Chris Giles
@chrisgiles.ft.com
Economics Commentator, Financial Times; Honorary Professor of Practice, UCL Policy Lab
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With Kevin Warsh at the Fed, will Trump do a Lula? Or will another scenario prevail?
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
February 3, 2026 at 12:37 PM
With Kevin Warsh at the Fed, will Trump do a Lula? Or will another scenario prevail?
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
New Fed chair - my column
as.ft.com/r/14f402f0-6...
as.ft.com/r/14f402f0-6...
Kevin Warsh will bring conviction economics to the Fed
[FREE TO READ] Trump’s choice of chair will shift from Powell’s data-dependent approach to policy
as.ft.com
January 30, 2026 at 1:18 PM
New Fed chair - my column
as.ft.com/r/14f402f0-6...
as.ft.com/r/14f402f0-6...
Reposted by Chris Giles
EVENT: Does the UK fiscal framework need a rethink?
Thurs 19 Feb | 3pm – 5pm
@benzaranko.bsky.social presents a major new report on the UK fiscal framework, with panelists @chrisgiles.ft.com, Victoria Clarke, Rupert Harrison & @helenmiller.bsky.social.
📅 Sign up here ⬇️ ifs.org.uk/events/does-...
Thurs 19 Feb | 3pm – 5pm
@benzaranko.bsky.social presents a major new report on the UK fiscal framework, with panelists @chrisgiles.ft.com, Victoria Clarke, Rupert Harrison & @helenmiller.bsky.social.
📅 Sign up here ⬇️ ifs.org.uk/events/does-...
January 30, 2026 at 12:34 PM
EVENT: Does the UK fiscal framework need a rethink?
Thurs 19 Feb | 3pm – 5pm
@benzaranko.bsky.social presents a major new report on the UK fiscal framework, with panelists @chrisgiles.ft.com, Victoria Clarke, Rupert Harrison & @helenmiller.bsky.social.
📅 Sign up here ⬇️ ifs.org.uk/events/does-...
Thurs 19 Feb | 3pm – 5pm
@benzaranko.bsky.social presents a major new report on the UK fiscal framework, with panelists @chrisgiles.ft.com, Victoria Clarke, Rupert Harrison & @helenmiller.bsky.social.
📅 Sign up here ⬇️ ifs.org.uk/events/does-...
When I last wrote about Kevin Warsh
www.ft.com/content/cb2b...
www.ft.com/content/cb2b...
Kevin Warsh delivers Fed a blast of cold heir
How would the former central bank governor change the institution?
www.ft.com
January 30, 2026 at 11:58 AM
When I last wrote about Kevin Warsh
www.ft.com/content/cb2b...
www.ft.com/content/cb2b...
As far as I could tell listening to the Supreme Court justices, it was a good day in court for the Fed's Lisa Cook and a bad one for Donald Trump...
as.ft.com/r/6d1cf796-d...
as.ft.com/r/6d1cf796-d...
A good day in court for Lisa Cook
[FREE TO READ] Supreme Court justices gave the US administration a tough time in the oral hearing
as.ft.com
January 21, 2026 at 6:07 PM
As far as I could tell listening to the Supreme Court justices, it was a good day in court for the Fed's Lisa Cook and a bad one for Donald Trump...
as.ft.com/r/6d1cf796-d...
as.ft.com/r/6d1cf796-d...
In both the US and the UK there is a dispute about whether the country is about to hit net zero (migration)...
.... this is really interesting from a forecasting and data quality perspective
... and one of economic consequences
as.ft.com/r/a8f22043-1...
.... this is really interesting from a forecasting and data quality perspective
... and one of economic consequences
as.ft.com/r/a8f22043-1...
What happens if the UK and US reach net zero (migration)?
[FREE TO READ] We would need to rethink sustainable growth rates and fiscal targets
as.ft.com
January 21, 2026 at 5:54 PM
In both the US and the UK there is a dispute about whether the country is about to hit net zero (migration)...
.... this is really interesting from a forecasting and data quality perspective
... and one of economic consequences
as.ft.com/r/a8f22043-1...
.... this is really interesting from a forecasting and data quality perspective
... and one of economic consequences
as.ft.com/r/a8f22043-1...
For people wanting a nerdy Christmas - an ebook resulting from a UK monetary policy roundtable (including a chapter from me)
2 topics:
- what to do when the next large negative shock hits
- how to communicate uncertainty
niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/u...
2 topics:
- what to do when the next large negative shock hits
- how to communicate uncertainty
niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/u...
December 22, 2025 at 11:42 AM
For people wanting a nerdy Christmas - an ebook resulting from a UK monetary policy roundtable (including a chapter from me)
2 topics:
- what to do when the next large negative shock hits
- how to communicate uncertainty
niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/u...
2 topics:
- what to do when the next large negative shock hits
- how to communicate uncertainty
niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/u...
Obviously, people will say this is Panglossian nonsense…
.. I prefer, “factual”
as.ft.com/r/f040c3e5-9... The UK economy is not nearly as bad as you’ve been told
.. I prefer, “factual”
as.ft.com/r/f040c3e5-9... The UK economy is not nearly as bad as you’ve been told
The UK economy is not nearly as bad as you’ve been told
[FREE TO READ] A huge pessimistic bias in our national accounts leads us to doom and gloom which turns out to be nonsense
as.ft.com
December 12, 2025 at 11:22 AM
Obviously, people will say this is Panglossian nonsense…
.. I prefer, “factual”
as.ft.com/r/f040c3e5-9... The UK economy is not nearly as bad as you’ve been told
.. I prefer, “factual”
as.ft.com/r/f040c3e5-9... The UK economy is not nearly as bad as you’ve been told
Reposted by Chris Giles
Doom? gloom? not so fast says @chrisgiles.ft.com www.ft.com/content/5aff...
The UK economy is not nearly as bad as you’ve been told
A huge pessimistic bias in our national accounts leads us to doom and gloom which turns out to be nonsense
www.ft.com
December 12, 2025 at 11:15 AM
Doom? gloom? not so fast says @chrisgiles.ft.com www.ft.com/content/5aff...
Looking forward to this - join us thebudgetdecoded.live.ft.com
December 1, 2025 at 10:47 AM
Looking forward to this - join us thebudgetdecoded.live.ft.com
November 27, 2025 at 2:50 PM
Reposted by Chris Giles
"Senior officials in the OBR must be thinking about their positions, since a worse release of data cannot be imagined." - @chrisgiles.ft.com here in the FT Live blog www.ft.com/content/d0a5...
November 26, 2025 at 12:30 PM
"Senior officials in the OBR must be thinking about their positions, since a worse release of data cannot be imagined." - @chrisgiles.ft.com here in the FT Live blog www.ft.com/content/d0a5...
It was a spend and tax Budget, but at Monetary Policy Radar, we don't think this makes it harder for the BoE to cut rates (the numbers are too small)
on.ft.com/4onEnYK
on.ft.com/4onEnYK
November 26, 2025 at 3:17 PM
It was a spend and tax Budget, but at Monetary Policy Radar, we don't think this makes it harder for the BoE to cut rates (the numbers are too small)
on.ft.com/4onEnYK
on.ft.com/4onEnYK
Reposted by Chris Giles
New: 'Shark's fin' chart reveals the uneven impact of 'fiscal drag', the stealth tax beloved of recent chancellors. Plus use our interactive calculator to see how fresh freezes announced by Rachel Reeves at todays Budget could affect you on.ft.com/3KqOYUL
November 26, 2025 at 8:37 AM
New: 'Shark's fin' chart reveals the uneven impact of 'fiscal drag', the stealth tax beloved of recent chancellors. Plus use our interactive calculator to see how fresh freezes announced by Rachel Reeves at todays Budget could affect you on.ft.com/3KqOYUL
My experience of jury service (when the courts were not a mess) led me to the same view
My view is anecdotal and I do think we got the verdict right in the two cases I sat in. We were dismissed in the third because a witness revealed the defendant’s criminal past. That was obvious from the guards
My view is anecdotal and I do think we got the verdict right in the two cases I sat in. We were dismissed in the third because a witness revealed the defendant’s criminal past. That was obvious from the guards
We should abolish juries because
1. The don't give reasons
2. There is little evidence of their competence
3. We don't use them outside a narrow area of the criminal law, other jurisdictions don't use them and are perfectly just
/1
1. The don't give reasons
2. There is little evidence of their competence
3. We don't use them outside a narrow area of the criminal law, other jurisdictions don't use them and are perfectly just
/1
November 25, 2025 at 7:45 PM
My experience of jury service (when the courts were not a mess) led me to the same view
My view is anecdotal and I do think we got the verdict right in the two cases I sat in. We were dismissed in the third because a witness revealed the defendant’s criminal past. That was obvious from the guards
My view is anecdotal and I do think we got the verdict right in the two cases I sat in. We were dismissed in the third because a witness revealed the defendant’s criminal past. That was obvious from the guards
Reposted by Chris Giles
Very irritating quiz
I failed to get them all right
I failed to get them all right
November 19, 2025 at 6:33 AM
Very irritating quiz
I failed to get them all right
I failed to get them all right
Very irritating quiz
I failed to get them all right
I failed to get them all right
November 19, 2025 at 6:33 AM
Very irritating quiz
I failed to get them all right
I failed to get them all right
Some 24 million US people are facing very large increases in their health insurance bills.
My newsletter examines how these price increases will show up in US inflation.
on.ft.com/47MdE2Z The unhealthy state of US price statistics
My newsletter examines how these price increases will show up in US inflation.
on.ft.com/47MdE2Z The unhealthy state of US price statistics
November 18, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Some 24 million US people are facing very large increases in their health insurance bills.
My newsletter examines how these price increases will show up in US inflation.
on.ft.com/47MdE2Z The unhealthy state of US price statistics
My newsletter examines how these price increases will show up in US inflation.
on.ft.com/47MdE2Z The unhealthy state of US price statistics
Reposted by Chris Giles
We won a prize last night for best essay! Based on our work using the FT's archive to develop an economic sentiment index (what we have called the 'macro mood')
Essay will be live shortly, amalgamation of a few articles. Some details here: on.ft.com/4n2TVBq
Essay will be live shortly, amalgamation of a few articles. Some details here: on.ft.com/4n2TVBq
November 18, 2025 at 12:13 PM
We won a prize last night for best essay! Based on our work using the FT's archive to develop an economic sentiment index (what we have called the 'macro mood')
Essay will be live shortly, amalgamation of a few articles. Some details here: on.ft.com/4n2TVBq
Essay will be live shortly, amalgamation of a few articles. Some details here: on.ft.com/4n2TVBq
Delighted to have won the Rybczynski Prize with @joelsuss.ft.com at the Society of Professional Economists for our essay on The value of text as data.
More here on.ft.com/4n2TVBq
More here on.ft.com/4n2TVBq
November 17, 2025 at 9:10 PM
Delighted to have won the Rybczynski Prize with @joelsuss.ft.com at the Society of Professional Economists for our essay on The value of text as data.
More here on.ft.com/4n2TVBq
More here on.ft.com/4n2TVBq
Want some good news about the UK economy for once...levels of GDP (and forecasts) keep getting revised up...
November 14, 2025 at 6:22 PM
Want some good news about the UK economy for once...levels of GDP (and forecasts) keep getting revised up...
Had great fun at @chathamhouse.org on a panel on independence of central banks www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4mn...
Is the age of central bank independence under threat?
YouTube video by Chatham House
www.youtube.com
November 14, 2025 at 11:18 AM
Had great fun at @chathamhouse.org on a panel on independence of central banks www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4mn...
This seems even more pertinent today www.ft.com/content/99d2...
The truth about the UK economy in 2025
It is not the story that the chancellor would like to tell you
www.ft.com
November 14, 2025 at 10:03 AM
This seems even more pertinent today www.ft.com/content/99d2...
TBH
Not a popular thing to say, but the big problem with the UK direct tax system is that it taxes middle incomes too low, if we move from an income tax rate/ NI switcheroo to lower allowances, that is an improvement.
That is a big “if” though.
Not a popular thing to say, but the big problem with the UK direct tax system is that it taxes middle incomes too low, if we move from an income tax rate/ NI switcheroo to lower allowances, that is an improvement.
That is a big “if” though.
November 14, 2025 at 8:52 AM
TBH
Not a popular thing to say, but the big problem with the UK direct tax system is that it taxes middle incomes too low, if we move from an income tax rate/ NI switcheroo to lower allowances, that is an improvement.
That is a big “if” though.
Not a popular thing to say, but the big problem with the UK direct tax system is that it taxes middle incomes too low, if we move from an income tax rate/ NI switcheroo to lower allowances, that is an improvement.
That is a big “if” though.
Ahead of the Budget there is quite a bit of misinformation
So - as a primer - here is the truth about the UK economy in 2025 www.ft.com/content/99d2...
So - as a primer - here is the truth about the UK economy in 2025 www.ft.com/content/99d2...
November 12, 2025 at 12:25 PM
Ahead of the Budget there is quite a bit of misinformation
So - as a primer - here is the truth about the UK economy in 2025 www.ft.com/content/99d2...
So - as a primer - here is the truth about the UK economy in 2025 www.ft.com/content/99d2...