Mark G. Sheppard
@markgsheppard.com
Inequality/Mobility. Researcher @NBER.org.
3rd Year Econ PhD, The Graduate Center.
2nd Lt., U.S. National Guard.
Former Congressional Staff.
3rd Year Econ PhD, The Graduate Center.
2nd Lt., U.S. National Guard.
Former Congressional Staff.
Pinned
Mark G. Sheppard
@markgsheppard.com
· Feb 13
🚨 NEW INTERACTIVE RECESSION TOOL 🚨
The #SahmRule is the best tools we have to indicate a recession. I extend the logic laid out by
@claudia-sahm.bsky.social, building off work by
@pmichaillat.bsky.social and Saez, to create an interactive tool. #EconSky
markgsheppard.github.io/SahmRule/int...
The #SahmRule is the best tools we have to indicate a recession. I extend the logic laid out by
@claudia-sahm.bsky.social, building off work by
@pmichaillat.bsky.social and Saez, to create an interactive tool. #EconSky
markgsheppard.github.io/SahmRule/int...
Reposted by Mark G. Sheppard
Breaking news: The SEPTEMBER JOBS REPORT comes out on THURSDAY., Nov. 20.
BLS will announce revised news release dates on this page as they become available.
#econsky @aaronsojourner.org
www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lap...
BLS will announce revised news release dates on this page as they become available.
#econsky @aaronsojourner.org
www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lap...
Revised news release dates following the 2025 lapse in appropriations
Revised news release dates following the 2025 lapse in appropriations
www.bls.gov
November 14, 2025 at 9:55 PM
Breaking news: The SEPTEMBER JOBS REPORT comes out on THURSDAY., Nov. 20.
BLS will announce revised news release dates on this page as they become available.
#econsky @aaronsojourner.org
www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lap...
BLS will announce revised news release dates on this page as they become available.
#econsky @aaronsojourner.org
www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lap...
Reposted by Mark G. Sheppard
The shutdown is over. The data drought is not.
What we know (and mostly don't) about when the data flow will resume, what we'll never get, and what the lasting damage could be:
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/14/b... #EconSky
What we know (and mostly don't) about when the data flow will resume, what we'll never get, and what the lasting damage could be:
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/14/b... #EconSky
A Reopened Government Hasn’t Ended Delays for Economic Data
www.nytimes.com
November 14, 2025 at 6:15 PM
The shutdown is over. The data drought is not.
What we know (and mostly don't) about when the data flow will resume, what we'll never get, and what the lasting damage could be:
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/14/b... #EconSky
What we know (and mostly don't) about when the data flow will resume, what we'll never get, and what the lasting damage could be:
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/14/b... #EconSky
Reposted by Mark G. Sheppard
“.. The share of subprime borrowers at least 60 days past due on their auto loans rose to 6.65% in October, the highest in data going back to 1994 ..”
@bloomberg.com
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
@bloomberg.com
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 12, 2025 at 11:40 PM
“.. The share of subprime borrowers at least 60 days past due on their auto loans rose to 6.65% in October, the highest in data going back to 1994 ..”
@bloomberg.com
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
@bloomberg.com
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted by Mark G. Sheppard
BLS operations are back up! Release dates have been set for some missing reports. The next #jobsday will be Thursday, November 20 where we will get to see data for September 2025.
#NumbersDay #EconSky
#NumbersDay #EconSky
November 14, 2025 at 8:51 PM
BLS operations are back up! Release dates have been set for some missing reports. The next #jobsday will be Thursday, November 20 where we will get to see data for September 2025.
#NumbersDay #EconSky
#NumbersDay #EconSky
Reposted by Mark G. Sheppard
Every month for the last 77 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has estimated Americans' unemployment rate
This streak dies tomorrow
Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months
This blind spot will remain forever
This streak dies tomorrow
Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months
This blind spot will remain forever
Here's the planned BLS data release schedule for Nov 2025.
On Tues, it couldn't release Sept job openings, hires, layoffs and firings data.
This morning, it couldn't release 2025Q3 business Productivity and Costs data.
Tomorrow, it can't release Oct 2025 #JobsReport
www.bls.gov/schedule/202...
On Tues, it couldn't release Sept job openings, hires, layoffs and firings data.
This morning, it couldn't release 2025Q3 business Productivity and Costs data.
Tomorrow, it can't release Oct 2025 #JobsReport
www.bls.gov/schedule/202...
November 6, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Every month for the last 77 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has estimated Americans' unemployment rate
This streak dies tomorrow
Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months
This blind spot will remain forever
This streak dies tomorrow
Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months
This blind spot will remain forever
Reposted by Mark G. Sheppard
Trump and his cronies claim “children want to work in dangerous jobs,” so states should be allowed to ignore federal child labor laws.
State lawmakers! Now is the time to step up and ensure their laws protect children’s health and well-being.
State lawmakers! Now is the time to step up and ensure their laws protect children’s health and well-being.
Child labor standards: State solutions to the U.S. worker rights crisis
What does current federal law say about child labor? The 1938 Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA) sets guidelines for the hours and nonhazardous jobs for which employers can hire minors under 16. The FLSA...
www.epi.org
November 14, 2025 at 6:24 PM
Trump and his cronies claim “children want to work in dangerous jobs,” so states should be allowed to ignore federal child labor laws.
State lawmakers! Now is the time to step up and ensure their laws protect children’s health and well-being.
State lawmakers! Now is the time to step up and ensure their laws protect children’s health and well-being.
Reposted by Mark G. Sheppard
Allow me to translate. October data was not collected as field staff were all furloughed. In some cases, that data can be recovered from businesses. In other cases, the window to collect the data has closed (consumer prices, labor force status) and the data hole may be permanent.
WHITE HOUSE: FEDERAL STATISTICAL SYSTEM MAY HAVE PERMANENTLY BEEN DAMAGED WHITE HOUSE: OCTOBER JOBS REPORTS LIKELY NEVER RELEASED
November 12, 2025 at 9:35 PM
Allow me to translate. October data was not collected as field staff were all furloughed. In some cases, that data can be recovered from businesses. In other cases, the window to collect the data has closed (consumer prices, labor force status) and the data hole may be permanent.
One of the most rewarding parts about doing design work for this research project, especially as a PhD candidate, is just how intentional the researchers were. There’s a clear recognition of the humanity in the data and the dignity therein.
During Jim Crow, everything from restaraunts to stores to hotels to pharmacies to gas stations required making safe choices. They shaped every trip a Black person made. We document that history, and you can add your story to it here #CommunityMap: greenbookproject.osu.edu #GreenBookProject #EconSky
November 14, 2025 at 5:03 PM
One of the most rewarding parts about doing design work for this research project, especially as a PhD candidate, is just how intentional the researchers were. There’s a clear recognition of the humanity in the data and the dignity therein.
Reposted by Mark G. Sheppard
If you want more on wage boards and how they can achieve what Dani was referring to, check out my book The Wage Standard - now available for pre-order.
www.thewagestandard.com
www.thewagestandard.com
The Wage Standard by Arindrajit Dube: 9780593471418 | PenguinRandomHouse.com: Books
“The go-to guy on minimum wage” (Nobel Laureate and New York Times bestselling author Paul Krugman) tackles one of the thorniest social issues of our times—income inequality—from...
www.thewagestandard.com
November 4, 2025 at 1:45 PM
If you want more on wage boards and how they can achieve what Dani was referring to, check out my book The Wage Standard - now available for pre-order.
www.thewagestandard.com
www.thewagestandard.com
Reposted by Mark G. Sheppard
I sometimes feel like they don’t want to end poverty or reduce inequality because they believe they’re entitled to a class of people they can prey upon
November 14, 2025 at 4:49 PM
I sometimes feel like they don’t want to end poverty or reduce inequality because they believe they’re entitled to a class of people they can prey upon
Reposted by Mark G. Sheppard
Polls shows Americans approve of the deal to re-open the government by a wide margin
open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...
open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...
One way the shutdown deal might actually help Democrats
A plurality of voters approve of the deal to end the government shutdown. Democrats have an opportunity to claim they saved SNAP & other government programs, which could help repair the party's image
open.substack.com
November 14, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Polls shows Americans approve of the deal to re-open the government by a wide margin
open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...
open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...
“Inequality is not inevitable. It’s a policy choice” full co-sign.
Couldn’t agree more. I also find real inspiration in the clarity by which the next generation of economists is continuing the tradition of advocating for productive prescriptions for these issues.
Couldn’t agree more. I also find real inspiration in the clarity by which the next generation of economists is continuing the tradition of advocating for productive prescriptions for these issues.
Signed on this letter calling for a permanent International Panel on Inequality: a global, independent body to give policymakers the best evidence on the scale, causes, and consequences of inequality.
www.equals.ink/p/sign-on-le...
Inequality is not inevitable. It's a policy choice.
www.equals.ink/p/sign-on-le...
Inequality is not inevitable. It's a policy choice.
November 14, 2025 at 4:44 PM
“Inequality is not inevitable. It’s a policy choice” full co-sign.
Couldn’t agree more. I also find real inspiration in the clarity by which the next generation of economists is continuing the tradition of advocating for productive prescriptions for these issues.
Couldn’t agree more. I also find real inspiration in the clarity by which the next generation of economists is continuing the tradition of advocating for productive prescriptions for these issues.
Reposted by Mark G. Sheppard
The large uptick in federal unemployment insurance claims in the initial spate of layoffs last spring have been overshadowed nearly 10 fold by the UI claims of federal workers after the end of the fiscal year, in the longest ever government shutdown.
#NumbersDay #EconSky
#NumbersDay #EconSky
November 13, 2025 at 11:13 PM
The large uptick in federal unemployment insurance claims in the initial spate of layoffs last spring have been overshadowed nearly 10 fold by the UI claims of federal workers after the end of the fiscal year, in the longest ever government shutdown.
#NumbersDay #EconSky
#NumbersDay #EconSky
Reposted by Mark G. Sheppard
Deportations actually _increase_ housing prices because they shrink the construction industry.
The reduction in new houses being built swamps effects from lower demand
The reduction in new houses being built swamps effects from lower demand
November 13, 2025 at 10:52 PM
Deportations actually _increase_ housing prices because they shrink the construction industry.
The reduction in new houses being built swamps effects from lower demand
The reduction in new houses being built swamps effects from lower demand
Google Trends data shows that, since the shutdown halted the House oversight investigation, there has been no interest in Epstein's connection to Trump. But immediately upon returning, new evidence brings renewed public interest.
November 13, 2025 at 2:18 AM
Google Trends data shows that, since the shutdown halted the House oversight investigation, there has been no interest in Epstein's connection to Trump. But immediately upon returning, new evidence brings renewed public interest.
I drilled at 369 Regiment Armory for years, home of the “Harlem Hellfighters” the state’s first all-Black unit. Despite second-class citizenship at home, and absolutely horrifying front-line assignments abroad, the Hellfighters earned high honors in WWII.
The US is forever in their debt.
The US is forever in their debt.
Black veterans fought for freedom abroad and returned home to second class citizenship. Traveling while Black during Jim Crow was about survival, mobility, and dignity. The Green Book Project documents that story:
greenbookproject.org.ohio-state.edu
#GreenBookProject #CommunityMap #EconSky
greenbookproject.org.ohio-state.edu
#GreenBookProject #CommunityMap #EconSky
November 11, 2025 at 6:39 PM
I drilled at 369 Regiment Armory for years, home of the “Harlem Hellfighters” the state’s first all-Black unit. Despite second-class citizenship at home, and absolutely horrifying front-line assignments abroad, the Hellfighters earned high honors in WWII.
The US is forever in their debt.
The US is forever in their debt.
Reposted by Mark G. Sheppard
This Veterans Day I want to acknowledge the Black veterans of WWII who fought fascism and nazism and came home to fight for civil rights and democracy here. New research shows Black veterans were critical in securing the voting rights currently under attack.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
Homefront: Black Servicemembers and Black Voters in the Civil Rights Era
The role of Black World War II veterans in the Civil Rights Movement has been well documented, but the effect of Black military service on Black voting patterns remains unclear. Combining detailed in...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
November 11, 2025 at 12:10 PM
This Veterans Day I want to acknowledge the Black veterans of WWII who fought fascism and nazism and came home to fight for civil rights and democracy here. New research shows Black veterans were critical in securing the voting rights currently under attack.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
Using political betting market data, the Path to 51 for Democrats involves holding the line on a whole suite of battleground states, while also picking up: Maine, Ohio, and Iowa.
This would probably involve supporting progressive candidates in Maine/Ohio, but a more moderate candidate in Iowa.
This would probably involve supporting progressive candidates in Maine/Ohio, but a more moderate candidate in Iowa.
November 10, 2025 at 11:40 PM
Using political betting market data, the Path to 51 for Democrats involves holding the line on a whole suite of battleground states, while also picking up: Maine, Ohio, and Iowa.
This would probably involve supporting progressive candidates in Maine/Ohio, but a more moderate candidate in Iowa.
This would probably involve supporting progressive candidates in Maine/Ohio, but a more moderate candidate in Iowa.
For progressives heartened by the recent election results and looking to 2026, the Senate map/math is bad. Based on betting market data, the clearest path to 51 for liberals is to defend GA/MI/MN/NM/VA, and flip NC/ME, and IA.
This is much harder than it seems. But that's the map.
This is much harder than it seems. But that's the map.
November 10, 2025 at 12:26 AM
For progressives heartened by the recent election results and looking to 2026, the Senate map/math is bad. Based on betting market data, the clearest path to 51 for liberals is to defend GA/MI/MN/NM/VA, and flip NC/ME, and IA.
This is much harder than it seems. But that's the map.
This is much harder than it seems. But that's the map.
Reposted by Mark G. Sheppard
The Race and Stratification Working Group at @nber.org will have its annual meeting on Friday, March 27, 2026. Francisca Antman, Bocar Ba, Robynn Cox and I are organizing the program. December 11, 2025 is the deadline to submit your paper!
www.nber.org/conferences/...
www.nber.org/conferences/...
Economics of Race and Stratification, Spring 2026
www.nber.org
November 8, 2025 at 9:26 PM
The Race and Stratification Working Group at @nber.org will have its annual meeting on Friday, March 27, 2026. Francisca Antman, Bocar Ba, Robynn Cox and I are organizing the program. December 11, 2025 is the deadline to submit your paper!
www.nber.org/conferences/...
www.nber.org/conferences/...
Considering whether or not the 2026 midterms will be a wave election might be premature, but statistically Democrats overperformed in the recent election relative to this time in Trump's first term by about +3.5 points.
November 7, 2025 at 5:58 PM
Considering whether or not the 2026 midterms will be a wave election might be premature, but statistically Democrats overperformed in the recent election relative to this time in Trump's first term by about +3.5 points.
$27M on the #GovernmentShutdown lasting more than 35 days. This is historic levels of bad governance.
November 4, 2025 at 10:06 PM
$27M on the #GovernmentShutdown lasting more than 35 days. This is historic levels of bad governance.
"...there are sectors of the economy that are in recession."
Downturns are relative. Recessions are not uniform events. They effect sectors and groups differently.
Downturns are relative. Recessions are not uniform events. They effect sectors and groups differently.
TAPPER: Do you agree that the US is at risk of a recession?
BESSENT: I believe we are in a transition period here. I think we're in good shape, but there are sectors of the economy that are in recession
BESSENT: I believe we are in a transition period here. I think we're in good shape, but there are sectors of the economy that are in recession
November 2, 2025 at 11:06 PM
"...there are sectors of the economy that are in recession."
Downturns are relative. Recessions are not uniform events. They effect sectors and groups differently.
Downturns are relative. Recessions are not uniform events. They effect sectors and groups differently.
Reposted by Mark G. Sheppard
No evidence of an unusual number of layoffs happening in regular state unemployment insurance program data.
The data is filed weekly by states despite the fed shutdown & available thru week ending 10/18/25.
Thnx @econberger.bsky.social for helping me get up to speed on this data source.
The data is filed weekly by states despite the fed shutdown & available thru week ending 10/18/25.
Thnx @econberger.bsky.social for helping me get up to speed on this data source.
October 30, 2025 at 4:31 PM
Reposted by Mark G. Sheppard
My friend Danilo Santa Cruz made this GPT that reviews your empirical econ paper drafts.
Your own personal Reviewer #2!
Tried it myself – highly recommend
#EconSky
chatgpt.com/g/g-68ff8a0e...
Your own personal Reviewer #2!
Tried it myself – highly recommend
#EconSky
chatgpt.com/g/g-68ff8a0e...
ChatGPT - Proof Patrol for Empirical Econ (GPT)
Specialist AI for empirical econ papers. Delivers surgical, line-referenced fixes on identification, estimation, and inference; audits IV, DiD (staggered), RDD, clustering, FDR, and narrative↔table co...
chatgpt.com
October 30, 2025 at 5:18 PM
My friend Danilo Santa Cruz made this GPT that reviews your empirical econ paper drafts.
Your own personal Reviewer #2!
Tried it myself – highly recommend
#EconSky
chatgpt.com/g/g-68ff8a0e...
Your own personal Reviewer #2!
Tried it myself – highly recommend
#EconSky
chatgpt.com/g/g-68ff8a0e...