Colby Smith
@colbylsmith.bsky.social
@nytimes correspondent writing about the Federal Reserve and the US economy. Previously @FT, @TheEconomist, @BloombergTV. colby.smith@nytimes.com
Minutes from the Fed's December meeting indicate that most officials support further rate cuts. But deep divisions inside the central bank have raised questions about the timing and magnitude of those moves www.nytimes.com/2025/12/30/b... @nytimes.com
Deep Divide Inside Fed Raises Questions About Timing of Further Rate Cuts
www.nytimes.com
December 30, 2025 at 7:41 PM
Minutes from the Fed's December meeting indicate that most officials support further rate cuts. But deep divisions inside the central bank have raised questions about the timing and magnitude of those moves www.nytimes.com/2025/12/30/b... @nytimes.com
NEW: Will AI lead to mass layoffs? Policymakers are grappling w/ that question as the admin embraces the industry
Lisa Cook of the Fed tells @nytimes.com that she sees “pluses and minuses” for the labor market and that it could help inflation
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/24/u... @tonyromm.bsky.social
Lisa Cook of the Fed tells @nytimes.com that she sees “pluses and minuses” for the labor market and that it could help inflation
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/24/u... @tonyromm.bsky.social
Chasing an Economic Boom, White House Dismisses Risks of A.I.
www.nytimes.com
December 24, 2025 at 1:34 PM
NEW: Will AI lead to mass layoffs? Policymakers are grappling w/ that question as the admin embraces the industry
Lisa Cook of the Fed tells @nytimes.com that she sees “pluses and minuses” for the labor market and that it could help inflation
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/24/u... @tonyromm.bsky.social
Lisa Cook of the Fed tells @nytimes.com that she sees “pluses and minuses” for the labor market and that it could help inflation
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/24/u... @tonyromm.bsky.social
"Anybody that disagrees with me will never be the Fed Chairman!" Trump says in a new post on social media.
The president said that the wants the next chair to lower interest rates if markets are doing well, rather than raise them to "kill Rallies"
The president said that the wants the next chair to lower interest rates if markets are doing well, rather than raise them to "kill Rallies"
December 23, 2025 at 6:14 PM
"Anybody that disagrees with me will never be the Fed Chairman!" Trump says in a new post on social media.
The president said that the wants the next chair to lower interest rates if markets are doing well, rather than raise them to "kill Rallies"
The president said that the wants the next chair to lower interest rates if markets are doing well, rather than raise them to "kill Rallies"
NEW w/ @bencasselman.bsky.social: After a volatile year, the economy has once again proved more resilient than expected. But that doesn't mean that Americans are feeling good. Unemployment has ticked up and cost-of-living concerns are ever present
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/22/b... @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/22/b... @nytimes.com
The Economy Survived 2025, but Many Americans Are Reeling
www.nytimes.com
December 22, 2025 at 2:12 PM
NEW w/ @bencasselman.bsky.social: After a volatile year, the economy has once again proved more resilient than expected. But that doesn't mean that Americans are feeling good. Unemployment has ticked up and cost-of-living concerns are ever present
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/22/b... @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/22/b... @nytimes.com
November's CPI report "should not be taken literally or guide monetary policy," says Jonathan Hill, head of U.S. inflation strategy at Barclays www.nytimes.com/live/2025/12... @nytimes.com
December 18, 2025 at 3:45 PM
November's CPI report "should not be taken literally or guide monetary policy," says Jonathan Hill, head of U.S. inflation strategy at Barclays www.nytimes.com/live/2025/12... @nytimes.com
Inflation unexpectedly eased in November, but Powell already warned to view this data with a "skeptical eye," because of distortions caused by the gov't shutdown www.nytimes.com/live/2025/12... @nytimes.com
Live Updates: Inflation Slowed to 2.7% in November, When Data Was Distorted by the Shutdown
www.nytimes.com
December 18, 2025 at 1:37 PM
Inflation unexpectedly eased in November, but Powell already warned to view this data with a "skeptical eye," because of distortions caused by the gov't shutdown www.nytimes.com/live/2025/12... @nytimes.com
NEW: Trump's decision on the next Fed chair comes down to who he believes will be more successful in delivering substantially lower rates. That prerequisite creates a credibility problem for whoever is selected, one that will be difficult to escape.
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/17/u... @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/17/u... @nytimes.com
December 17, 2025 at 1:05 PM
NEW: Trump's decision on the next Fed chair comes down to who he believes will be more successful in delivering substantially lower rates. That prerequisite creates a credibility problem for whoever is selected, one that will be difficult to escape.
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/17/u... @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/17/u... @nytimes.com
NEW: Trump is in the final stages of selecting his pick to replace Powell. On Wednesday, he will meet with Chris Waller, a Fed governor who was one of the first policymakers this year to advocate for lower rates
December 16, 2025 at 7:36 PM
NEW: Trump is in the final stages of selecting his pick to replace Powell. On Wednesday, he will meet with Chris Waller, a Fed governor who was one of the first policymakers this year to advocate for lower rates
Powell warned last week that the incoming data should be viewed with a "skeptical eye" because of technical distortions tied to the gov't shutdown.
But the rise in the unemployment rate to 4.6% is going to catch the Fed's attention.
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/16/b... @nytimes.com
But the rise in the unemployment rate to 4.6% is going to catch the Fed's attention.
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/16/b... @nytimes.com
Jobs Data Is Finally Back. But the Economic Picture Is Still Blurry.
www.nytimes.com
December 16, 2025 at 1:39 PM
Powell warned last week that the incoming data should be viewed with a "skeptical eye" because of technical distortions tied to the gov't shutdown.
But the rise in the unemployment rate to 4.6% is going to catch the Fed's attention.
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/16/b... @nytimes.com
But the rise in the unemployment rate to 4.6% is going to catch the Fed's attention.
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/16/b... @nytimes.com
Trump’s next Fed chair received a “warning shot” on Wednesday following a very divisive rate cut: Much lower borrowing costs could be hard to deliver
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/11/b... @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/11/b... @nytimes.com
Fed Divisions Underscore Challenge for Trump’s Next Chair
www.nytimes.com
December 11, 2025 at 12:38 PM
Trump’s next Fed chair received a “warning shot” on Wednesday following a very divisive rate cut: Much lower borrowing costs could be hard to deliver
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/11/b... @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/11/b... @nytimes.com
Fed cuts rates. 3 dissents (Miran for 50bps, Goolsbee/Schmid for no cut). 4 other officials registered soft dissents by submitting a forecast for rates to have ended the year higher than the actual level after today's move. Most expect 1 cut next year, although 7 forecast none
December 10, 2025 at 7:02 PM
Fed cuts rates. 3 dissents (Miran for 50bps, Goolsbee/Schmid for no cut). 4 other officials registered soft dissents by submitting a forecast for rates to have ended the year higher than the actual level after today's move. Most expect 1 cut next year, although 7 forecast none
As the Fed prepares to cut, signs of division will be everywhere. From official dissents on the vote to "soft" dissents (officials writing down higher rate forecasts for '25 than where we end the year), the message will be that this was a close call
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/10/b... @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/10/b... @nytimes.com
Divisions to Dominate Fed’s Last 2025 Meeting, Leaving Rate Outlook Unclear
www.nytimes.com
December 10, 2025 at 1:02 PM
As the Fed prepares to cut, signs of division will be everywhere. From official dissents on the vote to "soft" dissents (officials writing down higher rate forecasts for '25 than where we end the year), the message will be that this was a close call
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/10/b... @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/10/b... @nytimes.com
Reposted by Colby Smith
Today's #JOLTS report gives our first official look at the labor market in October.
Short version: Not that different from August, but some signs of further weakening. #NumbersDay
Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...
Short version: Not that different from August, but some signs of further weakening. #NumbersDay
Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary
- 2025 M10 Results
www.bls.gov
December 9, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Today's #JOLTS report gives our first official look at the labor market in October.
Short version: Not that different from August, but some signs of further weakening. #NumbersDay
Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...
Short version: Not that different from August, but some signs of further weakening. #NumbersDay
Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...
As the Fed meeting kicks off, Powell is grappling with intense internal divisions about the economic outlook and the policy path forward. A cut tomorrow will no doubt generate dissent, but standing pat would have prompted even more pushback www.nytimes.com/2025/12/08/b... @nytimes.com
Powell Faces Pressure From Multiple Fronts as Fed Prepares to Cut Rates
www.nytimes.com
December 9, 2025 at 3:17 PM
As the Fed meeting kicks off, Powell is grappling with intense internal divisions about the economic outlook and the policy path forward. A cut tomorrow will no doubt generate dissent, but standing pat would have prompted even more pushback www.nytimes.com/2025/12/08/b... @nytimes.com
NEW: As the Fed prepares to cut rates this week, Powell faces pressure from multiple fronts
A rift has opened up inside the central bank about the economic outlook. The chair also faces attacks from the president and contenders seeking to replace him
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/08/b... @nytimes.com
A rift has opened up inside the central bank about the economic outlook. The chair also faces attacks from the president and contenders seeking to replace him
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/08/b... @nytimes.com
December 8, 2025 at 1:59 PM
NEW: As the Fed prepares to cut rates this week, Powell faces pressure from multiple fronts
A rift has opened up inside the central bank about the economic outlook. The chair also faces attacks from the president and contenders seeking to replace him
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/08/b... @nytimes.com
A rift has opened up inside the central bank about the economic outlook. The chair also faces attacks from the president and contenders seeking to replace him
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/08/b... @nytimes.com
At the Dealbook conference, Bessent declines to confirm that the Fed chair job is going to Hassett. But he does stress the limits of the role with regards to rate cuts saying the person has "one vote"
NEW: The stakes for the next Fed chair are high, but they are also high for the person running the search process.
Trump wants lower rates and has made clear that Bessent’s fortunes are tied to what happens under new leadership
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/03/u...
Trump wants lower rates and has made clear that Bessent’s fortunes are tied to what happens under new leadership
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/03/u...
Fed Pick Puts Pressure on Bessent to Deliver for Trump
www.nytimes.com
December 3, 2025 at 3:21 PM
At the Dealbook conference, Bessent declines to confirm that the Fed chair job is going to Hassett. But he does stress the limits of the role with regards to rate cuts saying the person has "one vote"
NEW: The stakes for the next Fed chair are high, but they are also high for the person running the search process.
Trump wants lower rates and has made clear that Bessent’s fortunes are tied to what happens under new leadership
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/03/u...
Trump wants lower rates and has made clear that Bessent’s fortunes are tied to what happens under new leadership
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/03/u...
Fed Pick Puts Pressure on Bessent to Deliver for Trump
www.nytimes.com
December 3, 2025 at 2:01 PM
NEW: The stakes for the next Fed chair are high, but they are also high for the person running the search process.
Trump wants lower rates and has made clear that Bessent’s fortunes are tied to what happens under new leadership
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/03/u...
Trump wants lower rates and has made clear that Bessent’s fortunes are tied to what happens under new leadership
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/03/u...
Proponents of a December cut gained a powerful backer on Friday, with John Williams of the NY Fed and a close ally of Powell saying there is scope for interest rates to be lowered in the "near term" www.nytimes.com/2025/11/21/b... @nytimes.com
Top Fed Official Boosts Odds of a December Rate Cut
www.nytimes.com
November 21, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Proponents of a December cut gained a powerful backer on Friday, with John Williams of the NY Fed and a close ally of Powell saying there is scope for interest rates to be lowered in the "near term" www.nytimes.com/2025/11/21/b... @nytimes.com
This jobs report complicates things for the Fed. If you're an official who didn't want to cut in December, you can point to stronger than expected monthly payrolls growth. But if you're an official who wants to cut, the slight tick-up in the unemployment rate helps that case
November 20, 2025 at 1:52 PM
This jobs report complicates things for the Fed. If you're an official who didn't want to cut in December, you can point to stronger than expected monthly payrolls growth. But if you're an official who wants to cut, the slight tick-up in the unemployment rate helps that case
Minutes from October's Fed meeting underscore just how divided policymakers are about a December cut
Many did not think a cut then is appropriate, and some who voted in favor of the October move said they also could have supported standing pat www.nytimes.com/2025/11/19/b... @nytimes.com
Many did not think a cut then is appropriate, and some who voted in favor of the October move said they also could have supported standing pat www.nytimes.com/2025/11/19/b... @nytimes.com
December Rate Cut in Doubt as Fed Fault Lines Deepen, Minutes Show
www.nytimes.com
November 19, 2025 at 7:08 PM
Minutes from October's Fed meeting underscore just how divided policymakers are about a December cut
Many did not think a cut then is appropriate, and some who voted in favor of the October move said they also could have supported standing pat www.nytimes.com/2025/11/19/b... @nytimes.com
Many did not think a cut then is appropriate, and some who voted in favor of the October move said they also could have supported standing pat www.nytimes.com/2025/11/19/b... @nytimes.com
The Fed has published the memo in full, along with a statement from Bowman:
"Our supervisory approach is not about narrowing our focus — it is about sharpening it," she said. "This is not about what we are leaving behind — it is about building a more effective supervisory framework"
"Our supervisory approach is not about narrowing our focus — it is about sharpening it," she said. "This is not about what we are leaving behind — it is about building a more effective supervisory framework"
NEW: Top supervisors at the Fed's 12 reserve banks and senior staff in Washington received a memo on Oct 29 with directives fundamentally changing how the central bank oversees banks
It is part of a sweeping overhaul led by Bowman
🎁🔗 www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/b... @nytimes.com
It is part of a sweeping overhaul led by Bowman
🎁🔗 www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/b... @nytimes.com
Wall Street’s Top Cop Ushers In Lighter-Touch Oversight of Banks
www.nytimes.com
November 18, 2025 at 2:03 PM
The Fed has published the memo in full, along with a statement from Bowman:
"Our supervisory approach is not about narrowing our focus — it is about sharpening it," she said. "This is not about what we are leaving behind — it is about building a more effective supervisory framework"
"Our supervisory approach is not about narrowing our focus — it is about sharpening it," she said. "This is not about what we are leaving behind — it is about building a more effective supervisory framework"
The top concern we heard about the Fed's embrace of lighter-touch bank oversight is that it could lead to more blindspots that may mean a bigger crisis
"People don’t know what problems were stopped before they had a chance to hurt them," said Peggy Twohig, who led the CFPB's supervision dept
"People don’t know what problems were stopped before they had a chance to hurt them," said Peggy Twohig, who led the CFPB's supervision dept
NEW: Top supervisors at the Fed's 12 reserve banks and senior staff in Washington received a memo on Oct 29 with directives fundamentally changing how the central bank oversees banks
It is part of a sweeping overhaul led by Bowman
🎁🔗 www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/b... @nytimes.com
It is part of a sweeping overhaul led by Bowman
🎁🔗 www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/b... @nytimes.com
Wall Street’s Top Cop Ushers In Lighter-Touch Oversight of Banks
www.nytimes.com
November 18, 2025 at 1:28 PM
The top concern we heard about the Fed's embrace of lighter-touch bank oversight is that it could lead to more blindspots that may mean a bigger crisis
"People don’t know what problems were stopped before they had a chance to hurt them," said Peggy Twohig, who led the CFPB's supervision dept
"People don’t know what problems were stopped before they had a chance to hurt them," said Peggy Twohig, who led the CFPB's supervision dept
NEW: Top supervisors at the Fed's 12 reserve banks and senior staff in Washington received a memo on Oct 29 with directives fundamentally changing how the central bank oversees banks
It is part of a sweeping overhaul led by Bowman
🎁🔗 www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/b... @nytimes.com
It is part of a sweeping overhaul led by Bowman
🎁🔗 www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/b... @nytimes.com
Wall Street’s Top Cop Ushers In Lighter-Touch Oversight of Banks
www.nytimes.com
November 17, 2025 at 10:32 PM
NEW: Top supervisors at the Fed's 12 reserve banks and senior staff in Washington received a memo on Oct 29 with directives fundamentally changing how the central bank oversees banks
It is part of a sweeping overhaul led by Bowman
🎁🔗 www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/b... @nytimes.com
It is part of a sweeping overhaul led by Bowman
🎁🔗 www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/b... @nytimes.com
Days before the July 29-30 meeting, Kugler asked Powell for a waiver so that she could trade during the blackout period in order to get rid of impermissible holdings. That request was denied.
Ms. Kugler did not attend the meeting and on Aug 1 she resigned
Ms. Kugler did not attend the meeting and on Aug 1 she resigned
NEW: Adriana Kugler, who abruptly left the Fed, repeatedly violated the central bank’s trading rules.
New disclosures show trades in individual stocks, like Apple, Southwest Airlines and Cava, many of which took place during the blackout period ahead of policy votes www.nytimes.com/2025/11/15/b...
New disclosures show trades in individual stocks, like Apple, Southwest Airlines and Cava, many of which took place during the blackout period ahead of policy votes www.nytimes.com/2025/11/15/b...
Former Fed Official Violated Trading Rules, Disclosures Show
www.nytimes.com
November 15, 2025 at 4:58 PM
Days before the July 29-30 meeting, Kugler asked Powell for a waiver so that she could trade during the blackout period in order to get rid of impermissible holdings. That request was denied.
Ms. Kugler did not attend the meeting and on Aug 1 she resigned
Ms. Kugler did not attend the meeting and on Aug 1 she resigned
NEW: Adriana Kugler, who abruptly left the Fed, repeatedly violated the central bank’s trading rules.
New disclosures show trades in individual stocks, like Apple, Southwest Airlines and Cava, many of which took place during the blackout period ahead of policy votes www.nytimes.com/2025/11/15/b...
New disclosures show trades in individual stocks, like Apple, Southwest Airlines and Cava, many of which took place during the blackout period ahead of policy votes www.nytimes.com/2025/11/15/b...
Former Fed Official Violated Trading Rules, Disclosures Show
www.nytimes.com
November 15, 2025 at 3:44 PM
NEW: Adriana Kugler, who abruptly left the Fed, repeatedly violated the central bank’s trading rules.
New disclosures show trades in individual stocks, like Apple, Southwest Airlines and Cava, many of which took place during the blackout period ahead of policy votes www.nytimes.com/2025/11/15/b...
New disclosures show trades in individual stocks, like Apple, Southwest Airlines and Cava, many of which took place during the blackout period ahead of policy votes www.nytimes.com/2025/11/15/b...