Claudia Sahm
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claudia-sahm.bsky.social
Claudia Sahm
@claudia-sahm.bsky.social

macro, fiscal, Fed. creator of the Sahm rule recession indicator. Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) Substack.

Claudia Rae Sahm is an American economist, currently serving as Chief Economist for New Century Advisors. She is also the founder of Sahm Consulting. Claudia was formerly director of macroeconomic policy at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, and a Section Chief at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, where she worked in various capacities from 2007 to 2019. Sahm specializes in macroeconomics and household finance. She is best known for the development of the Sahm rule, a Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) indicator for identifying recessions in real-time. .. more

Economics 57%
Business 32%

Merry Christmas 🎄

Reposted by Aaron Sojourner

All kidding aside, this is a very troubling post that should feature prominently in the Senate confirmation hearings. Reminder if the Senate doesn’t confirm anyone, Powell stays as Fed Chair.

#PuffiSays farm cousin Sprinkles is not impressed with the new monetary policy rule that dropped today.

Reposted by Claudia Sahm

The ‘move fast and break things’ approach of the White House has been discredited in so many domains this year and at a high human cost.

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan

At no point watching the 60 Minutes segment did I think, “gee, what would Stephen Miller have to say?”

Reposted by Claudia Sahm

Reposted by Claudia Sahm

Please take care of yourself, first and foremost. You deserve it. Your insights are always worth the wait!

Reposted by Dean Baker

I want to raise a few issues with this ...

- The unemployment rate was 4.6% in Nov 2025.

- There are 982,000 more unemployed people in Nov 2025 than in Jan 2025.

- There are 271,000 fewer federal government employees.

- 982,000 > 271,000. More than 3 times more unemployed.

I am using the median wage growth measure from Atlanta Fed. They also have income groupings. www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-gr...
Wage Growth Tracker
Measure of the wage growth of individuals. It is constructed using microdata from the Current Population Survey (CPS), and is the median percent change in the hourly wage of individuals observed 12 mo...
www.atlantafed.org

I agree it's striking, but we saw this extra sensitivity in 2008, too when gas/food prices rose sharply. In the 70s/80s there were more cost-of-living adjustments in contracts. Also, it's unexpected inflation that's a real problem, being blindsided in 2022 after years of low inflation was hard.

They are people.

We need years of income and wages rising faster than prices to undo the damage done during the pandemic. It’s more than restoring the ability to pay. It’s about improvements large enough to inspire confidence. It’s about consistency, too. stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/there-are-...
There are no shortcuts to affordability
As 2025 comes to a close, affordability is the lens through which all policymakers are being judged.
stayathomemacro.substack.com