Skanda Amarnath
@skandaamarnath.bsky.social
Executive Director of Employ America
Macro / Labor / Finance / Energy / Chart posting
Macro / Labor / Finance / Energy / Chart posting
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
It's Permutations Christmas Eve! And with huge thanks to @skandaamarnath.bsky.social we've got 100,000 simulations of the final round of league phase games to comb through
- Likely opponents for top two
- Who gets eighth
- Is a draw enough for Napoli?
Article 👇
www.cbssports.com/soccer/news/...
- Likely opponents for top two
- Who gets eighth
- Is a draw enough for Napoli?
Article 👇
www.cbssports.com/soccer/news/...
January 27, 2026 at 3:03 PM
It's Permutations Christmas Eve! And with huge thanks to @skandaamarnath.bsky.social we've got 100,000 simulations of the final round of league phase games to comb through
- Likely opponents for top two
- Who gets eighth
- Is a draw enough for Napoli?
Article 👇
www.cbssports.com/soccer/news/...
- Likely opponents for top two
- Who gets eighth
- Is a draw enough for Napoli?
Article 👇
www.cbssports.com/soccer/news/...
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
Had @jamesbenge.bsky.social sort through everybody’s Matchday 8 chances using @skandaamarnath.bsky.social modeling. www.cbssports.com/soccer/news/...
Champions League Matchday: Who will advance, who makes playoffs, odds
Three burning questions for Matchday 8: How will everything shake out in chaotic Champions League table
www.cbssports.com
January 27, 2026 at 3:14 PM
Had @jamesbenge.bsky.social sort through everybody’s Matchday 8 chances using @skandaamarnath.bsky.social modeling. www.cbssports.com/soccer/news/...
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
new subscriber @doublepivotpodcast.bsky.social !
talking through all the Champions League Matchday Eight ~~Scenarios~~ with @skandaamarnath.bsky.social and his projection spreadsheet www.patreon.com/posts/scenar...
talking through all the Champions League Matchday Eight ~~Scenarios~~ with @skandaamarnath.bsky.social and his projection spreadsheet www.patreon.com/posts/scenar...
Scenarios!! (with Skanda Amarnath) | The Double Pivot Podcast
Get more from The Double Pivot Podcast on Patreon
www.patreon.com
January 27, 2026 at 9:53 PM
new subscriber @doublepivotpodcast.bsky.social !
talking through all the Champions League Matchday Eight ~~Scenarios~~ with @skandaamarnath.bsky.social and his projection spreadsheet www.patreon.com/posts/scenar...
talking through all the Champions League Matchday Eight ~~Scenarios~~ with @skandaamarnath.bsky.social and his projection spreadsheet www.patreon.com/posts/scenar...
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
Nice little preview of something we’ve got cooking with some help from the great @skandaamarnath.bsky.social
January 26, 2026 at 1:57 PM
Nice little preview of something we’ve got cooking with some help from the great @skandaamarnath.bsky.social
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
no, it's JPM speak for "we were at 0.4% and it came in half that (rounded) so we need to explain why we boofed the estimate so bad"
January 13, 2026 at 5:01 PM
no, it's JPM speak for "we were at 0.4% and it came in half that (rounded) so we need to explain why we boofed the estimate so bad"
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
Latest @employamerica.bsky.social
It Wasn't A Recession - How Age Divergence & A Participation Boom Drove A 1% Rise In The Unemployment Rate
www.employamerica.org/labor-market...
It Wasn't A Recession - How Age Divergence & A Participation Boom Drove A 1% Rise In The Unemployment Rate
www.employamerica.org/labor-market...
It Wasn't A Recession - How Age Divergence & A Participation Boom Drove A 1% Rise In The Unemployment Rate
Summary: The unemployment rate has risen 1% from its post-pandemic trough three years ago, but this rise likely overstates the degree of labor market and business cycle deterioration relative to what ...
www.employamerica.org
January 13, 2026 at 11:09 AM
Latest @employamerica.bsky.social
It Wasn't A Recession - How Age Divergence & A Participation Boom Drove A 1% Rise In The Unemployment Rate
www.employamerica.org/labor-market...
It Wasn't A Recession - How Age Divergence & A Participation Boom Drove A 1% Rise In The Unemployment Rate
www.employamerica.org/labor-market...
Restaurant inflation still biting
January 13, 2026 at 5:22 PM
Restaurant inflation still biting
Womp womp
CPI is a fixed-weight basket of goods and services, but PCE inflation is weighted towards how consumers actually spend
When you look at the goods where people actually allocate their dollars and prices are less volatile, we're seeing some meaningful upside right now
CPI is a fixed-weight basket of goods and services, but PCE inflation is weighted towards how consumers actually spend
When you look at the goods where people actually allocate their dollars and prices are less volatile, we're seeing some meaningful upside right now
January 13, 2026 at 5:18 PM
Womp womp
CPI is a fixed-weight basket of goods and services, but PCE inflation is weighted towards how consumers actually spend
When you look at the goods where people actually allocate their dollars and prices are less volatile, we're seeing some meaningful upside right now
CPI is a fixed-weight basket of goods and services, but PCE inflation is weighted towards how consumers actually spend
When you look at the goods where people actually allocate their dollars and prices are less volatile, we're seeing some meaningful upside right now
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
Main Cabin (everything below first/business class) revenues -7% YoY while Premium (first/business) +9% is really wild.
January 13, 2026 at 1:20 PM
Main Cabin (everything below first/business class) revenues -7% YoY while Premium (first/business) +9% is really wild.
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
nm we got DAL
*DELTA: 2026 GROWTH ACCELERATING ON CONSUMER, CORPORATE DEMAND
*DELTA AIR LINES TO BUY AS MANY AS 60 BOEING 787 JETS
*DELTA AIR LINES 4Q ADJ EPS $1.55, EST. $1.53
*DELTA AIR LINES 4Q PASSENGER REV. $12.92B, EST. $13.01B
*DELTA AIR LINES SEES 2026 ADJ EPS $6.50 TO $7.50, EST. $7.20
*DELTA: 2026 GROWTH ACCELERATING ON CONSUMER, CORPORATE DEMAND
*DELTA AIR LINES TO BUY AS MANY AS 60 BOEING 787 JETS
*DELTA AIR LINES 4Q ADJ EPS $1.55, EST. $1.53
*DELTA AIR LINES 4Q PASSENGER REV. $12.92B, EST. $13.01B
*DELTA AIR LINES SEES 2026 ADJ EPS $6.50 TO $7.50, EST. $7.20
Good morning and welcome to earnings season.
DAL usually kicks us off but they've changed their earnings timing this quarter and are apparently planning to drop their financials at the same time their call starts (10a). Maybe just a misprint but that's what's in all the schedules.
DAL usually kicks us off but they've changed their earnings timing this quarter and are apparently planning to drop their financials at the same time their call starts (10a). Maybe just a misprint but that's what's in all the schedules.
January 13, 2026 at 11:31 AM
nm we got DAL
*DELTA: 2026 GROWTH ACCELERATING ON CONSUMER, CORPORATE DEMAND
*DELTA AIR LINES TO BUY AS MANY AS 60 BOEING 787 JETS
*DELTA AIR LINES 4Q ADJ EPS $1.55, EST. $1.53
*DELTA AIR LINES 4Q PASSENGER REV. $12.92B, EST. $13.01B
*DELTA AIR LINES SEES 2026 ADJ EPS $6.50 TO $7.50, EST. $7.20
*DELTA: 2026 GROWTH ACCELERATING ON CONSUMER, CORPORATE DEMAND
*DELTA AIR LINES TO BUY AS MANY AS 60 BOEING 787 JETS
*DELTA AIR LINES 4Q ADJ EPS $1.55, EST. $1.53
*DELTA AIR LINES 4Q PASSENGER REV. $12.92B, EST. $13.01B
*DELTA AIR LINES SEES 2026 ADJ EPS $6.50 TO $7.50, EST. $7.20
Latest @employamerica.bsky.social
It Wasn't A Recession - How Age Divergence & A Participation Boom Drove A 1% Rise In The Unemployment Rate
www.employamerica.org/labor-market...
It Wasn't A Recession - How Age Divergence & A Participation Boom Drove A 1% Rise In The Unemployment Rate
www.employamerica.org/labor-market...
It Wasn't A Recession - How Age Divergence & A Participation Boom Drove A 1% Rise In The Unemployment Rate
Summary: The unemployment rate has risen 1% from its post-pandemic trough three years ago, but this rise likely overstates the degree of labor market and business cycle deterioration relative to what ...
www.employamerica.org
January 13, 2026 at 11:09 AM
Latest @employamerica.bsky.social
It Wasn't A Recession - How Age Divergence & A Participation Boom Drove A 1% Rise In The Unemployment Rate
www.employamerica.org/labor-market...
It Wasn't A Recession - How Age Divergence & A Participation Boom Drove A 1% Rise In The Unemployment Rate
www.employamerica.org/labor-market...
As this match kinda shows: if you spice up the pitch, cut out part time bowling and tail end batting, you probably can capture all that is great about test cricket in a duration of match comparable and competitive with t20s
December 27, 2025 at 3:25 AM
As this match kinda shows: if you spice up the pitch, cut out part time bowling and tail end batting, you probably can capture all that is great about test cricket in a duration of match comparable and competitive with t20s
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
4.44 shots plus key passes per 90, with 0.43 xG + xA
3.29 shots plus key passes per 90, with 0.34 xG + xA
One of these is Eze and one of these is Odegaard this season in the PL + CL.
3.29 shots plus key passes per 90, with 0.34 xG + xA
One of these is Eze and one of these is Odegaard this season in the PL + CL.
December 23, 2025 at 4:18 PM
4.44 shots plus key passes per 90, with 0.43 xG + xA
3.29 shots plus key passes per 90, with 0.34 xG + xA
One of these is Eze and one of these is Odegaard this season in the PL + CL.
3.29 shots plus key passes per 90, with 0.34 xG + xA
One of these is Eze and one of these is Odegaard this season in the PL + CL.
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
There are no shortcuts to affordability. stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/there-are-... My new piece argues that the challenge for policymakers now is to support stable, sustainable growth. No quick fixes or gimmicks. We need “some years” of good policy.
There are no shortcuts to affordability
As 2025 comes to a close, affordability is the lens through which all policymakers are being judged.
stayathomemacro.substack.com
December 18, 2025 at 3:13 AM
There are no shortcuts to affordability. stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/there-are-... My new piece argues that the challenge for policymakers now is to support stable, sustainable growth. No quick fixes or gimmicks. We need “some years” of good policy.
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
fair. but I'd say the growth slowdown in '18 wasn't a crisis. neither was the Fed jacking up rates. but a stock like META doesn't drop like this unless there's a *theme* -- somewhat similar to those 2 instances -- happening
November 21, 2025 at 11:44 PM
fair. but I'd say the growth slowdown in '18 wasn't a crisis. neither was the Fed jacking up rates. but a stock like META doesn't drop like this unless there's a *theme* -- somewhat similar to those 2 instances -- happening
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
META has four 25%+ drawdowns in 13 years. (1) the 2018 growth scare (2) covid (3) the Fed going from ZIRP (4) trump breaking world trade.
what's happening now isn't a run of the mill correction
what's happening now isn't a run of the mill correction
November 21, 2025 at 11:19 PM
META has four 25%+ drawdowns in 13 years. (1) the 2018 growth scare (2) covid (3) the Fed going from ZIRP (4) trump breaking world trade.
what's happening now isn't a run of the mill correction
what's happening now isn't a run of the mill correction
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
half of ORCL's 40%+ drawdowns happened during and after dotcom bubble. another was the 1987 crash.
multiple major stocks don't move like this unless something is *happening*
multiple major stocks don't move like this unless something is *happening*
November 21, 2025 at 11:24 PM
half of ORCL's 40%+ drawdowns happened during and after dotcom bubble. another was the 1987 crash.
multiple major stocks don't move like this unless something is *happening*
multiple major stocks don't move like this unless something is *happening*
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
Good @skandaamarnath.bsky.social interview by @robinsonmeyer.bsky.social
Especially like Skanda’s point about booms creating the opportunity for long lockups of capital that might otherwise negotiate more flighty terms.
overcast.fm/+ABGreBEvq-s
Especially like Skanda’s point about booms creating the opportunity for long lockups of capital that might otherwise negotiate more flighty terms.
overcast.fm/+ABGreBEvq-s
The Lesson Nuclear Companies Should Take From the Dot-Com Boom — Shift Key with Robinson Meyer and Jesse Jenkins
Electricity prices are the biggest economic issue in the New Jersey governor’s race, which is perhaps next month’s most closely watched election. Mikie Sherrill, the Democratic candidate and frontrunn...
overcast.fm
October 29, 2025 at 4:19 PM
Good @skandaamarnath.bsky.social interview by @robinsonmeyer.bsky.social
Especially like Skanda’s point about booms creating the opportunity for long lockups of capital that might otherwise negotiate more flighty terms.
overcast.fm/+ABGreBEvq-s
Especially like Skanda’s point about booms creating the opportunity for long lockups of capital that might otherwise negotiate more flighty terms.
overcast.fm/+ABGreBEvq-s
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
This week on Shift Key, I spoke with @skandaamarnath.bsky.social about how NJ’s power prices became central to its gov race, whether the nuclear industry is in an AI-fueled mania, and what lessons power companies should take from the dot-com boom: heatmap.news/podcast/shif...
The Lesson Nuclear Companies Should Take From the Dot-Com Boom
Rob talks New Jersey past, present, and future with Employ America’s Skanda Amarnath.
heatmap.news
October 29, 2025 at 5:32 PM
This week on Shift Key, I spoke with @skandaamarnath.bsky.social about how NJ’s power prices became central to its gov race, whether the nuclear industry is in an AI-fueled mania, and what lessons power companies should take from the dot-com boom: heatmap.news/podcast/shif...
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
Every shot of this Seattle crowd I see the classic PNW couple of “Librarian lady and mechanic man”
October 11, 2025 at 3:40 AM
Every shot of this Seattle crowd I see the classic PNW couple of “Librarian lady and mechanic man”
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
Kate Judge, Co-Chair, Better Markets Academic Advisory Board & Columbia Law Prof. joins @jeremykress.bsky.social, Assoc. Professor U-M Business and Co-Faculty Dir. U-M Ctr on Finance, Law & Policy; @skandaamarnath.bsky.social, Exec. Dir. @employamerica.bsky.social to discuss what's next for the Fed.
September 19, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Kate Judge, Co-Chair, Better Markets Academic Advisory Board & Columbia Law Prof. joins @jeremykress.bsky.social, Assoc. Professor U-M Business and Co-Faculty Dir. U-M Ctr on Finance, Law & Policy; @skandaamarnath.bsky.social, Exec. Dir. @employamerica.bsky.social to discuss what's next for the Fed.
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
seeing the squad depth that prevents a drop off from starters missing it’s like watching color tv for the first time
September 16, 2025 at 7:15 PM
seeing the squad depth that prevents a drop off from starters missing it’s like watching color tv for the first time
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
the cure for male loneliness is watching Arsenal go away in Europe without Saka, Saliba, Havertz, Odegaard, Jesus, White and not freaking out
September 16, 2025 at 2:19 PM
the cure for male loneliness is watching Arsenal go away in Europe without Saka, Saliba, Havertz, Odegaard, Jesus, White and not freaking out
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
Third straight year where there's been a week with a *huge* spike in initial claims filings for Texas. Prior two times were big one-offs. If that's the case again, the national claims data looks completely different...v similar to last couple of years.
September 11, 2025 at 2:23 PM
Third straight year where there's been a week with a *huge* spike in initial claims filings for Texas. Prior two times were big one-offs. If that's the case again, the national claims data looks completely different...v similar to last couple of years.