Bill McBride
@calculatedrisk.bsky.social
Author of Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter at http://calculatedrisk.substack.com and Economic Weekly at https://economicweekly.substack.com/
Goldman on Q4 GDP: "Core retail sales declined 0.1% in December, below expectations, and the level of core retail sales was revised down by 0.4% in November. We lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.4pp to +1.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized)."
February 10, 2026 at 5:32 PM
Goldman on Q4 GDP: "Core retail sales declined 0.1% in December, below expectations, and the level of core retail sales was revised down by 0.4% in November. We lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.4pp to +1.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized)."
Q4 NY Fed Report: Credit Scores for Mortgages Still Solid, Foreclosures Increase Slightly
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/q4-ny-fed-...
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/q4-ny-fed-...
Q4 NY Fed Report: Credit Scores for Mortgages Still Solid, Foreclosures Increase Slightly
The NY Fed released the Q4 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit this morning.
calculatedrisk.substack.com
February 10, 2026 at 4:25 PM
Q4 NY Fed Report: Credit Scores for Mortgages Still Solid, Foreclosures Increase Slightly
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/q4-ny-fed-...
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/q4-ny-fed-...
Consensus was +0.5% weak
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $735.0 billion, virtually unchanged from the previous month... www.census.gov/retail/sales...
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $735.0 billion, virtually unchanged from the previous month... www.census.gov/retail/sales...
February 10, 2026 at 1:42 PM
Consensus was +0.5% weak
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $735.0 billion, virtually unchanged from the previous month... www.census.gov/retail/sales...
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $735.0 billion, virtually unchanged from the previous month... www.census.gov/retail/sales...
February 10, 2026 at 1:24 AM
I don’t think they should use the word “mask” in a press release.
February 10, 2026 at 12:15 AM
I don’t think they should use the word “mask” in a press release.
February ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Home price growth slowed to its weakest pace in more than a decade"
Several Southern markets now have 10%+ mortgaged homes underwater
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/february-i...
Several Southern markets now have 10%+ mortgaged homes underwater
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/february-i...
February ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Home price growth slowed to its weakest pace in more than a decade"
Several Southern markets now have 10%+ mortgaged homes underwater
calculatedrisk.substack.com
February 9, 2026 at 4:19 PM
February ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Home price growth slowed to its weakest pace in more than a decade"
Several Southern markets now have 10%+ mortgaged homes underwater
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/february-i...
Several Southern markets now have 10%+ mortgaged homes underwater
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/february-i...
Altos: Inventory down 1.2% week-over-week (January and February are always low inventory months)
February 9, 2026 at 2:27 PM
Altos: Inventory down 1.2% week-over-week (January and February are always low inventory months)
Reposted by Bill McBride
This mountain snow in the U.S. West is desperately needed--snowpack has reached record low levels for time of year in many locations & will fall even further behind until early next wk, when there will likely be *some* recovery. TBD just how much; the existing deficits are huge.
February 6, 2026 at 3:48 PM
This mountain snow in the U.S. West is desperately needed--snowpack has reached record low levels for time of year in many locations & will fall even further behind until early next wk, when there will likely be *some* recovery. TBD just how much; the existing deficits are huge.
AAR: "U.S. rail intermodal shipments fell 3.5% in January, their fifth straight year‑over‑year decrease as weaker port activity, softer goods demand, and ample trucking capacity continued to weigh on intermodal volumes."
February 6, 2026 at 9:03 PM
AAR: "U.S. rail intermodal shipments fell 3.5% in January, their fifth straight year‑over‑year decrease as weaker port activity, softer goods demand, and ample trucking capacity continued to weigh on intermodal volumes."
Economic Weekly February 6, 2026
economicweekly.substack.com/p/economic-w...
The key reports this week are the January employment report (delayed from last week), December retail sales (still catching up), January consumer price index and January existing home sales.
economicweekly.substack.com/p/economic-w...
The key reports this week are the January employment report (delayed from last week), December retail sales (still catching up), January consumer price index and January existing home sales.
Economic Weekly February 6, 2026
This weekly email has three parts: the Schedule of economic data for the following week, a Review of data for the previous week, and a Commentary on a current topic.
economicweekly.substack.com
February 6, 2026 at 7:25 PM
Economic Weekly February 6, 2026
economicweekly.substack.com/p/economic-w...
The key reports this week are the January employment report (delayed from last week), December retail sales (still catching up), January consumer price index and January existing home sales.
economicweekly.substack.com/p/economic-w...
The key reports this week are the January employment report (delayed from last week), December retail sales (still catching up), January consumer price index and January existing home sales.
The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 210.5, reflecting a 2.4% increase for wholesale used-vehicle prices (adjusted for mix, mileage, and seasonality) compared to January 2025. www.coxautoinc.com/insights-hub...
Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index: January 2026 Trends - Cox Automotive Inc.
The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) is a trusted benchmark for tracking wholesale used-vehicle prices in the U.S., which helps dealers and analysts gauge market shifts and anticipate retail t...
www.coxautoinc.com
February 6, 2026 at 4:11 PM
The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 210.5, reflecting a 2.4% increase for wholesale used-vehicle prices (adjusted for mix, mileage, and seasonality) compared to January 2025. www.coxautoinc.com/insights-hub...
I'm surprised the consensus for existing home sales in January is for a solid year-over-year gain (around +4%). With the NAR reporting much earlier each month this year, it is hard to gather enough local data to know for sure - but I think sales were down YoY.
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/1st-look-a...
Most of the areas hit hard by “Winter Storm Fern” have not reported yet ... so seasonally adjusted existing home sales in January could be weaker than this early data suggests.
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/1st-look-a...
Most of the areas hit hard by “Winter Storm Fern” have not reported yet ... so seasonally adjusted existing home sales in January could be weaker than this early data suggests.
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January
Most of the areas hit hard by “Winter Storm Fern” have not reported yet, and it is likely some closings were delayed in these areas, so seasonally adjusted existing home sales in January could be weak...
calculatedrisk.substack.com
February 6, 2026 at 3:34 PM
I'm surprised the consensus for existing home sales in January is for a solid year-over-year gain (around +4%). With the NAR reporting much earlier each month this year, it is hard to gather enough local data to know for sure - but I think sales were down YoY.
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/1st-look-a...
Most of the areas hit hard by “Winter Storm Fern” have not reported yet ... so seasonally adjusted existing home sales in January could be weaker than this early data suggests.
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/1st-look-a...
Most of the areas hit hard by “Winter Storm Fern” have not reported yet ... so seasonally adjusted existing home sales in January could be weaker than this early data suggests.
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January
Most of the areas hit hard by “Winter Storm Fern” have not reported yet, and it is likely some closings were delayed in these areas, so seasonally adjusted existing home sales in January could be weak...
calculatedrisk.substack.com
February 6, 2026 at 2:26 PM
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/1st-look-a...
Most of the areas hit hard by “Winter Storm Fern” have not reported yet ... so seasonally adjusted existing home sales in January could be weaker than this early data suggests.
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/1st-look-a...
Most of the areas hit hard by “Winter Storm Fern” have not reported yet ... so seasonally adjusted existing home sales in January could be weaker than this early data suggests.
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I’m referring to sales. There are different stakeholders in the market - buyers, sellers, etc. Sales are important for people whose income is related to the number of transactions, like real estate agents, escrow officers, appraisers, mortgage brokers, and more.
I’m referring to sales. There are different stakeholders in the market - buyers, sellers, etc. Sales are important for people whose income is related to the number of transactions, like real estate agents, escrow officers, appraisers, mortgage brokers, and more.
February 6, 2026 at 5:06 AM
Thanks for subscribing!
I’m referring to sales. There are different stakeholders in the market - buyers, sellers, etc. Sales are important for people whose income is related to the number of transactions, like real estate agents, escrow officers, appraisers, mortgage brokers, and more.
I’m referring to sales. There are different stakeholders in the market - buyers, sellers, etc. Sales are important for people whose income is related to the number of transactions, like real estate agents, escrow officers, appraisers, mortgage brokers, and more.
The January housing numbers are abysmal. I’ll have more tomorrow, but it wasn’t all due to the severe winter storm.
February 6, 2026 at 2:11 AM
The January housing numbers are abysmal. I’ll have more tomorrow, but it wasn’t all due to the severe winter storm.
Bitcoin still ~$67,000 above eventual price.
February 5, 2026 at 4:12 PM
Bitcoin still ~$67,000 above eventual price.
Job Openings down 13% YoY
www.bls.gov/news.release...
www.bls.gov/news.release...
February 5, 2026 at 3:22 PM
Job Openings down 13% YoY
www.bls.gov/news.release...
www.bls.gov/news.release...
"In the week ending January 31, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 231,000, an increase of
22,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 209,000. The 4-week moving average was 212,250, an increase of
6,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 206,250."
22,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 209,000. The 4-week moving average was 212,250, an increase of
6,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 206,250."
February 5, 2026 at 1:49 PM
"In the week ending January 31, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 231,000, an increase of
22,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 209,000. The 4-week moving average was 212,250, an increase of
6,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 206,250."
22,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 209,000. The 4-week moving average was 212,250, an increase of
6,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 206,250."
Lawler: Update on GSEs and Early Read on Bank Response
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-upd...
This is related to the announcement that the GSEs would buy $200 billion of MBS.
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-upd...
This is related to the announcement that the GSEs would buy $200 billion of MBS.
Lawler: Update on GSEs and Early Read on Bank Response
Here is some data and comments from housing economist Tom Lawler as a follow up to his note: Lawler: Some Comments About Upcoming GSE MBS Purchases and an Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads
calculatedrisk.substack.com
February 4, 2026 at 11:51 PM
Lawler: Update on GSEs and Early Read on Bank Response
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-upd...
This is related to the announcement that the GSEs would buy $200 billion of MBS.
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-upd...
This is related to the announcement that the GSEs would buy $200 billion of MBS.
Schedule update:
Thursday, February 05, 2026 10:00 AM Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for December 2025
Wednesday, February 11, 2026 08:30 AM Employment Situation for January 2026
Thursday, February 05, 2026 10:00 AM Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for December 2025
Wednesday, February 11, 2026 08:30 AM Employment Situation for January 2026
February 4, 2026 at 6:52 PM
Schedule update:
Thursday, February 05, 2026 10:00 AM Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for December 2025
Wednesday, February 11, 2026 08:30 AM Employment Situation for January 2026
Thursday, February 05, 2026 10:00 AM Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for December 2025
Wednesday, February 11, 2026 08:30 AM Employment Situation for January 2026
January Vehicle Sales down 6.7% MoM (SA). Weakest since supply chain issues in 2022 (likely impacted by weather).
February 4, 2026 at 3:55 PM
January Vehicle Sales down 6.7% MoM (SA). Weakest since supply chain issues in 2022 (likely impacted by weather).
Bankruptcy Filings Rise 11 Percent www.uscourts.gov/data-news/ju...
Bankruptcy Filings Rise 11 Percent
Total bankruptcy filings rose 11 percent, with increases in both business and non-business bankruptcies, in the twelve-month period ending Dec. 31, 2025.
www.uscourts.gov
February 4, 2026 at 3:44 PM
Bankruptcy Filings Rise 11 Percent www.uscourts.gov/data-news/ju...
Goldman: "We do not place much weight on the ADP miss because of ADP’s limited correlation with BLS private payrolls over the last few years. We left our forecast for January nonfarm payroll growth unchanged at +45k, below consensus of +71k."
February 4, 2026 at 2:39 PM
Goldman: "We do not place much weight on the ADP miss because of ADP’s limited correlation with BLS private payrolls over the last few years. We left our forecast for January nonfarm payroll growth unchanged at +45k, below consensus of +71k."
MBA: "The seasonally adjusted Purchase
Index decreased 14 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent
compared with the previous week and was 4 percent higher than the same week one year ago."
Index decreased 14 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent
compared with the previous week and was 4 percent higher than the same week one year ago."
February 4, 2026 at 1:29 PM
MBA: "The seasonally adjusted Purchase
Index decreased 14 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent
compared with the previous week and was 4 percent higher than the same week one year ago."
Index decreased 14 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent
compared with the previous week and was 4 percent higher than the same week one year ago."
John Burns: Multifamily at an inflection point: 2026 consequences and opportunities
“Struggling properties: Expect forced sales and meaningful equity losses among newer buyers and syndicators from the last cycle, particularly concentrated in assets with weak performance …”
“Struggling properties: Expect forced sales and meaningful equity losses among newer buyers and syndicators from the last cycle, particularly concentrated in assets with weak performance …”
February 3, 2026 at 11:54 PM
John Burns: Multifamily at an inflection point: 2026 consequences and opportunities
“Struggling properties: Expect forced sales and meaningful equity losses among newer buyers and syndicators from the last cycle, particularly concentrated in assets with weak performance …”
“Struggling properties: Expect forced sales and meaningful equity losses among newer buyers and syndicators from the last cycle, particularly concentrated in assets with weak performance …”