macro, fiscal, Fed. creator of the Sahm rule recession indicator. Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) Substack.
Claudia Rae Sahm is an American economist, currently serving as Chief Economist for New Century Advisors. She is also the founder of Sahm Consulting. Claudia was formerly director of macroeconomic policy at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, and a Section Chief at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, where she worked in various capacities from 2007 to 2019. Sahm specializes in macroeconomics and household finance. She is best known for the development of the Sahm rule, a Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) indicator for identifying recessions in real-time. .. more
Reposted by Aaron Sojourner
Reposted by Brendan Nyhan
Reposted by Trevon D. Logan, Dan Immergluck
- The unemployment rate was 4.6% in Nov 2025.
- There are 982,000 more unemployed people in Nov 2025 than in Jan 2025.
- There are 271,000 fewer federal government employees.
- 982,000 > 271,000. More than 3 times more unemployed.