Mark G. Sheppard
@markgsheppard.com
Inequality/Mobility. Researcher @NBER.org.
3rd Year Econ PhD, The Graduate Center.
2nd Lt., U.S. National Guard.
Former Congressional Staff.
3rd Year Econ PhD, The Graduate Center.
2nd Lt., U.S. National Guard.
Former Congressional Staff.
Pinned
Mark G. Sheppard
@markgsheppard.com
· Feb 13
🚨 NEW INTERACTIVE RECESSION TOOL 🚨
The #SahmRule is the best tools we have to indicate a recession. I extend the logic laid out by
@claudia-sahm.bsky.social, building off work by
@pmichaillat.bsky.social and Saez, to create an interactive tool. #EconSky
markgsheppard.github.io/SahmRule/int...
The #SahmRule is the best tools we have to indicate a recession. I extend the logic laid out by
@claudia-sahm.bsky.social, building off work by
@pmichaillat.bsky.social and Saez, to create an interactive tool. #EconSky
markgsheppard.github.io/SahmRule/int...
Using political betting market data, the Path to 51 for Democrats involves holding the line on a whole suite of battleground states, while also picking up: Maine, Ohio, and Iowa.
This would probably involve supporting progressive candidates in Maine/Ohio, but a more moderate candidate in Iowa.
This would probably involve supporting progressive candidates in Maine/Ohio, but a more moderate candidate in Iowa.
November 10, 2025 at 11:40 PM
Using political betting market data, the Path to 51 for Democrats involves holding the line on a whole suite of battleground states, while also picking up: Maine, Ohio, and Iowa.
This would probably involve supporting progressive candidates in Maine/Ohio, but a more moderate candidate in Iowa.
This would probably involve supporting progressive candidates in Maine/Ohio, but a more moderate candidate in Iowa.
For progressives heartened by the recent election results and looking to 2026, the Senate map/math is bad. Based on betting market data, the clearest path to 51 for liberals is to defend GA/MI/MN/NM/VA, and flip NC/ME, and IA.
This is much harder than it seems. But that's the map.
This is much harder than it seems. But that's the map.
November 10, 2025 at 12:26 AM
For progressives heartened by the recent election results and looking to 2026, the Senate map/math is bad. Based on betting market data, the clearest path to 51 for liberals is to defend GA/MI/MN/NM/VA, and flip NC/ME, and IA.
This is much harder than it seems. But that's the map.
This is much harder than it seems. But that's the map.
Reposted by Mark G. Sheppard
The Race and Stratification Working Group at @nber.org will have its annual meeting on Friday, March 27, 2026. Francisca Antman, Bocar Ba, Robynn Cox and I are organizing the program. December 11, 2025 is the deadline to submit your paper!
www.nber.org/conferences/...
www.nber.org/conferences/...
Economics of Race and Stratification, Spring 2026
www.nber.org
November 8, 2025 at 9:26 PM
The Race and Stratification Working Group at @nber.org will have its annual meeting on Friday, March 27, 2026. Francisca Antman, Bocar Ba, Robynn Cox and I are organizing the program. December 11, 2025 is the deadline to submit your paper!
www.nber.org/conferences/...
www.nber.org/conferences/...
Considering whether or not the 2026 midterms will be a wave election might be premature, but statistically Democrats overperformed in the recent election relative to this time in Trump's first term by about +3.5 points.
November 7, 2025 at 5:58 PM
Considering whether or not the 2026 midterms will be a wave election might be premature, but statistically Democrats overperformed in the recent election relative to this time in Trump's first term by about +3.5 points.
$27M on the #GovernmentShutdown lasting more than 35 days. This is historic levels of bad governance.
November 4, 2025 at 10:06 PM
$27M on the #GovernmentShutdown lasting more than 35 days. This is historic levels of bad governance.
"...there are sectors of the economy that are in recession."
Downturns are relative. Recessions are not uniform events. They effect sectors and groups differently.
Downturns are relative. Recessions are not uniform events. They effect sectors and groups differently.
TAPPER: Do you agree that the US is at risk of a recession?
BESSENT: I believe we are in a transition period here. I think we're in good shape, but there are sectors of the economy that are in recession
BESSENT: I believe we are in a transition period here. I think we're in good shape, but there are sectors of the economy that are in recession
November 2, 2025 at 11:06 PM
"...there are sectors of the economy that are in recession."
Downturns are relative. Recessions are not uniform events. They effect sectors and groups differently.
Downturns are relative. Recessions are not uniform events. They effect sectors and groups differently.
Reposted by Mark G. Sheppard
No evidence of an unusual number of layoffs happening in regular state unemployment insurance program data.
The data is filed weekly by states despite the fed shutdown & available thru week ending 10/18/25.
Thnx @econberger.bsky.social for helping me get up to speed on this data source.
The data is filed weekly by states despite the fed shutdown & available thru week ending 10/18/25.
Thnx @econberger.bsky.social for helping me get up to speed on this data source.
October 30, 2025 at 4:31 PM
Reposted by Mark G. Sheppard
My friend Danilo Santa Cruz made this GPT that reviews your empirical econ paper drafts.
Your own personal Reviewer #2!
Tried it myself – highly recommend
#EconSky
chatgpt.com/g/g-68ff8a0e...
Your own personal Reviewer #2!
Tried it myself – highly recommend
#EconSky
chatgpt.com/g/g-68ff8a0e...
ChatGPT - Proof Patrol for Empirical Econ (GPT)
Specialist AI for empirical econ papers. Delivers surgical, line-referenced fixes on identification, estimation, and inference; audits IV, DiD (staggered), RDD, clustering, FDR, and narrative↔table co...
chatgpt.com
October 30, 2025 at 5:18 PM
My friend Danilo Santa Cruz made this GPT that reviews your empirical econ paper drafts.
Your own personal Reviewer #2!
Tried it myself – highly recommend
#EconSky
chatgpt.com/g/g-68ff8a0e...
Your own personal Reviewer #2!
Tried it myself – highly recommend
#EconSky
chatgpt.com/g/g-68ff8a0e...
Reposted by Mark G. Sheppard
In the current social media vibescape this has felt more of a LinkedIn thing to share, but earlier this month an introductory chapter I co-authored for a special issue of the journal Human Service Organizations: Management, Leadership, & Governance was published. Here it is: doi.org/10.1080/2330...
Social Innovation, Entrepreneurship, and Enterprise in Social Work and Human Services: Recasting the Historical Evolution of a Global Phenomenon
This introductory article to the special issue, Social Innovation, Social Enterprise, and Social Entrepreneurship (SE/SI) in Social Work and Human Services, positions SE/SI as embedded in the profe...
doi.org
October 29, 2025 at 2:57 AM
In the current social media vibescape this has felt more of a LinkedIn thing to share, but earlier this month an introductory chapter I co-authored for a special issue of the journal Human Service Organizations: Management, Leadership, & Governance was published. Here it is: doi.org/10.1080/2330...
And also variable definition.
To determine “more extreme” or “more moderate” based on what, DW nominate absolute distance from party mean or something.
Like there’s so much that’s questionable about this methodology.
To determine “more extreme” or “more moderate” based on what, DW nominate absolute distance from party mean or something.
Like there’s so much that’s questionable about this methodology.
These results are highly dependent on model specification and choice of baseline — and even then, the group finds moderates only beat median party members by about 1.5 points on avg, w/ lots of uncertainty. I think this is worth taking into account when making prescriptions for future party strategy
CA isn't close in terms of partisanship. If you're actually interested in this question, I recommend reading Part 6 of the report. Lots of great empirics there.
decidingtowin.org
decidingtowin.org
October 28, 2025 at 8:30 PM
And also variable definition.
To determine “more extreme” or “more moderate” based on what, DW nominate absolute distance from party mean or something.
Like there’s so much that’s questionable about this methodology.
To determine “more extreme” or “more moderate” based on what, DW nominate absolute distance from party mean or something.
Like there’s so much that’s questionable about this methodology.
Reposted by Mark G. Sheppard
I made an image of all the art posted by US DOL on X since approximately Labor Day
October 26, 2025 at 1:07 AM
I made an image of all the art posted by US DOL on X since approximately Labor Day
Musk got a $1T package but has “realized” basically $0. Using “realized” options is not just wrong, it would code the richest man in history as basically homeless.
This is indefensible.
This is indefensible.
October 28, 2025 at 1:09 PM
Musk got a $1T package but has “realized” basically $0. Using “realized” options is not just wrong, it would code the richest man in history as basically homeless.
This is indefensible.
This is indefensible.
Reposted by Mark G. Sheppard
The violent history of segregation and desegregation is a reminder of why safe routes mattered —not just for children— but for adults, too. Contribute your story to this important story. Your story of segregation is history, too.
greenbookproject.osu.edu
#GreenBookProject
#EconSky
#CommunityMap
greenbookproject.osu.edu
#GreenBookProject
#EconSky
#CommunityMap
October 27, 2025 at 3:24 PM
The violent history of segregation and desegregation is a reminder of why safe routes mattered —not just for children— but for adults, too. Contribute your story to this important story. Your story of segregation is history, too.
greenbookproject.osu.edu
#GreenBookProject
#EconSky
#CommunityMap
greenbookproject.osu.edu
#GreenBookProject
#EconSky
#CommunityMap
Respectfully professor, this feels both technically-true but also seems to intentionally-miss-the-point.
The two big drivers of this result:
1. The cross section
2. Options “realized”
Use a longer horizon and a different top-end measure, and this ratio goes to infinity. #EconSky
The two big drivers of this result:
1. The cross section
2. Options “realized”
Use a longer horizon and a different top-end measure, and this ratio goes to infinity. #EconSky
October 27, 2025 at 4:29 AM
Respectfully professor, this feels both technically-true but also seems to intentionally-miss-the-point.
The two big drivers of this result:
1. The cross section
2. Options “realized”
Use a longer horizon and a different top-end measure, and this ratio goes to infinity. #EconSky
The two big drivers of this result:
1. The cross section
2. Options “realized”
Use a longer horizon and a different top-end measure, and this ratio goes to infinity. #EconSky
Reposted by Mark G. Sheppard
The New York Times editorial board thinks Democrats should “move to the center.”
Where the hell is the center between democracy and fascism?
Where the hell is the center between democracy and fascism?
October 26, 2025 at 4:01 PM
The New York Times editorial board thinks Democrats should “move to the center.”
Where the hell is the center between democracy and fascism?
Where the hell is the center between democracy and fascism?
Some of my statistics students told me they are using what they learned in my class to bet on Fed Rate cuts... idk how to feel because I'm not a gambler, but they're also not bad bets. #EconSky
a man in a suit and tie wears a hard hat
ALT: a man in a suit and tie wears a hard hat
media.tenor.com
October 27, 2025 at 1:56 AM
Some of my statistics students told me they are using what they learned in my class to bet on Fed Rate cuts... idk how to feel because I'm not a gambler, but they're also not bad bets. #EconSky
As a fan of design, I’ve always been a fan of the fact that honey containers are one of the only physical commodities that have a maximalist design.
October 27, 2025 at 12:00 AM
As a fan of design, I’ve always been a fan of the fact that honey containers are one of the only physical commodities that have a maximalist design.
In my county-level Sahm Rule work, several Midwestern areas have been signaling labor-market softening for a while—including parts of Iowa—so this tracks with what the research I've been working on has been showing.
October 26, 2025 at 9:40 PM
In my county-level Sahm Rule work, several Midwestern areas have been signaling labor-market softening for a while—including parts of Iowa—so this tracks with what the research I've been working on has been showing.
Reposted by Mark G. Sheppard
a16z funded startups are literally “social media bots that seem real” and “tiktok for online gambling.”
Though I guess a16z-backed startups have a lot in common with a16z-backed politicians
Though I guess a16z-backed startups have a lot in common with a16z-backed politicians
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October 26, 2025 at 12:27 AM
a16z funded startups are literally “social media bots that seem real” and “tiktok for online gambling.”
Though I guess a16z-backed startups have a lot in common with a16z-backed politicians
Though I guess a16z-backed startups have a lot in common with a16z-backed politicians
Reposted by Mark G. Sheppard
We are recruiting postdocs at DIL this year. Please apply!
www.aeaweb.org/joe/listing....
#EconJobMarket #EconSky
www.aeaweb.org/joe/listing....
#EconJobMarket #EconSky
American Economic Association: JOE Listings - August 1, 2025 - January 31, 2026
www.aeaweb.org
October 26, 2025 at 2:58 AM
Reposted by Mark G. Sheppard
Clearly “Increase Taxes on the Wealthiest” is a winning position.
interesting @natecohn.bsky.social
in 4 of 5 cases, "fewer people said the city 'should' enact the proposal than said they 'support' the same policy... 60% of New Yorkers said they supported free city buses, but only 44 percent said the city 'should' make buses free" www.nytimes.com/2025/09/10/u...
in 4 of 5 cases, "fewer people said the city 'should' enact the proposal than said they 'support' the same policy... 60% of New Yorkers said they supported free city buses, but only 44 percent said the city 'should' make buses free" www.nytimes.com/2025/09/10/u...
October 25, 2025 at 5:44 PM
Clearly “Increase Taxes on the Wealthiest” is a winning position.
As SNAP benefits look to get cut, the White House gets a gilded makeover, and the blame game over “who caused the shutdown?” rages, one empirical fact that gets overlooked is: Donald Trump is the only president —in history— who cannot manage to strike a deal with his own party.
Donald Trump has had more government shutdowns under unified party control than all other U.S. president —combined. Trump also presided over the longest shutdown, and will likely surpass that record.
This is not gridlock, this is bad governance.
#EconSky #GovernmentShutdown
This is not gridlock, this is bad governance.
#EconSky #GovernmentShutdown
October 25, 2025 at 6:48 PM
As SNAP benefits look to get cut, the White House gets a gilded makeover, and the blame game over “who caused the shutdown?” rages, one empirical fact that gets overlooked is: Donald Trump is the only president —in history— who cannot manage to strike a deal with his own party.
Reposted by Mark G. Sheppard
October 25, 2025 at 5:03 PM
Reposted by Mark G. Sheppard
Steven Durlauf (@durlauf.bsky.social) speaks to @thehill.com on the Trump Administration’s college compact, emphasizing that debates over diversity should take place within institutions themselves.
thehill.com/homenews/edu...
thehill.com/homenews/edu...
thehill.com
October 24, 2025 at 7:56 PM
Steven Durlauf (@durlauf.bsky.social) speaks to @thehill.com on the Trump Administration’s college compact, emphasizing that debates over diversity should take place within institutions themselves.
thehill.com/homenews/edu...
thehill.com/homenews/edu...