Claudia Sahm
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claudia-sahm.bsky.social
Claudia Sahm
@claudia-sahm.bsky.social

macro, fiscal, Fed. creator of the Sahm rule recession indicator. Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) Substack.

Claudia Rae Sahm is an American economist, currently serving as Chief Economist for New Century Advisors. She is also the founder of Sahm Consulting. Claudia was formerly director of macroeconomic policy at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, and a Section Chief at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, where she worked in various capacities from 2007 to 2019. Sahm specializes in macroeconomics and household finance. She is best known for the development of the Sahm rule, a Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) indicator for identifying recessions in real-time. .. more

Economics 57%
Business 32%

WH keeps 'pumping up' payrolls for tomorrow. Here's why. Revisions could wipe out all job growth last year. Zero. zip. nada.

(Note, downward revisions start in 2024, so not a simple politics story.)

Hard data is soft ...

I’m not.

It’s the benchmark revision. prelim estimates have been out for months. WH doesn‘t get the report until today.

“The Epstein files are an x-ray of the global elite. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...

WH shouldn’t have the data until tomorrow, but prelim estimate of the benchmark revision was a big negative.

We’ve all seen the prelim benchmark.

Payrolls must be absolutely brutal.
The White House just sent a "Don't Panic" email. That'll do it

Why Warsh even wants this job is beyond me …
TRUMP: U.S. CAN GROW AT 15% IF WARSH DOES THE JOB HE’S CAPABLE OF

TRUMP: U.S. CAN GROW AT 15% IF WARSH DOES THE JOB HE’S CAPABLE OF

Reposted by Claudia Sahm

The White House just sent a "Don't Panic" email. That'll do it

Why not more praise from supporters? There are enough red flags on Warsh like he doesn’t understand his signature item, the balance sheet, and he got Trump’s approval. Best not to get too close.

Not sure. Mostly, there is no incentive to be critical. Warsh will be confirmed. Getting on the bad side of the Chair could be costly in terms of future access. He was a Fed official before so there's deference to his service. Finally Fed is politicized now, and many are allergic to politics.

I wonder, too. I would not give him a passing grade.

"Thus, the way to choose a good Federal Reserve chair is to read what candidates have said about how the economy operates and ask them about their economic beliefs. If what a candidate says is unrealistic or poorly reasoned, move on to another candidate or risk a replay of the 1930s or the 1970s."

from vibecession to gambling everywhere (hello, Superbowl ads) ... you should be reading @kyla.bsky.social!
In today's newsletter, I wrote about why everyone is gambling and why no one is happy

Reposted by Claudia Sahm

“Maybe instead of it being about 2 percent [growth], maybe we actually get to something that’s closer to 3 percent. But this is not five or seven. And honestly, for people to feel better about the economy, he needs numbers like that,” said Claudia Sahm www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
Trump wants to run the economy hot, as midterm elections approach
The administration predicts an economic boom that will lift Republicans in November’s congressional elections, driven by big tax refunds and investment incentives.
www.washingtonpost.com