Bill McBride
@calculatedrisk.bsky.social
Author of Calculated Risk economics blog. https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/
Real Estate Newsletter at http://calculatedrisk.substack.com
Real Estate Newsletter at http://calculatedrisk.substack.com
Negative equity increasing especially in Florida and parts of Texas.
November 10, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Negative equity increasing especially in Florida and parts of Texas.
November ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices "Firmed" in October, Up 0.9% Year-over-year
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/november-i...
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/november-i...
November ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices "Firmed" in October, Up 0.9% Year-over-year
Cape Coral has a high level of Negative Equity
calculatedrisk.substack.com
November 10, 2025 at 4:14 PM
November ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices "Firmed" in October, Up 0.9% Year-over-year
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/november-i...
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/november-i...
Housing November 10th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 1.7% Week-over-week
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/hous...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/hous...
Housing November 10th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 1.7% Week-over-week
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.7% week-over-week. Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then de...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
November 10, 2025 at 1:16 PM
Housing November 10th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 1.7% Week-over-week
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/hous...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/hous...
AAR Rail Traffic in October: Carloads Flat, Intermodal Down
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/aar-...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/aar-...
AAR Rail Traffic in October: Carloads Flat, Intermodal Down
From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center . Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission . In October 2025, total U...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
November 9, 2025 at 2:26 PM
AAR Rail Traffic in October: Carloads Flat, Intermodal Down
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/aar-...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/aar-...
Wholesale Used Car Prices Declined in October; Unchanged Year-over-year
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/whol...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/whol...
Wholesale Used Car Prices Declined in October; Unchanged Year-over-year
From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decline in October The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) dropped to 202....
www.calculatedriskblog.com
November 7, 2025 at 2:28 PM
Wholesale Used Car Prices Declined in October; Unchanged Year-over-year
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/whol...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/whol...
Goldman: "We estimate that seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims increased to about 228k for the week ended November 1st by combining the Department of Labor (DOL)’s pre-released seasonal factors with this afternoon’s release of state-level claims."
November 6, 2025 at 11:47 PM
Goldman: "We estimate that seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims increased to about 228k for the week ended November 1st by combining the Department of Labor (DOL)’s pre-released seasonal factors with this afternoon’s release of state-level claims."
Cotality: House Price Growth Slowed to 1.2% YoY in September
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/cota...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/cota...
Cotality: House Price Growth Slowed to 1.2% YoY in September
From Cotality (formerly CoreLogic): US home price insights — November 2025 • Year-over-year price growth continues its downward trend, only...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
November 6, 2025 at 7:33 PM
Cotality: House Price Growth Slowed to 1.2% YoY in September
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/cota...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/cota...
Reposted by Bill McBride
Every month for the last 77 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has estimated Americans' unemployment rate
This streak dies tomorrow
Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months
This blind spot will remain forever
This streak dies tomorrow
Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months
This blind spot will remain forever
Here's the planned BLS data release schedule for Nov 2025.
On Tues, it couldn't release Sept job openings, hires, layoffs and firings data.
This morning, it couldn't release 2025Q3 business Productivity and Costs data.
Tomorrow, it can't release Oct 2025 #JobsReport
www.bls.gov/schedule/202...
On Tues, it couldn't release Sept job openings, hires, layoffs and firings data.
This morning, it couldn't release 2025Q3 business Productivity and Costs data.
Tomorrow, it can't release Oct 2025 #JobsReport
www.bls.gov/schedule/202...
November 6, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Every month for the last 77 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has estimated Americans' unemployment rate
This streak dies tomorrow
Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months
This blind spot will remain forever
This streak dies tomorrow
Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months
This blind spot will remain forever
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 2.6% Year-over-year
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/hote...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/hote...
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 2.6% Year-over-year
SPECIAL NOTE on Government Shutdown and Air Travel from CoStar : U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said the government would cut 10% ...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
November 6, 2025 at 4:46 PM
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 2.6% Year-over-year
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/hote...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/hote...
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in October
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/1st-look-a...
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/1st-look-a...
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in October
Tracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals regional differences in both sales and inventory.
calculatedrisk.substack.com
November 6, 2025 at 1:22 PM
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in October
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/1st-look-a...
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/1st-look-a...
Q3 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Foreclosures Increase Slightly calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/q3-ny-fed-...
Q3 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Foreclosures Increase Slightly
The NY Fed released the Q3 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit this morning.
calculatedrisk.substack.com
November 5, 2025 at 4:37 PM
Q3 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Foreclosures Increase Slightly calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/q3-ny-fed-...
NY Fed Q3 Report: Household Debt Increased $197 Billion in Q3; Delinquencies "Elevated"
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/ny-f...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/ny-f...
NY Fed Q3 Report: Household Debt Increased $197 Billion in Q3; Delinquencies "Elevated"
From the NY Fed: Household Debt Balances Grow Steadily; Mortgage Originations Tick Up in Third Quarter The Federal Reserve Bank of New York...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
November 5, 2025 at 4:15 PM
NY Fed Q3 Report: Household Debt Increased $197 Billion in Q3; Delinquencies "Elevated"
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/ny-f...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/ny-f...
ISM® Services Index Increased to 52.4% in October; Prices Paid Very High; Employment in Contraction for Fifth Consecutive Month
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/ism-...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/ism-...
ISM® Services Index Increased to 52.4% in October; Prices Paid Very High; Employment in Contraction for Fifth Consecutive Month
(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 52.4%, up from 50.0% the previous month. The employment index increased to 48.2%...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
November 5, 2025 at 3:05 PM
ISM® Services Index Increased to 52.4% in October; Prices Paid Very High; Employment in Contraction for Fifth Consecutive Month
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/ism-...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/ism-...
Private employers added 42,000 jobs in October adpemploymentreport.com
"Private employers added jobs in October for the first time since July, but hiring was modest relative to what we reported earlier this year."
"Private employers added jobs in October for the first time since July, but hiring was modest relative to what we reported earlier this year."
November 5, 2025 at 1:21 PM
Private employers added 42,000 jobs in October adpemploymentreport.com
"Private employers added jobs in October for the first time since July, but hiring was modest relative to what we reported earlier this year."
"Private employers added jobs in October for the first time since July, but hiring was modest relative to what we reported earlier this year."
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/mba-...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/mba-...
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 1.9 percent from one week earlier, ...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
November 5, 2025 at 1:01 PM
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/mba-...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/mba-...
10 things to know about the property market: October 2025 www.cotality.com/press-releas...
November 5, 2025 at 12:04 AM
10 things to know about the property market: October 2025 www.cotality.com/press-releas...
Lawler: Single-Family Rent Trends at INVH and AMH calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-sin...
Lawler: Single-Family Rent Trends at INVH and AMH
Some data and comments from housing economist Tom Lawler:
calculatedrisk.substack.com
November 4, 2025 at 9:35 PM
Lawler: Single-Family Rent Trends at INVH and AMH calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-sin...
House Prices to Income
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/house-pric...
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/house-pric...
House Prices to Income
New Data for 2024 Wages Released In October
calculatedrisk.substack.com
November 4, 2025 at 4:09 PM
House Prices to Income
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/house-pric...
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/house-pric...
Light Vehicle Sales Decreased to 15.3 Million SAAR in October; Lowest in 15 Months
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/ligh...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/ligh...
Light Vehicle Sales Decreased to 15.3 Million SAAR in October; Lowest in 15 Months
Omdia reported that light vehicle sales were at 15.3 million in October on a seasonally adjusted annual basis (SAAR). October US Light Vehic...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
November 4, 2025 at 1:13 PM
Light Vehicle Sales Decreased to 15.3 Million SAAR in October; Lowest in 15 Months
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/ligh...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/ligh...
Fed October SLOOS Survey: Banks reported Stronger Demand for Some Loan Categories
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/fed-...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/fed-...
Fed October SLOOS Survey: Banks reported Stronger Demand for Some Loan Categories
From the Federal Reserve: The October 2025 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices he October 2025 Senior Loan Officer ...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
November 3, 2025 at 7:09 PM
Fed October SLOOS Survey: Banks reported Stronger Demand for Some Loan Categories
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/fed-...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/fed-...
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/asking-ren...
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/asking-ren...
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year
Another monthly update on rents.
calculatedrisk.substack.com
November 3, 2025 at 3:53 PM
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/asking-ren...
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/asking-ren...
ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 48.7% in October
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/ism-...
This suggests manufacturing contracted for the eighth consecutive month in October. This was below the consensus forecast, and employment was weak and prices very strong.
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/ism-...
This suggests manufacturing contracted for the eighth consecutive month in October. This was below the consensus forecast, and employment was weak and prices very strong.
November 3, 2025 at 3:07 PM
ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 48.7% in October
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/ism-...
This suggests manufacturing contracted for the eighth consecutive month in October. This was below the consensus forecast, and employment was weak and prices very strong.
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/ism-...
This suggests manufacturing contracted for the eighth consecutive month in October. This was below the consensus forecast, and employment was weak and prices very strong.
Housing November 3rd Weekly Update: Inventory Down 1.3% Week-over-week
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/hous...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/hous...
Housing November 3rd Weekly Update: Inventory Down 1.3% Week-over-week
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.3% week-over-week. Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then de...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
November 3, 2025 at 1:11 PM
Housing November 3rd Weekly Update: Inventory Down 1.3% Week-over-week
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/hous...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/hous...
Goldman: "signs are emerging that the end of the shutdown might be approaching. Missed air traffic controller and airport screener pay on Oct. 28 raises the odds of air travel delays, particularly ahead of a second pay date Nov. 10."
1/3
1/3
November 2, 2025 at 10:59 PM
Goldman: "signs are emerging that the end of the shutdown might be approaching. Missed air traffic controller and airport screener pay on Oct. 28 raises the odds of air travel delays, particularly ahead of a second pay date Nov. 10."
1/3
1/3
Update: Lumber Prices Down 3% YoY
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/upda...
Now, even with the tariffs, prices are down slightly year-over-year suggesting weak demand.
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/upda...
Now, even with the tariffs, prices are down slightly year-over-year suggesting weak demand.
Update: Lumber Prices Down 3% YoY
Here is another update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 202...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
November 2, 2025 at 3:05 PM
Update: Lumber Prices Down 3% YoY
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/upda...
Now, even with the tariffs, prices are down slightly year-over-year suggesting weak demand.
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/upda...
Now, even with the tariffs, prices are down slightly year-over-year suggesting weak demand.