HAS SLIGHTLY LARGER STANDARD ERROR
*BLS HOUSEHOLD POLL'S HIGHER STANDARD ERRORS MAY LAST A FEW MOS.

Reposted by Stephen M. Walt, Nandita Sharma, Menzie Chinn , and 10 more Stephen M. Walt, Nandita Sharma, Menzie Chinn, Smith, Alan Richardson, Chris Skedgel, Pauline Stafford, Richard M. Carpiano, Karen O’Leary, Nathan P. Kalmoe, Timothy D. McBride, Élisabeth Vallet, Michael B. Mahon

Jess Piper @piperformissouri.bsky.social · 12d

The RFK, jr effect.

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 12d

Various employment paths #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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