Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
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pgourinchas.bsky.social
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
@pgourinchas.bsky.social

Research Director and Economic
Counsellor, International Monetary Fund

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas is a French economist who has been the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund since 2022. Gourinchas is also the S.K. and Angela Chan Professor of Management at the University of California, Berkeley. At the University of California, he also directs the Clausen Center for International Business and Policy and is affiliated with the Haas School of Business. His research focuses on macroeconomics, in particular international macroeconomics and international finance. In 2008, Gourinchas received the Prize of the Best Young Economist of France. .. more

Economics 95%
Business 4%

Reposted by Rafael Rojas, Steffen Mau, Joshua D. Angrist , and 347 more

Reposted by Mark Blyth, Matthew Goodwin, Edward Aspinall , and 350 more

To secure growth, countries must focus on what works: clear trade rules, fiscal discipline, robust policy frameworks, and investments in productivity. The alternative is slower, more volatile economic activity. www.imf.org/en/Publicati...

Our WEO analysis also shows that reducing policy uncertainty and lowering tariffs could lift global output by up to 0.7% in the near term. Clear trade rules and cooperation are more critical than ever. www.imf.org/en/Publicati...
World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim
The latest World Economic Outlook reports a slowdown in global growth with risks remaining tilted to the downside. As new policies slowly come to focus, adjustment to the emerging landscape should be ...
www.imf.org

Other forces are at play: AI investment is booming, echoing the dot-com era, while China's property sector struggles and fiscal pressures mount. These dynamics create a complex, uneven recovery.

Six months on, the tariff shock's impact has been smaller than expected thanks to agile supply chains and easy financial conditions. But with US tariffs still at almost 20% and tensions unresolved, the full effects will take time to unfold.

Our October WEO report is out. Global growth is expected to slow to 3.2% this year and 3.1% next year, defying fears of a sharper slowdown after the US tariff surge. Yet, this resilience masks deeper fragilities in trade, AI, and fiscal policy. imf.org/en/Blogs/Art...

Reposted by Andrea Presbitero

New WEO chapter is out. Industrial policy can raise production in a strategic sector, but this needs to be balanced against higher consumer prices, fiscal costs, and risks of misallocation. Managing these trade-offs is key. www.imf.org/en/Publicati...

Reposted by Andrea Presbitero

Despite these shifts, the international monetary system remains solidly anchored by the US dollar, which continues to provide global stability, even if the excess return on US foreign assets (the US 'exorbitant privilege') has declined over time. imf.org/en/Blogs/Art...

Global current account balances widened in 2024, reversing a narrowing trend. Our latest External Sector Report finds that 2/3 of this widening is excessive—driven by macroeconomic imbalances in China, the US, and the euro area. Read the full report a imf.org/en/Publicati...