Menzie Chinn
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mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn
@mchinn.bsky.social
5.6K followers 720 following 1.2K posts

Professor of Public Affairs and Economics, University of Wisconsin, and Blogger at Econbrowser. All views are my own.

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Menzie David Chinn is a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, co-editor of the Journal of International Money and Finance, and a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research International Finance and Macroeconomics Program. .. more

Economics 93%
Business 4%
Posts Replies Media Videos

Reposted by Antonio Fatás

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 19h
Employment v. output indicators #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Menzie Chinn, Seema Jayachandran

adamshap.bsky.social
Adam Shapiro @adamshap.bsky.social · 1d
Tariff offset tax

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 1d
GDP at 4.3% q/q AR v. consensus 3.3%! But GDO at 3.4%, and GDP+ at 2.6%. "core GDP" at 3.0%, up fm 2.9% in Q3, but below level of Nov SPF #EconSky @atlantafed.org @philadelphiafed.bsky.social
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 2d
GDP +4.3% in Q3, but GDO up 3.3%, and GDP+ up 2.6%. "Core GDP" up 3.0%... #EconSky

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 2d
James Hamilton: Good news from the GDP report
"The new numbers bring the Econbrowser recession indicator index down to 2.7% ...The latest numbers put to rest the concern that a recession might have started earlier this year." #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 2d
Conference Board confidence 2.5 std devn below Nov., Gallup 3 std devn #EconSky

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 3d
James Hamilton will discuss tomorrow's Q3 GDP "initial release" on econbrowser.com; Bloomberg consensus is 3.3% SAAR #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 3d
Miran is a Fed governor apart #EconSky @clevelandfed.bsky.social
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 3d
2025Q3 growth: Atlanta Fed at 3.5%, GS at 3.6%, St. Louis Fed at 0.4% (all SAAR). Nowcasted "Core GDP" growth drops to 2.4% fm 2.9% in Q2 #EconSky @atlantafed.org @philadelphiafed.bsky.social @stlouisfed.bsky.social @newyorkfed.bsky.social #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Menzie Chinn

mkevane.com
Michael Kevane @mkevane.com · 3d
@jayfonsecapr.bsky.social
kenvogel.bsky.social Ken Vogel @kenvogel.bsky.social · 3d
SCOOP-2: Isabela Herrera donated $2.5m to MAGA Inc. on 12/31/2024.

At the time, her father, a Venezuelan-Italian banker, was being prosecuted for bribing Puerto Rico's governor.

In July, Trump's DOJ authorized a misdemeanor plea deal, overruling career prosecutors who had pushed a harsher sentence
Campaign finance filing showing Isabela Herrera's $2.5 million donation to MAGA Inc. Justice Department press release about the indictment of Isabela's father, Julio Herrera Velutini. Bloomberg News story about how Chris Kise, a lawyer who has represented Trump, was hired by Julio Herrera Velutini. Kise approached top Trump Justice Department officials, claiming that Herrera was the victim of a politicized prosecution -- a claim that echoed Trump's own claims about the charges he has faced. In response, Trump's DOJ officials overrode the career prosecutors on the case, brokering a deal with Kise under which Herrera and others charged in the case would be able to plead to misdemeanor offenses that carried far less severe penalties than they would have faced under the initial charges.

Reposted by Michael Kevane

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 3d
@heritagefdn.bsky.social EJ Antoni now heads CDA #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Menzie Chinn, Michael Kevane

kenvogel.bsky.social
Ken Vogel @kenvogel.bsky.social · 3d
SCOOP-2: Isabela Herrera donated $2.5m to MAGA Inc. on 12/31/2024.

At the time, her father, a Venezuelan-Italian banker, was being prosecuted for bribing Puerto Rico's governor.

In July, Trump's DOJ authorized a misdemeanor plea deal, overruling career prosecutors who had pushed a harsher sentence
Campaign finance filing showing Isabela Herrera's $2.5 million donation to MAGA Inc. Justice Department press release about the indictment of Isabela's father, Julio Herrera Velutini. Bloomberg News story about how Chris Kise, a lawyer who has represented Trump, was hired by Julio Herrera Velutini. Kise approached top Trump Justice Department officials, claiming that Herrera was the victim of a politicized prosecution -- a claim that echoed Trump's own claims about the charges he has faced. In response, Trump's DOJ officials overrode the career prosecutors on the case, brokering a deal with Kise under which Herrera and others charged in the case would be able to plead to misdemeanor offenses that carried far less severe penalties than they would have faced under the initial charges.

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 4d
Real mfg value added up 1.3% 2025Q2/2024Q4, but employment measures all seem to be now trending downward #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 5d
(w/data corrections) Beware the population controls in the household survey derived employment series #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Nandita Sharma, Menzie Chinn, David M. Farrell , and 19 more

apnews.com
The Associated Press @apnews.com · 5d
BREAKING: At least 16 files from the Epstein release disappeared from DOJ's webpage, including a photo of Trump, with no explanation.
At least 16 files have disappeared from the DOJ webpage for documents related to Jeffrey Epstein
The Justice Department’s webpage for documents related to sex offender Jeffrey Epstein is missing at least 16 of its files a day after they were released.
bit.ly

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 6d
Republicans remain largely impervious to economic news. There's only slight erosion of expectations #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 6d
Agree, in sense they did it indirectly by not declaring cpi and employment survey workers essential…(but ICE is?)

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 6d
Thanks, I try to make implications clear…

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 7d
How "unlikely" was the November core CPI? #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 8d
Sahm indicator up assuming 4.5% unemployment rate in October, does *not* breach 0.5% threshold (Thanks to Pawel Skrzypczynski points out an error in my prior calculation!). If unemployment at 4.7% in October, then we'd hit threshold #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Menzie Chinn

calculatedrisk.bsky.social
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 8d
The next financial crisis is coming ...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/the-...
"The key to preventing a financial crisis is to keep the non-regulated (or poorly regulated) areas of finance out of the financial system."

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 8d
Real retail sales decline again #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 9d
The employment release - negative or positive growth? #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 10d
On the eve of the oct/nov employment release… including Powell’s conjecture on BLS birth/death model, will implement growth exceed prior peak? #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Nonfarm payroll employment estimates through November | Econbrowser
econbrowser.com

Reposted by Menzie Chinn, Aaron Sojourner

peark.es
George Pearkes @peark.es · 10d
Can't actually find this on the BLS site, suggests we should be cautious on HH survey numbers (eg unemp rate) until '26

*BLS POSTS FAQ ON NOV. HOUSEHOLD EMPLOYMENT SURVEY
*BLS: NOV. HOUSEHOLD SURVEY HAS SLIGHTLY LARGER STANDARD ERROR
*BLS HOUSEHOLD POLL'S HIGHER STANDARD ERRORS MAY LAST A FEW MOS.

Reposted by Stephen M. Walt, Nandita Sharma, Menzie Chinn , and 10 more

piperformissouri.bsky.social
Jess Piper @piperformissouri.bsky.social · 12d
The RFK, jr effect.

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 12d
Various employment paths #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...