Claudia Sahm
@claudia-sahm.bsky.social
macro, fiscal, Fed. creator of the Sahm rule recession indicator. Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) Substack.
It’s truly a loss today. First time since 1948, the government didn’t collect information on unemployment. www.youtube.com/watch?v=6isk...
Government Shutdown Delays US Jobs Data for Second Month
YouTube video by Bloomberg Podcasts
www.youtube.com
November 7, 2025 at 6:31 PM
It’s truly a loss today. First time since 1948, the government didn’t collect information on unemployment. www.youtube.com/watch?v=6isk...
Reposted by Claudia Sahm
Every month for the last 77 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has estimated Americans' unemployment rate
This streak dies tomorrow
Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months
This blind spot will remain forever
This streak dies tomorrow
Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months
This blind spot will remain forever
Here's the planned BLS data release schedule for Nov 2025.
On Tues, it couldn't release Sept job openings, hires, layoffs and firings data.
This morning, it couldn't release 2025Q3 business Productivity and Costs data.
Tomorrow, it can't release Oct 2025 #JobsReport
www.bls.gov/schedule/202...
On Tues, it couldn't release Sept job openings, hires, layoffs and firings data.
This morning, it couldn't release 2025Q3 business Productivity and Costs data.
Tomorrow, it can't release Oct 2025 #JobsReport
www.bls.gov/schedule/202...
November 6, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Every month for the last 77 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has estimated Americans' unemployment rate
This streak dies tomorrow
Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months
This blind spot will remain forever
This streak dies tomorrow
Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months
This blind spot will remain forever
The K-shaped economy is exactly what restrictive monetary policy looks like. While the Fed's goals are for the overall economy, its tool of interest rates affects financially constrained households and firms the most. My new @opinion.bloomberg.com piece. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
How the Fed Can Change the K-Shaped Economy
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell agrees that there’s probably something to the claims of a K-shaped economy. But at last week’s press conference, he failed to note how the Fed has helped to create ...
www.bloomberg.com
November 5, 2025 at 6:22 PM
The K-shaped economy is exactly what restrictive monetary policy looks like. While the Fed's goals are for the overall economy, its tool of interest rates affects financially constrained households and firms the most. My new @opinion.bloomberg.com piece. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Reposted by Claudia Sahm
Reposted by Claudia Sahm
One of the justifications for the Trump administration’s tariffs has been raising revenue: The United States raised roughly $30 billion in tariff revenue in August.
But, in a new explainer, @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social shows why raising revenue via tariffs is bad for the U.S. economy:
But, in a new explainer, @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social shows why raising revenue via tariffs is bad for the U.S. economy:
Tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise revenue - The Hamilton Project
In this explainer, Jay C. Shambaugh shows why tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise funds for the U.S. government.
www.hamiltonproject.org
November 4, 2025 at 5:03 PM
One of the justifications for the Trump administration’s tariffs has been raising revenue: The United States raised roughly $30 billion in tariff revenue in August.
But, in a new explainer, @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social shows why raising revenue via tariffs is bad for the U.S. economy:
But, in a new explainer, @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social shows why raising revenue via tariffs is bad for the U.S. economy:
In evaluating today's "curious kind of balance" in the labor market, we need to put it in the context of the many curiosities of the labor market during this cycle.
That's part of the reason why I do not see a recessionary dynamic now ...
stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/a-curious-...
That's part of the reason why I do not see a recessionary dynamic now ...
stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/a-curious-...
A Curious Kind of Cycle
Today’s post is an excerpt of a talk I gave last week at the Forecasters Club of New York.
stayathomemacro.substack.com
November 3, 2025 at 9:24 PM
In evaluating today's "curious kind of balance" in the labor market, we need to put it in the context of the many curiosities of the labor market during this cycle.
That's part of the reason why I do not see a recessionary dynamic now ...
stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/a-curious-...
That's part of the reason why I do not see a recessionary dynamic now ...
stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/a-curious-...
It's amazing how much airtime 'talking your dot' can fill.
Happy Fed blackout y’all. It was getting a little active out there.
October 17, 2025 at 9:47 PM
It's amazing how much airtime 'talking your dot' can fill.
Reposted by Claudia Sahm
I modified the #SahmRule, by @claudia-sahm.bsky.social, creating 3.2k spacial Sahm Rules, which show that #recession exposure can differ by place/time.
The bellwether of recessions are rich/white counties but they're slow; the fastest indicators are poor/black counties, but they're noisy.
The bellwether of recessions are rich/white counties but they're slow; the fastest indicators are poor/black counties, but they're noisy.
October 16, 2025 at 12:37 AM
I modified the #SahmRule, by @claudia-sahm.bsky.social, creating 3.2k spacial Sahm Rules, which show that #recession exposure can differ by place/time.
The bellwether of recessions are rich/white counties but they're slow; the fastest indicators are poor/black counties, but they're noisy.
The bellwether of recessions are rich/white counties but they're slow; the fastest indicators are poor/black counties, but they're noisy.
hard to see any reaction to the government shutdown in the Michigan Survey ... typically such dysfunction leaves an imprint. of course, views were already quite downbeat.
October 10, 2025 at 2:46 PM
hard to see any reaction to the government shutdown in the Michigan Survey ... typically such dysfunction leaves an imprint. of course, views were already quite downbeat.
Reposted by Claudia Sahm
SCOOP: The Bureau of Labor Statistics is preparing to release the September C.P.I. report despite the shutdown. (Exact date still unclear -- almost certainly not the original Oct. 15 date.) #EconSky #NumbersDay
October 9, 2025 at 9:16 PM
SCOOP: The Bureau of Labor Statistics is preparing to release the September C.P.I. report despite the shutdown. (Exact date still unclear -- almost certainly not the original Oct. 15 date.) #EconSky #NumbersDay
"“At a moment like this, as complicated as monetary policy is, if everybody were in agreement, I would actually be worried that they're missing something,” Sahm said." .... Looking forward to the FOMC minutes tomorrow. www.marketplace.org/story/2025/1...
The Fed minutes may hint at what's next for interest rates
The minutes are dry, but they contain clues about what the central bank might do next.
www.marketplace.org
October 7, 2025 at 9:45 PM
"“At a moment like this, as complicated as monetary policy is, if everybody were in agreement, I would actually be worried that they're missing something,” Sahm said." .... Looking forward to the FOMC minutes tomorrow. www.marketplace.org/story/2025/1...
The President could have designated a handful of BLS employees essential and given us the September employment report today. Instead, we got this ...
October 3, 2025 at 5:33 PM
The President could have designated a handful of BLS employees essential and given us the September employment report today. Instead, we got this ...
Reposted by Claudia Sahm
The @profgalloway.com Markets podcast interviews @claudia-sahm.bsky.social for a take on Fed independence and market reactions overcast.fm/+ABIYtSt8U4I
What Happens if the Fed is Compromised — ft. Claudia Sahm — Prof G Markets
Ed and Scott are joined by Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors and former Fed Section Chief, for a conversation on the Fed’s independence. Claudia weighs in on the health of the U.S....
overcast.fm
October 3, 2025 at 2:01 PM
The @profgalloway.com Markets podcast interviews @claudia-sahm.bsky.social for a take on Fed independence and market reactions overcast.fm/+ABIYtSt8U4I
"Economists stress that the Fed is not flying blind. Sahm said a better description was that the central bank is driving with a dirty windshield.
“They will find ways to bring information in. They have navigated shutdowns before. They will make the best of what they have,” she said."
“They will find ways to bring information in. They have navigated shutdowns before. They will make the best of what they have,” she said."
The Federal Reserve is already staring down the difficult task of determining interest-rate policy in the midst of a sluggish labor market and high inflation. Now the government shutdown could make the central bank’s job even harder.
Government shutdown means Fed lacks crucial data as it considers rate cuts
It’s a bad time for the data to disappear.
trib.al
October 2, 2025 at 6:56 PM
"Economists stress that the Fed is not flying blind. Sahm said a better description was that the central bank is driving with a dirty windshield.
“They will find ways to bring information in. They have navigated shutdowns before. They will make the best of what they have,” she said."
“They will find ways to bring information in. They have navigated shutdowns before. They will make the best of what they have,” she said."
"The White House’s ‘move fast and break things’ attack on the Fed hit a roadblock yesterday: the Supreme Court."
stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/slow-down-...
stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/slow-down-...
Slow down and protect things: Fed independence and the Supreme Court
The White House’s ‘move fast and break things’ attack on the Fed hit a roadblock yesterday: the Supreme Court.
stayathomemacro.substack.com
October 2, 2025 at 3:20 PM
"The White House’s ‘move fast and break things’ attack on the Fed hit a roadblock yesterday: the Supreme Court."
stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/slow-down-...
stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/slow-down-...
THIS IS VERY VERY GOOD NEWS.
BREAKING: Supreme Court will allow Lisa Cook to remain on federal reserve board for now, ruling that the government’s application for a stay is deferred pending oral argument in January 2026
October 1, 2025 at 2:56 PM
THIS IS VERY VERY GOOD NEWS.
How does the Fed selling assets raise their price (lower the yield)?
Warsh says “interest rates can be made lower.” He draws a distinction between the Fed’s short-term policy rate and long-term rates for mortgages and other financial products. It’s the latter he’s more concerned about. He will lower long rates primarily by ridding the Fed of its financial assets
September 30, 2025 at 8:15 PM
How does the Fed selling assets raise their price (lower the yield)?
Reposted by Claudia Sahm
New post, I finally wrote my thoughts on the Stephen Miran Federal Reserve speech.
I think it shows yet another reason for central bank independence. Without it, you can't tell what's a genuine outsider take and what's just carrying water for the Executive.
mikekonczal.substack.com/p/mirans-cas...
I think it shows yet another reason for central bank independence. Without it, you can't tell what's a genuine outsider take and what's just carrying water for the Executive.
mikekonczal.substack.com/p/mirans-cas...
Miran’s Case for Cuts: A Reminder of Why Independence is Essential
Stephen Miran's recent speech highlights not just a debate over r*, but the deeper risks of allowing White House talking points to shape monetary policy.
mikekonczal.substack.com
September 29, 2025 at 7:47 PM
New post, I finally wrote my thoughts on the Stephen Miran Federal Reserve speech.
I think it shows yet another reason for central bank independence. Without it, you can't tell what's a genuine outsider take and what's just carrying water for the Executive.
mikekonczal.substack.com/p/mirans-cas...
I think it shows yet another reason for central bank independence. Without it, you can't tell what's a genuine outsider take and what's just carrying water for the Executive.
mikekonczal.substack.com/p/mirans-cas...
Similar to Miran (and Bessent) in my post, Bowman, in her speech last week, had an anti-data vibe. www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
September 29, 2025 at 5:19 PM
Similar to Miran (and Bessent) in my post, Bowman, in her speech last week, had an anti-data vibe. www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
Reposted by Claudia Sahm
JOLTS preview:
1/ Unless we avert a government shutdown, tomorrow morning's JOLTS release (August) will be the last major government update on the labor market for a while.
We saw a teeny bit of hiring softness in June/July, but...
1/ Unless we avert a government shutdown, tomorrow morning's JOLTS release (August) will be the last major government update on the labor market for a while.
We saw a teeny bit of hiring softness in June/July, but...
September 29, 2025 at 5:07 PM
JOLTS preview:
1/ Unless we avert a government shutdown, tomorrow morning's JOLTS release (August) will be the last major government update on the labor market for a while.
We saw a teeny bit of hiring softness in June/July, but...
1/ Unless we avert a government shutdown, tomorrow morning's JOLTS release (August) will be the last major government update on the labor market for a while.
We saw a teeny bit of hiring softness in June/July, but...
This season of The Apprentice is getting really old.
September 29, 2025 at 12:25 AM
This season of The Apprentice is getting really old.
FT survey is not an outlier. Near unanimous support for Waller in survey of former Fed officials and staff. econ.duke.edu/news/new-sur...
September 28, 2025 at 5:00 PM
FT survey is not an outlier. Near unanimous support for Waller in survey of former Fed officials and staff. econ.duke.edu/news/new-sur...
Reposted by Claudia Sahm
And I thought we were supposed to ignore the Twitter trolls.
Trump's lawyers tell SCOTUS that Lisa Cook has not attempted to deny, explain, or justify the facially contradictory, material representations in two mortgage agreements that she
executed just two weeks apart.... "Her silence on this point speaks volumes."
www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/25...
executed just two weeks apart.... "Her silence on this point speaks volumes."
www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/25...
September 27, 2025 at 12:26 AM
And I thought we were supposed to ignore the Twitter trolls.