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VoxEU @ CEPR
@voxeu.org
6.1K followers 1.3K following 710 posts
VoxEU – CEPR’s policy portal - promotes "research-based policy analysis and commentary by leading economists". VoxEU columns cover all fields of economics broadly defined and are widely read.
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L Carpinelli, F Natoli & M Taboga assess how the AI wave contributes to US GDP. Technology investment contributes positively to GDP growth, but a sizeable portion leaks abroad through imports. Value added in sectoral accounts is also showing the contribution of AI.
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Graph showing imports of servers by country of origin and by quarter since 2024q1. Forecasts on the economic impacts of artificial intelligence diverge sharply. This column assesses how the current AI wave is contributing to US GDP, both directly through investment and indirectly through ongoing service flows. Technology investment contributes positively to GDP growth, but a sizeable portion leaks abroad through imports. Beyond capital spending, value added in sectoral accounts is also showing the contribution of AI, for example in computer systems design and data processing. The largest economic effects of AI are still likely to come from productivity gains and organisational change. Understanding today’s accounting footprint is a prerequisite for interpreting tomorrow’s transformation.
February 9, 2026 at 10:19 AM
voxeu.org
E Amoncio, A Cuntz & C Fink examine how the award to Apple in the 2012 Apple v. Samsung case impacted firms’ behaviour. The legal certainty increased digital design protection relative to physical designs. Firms’ appropriation shifted toward transfers, not licences.
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Graph of the annual count of digital and physical design protection. The solid line shows total design applications in digital subclasses. The dashed line represents applications in matched physical subclasses. The red vertical line denotes the 2012 Apple v. Samsung jury verdict. The sample is based on a balanced panel of 21,553 subclass–year observations (2009–2015). Digital design increasingly confers a competitive edge in global tech markets. This column examines how the award to Apple of damages for, among other things, infringement of the digital design of the iPhone home screen in the Apple v. Samsung case in 2012 impacted firms’ behaviour. The legal certainty provided by the verdict increased digital design protection relative to physical designs. Firms’ appropriation shifted toward transfers, not licences, reflecting the strong connection between digital design and brand identity, and this shift was strongest in crowded design spaces. The findings suggest that for firms to become ‘aesthetic pioneers’ and sustained investors in digital design, legal rules must be clear and predictable.
February 9, 2026 at 10:16 AM
voxeu.org
The 1920s US immigration quotas reduced intergenerational mobility, wages, and employment among US-born white men in more-exposed counties. In contrast, the effects for Black men were positive, though small and imprecise.
@jamesfeigenbaum.bsky.social et al.
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#EconSky
Map of the continental United States ploting the immigration quota exposure, defined as the number of predicted missing immigrants, scaled by the 1900 county population, partialling out Census region fixed effects. Much of the debate over the consequences of immigration restrictions for labour market outcomes of native-born workers focuses on short-run wage competition. This column exploits the sharp and uneven impact of the US immigration quota acts of the 1920s to study the long-run effects of immigration restrictions on economic opportunity for US-born men. The authors show that restricting immigration reduced intergenerational mobility, wages, and employment among US-born white men in more-exposed counties. In contrast, the effects for Black men were positive, though small and imprecise. The findings highlight that immigration policy can have persistent and uneven consequences across groups and generations.
February 9, 2026 at 10:14 AM
voxeu.org
A survey of German firms shows over half of firms currently use generative AI or expect to use it by the end of the year. Firms expect productivity, wages, and demand for high-skilled workers to rise, with little change in low-skill employment.
E Falck & A Nagengast
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#EconSky
Chart showing firms’ assessments of GenAI’s economic effects. Among adopters (and near-term adopters), productivity expectations are decisively positive. The share of (current or prospective) GenAI users expecting labour productivity to increase by at least 2% rises from 46% (2024) to 51% (2025) and 54% (2026); around one-quarter even expect gains of 5% or more, while only about 4–5% foresee productivity losses. The novelty and speed of diffusion of generative AI means that evidence on its impact on productivity and the future of work is scarce. This column uses survey data from over 7,000 German firms to help address this gap. Over half of firms surveyed currently use generative AI or expect to use it by the end of the year, up from 26% in 2024. GenAI-related spending is expected to rise markedly from 2024 to 2026, but spending forecasts point to diminishing returns once easily scalable applications have been implemented. Firms expect productivity, wages, and demand for high-skilled workers to rise, with little change in low-skill employment.
February 9, 2026 at 10:13 AM
voxeu.org
VoxTalks Economics episode: What should Europe do about Trump?

@wederdim.bsky.social and @upanizza.bsky.social @gvagrad.bsky.social talk with @talknormal.co.uk about Europe’s options in response to recent #US policy shifts — from trade to geopolitical strategy.

👉 cepr.org/multimedia/w...
#EconSky
VoxTalks Economics episode: What should Europe do about Trump? Beatrice Weder di Mauro and Ugo Panizza of the Graduate Institute Geneva talk with Tim Phillips about Europe’s options in response to recent US policy shifts — from trade to geopolitical strategy. 👉 https://cepr.org/multimedia/what-should-europe-do-about-trump
February 6, 2026 at 2:22 PM
voxeu.org
A Fuchs, S S. Leue, & A Rose find that while attending Davos does not generate measurable financial gains for shareholders, it is associated with changes in firms' social performance that are consistent with the Forum's stakeholder-oriented mission.
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#EconSky
Map shows the total number of delegates by country that attend Davos, 2009-2018. Attending the World Economic Forum in Davos is costly, with estimates ranging between $20,000 and $70,000 per delegate. This column uses data on attendees from 2009 to 2018 to examine whether attending the Forum yields tangible benefits for companies. The findings suggest that while attending Davos does not generate measurable financial gains for shareholders, with no evidence of improvements in stock market performance or credit ratings, it is associated with changes in firms’ social performance that are consistent with the Forum’s stakeholder-oriented mission.
February 6, 2026 at 9:50 AM
voxeu.org
@nickbloom.bsky.social‬ @paulmizen.bsky.social @iyotzov.bsky.social ‪et al. use a survey of UK firms to show state-dependent pricing has increased since 2019 & is more common in smaller firms, those with higher non-labour costs, & those reporting higher uncertainty.
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Figure shows firm annual price growth, CPI inflation, and share of state-dependent firms Macroeconomic models distinguish time-dependent pricing, where firms change prices at fixed intervals, from state-dependent pricing, where firms change prices in response to changing demand or costs. This column presents new evidence on how firms set prices using direct questions from a large, economy-wide survey of UK firms. State-dependent pricing has increased since 2019 and is more common in smaller firms, those with higher non-labour costs, and those reporting higher uncertainty. Furthermore, empirical work shows that state-dependent firms respond faster to cost shocks, with larger differences for bigger shocks, consistent with theoretical predictions.
February 6, 2026 at 9:50 AM
voxeu.org
Nicola Gagliardi presents the long-term macro-fiscal implications of climate change and the transition to a low-carbon economy across EU member states. Integrating climate risks into fiscal frameworks is important for credible and resilient public finances.
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The net fiscal impact (% of GDP) is given by the difference in primary balance (and its sub-components) between the NZ and NFA scenarios for the EU aggregate. Negative values reduce fiscal pressure; positive values increase fiscal pressure. Projections shown in the figure assume a 10% uptake of investment needs by the public sector. In Panel A (left), an output-driven revenue approach is followed. In Panel B (right), an output-driven revenue approach is combined with assumptions on structural energy-tax base erosion. Climate change is increasingly shaping macro-fiscal outlooks. Extreme weather events, chronic damages from global warming, and decarbonisation efforts all have growing implications for public finances and the economy. Based on recent scenario analysis, this column presents the long-term macro-fiscal implications of climate change and the transition to a low-carbon economy across EU member states. The findings show that integrating climate risks into fiscal frameworks is important for credible and resilient public finances.
February 5, 2026 at 9:25 AM
voxeu.org
D Restuccia analyses firm productivity & resource allocation in developing economies & finds employment responds less to productivity, affecting productive firms more severely. Output is less than half of what could be achieved w/ more efficient labour allocation.
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#EconSky
Figure shows productivity gaps across firms and level of development. Productivity dispersion in each country is measured by the standard deviation of log total factor productivity (TFP) across firms in panel (a) and the indicated percentile ratios of firm TFP in panel (b). Each observation is the value for the indicated country. Labour productivity in logs for the year 2023 from the Penn World Table v11.0. In many developing countries, productive firms remain too small, while less productive firms are too large. Such misallocation contributes to losses in aggregate productivity. This column analyses firm-level productivity and distortions, using World Bank data covering manufacturing and services firms in over 100 countries. In developing economies, employment responds less to productivity, affecting productive firms more severely. Actual aggregate output is less than half of what could be achieved with a more efficient allocation of labour. Restoring the link between productivity and firm size should be a central goal of productivity-enhancing reforms.
February 5, 2026 at 9:20 AM
voxeu.org
New VoxTalks Economics: The economic consequences of living longer
Julian Ashwin @maastrichtu.bsky.social and Martin Ellison @oxfordecondept.bsky.social discuss how longer lives are changing economic decisions and the macroeconomic landscape.
Listen: cepr.org/multimedia/e...
#EconSky
February 4, 2026 at 2:24 PM
voxeu.org
Mishel Ghassibe & Anton Nakov argue that the post-pandemic inflation surge was not driven by greedy firms or overly expansionary monetary policy, but by unexpected price shocks cascading through a tightly connected production network.
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Panel a) depicts the frequency of repricing in the data (blue solid line) and according to three models – the standard (Calvo, 1983) model with a constant repricing frequency (dashed green line), the state-dependent model but without networks (yellow line); and the more realistic state-dependent model with networks (solid red line). Panel b) displays actual inflation in the data and as predicted by the same three models. The post‑pandemic inflation surge is often attributed to pent-up demand and opportunistic price hikes by firms. This column argues that the surge was not driven by greedy firms or overly expansionary monetary policy, but by unexpected price shocks cascading through a tightly connected production network. As interdependencies in the global economy become increasingly complex, paying close attention to these mechanisms is essential for understanding future inflation risks and designing effective policy responses.
February 4, 2026 at 8:31 AM
voxeu.org
Europe's US debt holdings offer little scope for strategic deployment as they are fragmented across jurisdictions and institutions, and efforts to weaponise them for political purposes would largely backfire, argue Paola Subacchi & Paul van den Noord.
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#EconSky
The question of whether Europe’s $12.6 trillion holdings of US assets be used as leverage if relations with Washington sour has become increasingly salient in policy and market discussions. This column argues that Europe’s US debt holdings offer little scope for strategic deployment as they are fragmented across jurisdictions and institutions, and efforts to weaponise them for political purposes would largely backfire.
February 3, 2026 at 8:54 AM
voxeu.org
Diego A. Cerdeiro & Lorenzo Rotunno estimate that intra-EU trade barriers are between two to three times as large as between US states, with simulations suggesting that closing the gap could raise EU productivity by nearly 6%.
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The figure shows the ratio of cross-border (across EU countries or US states) to domestic sales for the different datasets in the year 2017 in manufacturing. The level of cross-border relative to domestic trade is higher in the US than in the EU. European firms tend to be smaller and less productive than US firms. Qualitative and survey-based evidence suggests that one key reason is the remaining barriers fragmenting the EU’s single market. This column argues that gravity-based trade estimates can help quantify the problem but are sensitive to the data used. Intra-EU trade barriers are estimated to be between two to three times as large as between US states, with simulations suggesting that fully closing the gap with intra-US trade costs could raise EU productivity by nearly 6%.
February 3, 2026 at 8:53 AM
voxeu.org
Y Hemmerlé, T Kruse, & M Pisu find that carbon leakage rates are considerably higher in small open economies & carbon-intensive sectors. Market-based instruments raise imported emissions, while regulations & technology support policies result in cleaner imports.
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The figure shows overall climate policy stringency by country in 2010 (black diamonds) and 2020 (blue bars). Overall stringency is measured using the composite CAPMF index, constructed by averaging stringency scores across policy instruments. The composite index aggregates three policy sub-indices: market-based, non-market-based, and technology-support policies. Stringency scores of policy instruments range from 0 (least stringent) to 10 (most stringent). A central concern in the climate policy debate is whether ambitious mitigation efforts simply shift emissions abroad. This column addresses this concern by empirically estimating carbon leakage rates and their drivers across a wide range of climate policy instruments, countries, and sectors. Leakage rates are moderate overall but considerably higher in small open economies and carbon-intensive sectors. Market-based instruments, such as carbon taxes, raise imported emissions through higher and dirtier imports, while regulations and technology support policies result in cleaner imports. These results highlight the potential of well-designed climate policy mixes to limit leakage and support global decarbonisation.
February 2, 2026 at 10:03 AM
voxeu.org
Paul Reimers & Henrike Michaelis (@bundesbank.de) show that, in the recent tightening and easing cycle, monetary policy impulses were transmitted to bank lending rates differently depending on the type of firm and financing arrangement.
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#EconSky
Figure shows how the bank lending rate to firms in the euro area did not increase in lockstep with policy and money market rates. It only increased by up to three percentage points. This opened a gap of 1.5 percentage points. During the recent tightening and easing cycle, the aggregate bank lending rate to firms in the euro area increased by less than the rise in policy and money market rates. This column uses granular credit registry data, revealing how changes in the composition and pricing of credit translate into aggregate rate developments and the gap. Composition effects were minor, while pricing effects were instrumental in opening the gap. The key factor was the development of banks' fixed component of credit pricing. Changes in mark-ups partly counteracted the incomplete pass-through and thus reduced the gap.
February 2, 2026 at 10:01 AM
voxeu.org
Claudio Borio, Piti Disyatat, & Nikola Tarashev embed stablecoins in key mechanisms of money creation, consider their potential role in markets for eligible backing assets, highlight their issuers’ interaction with banks, and outline implications for regulation.
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#EconSky
Payment stablecoins are set to become an important financial instrument. Their impact on the financial system will depend on whether the issuers can purchase assets (i) only with bank deposits or (ii) also by issuing liabilities widely accepted as means of payment. In this second case, stablecoin issuers would be sharing banks’ ‘exorbitant privilege’ of creating money ‘out of thin air’. In examining the two scenarios, this column embeds stablecoins in key mechanisms of money creation, considers their potential role in markets for eligible backing assets, highlights their issuers’ interaction with banks, and outlines implications for regulation.
February 2, 2026 at 9:58 AM
voxeu.org
Lorenzo Rotunno & Michele Ruta find that, paradoxically, US tariffs may ease political economy constraints by strengthening incentives for export-oriented industries to lobby for deeper integration elsewhere.
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Figure shows the import-weighted average of product-level tariff reductions for countries involved in the economic integration scenario. While recent analysis has focused on direct impacts of US tariffs and potential retaliation, major US trading partners have intensified trade negotiations with each other, including the recently completed EU–Mercosur and EU–India deals. Using a quantitative trade model, this column shows that deep integration – involving non-tariff barrier reductions – can offset welfare losses from US tariffs and generate net gains. Paradoxically, US tariffs may ease political economy constraints by strengthening incentives for export-oriented industries to lobby for deeper integration elsewhere.
February 2, 2026 at 9:55 AM
voxeu.org
@eduardoyeyati.bsky.social shows that non-degree credentials can deliver substantial wage gains if they are job-relevant, especially for workers without college degrees and those early in their careers.
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#EconSky
Credentials aren’t distributed evenly across the labour market. The figure shows that they cluster heavily in knowledge-intensive occupations: 23.4% of computer and mathematical workers hold non-degree credentials, along with 16.9% in business and finance, and 16.4% in architecture and engineering – all more than triple the 7.2% overall average. Non-degree credentials are rapidly multiplying as alternatives to traditional higher education, but in a largely unregulated market. This column draws on nearly 40 million US worker resumes to analyse the returns to non-degree credentials. The findings suggest that they can deliver substantial wage gains if they are job-relevant, especially for workers without college degrees and those early in their careers. However, these are also the workers who are least likely to hold such credentials. Changing this requires not just more credentials, but better information, lower barriers, and quality assurance that protects workers from low-value programmes.
February 2, 2026 at 9:52 AM
voxeu.org
The role of human capital and deep financial markets for the effectiveness of FDI has weakened since the turn of the century. The growth effects of FDI vary dramatically across sectors, A Bénétrix, H Pallan, & @upanizza.bsky.social explain.
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Existing evidence indicates that foreign direct investment promotes growth only when host economies have the human capital and deep financial markets to absorb spillovers. This column documents how the role of these conditions has weakened since the turn of the century. The authors also demonstrate how the growth effects of foreign direct investment vary dramatically across sectors, with a positive effect in the services sector, no significant effect in manufacturing, and a negative effect in services. Finally, they show that the association between foreign investment and growth is strongest in country-sectors with low participation in global value chains, and that the type of participation matters too.
January 30, 2026 at 10:12 AM
voxeu.org
In response to US tariffs on Chinese solar panel imports, Chinese firms relocated production to countries not subject to tariffs. T Gerarden, B Bollinger, K Gillingham & D Yi Xu argue subsidies would be more effective in supporting domestic industries/climate action
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#EconSky
The figure plots event-study estimates of the effect of US import tariffs on prices (USD per watt, in logs) in the US market, relative to prices in other regional markets. Vertical lines denote the timing of each round of US import tariffs. All event-study coefficients are relative to the first quarter of 2012. Governments impose tariffs to protect domestic clean-energy industries and accelerate decarbonisation, but tariffs can increase the costs of deploying clean technologies. This column analyses the effect of tariffs imposed by the US on Chinese solar panel imports since 2012. In response, Chinese firms relocated production to countries not subject to the tariffs. The result was higher solar panel prices in the US and a decline in employment and wages in the US solar industry. The authors suggest that subsidies would be more effective in supporting domestic industries and climate action, correcting market failures rather than simply redistributing rents.
January 30, 2026 at 9:04 AM
voxeu.org
Jakob Feveile Adolfsen, Asger Munch Grønlund, & Thomas Harr (@nationalbanken.dk) demonstrate that the US dollar differs from traditional safe-haven currencies such as the yen and Swiss franc, with safe-haven shocks strengthening the $ only temporarily.
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#EconSky
Figure shows the 500 trading days rolling correlation between the nominal effective exchange rate of the USD and the safe-haven factor from Grothe et al (2025). Based on daily data from 1 January 2007 to 17 September 2025. Safe-haven currencies are generally understood to appreciate when risk sentiment deteriorates, providing investors with insurance. This column demonstrates that the US dollar differs from that of traditional safe-haven currencies such as the yen and Swiss franc. The dollar strengthens persistently and broadly only during episodes of severe global funding stress; in contrast to the yen and the Swiss franc, safe-haven shocks strengthen the dollar only temporarily. The analysis suggests that the weakness of the dollar following “Liberation Day”, which constituted a safe-haven shock but did not trigger a funding stress shock, was less surprising than it might initially have seemed.
January 29, 2026 at 9:35 AM
voxeu.org
E Tarantino, C Atzeni, C Cirignaco, D Erharter, and H Zenger find that, on average, EU telecoms industry returns have exceeded the cost of capital over the past decade, although performance varies significantly across firms and investment cycles.
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#EconSky
Graph shows that over the past two decades, the European telecoms sector as a whole has maintained one of the highest dividend-payout ratios compared to other industries in Europe. The EU’s digital economy relies on investments by the telecoms industry to keep the bloc at the forefront of digital innovation and connectivity. However, the telecoms industry has long argued that insufficient returns constrain the needed strategic infrastructure investments. This column analyses these claims by examining the operating profitability of major telecom groups in the EU. It finds that, on average, returns have exceeded the cost of capital over the past decade, although performance varies significantly across firms and investment cycles. The gap between returns and cost of capital has also remained positive, on average, when analysing in-country operations.
January 29, 2026 at 9:32 AM
voxeu.org
How do exchange rates responded to tariffs?

Giancarlo Corsetti discusses why exchange rates reacted differently to #US tariffs than conventional theory would predict — and what this reveals about expectations, retaliation, and long-run risk.

Listen here:
cepr.org/multimedia/h...

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New VoxTalks Economics: How exchange rates responded to tariffs Giancarlo Corsetti discusses why exchange rates reacted differently to US tariffs than conventional theory would predict — and what this reveals about expectations, retaliation, and long-run risk. Listen here: https://cepr.org/multimedia/how-exchange-rates-responded-tariffs
January 28, 2026 at 12:21 PM
voxeu.org
Hunt Allcott, Mark Egan, Paul Smeets, & Hanbin Yang use mutual fund data to assess the impact of the EU's Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation on investor behaviour, and find no meaningful effect on mutual fund flows.
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#EconSky
Disclosure-based regulation is often seen as a low-cost way to address greenwashing. This column uses European mutual fund data to assess the impact of the EU’s Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation on investor behaviour, and finds no meaningful effect on mutual fund flows. A survey of investors suggests that while they do care about sustainability, they find the classifications of the regulation confusing and struggle to translate disclosures into meaningful decisions. This is reflected in the European Commission’s proposed reform of the regulation, which explicitly acknowledges that the original framework was overly complex and confusing for retail investors.
January 28, 2026 at 10:22 AM
voxeu.org
Viral Acharya & Toomas Laarits argue that a substantial part of the increase in long-term US Treasury yields following the April 2025 tariff increase reflected a decline in the 'convenience yield', stemming from the 'safe asset' status of Treasuries.
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#EconSky
The authors' prior work has established that convenience yields tend to be highest when Treasuries provide good hedges against equity market downturns. During the tariff war, however, this pattern broke down. The ten-year convenience yield dropped by nearly ten basis points from late March to its 10 April trough. Additionally, the short- and long-term convenience yields diverged in unprecedented ways. Normally, the two-year and ten-year convenience yields move closely together, averaging within two basis points of each other. But in April 2025, the two-year premium ran seven basis points higher than the ten-year – suggesting investors lost confidence specifically in the long-term safety properties of Treasuries while still valuing their near-term benefits. These results are shown in the graph. US Treasury securities serve as the global safe asset due to their extreme safety and liquidity. However, the tariff shock in April 2025 led to a sharp downturn in US equity markets and a spike in long-term yields. This column argues that a substantial part of this increase in yields reflected a decline in the ‘convenience yield’, stemming from the ‘safe asset’ status of Treasuries. It finds a small role for heightened inflation expectations, and more evidence of a lack of inflows from international investors and a rotation towards gold.
January 28, 2026 at 10:21 AM