Chris Giles
@chrisgiles.ft.com
Economics Commentator, Financial Times; Honorary Professor of Practice, UCL Policy Lab
Sign up to my central banks newsletter here https://ep.ft.com/newsletters/subscribe?newsletterIds=6501cc9ec6e3c91c18b0b9e6
Sign up to my central banks newsletter here https://ep.ft.com/newsletters/subscribe?newsletterIds=6501cc9ec6e3c91c18b0b9e6
Great fun talking to Richard Thaler for the FT's Economics show
- I ask hom how nudge theory might help Donald Trump understand that tariffs are bad economics (and a lot else)
www.ft.com/content/c0f7...
- I ask hom how nudge theory might help Donald Trump understand that tariffs are bad economics (and a lot else)
www.ft.com/content/c0f7...
What economics gets wrong about human behaviour, with Richard Thaler
The founding father of behavioural economics on why we still make bad decisions
www.ft.com
November 7, 2025 at 1:09 PM
Great fun talking to Richard Thaler for the FT's Economics show
- I ask hom how nudge theory might help Donald Trump understand that tariffs are bad economics (and a lot else)
www.ft.com/content/c0f7...
- I ask hom how nudge theory might help Donald Trump understand that tariffs are bad economics (and a lot else)
www.ft.com/content/c0f7...
Today seems a good day to repost this.
It’s also a good day to remember you cannot do anything granular and sensible with Labour Force Survey data at the moment
And the inactivity rate has plummeted since the data work for the Mayfield review was done*
It’s also a good day to remember you cannot do anything granular and sensible with Labour Force Survey data at the moment
And the inactivity rate has plummeted since the data work for the Mayfield review was done*
There is no need for a moral panic about the UK's welfare system.
Far from perfect but recent discourse is nuts
Spending is controlled, not spiralling
Worklessness is near record lows
My column www.ft.com/content/ee67...
Far from perfect but recent discourse is nuts
Spending is controlled, not spiralling
Worklessness is near record lows
My column www.ft.com/content/ee67...
November 5, 2025 at 7:46 AM
Today seems a good day to repost this.
It’s also a good day to remember you cannot do anything granular and sensible with Labour Force Survey data at the moment
And the inactivity rate has plummeted since the data work for the Mayfield review was done*
It’s also a good day to remember you cannot do anything granular and sensible with Labour Force Survey data at the moment
And the inactivity rate has plummeted since the data work for the Mayfield review was done*
US financial markets clearly do not see the Trump administration's challenges to the Fed have any effect on expected inflation.
My newsletter asks why: www.ft.com/content/e2db...
My newsletter asks why: www.ft.com/content/e2db...
November 4, 2025 at 1:32 PM
US financial markets clearly do not see the Trump administration's challenges to the Fed have any effect on expected inflation.
My newsletter asks why: www.ft.com/content/e2db...
My newsletter asks why: www.ft.com/content/e2db...
I keep being told spending cuts are easy. Honest proposals such as those recently outlined by Policy Exchange show they are not
My column www.ft.com/content/f086...
My column www.ft.com/content/f086...
October 30, 2025 at 8:05 AM
I keep being told spending cuts are easy. Honest proposals such as those recently outlined by Policy Exchange show they are not
My column www.ft.com/content/f086...
My column www.ft.com/content/f086...
Reposted by Chris Giles
Anyone who thinks cutting public spending is easy should read this article. Anyone who thinks increasing public investment will automatically increase growth should read this article. @warrenoates1.bsky.social
October 29, 2025 at 7:07 PM
Anyone who thinks cutting public spending is easy should read this article. Anyone who thinks increasing public investment will automatically increase growth should read this article. @warrenoates1.bsky.social
It's beautiful...
... and a collosal waste of money that won't drive growth
www.ft.com/content/f086...
... and a collosal waste of money that won't drive growth
www.ft.com/content/f086...
The bridge that bursts Britain’s public spending myths
Investment is a long game that does not transform the immediate growth outlook, and cuts are difficult
www.ft.com
October 29, 2025 at 5:55 PM
It's beautiful...
... and a collosal waste of money that won't drive growth
www.ft.com/content/f086...
... and a collosal waste of money that won't drive growth
www.ft.com/content/f086...
Reposted by Chris Giles
"Markets are no longer taking guidance from the Fed about low long-term interest rates. Instead, they have priced in significant term premia, representing their requirement for higher returns for holding long-term government debt."
We bang on about the Fed's influence and its importance in shaping markets
....but that's been waning
..10y Treasury yields used to move in a 3-day window around Fed meetings
My newsletter examines why not any more www.ft.com/content/c396...
....but that's been waning
..10y Treasury yields used to move in a 3-day window around Fed meetings
My newsletter examines why not any more www.ft.com/content/c396...
October 28, 2025 at 2:04 PM
"Markets are no longer taking guidance from the Fed about low long-term interest rates. Instead, they have priced in significant term premia, representing their requirement for higher returns for holding long-term government debt."
I have fixed the rendering problem on this article (because there was just too much dammned data). It should load properly now www.ft.com/content/c396...
October 28, 2025 at 6:12 PM
I have fixed the rendering problem on this article (because there was just too much dammned data). It should load properly now www.ft.com/content/c396...
We bang on about the Fed's influence and its importance in shaping markets
....but that's been waning
..10y Treasury yields used to move in a 3-day window around Fed meetings
My newsletter examines why not any more www.ft.com/content/c396...
....but that's been waning
..10y Treasury yields used to move in a 3-day window around Fed meetings
My newsletter examines why not any more www.ft.com/content/c396...
October 28, 2025 at 1:27 PM
We bang on about the Fed's influence and its importance in shaping markets
....but that's been waning
..10y Treasury yields used to move in a 3-day window around Fed meetings
My newsletter examines why not any more www.ft.com/content/c396...
....but that's been waning
..10y Treasury yields used to move in a 3-day window around Fed meetings
My newsletter examines why not any more www.ft.com/content/c396...
At the @financialtimes.com Monetary Policy Radar, we produce monthly scenarios for interest rates
Options for more cuts have opened up as we expected
www.ft.com/content/9985...
Options for more cuts have opened up as we expected
www.ft.com/content/9985...
October 23, 2025 at 11:33 AM
At the @financialtimes.com Monetary Policy Radar, we produce monthly scenarios for interest rates
Options for more cuts have opened up as we expected
www.ft.com/content/9985...
Options for more cuts have opened up as we expected
www.ft.com/content/9985...
Reposted by Chris Giles
Sometimes, as a public service, I read a book so you don't have to...
... this is one of those times
www.ft.com/content/7ad4...
... this is one of those times
www.ft.com/content/7ad4...
October 22, 2025 at 11:54 AM
Sometimes, as a public service, I read a book so you don't have to...
... this is one of those times
www.ft.com/content/7ad4...
... this is one of those times
www.ft.com/content/7ad4...
A boring UK Budget interest rate primer....
... don't get too hung up on forecasting the date for the window of gilt rates (my guess 10 working days before 17 October)
... don't get too hung up on forecasting the date for the window of gilt rates (my guess 10 working days before 17 October)
October 22, 2025 at 4:26 PM
A boring UK Budget interest rate primer....
... don't get too hung up on forecasting the date for the window of gilt rates (my guess 10 working days before 17 October)
... don't get too hung up on forecasting the date for the window of gilt rates (my guess 10 working days before 17 October)
Reposted by Chris Giles
Enjoyable in the same way as a review that absolutely slates the food at an overpriced pretentious restaurant, from @chrisgiles.ft.com on.ft.com/3J8FRHN
Prosperity Through Growth — a not so cunning plan to put Britain back on track
A would-be blueprint for Conservative boosterism is a curious collection of old economic ideas
on.ft.com
October 22, 2025 at 12:55 PM
Enjoyable in the same way as a review that absolutely slates the food at an overpriced pretentious restaurant, from @chrisgiles.ft.com on.ft.com/3J8FRHN
Sometimes, as a public service, I read a book so you don't have to...
... this is one of those times
www.ft.com/content/7ad4...
... this is one of those times
www.ft.com/content/7ad4...
October 22, 2025 at 11:54 AM
Sometimes, as a public service, I read a book so you don't have to...
... this is one of those times
www.ft.com/content/7ad4...
... this is one of those times
www.ft.com/content/7ad4...
There is an unusual lack of any consensus globally on financial stability
US is liberalising, BoE is conflicted, ECB is worried
US is liberalising, BoE is conflicted, ECB is worried
October 21, 2025 at 12:49 PM
There is an unusual lack of any consensus globally on financial stability
US is liberalising, BoE is conflicted, ECB is worried
US is liberalising, BoE is conflicted, ECB is worried
Reposted by Chris Giles
Apropos of nothing, I really do think UK journalists and politicians need some reminding that mass deportation of LEGAL immigrants, particularly those with permanent status, is far more extreme than even Trump's America and would basically place Britain completely on its own among democracies.
October 19, 2025 at 11:32 AM
Apropos of nothing, I really do think UK journalists and politicians need some reminding that mass deportation of LEGAL immigrants, particularly those with permanent status, is far more extreme than even Trump's America and would basically place Britain completely on its own among democracies.
Reposted by Chris Giles
@chrisgiles.ft.com column is fact filled and well worth reading
Column on.ft.com/4nXfXWA No need for a moral panic about the welfare system
Letter on.ft.com/4hlzYUm Letter: Only a strong economy can address Britain’s worklessness crisis
You decide
Letter on.ft.com/4hlzYUm Letter: Only a strong economy can address Britain’s worklessness crisis
You decide
No need for a moral panic about the welfare system
[FREE TO READ] It’s far from perfect, but the UK’s spending is broadly controlled and employment is high
on.ft.com
October 17, 2025 at 4:01 PM
@chrisgiles.ft.com column is fact filled and well worth reading
My column annoyed somebody this week
October 17, 2025 at 9:56 AM
My column annoyed somebody this week
Hang on ... you're using lots of inconsitent stuff here. What you want is the labour compensation share of GDP and it's been.....
..... flat
So pay and benefits in line broadly with GDP since Thatcher and it is all rather unexciting
..... flat
So pay and benefits in line broadly with GDP since Thatcher and it is all rather unexciting
October 16, 2025 at 2:40 PM
Hang on ... you're using lots of inconsitent stuff here. What you want is the labour compensation share of GDP and it's been.....
..... flat
So pay and benefits in line broadly with GDP since Thatcher and it is all rather unexciting
..... flat
So pay and benefits in line broadly with GDP since Thatcher and it is all rather unexciting
This is what you requested...
... not sure the answer is what you expected (if you had read my column and you would have known this)
... not sure the answer is what you expected (if you had read my column and you would have known this)
October 16, 2025 at 11:31 AM
This is what you requested...
... not sure the answer is what you expected (if you had read my column and you would have known this)
... not sure the answer is what you expected (if you had read my column and you would have known this)
Reposted by Chris Giles
A much needed corrective by @chrisgiles.ft.com to the "welfare is out of control" narrative, drawing on research by my colleague @benbgeiger.bsky.social
www.ft.com/content/ee67...
www.ft.com/content/ee67...
No need for a moral panic about the welfare system
It’s far from perfect, but the UK’s spending is broadly controlled and employment is high
www.ft.com
October 15, 2025 at 1:17 PM
A much needed corrective by @chrisgiles.ft.com to the "welfare is out of control" narrative, drawing on research by my colleague @benbgeiger.bsky.social
www.ft.com/content/ee67...
www.ft.com/content/ee67...
There is no need for a moral panic about the UK's welfare system.
Far from perfect but recent discourse is nuts
Spending is controlled, not spiralling
Worklessness is near record lows
My column www.ft.com/content/ee67...
Far from perfect but recent discourse is nuts
Spending is controlled, not spiralling
Worklessness is near record lows
My column www.ft.com/content/ee67...
October 15, 2025 at 12:35 PM
There is no need for a moral panic about the UK's welfare system.
Far from perfect but recent discourse is nuts
Spending is controlled, not spiralling
Worklessness is near record lows
My column www.ft.com/content/ee67...
Far from perfect but recent discourse is nuts
Spending is controlled, not spiralling
Worklessness is near record lows
My column www.ft.com/content/ee67...
Reposted by Chris Giles
👂🏼 POD TIME 👂🏼
Me and UK econ brainiac @chrisgiles.ft.com on THE BUDGET, featuring
-What's in the box? 🎁
-the quest to be boring 🥱
-the long shadow of Liz Truss 🥬
-Traitors 💕
-banging on about Dubai ❌
Etc
open.spotify.com/episode/71NB...
Me and UK econ brainiac @chrisgiles.ft.com on THE BUDGET, featuring
-What's in the box? 🎁
-the quest to be boring 🥱
-the long shadow of Liz Truss 🥬
-Traitors 💕
-banging on about Dubai ❌
Etc
open.spotify.com/episode/71NB...
UK Budget blues
open.spotify.com
October 15, 2025 at 7:33 AM
👂🏼 POD TIME 👂🏼
Me and UK econ brainiac @chrisgiles.ft.com on THE BUDGET, featuring
-What's in the box? 🎁
-the quest to be boring 🥱
-the long shadow of Liz Truss 🥬
-Traitors 💕
-banging on about Dubai ❌
Etc
open.spotify.com/episode/71NB...
Me and UK econ brainiac @chrisgiles.ft.com on THE BUDGET, featuring
-What's in the box? 🎁
-the quest to be boring 🥱
-the long shadow of Liz Truss 🥬
-Traitors 💕
-banging on about Dubai ❌
Etc
open.spotify.com/episode/71NB...
Looking forward to this - sign up
Calling @financialtimes.com subscribers: join us 23 October 1300 UK (1200 GMT) to discuss central banks, bonds, and the risks ahead. Register now and put your question to Lael Brainard, Fidelity's Salman Ahmed, @chrisgiles.ft.com, @katie0martin.ft.com, and @senojerialc.bsky.social. Go to ft.com/edge
October 14, 2025 at 3:26 PM
Looking forward to this - sign up
Reposted by Chris Giles
Calling @financialtimes.com subscribers: join us 23 October 1300 UK (1200 GMT) to discuss central banks, bonds, and the risks ahead. Register now and put your question to Lael Brainard, Fidelity's Salman Ahmed, @chrisgiles.ft.com, @katie0martin.ft.com, and @senojerialc.bsky.social. Go to ft.com/edge
October 14, 2025 at 11:57 AM
Calling @financialtimes.com subscribers: join us 23 October 1300 UK (1200 GMT) to discuss central banks, bonds, and the risks ahead. Register now and put your question to Lael Brainard, Fidelity's Salman Ahmed, @chrisgiles.ft.com, @katie0martin.ft.com, and @senojerialc.bsky.social. Go to ft.com/edge