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VoxEU @ CEPR
@voxeu.org
6K followers 1.3K following 650 posts
VoxEU – CEPR’s policy portal - promotes "research-based policy analysis and commentary by leading economists". VoxEU columns cover all fields of economics broadly defined and are widely read.
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voxeu.org
Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin, Aidan Caplan, & Tristan Caplan examine the work from home divide using six major US surveys to show how remote work patterns vary across demographic groups, industries, & firm sizes before/after the pandemic.
https://ow.ly/BQrB50XMbS3
#2025inReview #EconSky
December 26, 2025 at 3:00 PM
voxeu.org
Michael Bordo & Robert N McCauley reassess the relevance of the Triffin dilemma, arguing that today’s international monetary system no longer relies on sustained foreign official financing of US deficits.
https://ow.ly/SAu450XMcjo
#2025inReview #EconSky
December 24, 2025 at 7:00 PM
voxeu.org
With global power struggles shaping trade & policy, in May 2025 Cathrin Mohr (University of Bonn) & Christoph Trebesch (Kiel Institut) joined Tim Phillips Talk Normal to answer the question 'What is #geoeconomics?'
Listen again: https://cepr.org/multimedia/what-geoeconomics
December 24, 2025 at 11:00 AM
voxeu.org
Francesco Pappadà & Kenneth Rogoff introduce a new approach to estimating informal economy activity in Europe, utilising VAT data and consumption surveys. https://ow.ly/Lavy50XMcir
#2025inReview #EconSky
December 23, 2025 at 5:00 PM
voxeu.org
Adam Posen (@piie.com & CEPR) joins @talknormal.co.uk to discuss how the multilateral order is changing, how countries are adjusting to the new global trade environment, and whether globalisation as we once knew it can return
Recorded at the CEPR Symposium in Paris
cepr.org/multimedia/f...
#EconSky
Adam S. Posen (Peterson Institute & CEPR) joins @talknormal.co.uk to discuss how the multilateral order is changing, how countries are adjusting to the new global trade environment, and whether globalisation as we once knew it can return. Recorded at the CEPR Symposium in Paris. Listen here: https://cepr.org/multimedia/future-globalisation
December 19, 2025 at 3:25 PM
voxeu.org
🔷With the full-scale Russian invasion of #Ukraine rapidly approaching its 4th year, CEPR & VoxEU look back at through 2025 for our top articles on Ukraine 🇺🇦. #2025inReview #EconSky 👇
December 19, 2025 at 1:09 PM
voxeu.org
1/11 Many of our top VoxEU columns of 2025 tackled the topic of tariffs. Our 10 top pieces on tariffs show the development of the debate throughout the year 👇
#2025inReview #EconSky
December 19, 2025 at 1:06 PM
voxeu.org
Pierre-Louis Vezina, Cevat Giray Aksoy, and Piotr Lewandowski show that, far from displacing local businesses, Ukrainian refugees in Poland sparked an entrepreneurial boom as they inspired Polish entrepreneurs and created new supply chain opportunities.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Figure shows the number of firms registered with Ukrainian owners. Data from the National Court Register (KRS) and Central Register and Information on Business Activity (CEIDG). When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, over a million Ukrainian refugees fled to Poland. This column shows that far from displacing local businesses, these refugees sparked an entrepreneurial boom. Ukrainians started nearly 39,000 firms in just two years. In addition, every 10% increase in Ukrainian firm registrations triggered a 2.3% rise in Polish entrepreneurship. Survey data reveal two mechanisms driving this multiplier effect: Ukrainian businesses inspired Polish entrepreneurs to launch similar ventures, and Ukrainian firms created new supply chain opportunities with local partners.
December 19, 2025 at 9:21 AM
voxeu.org
Global services trade is expanding rapidly, & it is a prime channel for profit shifting. Alexander Klemm & Li Liu show that, at prevailing levels, withholding taxes curb profit-shifting channels w/out hampering countries' ability to import growth-enhancing services.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
This figure shows the relative growth in imports of modern services across source country income groupings. Modern services include telecommunications, computer and information services, other business services, financial services, and royalties for IP. Global services trade is expanding rapidly, but its intangible nature makes it a prime channel for profit shifting, prompting many countries to apply withholding taxes. This column shows that such taxes dampen bilateral service imports – especially royalties, where the response is four times larger – with no evidence of an effect on categories unlikely to be used for tax planning. Yet total service imports do not fall; firms simply reroute payments through partners offering lower treaty rates. The results suggest that, at prevailing levels, withholding taxes curb profit-shifting channels without hampering countries’ ability to import growth-enhancing services.
December 19, 2025 at 9:20 AM
voxeu.org
A dataset that records every earthquake shows that moderate earthquakes can still significantly reduce growth and have lasting effects, especially in low- and lower-middle-income economies.
Rabah Arezki, Youssouf Camara, Patrick Imam, Kangni Kpodar
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
This figure shows the density functions of earthquake intensity from two different sources: Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) and US Geological Survey (USGS). USGS records vastly more moderate quakes, capturing the true distribution of seismic activity. Economic studies of earthquakes often rely on incomplete data, excluding lower-intensity events that can still cause disruptions. This column identifies the effects of earthquakes on aggregate economic outcomes using two datasets: one that captures only earthquakes surpassing certain thresholds and another that records every earthquake. The latter hazard-based dataset shows that moderate earthquakes can still significantly reduce growth and have lasting effects, especially in low- and lower-middle-income economies. These results highlight the importance of systematic data collection of natural disasters.
December 18, 2025 at 9:06 AM
voxeu.org
Government investment in firms has powerful effects on an economy's crisis resilience, with those effects depending on whether the government injects capital into financial or nonfinancial firms.
Markus Haavio & Tuomas Takalo @suomenpankki.fi, Antti Ripatti
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Governments routinely invest in private firms. This column argues that these investments have powerful effects on an economy’s crisis resilience, and that those effects depend crucially on whether the government injects capital into financial or nonfinancial firms. If the economy’s fiscal capacity is limited, recapitalising banks delivers more resilience per euro. If it allows large-scale risk absorption, direct firm support achieves similar stabilisation with fewer incentive distortions in banking.
December 18, 2025 at 9:04 AM
voxeu.org
Marcello Antonini & Joan Costa-i-Font find that individuals with better health are more supportive of fair health financing and equal access to care. Improving population health may bolster public backing for more equitable health systems.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
The figure depicts a scatter plot of the instrument (exposure to BCG vaccination) against the two outcomes of the analysis: attitudes toward fair access (panel 1) and willingness to support fair financing (panel 2), at the country level. The size of the circles reflects the standard deviation of the two outcome variables measured in each country. People’s quality of life is directly affected by policy decisions about access to healthcare and funding, making it increasingly important to understand how the public interprets fairness. This column examines how people’s health status, proxied by exposure to the BCG vaccination, shapes their attitudes towards equal access to care and willingness to pay higher taxes. Individuals with better health are more supportive of fair health financing and equal access to care, suggesting that improving population health may bolster public backing for more equitable health systems.
December 17, 2025 at 9:11 AM
voxeu.org
Much of the decline of #manufacturing employment at the industry level in #Germany reflects a shift of manufacturing tasks into service sector firms rather than a disappearance of manufacturing work.
Dominik Boddin & Thilo Kroeger
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Figure shows that between 1975 and 2019, manufacturing industries lost about 1.5 million manufacturing jobs, while service industries gained about 1.1 million manufacturing jobs. Thus, 67.5% of manufacturing jobs ‘lost’ in manufacturing industries reappeared in the service sector. The net decline in manufacturing work, defined by occupations and hence, tasks performed, was only around 500,000 jobs, far smaller than the perceived 1.5 million. Manufacturing employment in advanced economies is widely viewed as being in long-term decline. Using German administrative data from 1975 to 2019, this column shows that much of the decline measured at the industry level reflects a shift of manufacturing tasks into service sector firms rather than a disappearance of manufacturing work. When workers move across sectors while keeping their manufacturing occupation, their long-run earnings losses are modest. By contrast, workers who must switch into service occupations experience substantial and persistent penalties. These findings suggest that occupation-specific skills, rather than sectoral affiliation, shape workers’ adjustment to structural change.
December 17, 2025 at 9:10 AM
voxeu.org
Downside risks to euro area growth are at comparable levels to those during past crisis episodes and financial markets appear to be under-pricing those risks. The economy is left vulnerable to a sharp repricing if risk appetite returns.
Frederik Andersen et al.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
The image shows a strong recovery for equities after the April turmoil and reduced uncertainty. In panel a, the shaded areas represent the earnings seasons. The historical distribution in panel b is based on data from 1987-2025. The euro area is experiencing a combination of low growth and persistently high policy uncertainty, but financial conditions are remarkably supportive and valuations now look stretched following the brief correction triggered by the 2nd April US tariff announcement. Using a growth-at-risk framework, survey forecasts, and option prices, this column shows that downside risks to euro area growth are at comparable levels to those during past crisis episodes and that financial markets appear to be under-pricing these risks. This ‘macro-financial disconnect’ between equity markets and real sector forecasts leaves the economy vulnerable to a sharp repricing if risk appetite turns.
December 16, 2025 at 9:01 AM
voxeu.org
High location premiums can account for the increase in house prices. Policies to address this crisis include building smaller houses in cities, providing efficient rail transit for commuting, & pricing parking for residents appropriately.
Y River Chen, C Teulings
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Since knowledge spillovers are more relevant for high human capital workers, these workers agglomerate in cities. The image shows this pattern for the US for 34 cities and 47 rural areas. San Francisco, Boston, and San Jose turn out to have higher human capital per worker than other cities, and the average city has higher human capital than the average rural area (left panel). The same holds for wages (right panel). House prices have increased sharply in many advanced economies, often leading to populist revolt and social crises. This column argues that agglomeration externalities foster urbanisation and knowledge spillovers, which generate high location premiums and can account for the increase in house prices. Policies to address the lack of affordable housing include building smaller houses in cities, providing efficient public rail transport for commuting, and pricing parking for residents in cities appropriately.
December 16, 2025 at 8:59 AM
voxeu.org
Stronger policy frameworks - from credible inflation targeting to tighter macroprudential rules - now help emerging markets keep growth steadier and inflation contained during risk-off shocks.
M Bolhuis, F Grigoli, M Kolasa, R Meeks, A Presbitero, Z Zhang
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
The figure plots the contributions of policy frameworks and external conditions for the median emerging market in the post-GFC period relative to the pre-GFC period. Variables proxying for external conditions include real GDP growth in advanced economies, changes in commodity terms of trade, and US financial conditions. The pre-GFC period is 1997–2009 and the post-GFC period is 2010–24. Emerging markets used to be hit hard whenever global investors turned nervous. This column analyses how emerging markets have managed output and inflation during global risk-off episodes over the past three decades. It shows that stronger policy frameworks – from credible inflation targeting to tighter macroprudential rules – now help countries keep growth steadier and inflation contained during risk-off shocks. These reforms matter at least as much as supportive global conditions. This new resilience suggests emerging markets are moving closer to real monetary policy independence.
December 15, 2025 at 9:28 AM
voxeu.org
Across the developing world, the realignment of production is likely to follow the realignment of #tariffs only where tariff changes are actually sufficient to affect trade flows.
Fabien Forge, Jason Garred, Kyae Lim Kwon
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
The figure displays the estimated year-by-year effects of a reduction in tariffs as part of a trade preference programme reform, with 95% confidence intervals. The horizontal axis represents the number of years since the tariff reduction. All estimates are relative to the year before the reform (year -1). The vertical axis shows the size of the increase in the probability of exporting, in percentage points, due to a tariff cut. Recent changes in the tariff policies of the US and China are likely to affect developing countries in complex ways. This column argues that pre-existing trade patterns can help predict which countries might respond positively to particular tariff changes. Analysing the impacts of a wave of tariff reductions targeted at least-developed countries in the late 1990s and early 2000s, the authors show that industrial clusters with existing trading relationships with major importers may face meaningful harm from US tariff rises, or benefit from China’s policy changes, but in other cases a country’s relative tariff treatment might have little influence on its firms’ entry or exit from US or Chinese markets.
December 15, 2025 at 9:25 AM
voxeu.org
Exploiting a French teacher salary reform, Desislava Tartova (@pse.bsky.social) shows that uniformly increasing salaries improves workforce quality by disproportionately retaining better teachers.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
The figure shows the widening of the average annual wage gap in France (in thousands of euros). The Average outside option wage is the weighted-average wage of non-teachers in occupations identified as outside options for teachers, using teacher exits from the profession. Weights account for both the average share of teachers exiting to a given occupation over the period 2009-2021 and the share of workers in an occupation in a given cell of age, sex, commuting zone and year. The Teacher wage varies per position on the pay scale and year. Both teaching wages and outside option wages are CPI-deflated to 2024 thousands of euros. Concerns about declining student achievements have become central in education debates, with teacher quality drawing attention as a key driver. This column examines how wages affect the quality of the teaching workforce by studying how uniform salary increases alter the composition of teachers who remain in the profession. Exploiting a French teacher salary reform, the author shows that uniformly increasing salaries improves workforce quality by disproportionately retaining better teachers.
December 15, 2025 at 9:22 AM
voxeu.org
Data on US congressional stock trades from 1995-2021 show while rank-and-file members do not systematically beat the market, once some assume leadership positions, their portfolios start to look very different & outperform regular members.
Shang-Jin Wei, Yifan Zhou
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
The debate over whether US members of Congress should be allowed to trade individual stocks has become a mainstream policy concern. This column uses data on every US congressional stock trade from 1995 to 2021 to reveal that while rank-and-file members do not systematically beat the market, once some of them assume leadership positions their portfolios start to look very different and outperform those of regular members. The pattern raises uncomfortable questions about how political power, corporate access, and personal wealth interact.
December 15, 2025 at 9:16 AM
voxeu.org
A London Economic Consensus?

Amid today’s economic challenges, Andrés Velasco and Tim Besley discuss their new book The London Consensus with @talknormal.co.uk, exploring how policymakers might use it, and why no single paradigm can provide all the answers
cepr.org/multimedia/l...
#EconSky
New VoxTalks Economics: A London Economic Consensus? Amid today’s daunting economic challenges, Andrés Velasco and Tim Besley discuss their new book The London Consensus with Tim Phillips—exploring how policymakers might use it, and why no single paradigm can provide all the answers. Recorded at the LSE. Listen here: https://cepr.org/multimedia/london-economic-consensus
December 12, 2025 at 2:59 PM
voxeu.org
The displacement of 1.8 million civilians from Northern Uganda to camps in Eastern Uganda pushed people out of agriculture and into non-agricultural activities and exacerbated spatial inequality. However, children benefitted from schooling in the camps.
Ayah Bohsali
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
The figure displays the variation in camp establishment and conflict timing. From the late 1990s up until 2006, approximately 1,800,000 civilians were uprooted from their villages in Northern Uganda and parts of Eastern Uganda and forced to live in camps. This column examines how the displacement reshaped the distribution of population, human capital, and economic activity. The displacement pushed people out of agriculture and into non-agricultural activities and exacerbated spatial inequality. Children benefitted from schooling in the camps. Securing land rights and reconstructing road networks are also essential for recovery.
December 12, 2025 at 9:05 AM
Reposted by VoxEU @ CEPR
helene-rey.bsky.social
Even more important after the US security strategy document. Our proposal for the future of European defense with @schularick.bsky.social @kiel.institute @voxeu.org and Philipp Hildebrand now in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung: www.faz.net/aktuell/wirt...
Wie Europa die USA ersetzen kann
Jetzt oder nie: Europa muss endlich selbst für seine Verteidigungsfähigkeit sorgen. Dafür braucht es vor allem zwei Maßnahmen.
www.faz.net
December 11, 2025 at 8:39 AM
voxeu.org
@olena-havrylchyk.bsky.social explains how European Central Securities Depositories operate, why Euroclear has become a critical chokepoint holding most immobilised Russian assets & several proposals to use those assets to support Ukraine's defence & reconstruction.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
European policymakers are debating using immobilised assets of the Central Bank of Russia held at Euroclear to finance a ‘reparation loan’ for Ukraine. This column explains how European Central Securities Depositories operate and why Euroclear has become a critical chokepoint holding most immobilised Russian assets. It documents the windfall profits generated by these assets, the emerging political push towards de facto confiscation despite concerns about financial stability, and several proposals to use immobilised and frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine’s defence and reconstruction.
December 11, 2025 at 10:25 AM
voxeu.org
Many economies index their minimum wage to inflation. However, Isabel Di Tella (@mit.edu) shows that the timing and predictability of the policy matter for how inflationary shocks propagate.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Exposed workers are those that earn less than the following year’s minimum wage, we call them “Binding MW” (orange line) and “Non-binding MW” (red line) workers. Unexposed workers are those that earn more than the upcoming minimum wage, we call them “Mid-wage” (green line) and “High-wage” (blue line) workers. Firms are exposed if they employ any exposed workers. Many economies index their minimum wage to inflation to preserve its real value during inflationary periods. This column shows, however, that the timing and predictability of the policy matter for how inflationary shocks propagate. In Brazil, minimum wage workers are less likely to receive a nominal wage increase between indexation events, which leads to lower real wages for these workers. However, both firms and workers anticipate the future increase in the nominal minimum wage, which lowers output in the future and in the present, dampening inflation and raising real wages.
December 11, 2025 at 10:24 AM
voxeu.org
While both the #US and #Italy are running unsustainable fiscal policies, the immediate adjustments needed to restore US fiscal solvency are far greater than those required of Italy, argues Laurence Kotlikoff.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
By the standard debt-to-GDP measure, the US is in somewhat better fiscal shape than Italy, but this excludes the present value of myriad off-the-books obligations. This column employs fiscal gap accounting and generational accounting to reveal a very different story. While both countries are running unsustainable fiscal policies, the immediate adjustments needed to restore US fiscal solvency are far greater than those required of Italy. The findings suggest that Congress must mandate the Congressional Budget Office to do fiscal gap accounting and generational accounting on a routine basis and immediately adjust policy to eliminate the country’s massive fiscal gap.
December 11, 2025 at 10:21 AM