Claudia Sahm

@claudia-sahm.bsky.social

18K followers 400 following 420 posts

macro, fiscal, Fed. creator of the Sahm rule recession indicator. Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) Substack.

Videos

Claudia Rae Sahm is an American economist, currently serving as Chief Economist for New Century Advisors. She is also the founder of Sahm Consulting. Claudia was formerly director of macroeconomic policy at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, and a Section Chief at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, where she worked in various capacities from 2007 to 2019. Sahm specializes in macroeconomics and household finance. She is best known for the development of the Sahm rule, a Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) indicator for identifying recessions in real-time. .. more

Economics 57%

Business 32%

Posts Replies Media Videos

Reposted by Miles Corak

Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 3d

It’s truly a loss today. First time since 1948, the government didn’t collect information on unemployment. www.youtube.com/watch?v=6isk...

Government Shutdown Delays US Jobs Data for Second Month

YouTube video by Bloomberg Podcasts

www.youtube.com

Reposted by Claudia Sahm, Menzie Chinn, Justin H. Kirkland , and 8 more Claudia Sahm, Menzie Chinn, Justin H. Kirkland, Trevon D. Logan, David R. Miller, Silvia Secchi, Scott A. Imberman, Dan Immergluck, Virginia Sapiro, Kevin Grant, Timothy D. McBride

Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 4d

Every month for the last 77 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has estimated Americans' unemployment rate

This streak dies tomorrow

Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months

This blind spot will remain forever

Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 4d

Here's the planned BLS data release schedule for Nov 2025.

On Tues, it couldn't release Sept job openings, hires, layoffs and firings data.

This morning, it couldn't release 2025Q3 business Productivity and Costs data.

Tomorrow, it can't release Oct 2025 #JobsReport
www.bls.gov/schedule/202...

Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 5d

Just because Fed policy is contributing to the bifurcation in the economy is not a reason to cut rates. Inflation remains above the Fed’s target. But slower growth at the bottom suggests that policy is still restrictive. It’s also a reason to be optimistic about more breadth as the Fed lowers rates.

Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 5d

The Fed’s goal has been to restrict overall demand to reduce overall inflation. Still, the pullback in demand is concentrated among households whose spending was already constrained, pulling down the bottom arm of the K. That's also true among businesses, as the piece discusses.

Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 5d

Another study found that a 1 pp increase in the rate reduced overall card spending by 9%. But that was driven by account holders who carry a balance or have low credit scores. Spending by those who pay off their balance or have high credit scores was unaffected. www.bostonfed.org/publications...

The Credit Card Spending Channel of Monetary Policy: Micro Evidence from Account-level Data

www.bostonfed.org

Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 5d

Credit-card interest rates, which are short-term, move closely with the federal funds rate, so it’s a reasonable place to look for the effects of monetary policy.

Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 5d

An analysis of credit card usage at the Boston Fed showed that after 2022 — the year when the Fed hiked rates — inflation-adjusted spending by low-income consumers has flatlined. Higher-income consumers have driven the growth in real spending with credit cards. www.bostonfed.org/publications...

Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 5d

The K-shaped economy is exactly what restrictive monetary policy looks like. While the Fed's goals are for the overall economy, its tool of interest rates affects financially constrained households and firms the most. My new @opinion.bloomberg.com piece. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

How the Fed Can Change the K-Shaped Economy

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell agrees that there’s probably something to the claims of a K-shaped economy. But at last week’s press conference, he failed to note how the Fed has helped to create ...

www.bloomberg.com

Reposted by Claudia Sahm

Bob Burgess @bobburgess.bsky.social · 5d

A MUST READ BY @claudia-sahm.bsky.social

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

How the Fed Can Change the K-Shaped Economy

www.bloomberg.com

Reposted by Claudia Sahm

Reposted by Claudia Sahm, Jay Shambaugh

The Hamilton Project @hamiltonproject.org · 6d

One of the justifications for the Trump administration’s tariffs has been raising revenue: The United States raised roughly $30 billion in tariff revenue in August.

But, in a new explainer, @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social shows why raising revenue via tariffs is bad for the U.S. economy:

Tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise revenue - The Hamilton Project

In this explainer, Jay C. Shambaugh shows why tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise funds for the U.S. government.

www.hamiltonproject.org

Reposted by Claudia Sahm

Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 7d

In evaluating today's "curious kind of balance" in the labor market, we need to put it in the context of the many curiosities of the labor market during this cycle.

That's part of the reason why I do not see a recessionary dynamic now ...

stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/a-curious-...

A Curious Kind of Cycle

Today’s post is an excerpt of a talk I gave last week at the Forecasters Club of New York.

stayathomemacro.substack.com

Substack

A Curious Kind of Cycle

Today’s post is an excerpt of a talk I gave last week at the Forecasters Club of New York. A video of the entire talk, along with the slides, is below the paywall for paid subscribers.

Reposts 0 7d

Reposted by Claudia Sahm

Reposted by Dean Baker

Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 21d

Being grateful and grumpy is perfectly understandable (and relatable). Wonderful that you are cancer free again. And yes, good point about benefiting from the advances in treatments.

Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 24d

It's amazing how much airtime 'talking your dot' can fill.

Michael Derby @michaelsderby.bsky.social · 24d

Happy Fed blackout y’all. It was getting a little active out there.

Reposted by Claudia Sahm

Michael Derby @michaelsderby.bsky.social · 24d

Happy Fed blackout y’all. It was getting a little active out there.

Reposted by Claudia Sahm

Mark G. Sheppard @markgsheppard.com · 26d

I modified the #SahmRule, by @claudia-sahm.bsky.social, creating 3.2k spacial Sahm Rules, which show that #recession exposure can differ by place/time.

The bellwether of recessions are rich/white counties but they're slow; the fastest indicators are poor/black counties, but they're noisy.

Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 26d

Zandi must be using the distributional financial accounts which are like a quarterly version of the SCF. www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/...

The Fed - Distributional Financial Accounts Overview

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.

www.federalreserve.gov

Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 26d

The BLS/BEA estimates of consumer spending by income are much less skewed toward the highest income than the Moody's estimate. www.bea.gov/data/special.... Still skewed. While series is shorter, 2004-2022, the upward drift in top share is less clear.

Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · Oct 10

hard to see any reaction to the government shutdown in the Michigan Survey ... typically such dysfunction leaves an imprint. of course, views were already quite downbeat.

Light upyour news

A Curious Kind of Cycle

Sign in to Lightnews

Sign up to start reading

Connect Bluesky

Connect with Bluesky

Light up
your news