Skanda Amarnath
@skandaamarnath.bsky.social
Executive Director of Employ America
Macro / Labor / Finance / Energy / Chart posting
Macro / Labor / Finance / Energy / Chart posting
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
Good @skandaamarnath.bsky.social interview by @robinsonmeyer.bsky.social
Especially like Skanda’s point about booms creating the opportunity for long lockups of capital that might otherwise negotiate more flighty terms.
overcast.fm/+ABGreBEvq-s
Especially like Skanda’s point about booms creating the opportunity for long lockups of capital that might otherwise negotiate more flighty terms.
overcast.fm/+ABGreBEvq-s
The Lesson Nuclear Companies Should Take From the Dot-Com Boom — Shift Key with Robinson Meyer and Jesse Jenkins
Electricity prices are the biggest economic issue in the New Jersey governor’s race, which is perhaps next month’s most closely watched election. Mikie Sherrill, the Democratic candidate and frontrunn...
overcast.fm
October 29, 2025 at 4:19 PM
Good @skandaamarnath.bsky.social interview by @robinsonmeyer.bsky.social
Especially like Skanda’s point about booms creating the opportunity for long lockups of capital that might otherwise negotiate more flighty terms.
overcast.fm/+ABGreBEvq-s
Especially like Skanda’s point about booms creating the opportunity for long lockups of capital that might otherwise negotiate more flighty terms.
overcast.fm/+ABGreBEvq-s
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
This week on Shift Key, I spoke with @skandaamarnath.bsky.social about how NJ’s power prices became central to its gov race, whether the nuclear industry is in an AI-fueled mania, and what lessons power companies should take from the dot-com boom: heatmap.news/podcast/shif...
The Lesson Nuclear Companies Should Take From the Dot-Com Boom
Rob talks New Jersey past, present, and future with Employ America’s Skanda Amarnath.
heatmap.news
October 29, 2025 at 5:32 PM
This week on Shift Key, I spoke with @skandaamarnath.bsky.social about how NJ’s power prices became central to its gov race, whether the nuclear industry is in an AI-fueled mania, and what lessons power companies should take from the dot-com boom: heatmap.news/podcast/shif...
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
Every shot of this Seattle crowd I see the classic PNW couple of “Librarian lady and mechanic man”
October 11, 2025 at 3:40 AM
Every shot of this Seattle crowd I see the classic PNW couple of “Librarian lady and mechanic man”
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
Kate Judge, Co-Chair, Better Markets Academic Advisory Board & Columbia Law Prof. joins @jeremykress.bsky.social, Assoc. Professor U-M Business and Co-Faculty Dir. U-M Ctr on Finance, Law & Policy; @skandaamarnath.bsky.social, Exec. Dir. @employamerica.bsky.social to discuss what's next for the Fed.
September 19, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Kate Judge, Co-Chair, Better Markets Academic Advisory Board & Columbia Law Prof. joins @jeremykress.bsky.social, Assoc. Professor U-M Business and Co-Faculty Dir. U-M Ctr on Finance, Law & Policy; @skandaamarnath.bsky.social, Exec. Dir. @employamerica.bsky.social to discuss what's next for the Fed.
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
seeing the squad depth that prevents a drop off from starters missing it’s like watching color tv for the first time
September 16, 2025 at 7:15 PM
seeing the squad depth that prevents a drop off from starters missing it’s like watching color tv for the first time
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
the cure for male loneliness is watching Arsenal go away in Europe without Saka, Saliba, Havertz, Odegaard, Jesus, White and not freaking out
September 16, 2025 at 2:19 PM
the cure for male loneliness is watching Arsenal go away in Europe without Saka, Saliba, Havertz, Odegaard, Jesus, White and not freaking out
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
Third straight year where there's been a week with a *huge* spike in initial claims filings for Texas. Prior two times were big one-offs. If that's the case again, the national claims data looks completely different...v similar to last couple of years.
September 11, 2025 at 2:23 PM
Third straight year where there's been a week with a *huge* spike in initial claims filings for Texas. Prior two times were big one-offs. If that's the case again, the national claims data looks completely different...v similar to last couple of years.
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
@skandaamarnath.bsky.social and I have a piece out about Stephen Miran, who is being considered for the Fed Board, and some of his concerning views around debt default, dollar policy, and fed independence.
Some was covered at the hearing, but there's more...
www.employamerica.org/monetary-pol...
Some was covered at the hearing, but there's more...
www.employamerica.org/monetary-pol...
Treasury Default, A Weak Dollar Policy, and Mass Fed Firings? What The Miran Hearing Missed
The confirmation hearing for Miran aired some key issues, but hardly all of them, and not the most important ones. It would be unwise to make an exception for seemingly “short-term” appointments; shor...
www.employamerica.org
September 9, 2025 at 5:29 PM
@skandaamarnath.bsky.social and I have a piece out about Stephen Miran, who is being considered for the Fed Board, and some of his concerning views around debt default, dollar policy, and fed independence.
Some was covered at the hearing, but there's more...
www.employamerica.org/monetary-pol...
Some was covered at the hearing, but there's more...
www.employamerica.org/monetary-pol...
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
My papers arguing that the "Abundance Movement" needs broadening to include place-based jobs policies for distressed places are being released today, with a long paper at the Upjohn Institute & a shorter summary at Brookings Metro.
September 2, 2025 at 3:38 PM
My papers arguing that the "Abundance Movement" needs broadening to include place-based jobs policies for distressed places are being released today, with a long paper at the Upjohn Institute & a shorter summary at Brookings Metro.
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
Point 2: The framework prevented the Fed from being forward-looking in their rate-making decision, delaying their decision to raise rates.
It's true that their 2020 forward guidance was based on realized outcomes...
It's true that their 2020 forward guidance was based on realized outcomes...
August 14, 2025 at 8:51 PM
Point 2: The framework prevented the Fed from being forward-looking in their rate-making decision, delaying their decision to raise rates.
It's true that their 2020 forward guidance was based on realized outcomes...
It's true that their 2020 forward guidance was based on realized outcomes...
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
My reading of the record is that the real effect of this language was to expand the Fed's assessment of the labor market beyond just the U-3 unemployment rate (the long-run projection of which did not change much), esp. to participation and empl. rates.
August 14, 2025 at 8:51 PM
My reading of the record is that the real effect of this language was to expand the Fed's assessment of the labor market beyond just the U-3 unemployment rate (the long-run projection of which did not change much), esp. to participation and empl. rates.
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
Point 1: The role of "broad-based and inclusive." RR argue that the Fed pursued an “overly optimistic interpretation of maximum employment" in order to "increase job opportunities for historically disadvantaged groups" because of this.
August 14, 2025 at 8:51 PM
Point 1: The role of "broad-based and inclusive." RR argue that the Fed pursued an “overly optimistic interpretation of maximum employment" in order to "increase job opportunities for historically disadvantaged groups" because of this.
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
In a paper last year, Romer and Romer (2024) critique these additions to the framework, arguing that this language contributed to delaying the Fed's rate hikes in response to inflation in 2021-2022. I disagree with three key points in their paper.
eml.berkeley.edu/~cromer/Repr...
eml.berkeley.edu/~cromer/Repr...
eml.berkeley.edu
August 14, 2025 at 8:51 PM
In a paper last year, Romer and Romer (2024) critique these additions to the framework, arguing that this language contributed to delaying the Fed's rate hikes in response to inflation in 2021-2022. I disagree with three key points in their paper.
eml.berkeley.edu/~cromer/Repr...
eml.berkeley.edu/~cromer/Repr...
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
The Fed is currently undergoing a review of its framework, which will codify monetary policy strategy over the next few years.
In 2020 they made added this language to the statement, placing a greater emphasis on the full employment aspect of the mandate
In 2020 they made added this language to the statement, placing a greater emphasis on the full employment aspect of the mandate
August 14, 2025 at 8:51 PM
The Fed is currently undergoing a review of its framework, which will codify monetary policy strategy over the next few years.
In 2020 they made added this language to the statement, placing a greater emphasis on the full employment aspect of the mandate
In 2020 they made added this language to the statement, placing a greater emphasis on the full employment aspect of the mandate
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
New from me at @employamerica.bsky.social
In Defense of the 2020 Fed Framework's Emphasis on Full Employment
www.employamerica.org/monetary-pol...
In Defense of the 2020 Fed Framework's Emphasis on Full Employment
www.employamerica.org/monetary-pol...
In Defense of the 2020 Fed Framework's Emphasis on Full Employment
The 2020 Fed Framework changes around full employment were appropriate and an important part of achieving the full employment recovery seen after the pandemic. Blaming it for historically unique deman...
www.employamerica.org
August 14, 2025 at 8:51 PM
New from me at @employamerica.bsky.social
In Defense of the 2020 Fed Framework's Emphasis on Full Employment
www.employamerica.org/monetary-pol...
In Defense of the 2020 Fed Framework's Emphasis on Full Employment
www.employamerica.org/monetary-pol...
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
For another take on what the Fed should do with its framework review, check out @skandaamarnath.bsky.social's piece on specific language changes the Fed can make to better deal with supply shocks.
www.employamerica.org/monetary-pol...
www.employamerica.org/monetary-pol...
The Supply Problem In The Fed's Framework - Part 5: Revising The Consensus Statement For Supply-Aware Monetary Policy
This is the final post in our multi-part series on the Fed's 2025 framework review and strategy for dealing with supply shocks. Part 1 discusses how the Fed can deal with tariff inflation risks, Part ...
www.employamerica.org
August 14, 2025 at 8:51 PM
For another take on what the Fed should do with its framework review, check out @skandaamarnath.bsky.social's piece on specific language changes the Fed can make to better deal with supply shocks.
www.employamerica.org/monetary-pol...
www.employamerica.org/monetary-pol...
The trade component of this is the most underrated and most compelling.
Plenty of components and equipment involved in growing the supply side for electricity where the US either imports or benefits from import competition.
Not just from China, but Japan, Korea, EU...
Plenty of components and equipment involved in growing the supply side for electricity where the US either imports or benefits from import competition.
Not just from China, but Japan, Korea, EU...
He repealed much of the IRA. They tried to explicitly tax wind and solar build out. They’re taxing imported products that are vital for electricity connection. Just blame Trump.
August 16, 2025 at 4:31 PM
The trade component of this is the most underrated and most compelling.
Plenty of components and equipment involved in growing the supply side for electricity where the US either imports or benefits from import competition.
Not just from China, but Japan, Korea, EU...
Plenty of components and equipment involved in growing the supply side for electricity where the US either imports or benefits from import competition.
Not just from China, but Japan, Korea, EU...
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
Also for all the talk of consumer spending weakness, auto sales volumes accelerated late last year and if you look through swings driven by front-running of tariffs and the unwind, they're very much holding those gains.
August 4, 2025 at 2:38 PM
Also for all the talk of consumer spending weakness, auto sales volumes accelerated late last year and if you look through swings driven by front-running of tariffs and the unwind, they're very much holding those gains.
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
"why are stocks rising instead of falling because Orange Man Bad" maybe because guidance raises outnumbered guidance cuts by 60 reports last week, 99th percentile since 2001. Absolute number of guidance hikes was 84, in the 98.9th percentile for all weeks since 2001. Crazy strong!
August 4, 2025 at 2:35 PM
"why are stocks rising instead of falling because Orange Man Bad" maybe because guidance raises outnumbered guidance cuts by 60 reports last week, 99th percentile since 2001. Absolute number of guidance hikes was 84, in the 98.9th percentile for all weeks since 2001. Crazy strong!
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
A lot of folks still have 2000-2010s era power prices in their heads as “normal” with an expectation that we will return to “normal” at some point.
There are many reasons that isn’t true, but this is probably the biggest among them. We are in a new era of power prices.
There are many reasons that isn’t true, but this is probably the biggest among them. We are in a new era of power prices.
July 30, 2025 at 4:36 PM
A lot of folks still have 2000-2010s era power prices in their heads as “normal” with an expectation that we will return to “normal” at some point.
There are many reasons that isn’t true, but this is probably the biggest among them. We are in a new era of power prices.
There are many reasons that isn’t true, but this is probably the biggest among them. We are in a new era of power prices.
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
Partly it's mineral-specific strategy. But mostly the US needs not piles of minerals but knowhow + operating projects, for which price volatility + market illiquidity dissuade investment.
This problem calls for an active reserve fund, not a passive hoard of minerals.
This problem calls for an active reserve fund, not a passive hoard of minerals.
July 22, 2025 at 2:32 PM
Partly it's mineral-specific strategy. But mostly the US needs not piles of minerals but knowhow + operating projects, for which price volatility + market illiquidity dissuade investment.
This problem calls for an active reserve fund, not a passive hoard of minerals.
This problem calls for an active reserve fund, not a passive hoard of minerals.
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
Should a US national critical minerals reserve program act more like the National Defense Stockpile or more like the Strategic Petroleum Reserve? Major new report by my team deep dives into this question, looking at 15 minerals relevant to energy.
My thoughts🧵:
thebreakthrough.org/issues/energ...
My thoughts🧵:
thebreakthrough.org/issues/energ...
Taking Inventory of Critical Mineral Stockpiling
The Breakthrough Institute is an environmental research center based in Berkeley, California. Our research focuses on identifying and promoting…
thebreakthrough.org
July 22, 2025 at 2:32 PM
Should a US national critical minerals reserve program act more like the National Defense Stockpile or more like the Strategic Petroleum Reserve? Major new report by my team deep dives into this question, looking at 15 minerals relevant to energy.
My thoughts🧵:
thebreakthrough.org/issues/energ...
My thoughts🧵:
thebreakthrough.org/issues/energ...
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
The affirmative xG case is never going to sway everyone, especially when there's some ugly eye test involved. But if you're saying "he plays the same position as Saka" you learned nothing from last season, and if you're saying "Chelsea transfers never work" you shouldn't be allowed to drive a car
July 18, 2025 at 5:51 PM
The affirmative xG case is never going to sway everyone, especially when there's some ugly eye test involved. But if you're saying "he plays the same position as Saka" you learned nothing from last season, and if you're saying "Chelsea transfers never work" you shouldn't be allowed to drive a car
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
I'm convinced Noni Madueke is going to be a great Arsenal player, mostly because the arguments against him have been (and I say this advisedly) based on some of the stupidest takes I've seen in any sport in the past decade.
July 18, 2025 at 5:47 PM
I'm convinced Noni Madueke is going to be a great Arsenal player, mostly because the arguments against him have been (and I say this advisedly) based on some of the stupidest takes I've seen in any sport in the past decade.
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
US oil rig counts (proxy for drilling activity) down 13% YTD.
July 18, 2025 at 5:04 PM
US oil rig counts (proxy for drilling activity) down 13% YTD.