Bill McBride
@calculatedrisk.bsky.social
Author of Calculated Risk economics blog. https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/
Real Estate Newsletter at http://calculatedrisk.substack.com
Real Estate Newsletter at http://calculatedrisk.substack.com
Question #8 for 2026: How much will Residential investment change in 2026? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2026?
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/question-8...
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/question-8...
Question #8 for 2026: How much will Residential investment change in 2026? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2026?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2026. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I’...
calculatedrisk.substack.com
December 26, 2025 at 1:38 PM
Question #8 for 2026: How much will Residential investment change in 2026? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2026?
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/question-8...
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/question-8...
A report card for the Hype Man (quotes from January 2025):
1) "we'll have unsupervised FSD in almost every market this year"
Grade: Fail
2) "Teslas will be driving "in the wild" with no oversight in Austin by June"
Grade: Fail
1/2
1) "we'll have unsupervised FSD in almost every market this year"
Grade: Fail
2) "Teslas will be driving "in the wild" with no oversight in Austin by June"
Grade: Fail
1/2
December 24, 2025 at 6:43 PM
A report card for the Hype Man (quotes from January 2025):
1) "we'll have unsupervised FSD in almost every market this year"
Grade: Fail
2) "Teslas will be driving "in the wild" with no oversight in Austin by June"
Grade: Fail
1/2
1) "we'll have unsupervised FSD in almost every market this year"
Grade: Fail
2) "Teslas will be driving "in the wild" with no oversight in Austin by June"
Grade: Fail
1/2
Question #9 for 2026: What will happen with house prices in 2026?
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/question-9...
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/question-9...
Question #9 for 2026: What will happen with house prices in 2026?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2026. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I’...
calculatedrisk.substack.com
December 24, 2025 at 4:28 PM
Question #9 for 2026: What will happen with house prices in 2026?
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/question-9...
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/question-9...
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 214,000
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/week...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/week...
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 214,000
The DOL reported : In the week ending December 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 214,000 , a decrease of 1...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
December 24, 2025 at 1:33 PM
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 214,000
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/week...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/week...
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/mba-...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/mba-...
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey ortgage applications decreased 5.0 percent from one week earlier, a...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
December 24, 2025 at 1:15 PM
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/mba-...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/mba-...
Goldman: “We expect core PCE inflation to slow to 2.1% by the end of 2026 as tariff pass-through fades and wage growth and shelter inflation continue to fall.”
December 24, 2025 at 12:26 AM
Goldman: “We expect core PCE inflation to slow to 2.1% by the end of 2026 as tariff pass-through fades and wage growth and shelter inflation continue to fall.”
Goldman: “We expect the unemployment rate to stabilize at 4.5% as hiring picks up on the back of stronger final demand growth.”
December 24, 2025 at 12:25 AM
Goldman: “We expect the unemployment rate to stabilize at 4.5% as hiring picks up on the back of stronger final demand growth.”
Goldman: “We expect job growth to rebound from the recent pace of 32k per month to 70k in 2026, as a diminished tariff drag and a fiscal boost fuel a broader pickup in GDP growth.”
December 24, 2025 at 12:23 AM
Goldman: “We expect job growth to rebound from the recent pace of 32k per month to 70k in 2026, as a diminished tariff drag and a fiscal boost fuel a broader pickup in GDP growth.”
Final Look at Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/final-look...
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/final-look...
Final Look at Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales
After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR.
calculatedrisk.substack.com
December 23, 2025 at 4:15 PM
Final Look at Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/final-look...
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/final-look...
Industrial Production Increased 0.2% in November; Declined 0.1% in October
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/indu...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/indu...
Industrial Production Increased 0.2% in November; Declined 0.1% in October
From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization This release includes preliminary estimates for industrial production (IP) and...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
December 23, 2025 at 2:25 PM
Industrial Production Increased 0.2% in November; Declined 0.1% in October
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/indu...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/indu...
BEA: Real GDP increased at 4.3% Annualized Rate in Q3
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/bea-...
PCE increased at a 3.5% annual rate, and residential investment decreased at a 5.1% rate. The initial Q3 GDP report, with 4.3% annualized increase, was above expectations.
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/bea-...
PCE increased at a 3.5% annual rate, and residential investment decreased at a 5.1% rate. The initial Q3 GDP report, with 4.3% annualized increase, was above expectations.
December 23, 2025 at 1:36 PM
BEA: Real GDP increased at 4.3% Annualized Rate in Q3
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/bea-...
PCE increased at a 3.5% annual rate, and residential investment decreased at a 5.1% rate. The initial Q3 GDP report, with 4.3% annualized increase, was above expectations.
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/bea-...
PCE increased at a 3.5% annual rate, and residential investment decreased at a 5.1% rate. The initial Q3 GDP report, with 4.3% annualized increase, was above expectations.
"The 30-year fixed mortgage makes the U.S. housing market unique. It brings stability but it heavily anchors homeowners in place. Instead of prices adjusting when demand drops, sellers hunker down...This makes the U.S. housing cycle about volume, not prices." Cotality Principal Economist Thom Malone
December 22, 2025 at 9:08 PM
"The 30-year fixed mortgage makes the U.S. housing market unique. It brings stability but it heavily anchors homeowners in place. Instead of prices adjusting when demand drops, sellers hunker down...This makes the U.S. housing cycle about volume, not prices." Cotality Principal Economist Thom Malone
Question #10 for 2026: Will inventory increase further in 2026?
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/question-1...
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/question-1...
Question #10 for 2026: Will inventory increase further in 2026?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2026. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I’...
calculatedrisk.substack.com
December 22, 2025 at 4:01 PM
Question #10 for 2026: Will inventory increase further in 2026?
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/question-1...
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/question-1...
Housing December 22nd Weekly Update: Inventory Down 2.3% Week-over-week
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/hous...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/hous...
Housing December 22nd Weekly Update: Inventory Down 2.3% Week-over-week
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.3% week-over-week. Inventory usually declines sharply during the holiday seaso...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
December 22, 2025 at 1:13 PM
Housing December 22nd Weekly Update: Inventory Down 2.3% Week-over-week
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/hous...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/hous...
Lawler: Another Strange NAR Reading on Northeast Median Sales Prices calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-ano...
Lawler: Another Strange NAR Reading on Northeast Median Sales Prices
From housing economist Tom Lawler:
calculatedrisk.substack.com
December 19, 2025 at 8:28 PM
Lawler: Another Strange NAR Reading on Northeast Median Sales Prices calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-ano...
Reposted by Bill McBride
I want to raise a few issues with this ...
- The unemployment rate was 4.6% in Nov 2025.
- There are 982,000 more unemployed people in Nov 2025 than in Jan 2025.
- There are 271,000 fewer federal government employees.
- 982,000 > 271,000. More than 3 times more unemployed.
- The unemployment rate was 4.6% in Nov 2025.
- There are 982,000 more unemployed people in Nov 2025 than in Jan 2025.
- There are 271,000 fewer federal government employees.
- 982,000 > 271,000. More than 3 times more unemployed.
December 19, 2025 at 6:41 PM
I want to raise a few issues with this ...
- The unemployment rate was 4.6% in Nov 2025.
- There are 982,000 more unemployed people in Nov 2025 than in Jan 2025.
- There are 271,000 fewer federal government employees.
- 982,000 > 271,000. More than 3 times more unemployed.
- The unemployment rate was 4.6% in Nov 2025.
- There are 982,000 more unemployed people in Nov 2025 than in Jan 2025.
- There are 271,000 fewer federal government employees.
- 982,000 > 271,000. More than 3 times more unemployed.
Existing home sales 2024 vs 2025:
YTD 2024: 3,733,000
YTD 2025: 3,714,000 down 0.5%
Last year was the lowest since 1995. It will be close this year!
YTD 2024: 3,733,000
YTD 2025: 3,714,000 down 0.5%
Last year was the lowest since 1995. It will be close this year!
Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.13 million SAAR in November calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nar-existi...
December 19, 2025 at 4:08 PM
Existing home sales 2024 vs 2025:
YTD 2024: 3,733,000
YTD 2025: 3,714,000 down 0.5%
Last year was the lowest since 1995. It will be close this year!
YTD 2024: 3,733,000
YTD 2025: 3,714,000 down 0.5%
Last year was the lowest since 1995. It will be close this year!
Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.13 million SAAR in November calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nar-existi...
December 19, 2025 at 4:04 PM
Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.13 million SAAR in November calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nar-existi...
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.13 million SAAR in November
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/nar-...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/nar-...
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.13 million SAAR in November
From the NAR: NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 0.5% Increase in November Month-over-month • 0.5% increase in existing-home sales – seas...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
December 19, 2025 at 3:12 PM
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.13 million SAAR in November
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/nar-...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/nar-...
My view of the most important economic indicators:
GDP
Employment Report
Inflation (CPI & PCE)
Housing Starts
New Home Sales
Q3 GDP will be released next week.
But we are still missing Starts and new home sales for Sept, Oct and Nov - with no updated schedule.
GDP
Employment Report
Inflation (CPI & PCE)
Housing Starts
New Home Sales
Q3 GDP will be released next week.
But we are still missing Starts and new home sales for Sept, Oct and Nov - with no updated schedule.
December 19, 2025 at 1:48 PM
My view of the most important economic indicators:
GDP
Employment Report
Inflation (CPI & PCE)
Housing Starts
New Home Sales
Q3 GDP will be released next week.
But we are still missing Starts and new home sales for Sept, Oct and Nov - with no updated schedule.
GDP
Employment Report
Inflation (CPI & PCE)
Housing Starts
New Home Sales
Q3 GDP will be released next week.
But we are still missing Starts and new home sales for Sept, Oct and Nov - with no updated schedule.
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 1.6% Year-over-year
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/hote...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/hote...
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 1.6% Year-over-year
Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism. The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupanc...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
December 19, 2025 at 12:59 PM
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 1.6% Year-over-year
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/hote...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/hote...
Goldman forecast for 2026 GDP:
“The US is likely to outperform substantially (2.6% vs 2.0% consensus) because of reduced tariff drag, tax cuts, and easier financial conditions.”
“The US is likely to outperform substantially (2.6% vs 2.0% consensus) because of reduced tariff drag, tax cuts, and easier financial conditions.”
December 18, 2025 at 8:22 PM
Goldman forecast for 2026 GDP:
“The US is likely to outperform substantially (2.6% vs 2.0% consensus) because of reduced tariff drag, tax cuts, and easier financial conditions.”
“The US is likely to outperform substantially (2.6% vs 2.0% consensus) because of reduced tariff drag, tax cuts, and easier financial conditions.”
Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2025
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/revi...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/revi...
Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2025
At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2025) . I followed up with a brief post on each question. H...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
December 18, 2025 at 5:46 PM
Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2025
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/revi...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/revi...
YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/yoy-...
SPECIAL NOTE: October prices (data not collected) were averaged between September and November for these graphs.
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/yoy-...
SPECIAL NOTE: October prices (data not collected) were averaged between September and November for these graphs.
YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter
SPECIAL NOTE: October prices (data no collected) were averaged between September and November for these graphs. Here are a few measures of i...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
December 18, 2025 at 2:10 PM
YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/yoy-...
SPECIAL NOTE: October prices (data not collected) were averaged between September and November for these graphs.
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/yoy-...
SPECIAL NOTE: October prices (data not collected) were averaged between September and November for these graphs.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 224,000
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/week...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/week...
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 224,000
The DOL reported : In the week ending December 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 224,000, a decrease of 13...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
December 18, 2025 at 1:38 PM
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 224,000
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/week...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/week...