Menzie Chinn
mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn
@mchinn.bsky.social
Professor of Public Affairs and Economics, University of Wisconsin, and Blogger at Econbrowser. All views are my own.
November 11, 2025 at 2:09 AM
Reposted by Menzie Chinn
“If the person is a U.S. citizen or otherwise lawfully in the United States, that individual will be free to go after the brief encounter.”—Brett Kavanaugh #AbuseofPowerWatch
📍 𝐂𝐇𝐈𝐂𝐀𝐆𝐎, 𝐈𝐋𝐋𝐈𝐍𝐎𝐈𝐒:

A U.S. citizen, Dayanne Figueroa, was dragged from her car by masked federal agents after her vehicle collided with an unmarked ICE vehicle—she was held for hours without charge and left shaken from the encounter. #AbuseofPowerWatch
Chicago woman dragged out of her car after colliding with ICE demands accountability
The arrest of Dayanne Figueroa highlights growing concerns about the use of force against U.S. citizens and due process. She was released after a few hours without charges.
www.chicagotribune.com
November 10, 2025 at 4:18 PM
Reposted by Menzie Chinn
Negative equity increasing especially in Florida and parts of Texas.
November 10, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Reposted by Menzie Chinn
It’s not even working how they want. Trump’s numbers are tanking. He’s lost 3 net over last 3 weeks and the trajectory has shifted to the bottom falling out. fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
November 9, 2025 at 5:48 PM
Reposted by Menzie Chinn
November 9, 2025 at 3:00 PM
November 9, 2025 at 5:12 AM
In 2025, Republican assessment of current conditions are impervious to bad news, acc u.Mich survey #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 8, 2025 at 11:52 PM
Reposted by Menzie Chinn
U.Mich sentiment (current, expectations, overall) surprise downside, descend to near record levels. Not to fear, as The Repulican agenda is "delivering an economic miracle”... #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 8, 2025 at 8:16 PM
Reposted by Menzie Chinn
"National emergency" 🤔🧐

on.ft.com/49BOOUA
November 5, 2025 at 10:15 PM
Nowcasting BLS private NFP #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 6, 2025 at 9:16 PM
Digging up my high school reading, "DonaldTrump Rex" is gouging out his own (economic) eyes (now as farce rather than tragedy); no patricide and incest implied! #EconSky @aaronsojourner.org

econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 6, 2025 at 8:39 PM
Reposted by Menzie Chinn
Every month for the last 77 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has estimated Americans' unemployment rate

This streak dies tomorrow

Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months

This blind spot will remain forever
Here's the planned BLS data release schedule for Nov 2025.

On Tues, it couldn't release Sept job openings, hires, layoffs and firings data.

This morning, it couldn't release 2025Q3 business Productivity and Costs data.

Tomorrow, it can't release Oct 2025 #JobsReport
www.bls.gov/schedule/202...
November 6, 2025 at 2:34 PM
High interest rates vs. policy uncertainty and the downturn in residential investment #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 6, 2025 at 6:15 AM
Update: If DRP impact shows up in October govt employment as -150K... @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social says 150K-200K is range #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 5, 2025 at 10:39 PM
Yeesh - EJ Antoni is Truflation's latex salesman! #EconSky
I hope he's learned not to deflate GDP using a consumption price index econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 5, 2025 at 10:35 PM
Thanks! I defer to you on this matter. I'll adjust the post accordingly...
150-200K federal workers exited payroll on Sept 30 (drp, not the shutdown) so BLS total NFP bound to be lower than -58K
November 5, 2025 at 6:04 PM
ADP private NFP +42K v consensus +32K, implies BLS total NFP at -58K #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 5, 2025 at 5:02 PM
(Metaphorically) Admin on employment data: "You want the truth? You can't handle the truth!" #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 4, 2025 at 3:18 AM
Why? Has there been "news"? #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 3, 2025 at 8:17 PM
Kalshi betting today 9% government doesn't open before next year
kalshi.com/markets/kxgo...
Implausible? Not if the sole reason for closure is Epstein
kalshi.com
November 2, 2025 at 7:51 PM
Bloomberg consensus for ADP October release is +28K #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 2, 2025 at 7:48 PM
Using the 2-quarter rule for recessions, EJ Antoni and Peter St. Onge should have declared the recession of 2022 onward "over" as of 2022Q3 (as opposed to ongoing, as they did in *2024*) #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 2, 2025 at 7:02 PM
Jeffrey Frankel on "Abundance" #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Guest Contribution: “Abundance” | Econbrowser
econbrowser.com
November 2, 2025 at 6:36 PM