Jay Shambaugh
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jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
Jay Shambaugh
@jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
1.1K followers 460 following 59 posts

Professor of Econ and Intl affairs at GW
Former: Under Secretary of Intl Affairs at Treasury, Director of the Hamilton Project at Brookings, Member at WH CEA, Senior /chief economist at CEA.

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Jay C. Shambaugh is an American economist who served as Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs at the U.S. Department of the Treasury from 2023 to 2025.

Source: Wikipedia
Economics 93%
Business 2%
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jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 6d
Who could have predicted this? (Where “this” is the idea that indiscriminate tariffs bouncing up and down would raise input costs and uncertainty and hurt manufacturing). Oh right. Everyone. Everyone predicted this.
scottlincicome.bsky.social Scott Lincicome @scottlincicome.bsky.social · 6d
"U.S. Manufacturing Is in Retreat and Trump’s Tariffs Aren’t Helping" 😲
www.wsj.com/economy/u-s-...

"Investing to supply the auto market in China—home to three NN factories—is also a safer bet than building out its footprint stateside."

Reposted by Jay Shambaugh

scottlincicome.bsky.social
Scott Lincicome @scottlincicome.bsky.social · 6d
"U.S. Manufacturing Is in Retreat and Trump’s Tariffs Aren’t Helping" 😲
www.wsj.com/economy/u-s-...

"Investing to supply the auto market in China—home to three NN factories—is also a safer bet than building out its footprint stateside."

jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 7d
When I worked in the WH, lawyers asked me to resign as a Deacon at my church bc the Board of Deacons had fiduciary responsibility, & I couldn’t be a political appointee at the WH and have that for anything but the U.S. Some see the corruption & think “everyone does this”. No. This is awful & new.
ianbassin.bsky.social Ian Bassin @ianbassin.bsky.social · 7d
I was a White House ethics lawyer.

I used to advise people not to even accept a free cup of coffee from someone who had interests before them. And staff followed those rules.

I can’t even find the words to describe the scale of Trump’s corruption here.
vanhollen.senate.gov Senator Chris Van Hollen @vanhollen.senate.gov · 8d
Foreign countries are bribing our president to sell out the American people.
 
Trump family businesses made $187 MILLION from this deal, and just months later he gave the UAE some of our most top-secret AI tech.
 
They are selling our national security to the highest bidder.

jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 7d
Previously I said I thought the Board of Peace was the best example for @abenewman.bsky.social and goddard’s neoroyalism theory. But as this thread makes clear, we’re witnessing wholesale rewriting of national security policy away from Nation’s interest to Trump/famil/cronies.
abenewman.bsky.social Abe Newman @abenewman.bsky.social · 7d
1/WSJ blockbuster. Key takeaway: Court interests not national interests are driving US foreign policy. In secret deal, UAE buys stake in Trump/Witkoff family crypto firm months before US does U-turn on advanced chip sales to UAE. This is what neo-royalism looks like.
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
‘Spy Sheikh’ Bought Secret Stake in Trump Company
$500 million investment for 49% of World Liberty came months before U.A.E. won access to tightly guarded American AI chips.
www.wsj.com

Reposted by Jay Shambaugh

abenewman.bsky.social
Abe Newman @abenewman.bsky.social · 7d
1/WSJ blockbuster. Key takeaway: Court interests not national interests are driving US foreign policy. In secret deal, UAE buys stake in Trump/Witkoff family crypto firm months before US does U-turn on advanced chip sales to UAE. This is what neo-royalism looks like.
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
‘Spy Sheikh’ Bought Secret Stake in Trump Company
$500 million investment for 49% of World Liberty came months before U.A.E. won access to tightly guarded American AI chips.
www.wsj.com

Reposted by Anne Applebaum, Timothy Snyder, Steven Heydemann , and 16 more

ianbassin.bsky.social
Ian Bassin @ianbassin.bsky.social · 7d
I was a White House ethics lawyer.

I used to advise people not to even accept a free cup of coffee from someone who had interests before them. And staff followed those rules.

I can’t even find the words to describe the scale of Trump’s corruption here.
vanhollen.senate.gov Senator Chris Van Hollen @vanhollen.senate.gov · 8d
Foreign countries are bribing our president to sell out the American people.
 
Trump family businesses made $187 MILLION from this deal, and just months later he gave the UAE some of our most top-secret AI tech.
 
They are selling our national security to the highest bidder.

Reposted by Jason Mittell, Archon Fung, Matthew Bunn , and 15 more

billybragg.bsky.social
Billy Bragg @billybragg.bsky.social · 14d
I wrote this yesterday about the hero city of Minneapolis

www.youtube.com/watch?v=IKOW...
BILLY BRAGG - CITY OF HEROES
YouTube video by Billy Bragg
www.youtube.com

Reposted by Yuriy Gorodnichenko

jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 14d
Occupation of a city. Killing innocent people. Lying about the killing. I’ve never been more ashamed of my government. I spent 6 years in govt. 4 in politically appointed roles. If this had happened then, I’d have resigned. Anyone political in this administration there Monday is morally culpable.

Reposted by Antonio Fatás

jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 17d
I’ve found @abenewman.bsky.social ‘s neoroyalist frame very useful for thinking about Trump’s actions. I’m not sure anything fits the model better than the Board of peace. Not about US national interest at all. Purely for Trump and his family/cronies.
abenewman.bsky.social Abe Newman @abenewman.bsky.social · 17d
1/Board of Peace is not about peace through cooperation but peace through dominance and extraction. Clear effort to replace rules-based international order with a structure that bolsters Trump and his effort to create a neo-royalist system.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/21/u...
Trump’s ‘Board of Peace’ Would Have Global Scope but One Man in Charge
www.nytimes.com

Reposted by Paul Davies, Jay Shambaugh, Antonio Fatás

abenewman.bsky.social
Abe Newman @abenewman.bsky.social · 17d
1/Board of Peace is not about peace through cooperation but peace through dominance and extraction. Clear effort to replace rules-based international order with a structure that bolsters Trump and his effort to create a neo-royalist system.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/21/u...
Trump’s ‘Board of Peace’ Would Have Global Scope but One Man in Charge
www.nytimes.com

jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 20d
As Carney notes, the U.S. has long had power through its economic choke points. We had primarily used this power to combat terrorism, nuclear proliferation, or violation of international rules. So others tolerated/supported this power. Trump is abusing it. The old order is gone at great cost to US.
atrupar.com Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 20d
Carney: "American hegemony in particular helped provide public goods, a stable financial system... this bargain no longer works. Let me be direct. We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition... recently, great powers have begun using economic integration as a weapon. Tariffs as leverage ... "

Reposted by Jay Shambaugh

chadpbown.com
Chad P. Bown @chadpbown.com · 20d
Companies now pay more for their parts as other businesses pass on the cost of tariffs — which include duties of 50% on steel and aluminum, as well as “reciprocal” tariffs of 10 to 50% on almost every trading partner.

Amazing reporting by @aimewilliams.bsky.social et al
www.ft.com/content/33ea...
The reality of trying to make US manufacturing great again
The fortunes of furniture makers in North Carolina and Foshan in China show the impact of Trump’s tariff regime
www.ft.com

Reposted by Steve Peers, Philip Nel, Molly Scott Cato , and 4 more

carlquintanilla.bsky.social
Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 20d
CARNEY: “.. You cannot live within the lie of mutual benefit through integration when integration becomes the source of your subordination.” 🔥
atrupar.com Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 20d
Carney: "American hegemony in particular helped provide public goods, a stable financial system... this bargain no longer works. Let me be direct. We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition... recently, great powers have begun using economic integration as a weapon. Tariffs as leverage ... "

Reposted by Anne Applebaum, Daniela Gabor, Matthew Bunn , and 25 more

atrupar.com
Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 20d
Carney: "American hegemony in particular helped provide public goods, a stable financial system... this bargain no longer works. Let me be direct. We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition... recently, great powers have begun using economic integration as a weapon. Tariffs as leverage ... "

Reposted by Jay Shambaugh

bencasselman.bsky.social
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 20d
Finally, from today: The full consequences of Trump's actions will take time to show up. Economists warn the undermining of institutions and alliances, erosion of the rule of law and cuts to scientific research (not a complete list) could do lasting damage.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/20/b... #EconSky
Trump’s First Year Could Have Lasting Economic Consequences
www.nytimes.com

jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 22d
This is just awful. Not sure which is worse, assume Bessent knows how awful the policy is and is just carrying water, or think he believes this is good policy. This is hurting our economy and shredding decades of alliances, and violates both our laws and international commitments.
atrupar.com Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 22d
WELKER: What is the national emergency that justifies this new slate of tariffs?

BESSENT: The national emergency is avoiding a national emergency

Reposted by Kim L. Scheppele, Elizabeth Saunders, Richard S.J. Tol , and 10 more

atrupar.com
Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 22d
WELKER: What is the national emergency that justifies this new slate of tariffs?

BESSENT: The national emergency is avoiding a national emergency

Reposted by Steven Heydemann, Jay Shambaugh

bloomberg.com
Bloomberg News @bloomberg.com · 23d
President Donald Trump’s fixation on Greenland offers an ice-cold reminder to leaders in Europe and abroad: No deal is ever final.
Trump’s Greenland Pressure Blitz Reopens Tariff Wounds in Europe
President Donald Trump’s fixation on Greenland offers an ice-cold reminder to leaders in Europe and abroad: No deal is ever final.
bloom.bg

Reposted by David R. Miller

jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 23d
Beyond being illegal and terrible strategy, this also highlights why it is and will be increasingly difficult for the U.S. to make “deals” with anyone. Trump cut a tariff deal with the EU a few months ago. Apparently that’s now null and void. Why would anyone trust what we say?
peark.es George Pearkes @peark.es · 23d
Happy Saturday! We’re launching a trade war because Europe won’t let us violate Danish and Greenlandic sovereignty. Enjoy!
Trump to Impose Tariffs on Some European Nations Over Greenland By Kevin Whitelaw 01/17/2026 11:27:04 [BN] (Bloomberg) -- President Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on European countries rallying to Denmark's side in his pursuit of Greenland. Trump threatened in a social media post to impose the tariff Feb. 1 and raise the tariff to 25% in June unless "a Deal is reached for the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland." The tariffs will apply to Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands and Finland, he said. To contact the reporter on this story: Kevin Whitelaw in Washington at kwhitelaw@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story: Kevin Whitelaw at kwhitelaw@bloomberg.net

Reposted by Jay Shambaugh

crampell.bsky.social
Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 23d
This from @pkrugman.bsky.social made me lol open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...

Reposted by Aaron Sojourner, Simon Lester

jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 23d
If the Court has not written its ruling on tariffs yet, I wonder how much more proof they need that if the President has this power to use on a whim, he will abuse it. Congress has not granted the President the authority to raise and lower taxes on Americans just because he feels like it.

jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 23d
Much like @atrupar.com says, this is not on the scale of importance as so many other awful things Trump is doing, but destroying the public golf setup in DC is really sad. I’ve never seen a more diverse (socioeconomic & racial) course in my life.
atrupar.com Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 23d
New in PN: Trump's despotism extends to DC golf courses

"The withdrawal of opportunities for public recreation goes hand in hand with Trump’s larger program of dismantling public services and core components of the welfare state."
Trump's despotism extends to DC golf courses
He views the entire world as a private club he owns and profits from.
www.publicnotice.co

Reposted by Jay Shambaugh, David Darmofal

atrupar.com
Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 23d
New in PN: Trump's despotism extends to DC golf courses

"The withdrawal of opportunities for public recreation goes hand in hand with Trump’s larger program of dismantling public services and core components of the welfare state."
Trump's despotism extends to DC golf courses
He views the entire world as a private club he owns and profits from.
www.publicnotice.co

Reposted by Aaron Sojourner, Jay Shambaugh

jimgoldgeier.bsky.social
Jim Goldgeier @jimgoldgeier.bsky.social · 23d
Sheer insanity www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
Trump announces tariffs on European countries opposing Greenland takeover
The move escalates tensions between the U.S. and longtime allies that have been sending Trump a message that the territory of Denmark is not for sale.
www.washingtonpost.com

Reposted by Jay Shambaugh

peark.es
George Pearkes @peark.es · 23d
Happy Saturday! We’re launching a trade war because Europe won’t let us violate Danish and Greenlandic sovereignty. Enjoy!
Trump to Impose Tariffs on Some European Nations Over Greenland By Kevin Whitelaw 01/17/2026 11:27:04 [BN] (Bloomberg) -- President Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on European countries rallying to Denmark's side in his pursuit of Greenland. Trump threatened in a social media post to impose the tariff Feb. 1 and raise the tariff to 25% in June unless "a Deal is reached for the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland." The tariffs will apply to Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands and Finland, he said. To contact the reporter on this story: Kevin Whitelaw in Washington at kwhitelaw@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story: Kevin Whitelaw at kwhitelaw@bloomberg.net

Reposted by Daniel W. Drezner, Iikka Korhonen, Jay Shambaugh

colbylsmith.bsky.social
Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 28d
Janet Yellen tells @nytimes.com that the investigation against Powell is the most significant attack ever on Fed independence.

"If you can bring charges for no reason whatsoever against your enemies, we're no longer living in a society governed by the rule of law."

www.nytimes.com/2026/01/12/b...
Fed Changes Course and Takes On Trump’s Political Fight
www.nytimes.com

Reposted by Jay Shambaugh

trevondlogan.bsky.social
Trevon Logan @trevondlogan.bsky.social · 28d
Five. Alarm. Fire. 🔥

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen, Antonio Fatás

jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 28d
For those who don’t follow central banking. We should be clear. This is an attempt by Trump to bully the central bank and have the Fed make policy he likes. It goes against a century of tradition in the U.S., and based on tons of research is bad for the economy. Another low for this administration.

jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 28d
I don’t think it’s about Trump’s preferred policy. I think this kind of ham-handed approach by Trump towards the Fed may make Powell feel he needs to stay to defend the institution. It’s about independence.

jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 28d
And to be clear. By backfires, I mean, Powell may have been planning to end his time at the Fed when his Chair term ends. But this may make him feel the Fed is under such threat that he should stay, so the “backfires” is for Trump. Jay Powell doesn’t deserve this.