Colby Smith
@colbylsmith.bsky.social
@nytimes correspondent writing about the Federal Reserve and the US economy. Previously @FT, @TheEconomist, @BloombergTV. colby.smith@nytimes.com
As Consumer Bureau’s Cash Dwindles, Trump Administration Declares Its Funding Illegal www.nytimes.com/2025/11/12/b... @stacycowley.bsky.social @nytimes.com
November 12, 2025 at 9:53 PM
As Consumer Bureau’s Cash Dwindles, Trump Administration Declares Its Funding Illegal www.nytimes.com/2025/11/12/b... @stacycowley.bsky.social @nytimes.com
The Fed's recent rate decisions have been divisive. It's likely to get worse.
In one camp are officials like Hammack (Cleveland), who told @nytimes.com she preferred not to cut last month and suggested a December one was not needed. Others are more worried about the labor market
In one camp are officials like Hammack (Cleveland), who told @nytimes.com she preferred not to cut last month and suggested a December one was not needed. Others are more worried about the labor market
November 7, 2025 at 2:38 PM
The Fed's recent rate decisions have been divisive. It's likely to get worse.
In one camp are officials like Hammack (Cleveland), who told @nytimes.com she preferred not to cut last month and suggested a December one was not needed. Others are more worried about the labor market
In one camp are officials like Hammack (Cleveland), who told @nytimes.com she preferred not to cut last month and suggested a December one was not needed. Others are more worried about the labor market
The labor market is in focus as the Fed prepares to cut rates for a second-meeting in a row today despite inflation picking back up. But the shutdown has made it hard to know how significantly it is weakening www.nytimes.com/2025/10/28/b... @nytimes.com
October 29, 2025 at 3:28 PM
The labor market is in focus as the Fed prepares to cut rates for a second-meeting in a row today despite inflation picking back up. But the shutdown has made it hard to know how significantly it is weakening www.nytimes.com/2025/10/28/b... @nytimes.com
The Fed's strategy to cut rates in support of the labor market even as inflation rose was always considered risky. The shutdown has made it all the more treacherous, obscuring officials’ view of the economy as divisions have sharpened
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/28/b... @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/28/b... @nytimes.com
October 28, 2025 at 12:35 PM
The Fed's strategy to cut rates in support of the labor market even as inflation rose was always considered risky. The shutdown has made it all the more treacherous, obscuring officials’ view of the economy as divisions have sharpened
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/28/b... @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/28/b... @nytimes.com
New w/ @bencasselman.bsky.social: Wealthy Americans, buoyed by a booming stock market, are spending freely. Lower-income households, stung by inflation and a slowing labor market, are pulling back
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b... @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b... @nytimes.com
October 20, 2025 at 2:50 PM
New w/ @bencasselman.bsky.social: Wealthy Americans, buoyed by a booming stock market, are spending freely. Lower-income households, stung by inflation and a slowing labor market, are pulling back
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b... @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b... @nytimes.com
Powell's speech centers mostly on the balance sheet, which has become a key point of criticism from Bessent. But he also makes several points on the outlook, signaling the Fed is on track to keep cutting given downside risks to the labor market www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/b... @nytimes.com
October 14, 2025 at 4:25 PM
Powell's speech centers mostly on the balance sheet, which has become a key point of criticism from Bessent. But he also makes several points on the outlook, signaling the Fed is on track to keep cutting given downside risks to the labor market www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/b... @nytimes.com
Minutes from the Fed's September meeting underscore the divisions between policymakers about the path forward for policy. A few officials appeared reluctant to cut last month and a majority see upside risk to inflation. Still, most see scope to cut further this year
October 8, 2025 at 6:37 PM
Minutes from the Fed's September meeting underscore the divisions between policymakers about the path forward for policy. A few officials appeared reluctant to cut last month and a majority see upside risk to inflation. Still, most see scope to cut further this year
The Fed was already facing a tough decision about how quickly to lower rates this year. But that judgment call is set to get much harder if the shutdown deprives the central bank of essential data that help it gauge the state of the economy www.nytimes.com/2025/10/01/b... @nytimes.com
October 1, 2025 at 1:08 PM
The Fed was already facing a tough decision about how quickly to lower rates this year. But that judgment call is set to get much harder if the shutdown deprives the central bank of essential data that help it gauge the state of the economy www.nytimes.com/2025/10/01/b... @nytimes.com
Republicans are racing to get Trump's Fed pick confirmed before next week's policy meeting despite mounting concerns over his plans to take a temporary leave of absence from his job as one of the president's top economic advisers www.nytimes.com/2025/09/10/b... @nytimes.com @tonyromm.bsky.social
September 10, 2025 at 2:28 PM
Republicans are racing to get Trump's Fed pick confirmed before next week's policy meeting despite mounting concerns over his plans to take a temporary leave of absence from his job as one of the president's top economic advisers www.nytimes.com/2025/09/10/b... @nytimes.com @tonyromm.bsky.social
NEW: The court rules that Lisa Cook can stay on as a governor as her case against Trump trying to fire her is being litigated. The judge says that "for cause" applies to behavior while in office and that Cook's right to due process was violated
September 10, 2025 at 1:59 AM
NEW: The court rules that Lisa Cook can stay on as a governor as her case against Trump trying to fire her is being litigated. The judge says that "for cause" applies to behavior while in office and that Cook's right to due process was violated
In opening remarks to be delivered to the Senate Banking Committee tomorrow, Stephen Miran tries to alleviate concerns that he will only do the president's bidding if confirmed to join the Fed's board of governors www.banking.senate.gov/imo/media/do...
September 3, 2025 at 5:33 PM
In opening remarks to be delivered to the Senate Banking Committee tomorrow, Stephen Miran tries to alleviate concerns that he will only do the president's bidding if confirmed to join the Fed's board of governors www.banking.senate.gov/imo/media/do...
Ten days ago, Lisa Cook was simply one of seven members of the Fed's board of governors focused on a debate about rate cuts. Today, the future of the central bank and its independence from the White House rests squarely on her shoulders www.nytimes.com/2025/08/29/u... @nytimes.com
August 29, 2025 at 12:47 PM
Ten days ago, Lisa Cook was simply one of seven members of the Fed's board of governors focused on a debate about rate cuts. Today, the future of the central bank and its independence from the White House rests squarely on her shoulders www.nytimes.com/2025/08/29/u... @nytimes.com
In his final speech as chair at the Jackson Hole conference, Powell sends his strongest signal yet that the Fed is preparing to soon restart rate cuts, highlighting the labor market’s vulnerabilities even as inflation accelerates www.nytimes.com/2025/08/22/b... @nytimes.com
August 22, 2025 at 2:01 PM
In his final speech as chair at the Jackson Hole conference, Powell sends his strongest signal yet that the Fed is preparing to soon restart rate cuts, highlighting the labor market’s vulnerabilities even as inflation accelerates www.nytimes.com/2025/08/22/b... @nytimes.com
Fed governor Chris Waller officially backs a 25bp cut at the July meeting and says policy should be back to neutral
"With inflation near target and the upside risks to inflation limited, we should not wait until the labor market deteriorates before we cut the policy rate"
"With inflation near target and the upside risks to inflation limited, we should not wait until the labor market deteriorates before we cut the policy rate"
July 17, 2025 at 10:33 PM
Fed governor Chris Waller officially backs a 25bp cut at the July meeting and says policy should be back to neutral
"With inflation near target and the upside risks to inflation limited, we should not wait until the labor market deteriorates before we cut the policy rate"
"With inflation near target and the upside risks to inflation limited, we should not wait until the labor market deteriorates before we cut the policy rate"
Trump's tariffs are starting to leave a bigger imprint on the economy, pushing up prices in June for categories like household furnishings (furniture, appliances etc) that are heavily exposed to the levies in place
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/15/b... @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/15/b... @nytimes.com
July 15, 2025 at 1:12 PM
Trump's tariffs are starting to leave a bigger imprint on the economy, pushing up prices in June for categories like household furnishings (furniture, appliances etc) that are heavily exposed to the levies in place
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/15/b... @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/15/b... @nytimes.com
Goldman Sachs is now forecasting a September cut, earlier than its previous December call. They expect 75bps worth of cuts this year and another 50bps in 2026
June 30, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Goldman Sachs is now forecasting a September cut, earlier than its previous December call. They expect 75bps worth of cuts this year and another 50bps in 2026
Trump wants lower borrowing costs, but the Fed is doubling down on its stance that it can take its time to take any action
That 'wait-and-see' approach keeps it on a collision course with the president with little reprieve in sight
nytimes.com/2025/06/19/b... @tonyromm.bsky.social @nytimes.com
That 'wait-and-see' approach keeps it on a collision course with the president with little reprieve in sight
nytimes.com/2025/06/19/b... @tonyromm.bsky.social @nytimes.com
June 19, 2025 at 3:09 PM
Trump wants lower borrowing costs, but the Fed is doubling down on its stance that it can take its time to take any action
That 'wait-and-see' approach keeps it on a collision course with the president with little reprieve in sight
nytimes.com/2025/06/19/b... @tonyromm.bsky.social @nytimes.com
That 'wait-and-see' approach keeps it on a collision course with the president with little reprieve in sight
nytimes.com/2025/06/19/b... @tonyromm.bsky.social @nytimes.com
This is a very divided Fed. Nine of the 19 officials penciled in fewer cuts this year than the median forecast for 50bp worth of cuts, with seven forecasting no more reductions and two predicting just one quarter-point move
June 18, 2025 at 6:05 PM
This is a very divided Fed. Nine of the 19 officials penciled in fewer cuts this year than the median forecast for 50bp worth of cuts, with seven forecasting no more reductions and two predicting just one quarter-point move
The Fed will release a new set of economic projections at this meeting, including a dot plot showing where officials think rates are headed.
Economists are split as to whether it will show 1 or 2 cuts this year
www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06...
Economists are split as to whether it will show 1 or 2 cuts this year
www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06...
June 18, 2025 at 4:47 PM
The Fed will release a new set of economic projections at this meeting, including a dot plot showing where officials think rates are headed.
Economists are split as to whether it will show 1 or 2 cuts this year
www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06...
Economists are split as to whether it will show 1 or 2 cuts this year
www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06...
Barry Eichengreen on the Genius Act that just passed the Senate
www.nytimes.com/2025/06/17/o... @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/06/17/o... @nytimes.com
June 17, 2025 at 11:35 PM
Barry Eichengreen on the Genius Act that just passed the Senate
www.nytimes.com/2025/06/17/o... @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/06/17/o... @nytimes.com
There is still a path for the Fed to cut rates this year, but for now, the central bank's "wait-and-see" approach looks likely to extend at least through the summer as new inflation and growth risks flare up
www.nytimes.com/2025/06/17/b... @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/06/17/b... @nytimes.com
June 17, 2025 at 11:25 AM
There is still a path for the Fed to cut rates this year, but for now, the central bank's "wait-and-see" approach looks likely to extend at least through the summer as new inflation and growth risks flare up
www.nytimes.com/2025/06/17/b... @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/06/17/b... @nytimes.com
The standard thinking among economists is that tariffs raise consumer prices. So data released this week showing more muted inflationary pressures than expected at this stage raised an uncomfortable question: Are their predictions wrong?
www.nytimes.com/2025/06/13/b... @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/06/13/b... @nytimes.com
June 13, 2025 at 1:34 PM
The standard thinking among economists is that tariffs raise consumer prices. So data released this week showing more muted inflationary pressures than expected at this stage raised an uncomfortable question: Are their predictions wrong?
www.nytimes.com/2025/06/13/b... @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/06/13/b... @nytimes.com
Fed governor Kugler says in a speech that she is looking into the "potential lower desirability of U.S. financial assets in flight-to-safety events"
"It is crucial to examine how possible changes in the role of U.S. financial assets as a safe haven might affect financial stability"
"It is crucial to examine how possible changes in the role of U.S. financial assets as a safe haven might affect financial stability"
May 29, 2025 at 6:06 PM
Fed governor Kugler says in a speech that she is looking into the "potential lower desirability of U.S. financial assets in flight-to-safety events"
"It is crucial to examine how possible changes in the role of U.S. financial assets as a safe haven might affect financial stability"
"It is crucial to examine how possible changes in the role of U.S. financial assets as a safe haven might affect financial stability"
NEW: The US consumer has seemed unstoppable in recent years, spending throughout soaring inflation and the highest borrowing costs in decades. But as tariffs bite, they are starting to show signs of strain www.nytimes.com/interactive/... @nytimes.com @christinezhang.bsky.social
May 15, 2025 at 5:52 PM
NEW: The US consumer has seemed unstoppable in recent years, spending throughout soaring inflation and the highest borrowing costs in decades. But as tariffs bite, they are starting to show signs of strain www.nytimes.com/interactive/... @nytimes.com @christinezhang.bsky.social
In a new speech on Wednesday, Powell lays out how the Fed will deal with a "challenging scenario" in which its goals for 2% inflation and a healthy labor market are in tension with one another.
April 16, 2025 at 5:31 PM
In a new speech on Wednesday, Powell lays out how the Fed will deal with a "challenging scenario" in which its goals for 2% inflation and a healthy labor market are in tension with one another.