Menzie Chinn
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mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn
@mchinn.bsky.social
5.5K followers 720 following 1.1K posts
Professor of Public Affairs and Economics, University of Wisconsin, and Blogger at Econbrowser. All views are my own.
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mchinn.bsky.social
@calculatedrisk.bsky.social on negative equity #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 11, 2025 at 2:09 AM
mchinn.bsky.social
EPU spikes...why? #EconSky

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November 9, 2025 at 5:12 AM
mchinn.bsky.social
In 2025, Republican assessment of current conditions are impervious to bad news, acc u.Mich survey #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 8, 2025 at 11:52 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
U.Mich sentiment (current, expectations, overall) surprise downside, descend to near record levels. Not to fear, as The Repulican agenda is "delivering an economic miracle”... #EconSky
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November 8, 2025 at 8:16 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
Nowcasting BLS private NFP #EconSky
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November 6, 2025 at 9:16 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
Digging up my high school reading, "DonaldTrump Rex" is gouging out his own (economic) eyes (now as farce rather than tragedy); no patricide and incest implied! #EconSky @aaronsojourner.org

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November 6, 2025 at 8:39 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
High interest rates vs. policy uncertainty and the downturn in residential investment #EconSky

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November 6, 2025 at 6:15 AM
mchinn.bsky.social
Update: If DRP impact shows up in October govt employment as -150K... @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social says 150K-200K is range #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 5, 2025 at 10:39 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
Yeesh - EJ Antoni is Truflation's latex salesman! #EconSky
I hope he's learned not to deflate GDP using a consumption price index econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 5, 2025 at 10:35 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
ADP private NFP +42K v consensus +32K, implies BLS total NFP at -58K #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 5, 2025 at 5:02 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
(Metaphorically) Admin on employment data: "You want the truth? You can't handle the truth!" #EconSky
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November 4, 2025 at 3:18 AM
mchinn.bsky.social
Why? Has there been "news"? #EconSky
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November 3, 2025 at 8:17 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
Bloomberg consensus for ADP October release is +28K #EconSky
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November 2, 2025 at 7:48 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
Using the 2-quarter rule for recessions, EJ Antoni and Peter St. Onge should have declared the recession of 2022 onward "over" as of 2022Q3 (as opposed to ongoing, as they did in *2024*) #EconSky
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November 2, 2025 at 7:02 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
The recession of 2022 is over! EJ Antoni, Peter St. Onge, #HeritageFoundation #EconSky
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November 1, 2025 at 11:52 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
Lewis, Mertens, Stock WEI; Baumeister, Leiva-Leon, Sims WECI both down relative to "Liberation Day" #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
October 31, 2025 at 8:16 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
Auto delinquencies as a business cycle indicator - a caveat #Econsky Fitch
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October 31, 2025 at 3:25 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
What's at stake with expanded tax credits for ACA premia? Cost, coverage, etc. #Econsky
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October 30, 2025 at 7:02 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
Soybeans, again. To mix metaphors, 12 bn MMT soybeans is "peanuts" against backdrop of slumping farm non-govt cash income. Given Trump's "Phase 1"US-China deal, I'm gonna believe it when I see it... #EconSky
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October 30, 2025 at 4:13 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
So, Admin says no October CPI release for you! Alberto Cavallo provides some insight... #EconSky

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October 29, 2025 at 7:18 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
It's almost as if some representatives vote against their constituents' interests. SNAP participation edition #EconSky
October 29, 2025 at 4:26 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
Everyday prices up 2.2% relative to January. Where's that price decrease I was promised? #EconSky

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October 29, 2025 at 4:18 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
What would drive Q4 GDP growth negative? 1 month no SNAP, 6 week govt shutdown, w/no backpay (in violation of law). No accounting for uncertainty effects #EconSky
October 28, 2025 at 11:35 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
Economic confidence down slightly -- higher income groups remain more optimistic #EconSky
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October 28, 2025 at 6:50 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
Macro implications of ceasing SNAP disbursements...if I didn't know better, I'd think Trump/Vought is trying to drive the economy into recession #EconSky
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October 28, 2025 at 6:17 PM