Michael Clemens
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mclem.org
Michael Clemens
@mclem.org

Professor of economics at George Mason University, fellow at the Peterson Institute of International Economics, IZA, CReAM/UCL, CEPR, CGD. Associate Editor JEP. USAID 2021–2024. Personal views exclusively.

Web: http://mclem.org
ORCID: 0000-0003-1354-0965 .. more

Michael Andrew Clemens is an American economist who studies international migration and global economic development.

Source: Wikipedia
Economics 40%
Sociology 24%
Pinned
Migration does not have to be what it is now

Innovation can change what migration *is*—more orderly, skilled, integrated, & tangibly beneficial to everyone affected

In 2012 I proposed one way: Global Skill Partnerships

The World Bank just released a major GSP roadmap—> hdl.handle.net/10986/42780
New @nber.org paper with @caitlinpatler.bsky.social &
@elizabethacox.bsky.social out!

We examine how ICE arrests differ in Trump 2.0 vs. 1.0

Key Findings 🧵

1) MANY more arrests in Trump 2.0 than 1.0

2) When arrests spike, % arrested w criminal conviction falls

www.nber.org/papers/w3479...

Reposted by Linda J. Skitka

Veneer of Normalcy, by the awesome @jensorensen.bsky.social

A correct statement that we could extend as: vast waste and loss diffused over a large population, with benefits so concentrated that the beneficiaries could be listed on a page or two.
Selectorate theory - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
This is an obvious and egregious perversion of our immigration enforcement system. Among many.

When public officials entrusted with the power to seize and imprison our family members are not accountable for flagrant abuses of that power, everyone in America loses. Every Conservative, every Liberal.
And here is my story: ‘Absolute hell’: Irishman with valid US work permit held by Ice since September

www.irishtimes.com/world/us/202...
‘Absolute hell’: Irishman with valid US work permit held by Ice since September
Seamus Culleton has been in a detention facility in Texas for nearly five months despite having no criminal record
www.irishtimes.com

Our institutions are the taproot of America’s stability and prosperity.

The Congress’s decision to cease enforcement its constitutional oversight duties, and of its own laws, will come to harm *all* Americans, Conservative and Liberal.
Historian here: “A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody."

— Thomas Paine

Reposted by Ashish Arora

I’ve learned so much from Jake Vigdor’s pioneering work. And I am terribly sad to read his shattering, beautiful tribute to the daughter he just lost.
In Memory: Juliana Alene Vigdor
Celebrating a life that is only over in one sense.
jacobvigdor.substack.com
Historian here: “A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody."

— Thomas Paine
This is what the most distant confirmed galaxy looks like. The light we're receiving was emitted when the Universe was ~15x smaller in linear size than today, and right now it's ~30 billion light-years away from us. The light was emitted when the Universe was <300 million years old. Pretty amazing!
News from the edge of the visible universe:

JWST has confirmed this galaxy, MoM-z14, as the most distant one yet studied. We're seeing it as it was 13.5 billion years ago, 98% of the way back to the beginning of time.

(MoM stands for "miracle or mirage.") 🧪🔭

science.nasa.gov/missions/web...

💯

A long story but a major quibble is that capital tax revenue goes far beyond corporate tax. It’s also dividends, capital gains, corporate property tax (which is most prop tax paid in the US), sales taxes paid on items bought with capital income, and others. Immigrants cause *all* of that by working.

The United States is not a trashy dictatorship.

Our tax dollars, which we give both by force and sense of duty, are exclusively for wise stewardship of the public good. They are not the playthings of old men’s pathetic cravings.

Thank you. Yes I always thought it was odd, even bizarre that the National Academies report starts out with average cost pricing of all public goods. As if the US Embassy in Paris costs more to operate when a Honduran crosses into Texas! As you say, only marginal cost makes sense.
The United States is under the rule of law.

Prosecuting someone who has not broken a law is NOT AT ALL “up to the President”.

It is far past time for our flaccid Congress to act in defense of our Constitution. Its ongoing suspension harms *all* Americans, Conservative and Liberal.
WARREN: This should be an easy one. Can you commit that Trump's Fed nominee will not be sued or investigated by the DOJ if he does not cut interest rates like Trump wants?

BESSENT: That's up to the president

W: You can't say he won't be criminally investigated? That's supposed to be the soft ball!
BREAKING 🚨 🚨 🚨

Trump promises Schumer funding for NY tunnel project if Penn Station and Dulles Airport are renamed after him

The startling offer, which was described by two people familiar with the conversation, was swiftly rejected by Schumer.

www.cnn.com/2026/02/05/p...
Trump promises Schumer funding for NY tunnel project — if Penn Station and Dulles Airport are renamed after him | CNN Politics
President Donald Trump told Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer last month that he was finally prepared to drop his freeze on billions of dollars in funding for a major New York infrastructure projec...
www.cnn.com

Our independent, apolitical Department of Justice has massively benefited Americans for generations.

It is a cornerstone of the rule of law, requiring that criminal prosecution cannot & must not depend upon personal whims and connections.

Its evisceration harms all of us, on the Right and Left.

Reposted by Michael A. Clemens

Trump Says It’s His Right to Use DOJ as His Personal Law Firm

newrepublic.com/post/206192/...
Trump Says It’s His Right to Use DOJ as His Personal Law Firm
But Donald Trump insists that he definitely isn’t doing that right now.
newrepublic.com
WARREN: This should be an easy one. Can you commit that Trump's Fed nominee will not be sued or investigated by the DOJ if he does not cut interest rates like Trump wants?

BESSENT: That's up to the president

W: You can't say he won't be criminally investigated? That's supposed to be the soft ball!

Reposted by Michael A. Clemens

I haven’t been in DC for that long, but long enough to have seen the Post be a great newspaper, which I would proudly refer to as “our local paper”. The speed with which US media is collapsing under authoritarian pressure is one of the most depressing aspects of the last couple of years.

“Last month, my government issued a decree that makes up to half a million undocumented migrants living in Spain eligible for temporary residence permits … We have done this for two reasons.”
Opinion | I’m the Prime Minister of Spain. This Is Why the West Needs Migrants.
www.nytimes.com
Major languages spoken in Toronto (other than English) by neighbourhood

by Alex McPhee
pronghornmaps.com/toronto/

Less-educated labor is not broadly abundant anymore. In much of the world, the *native* working-age population will collapse over the next 20 years.

The new global divide is not 'developing' and 'developed', but people-poor vs. people-rich.

www.iza.org/publications...

See also my new paper commissioned by the International Monetary Fund, which complements Lant's by discussing some topics he doesn't focus on, like specific policy options and the rise of A.I. —>
The International Monetary Fund asked me to review the literature on migration economics to draw lessons for low-income countries.

In a new @iza.org paper, I argue that policy for the 21st century must discard four outdated ideas.

www.iza.org/publications...

🧵 thread—>

Reposted by Valerie Mueller

The native workforces of today's wealthiest countries are rapidly disappearing due to fertility that is low and very unlikely to rise—ever, and certainly not in time to make a difference.

The brilliant Lant Pritchett spells out the implications for migration policy:

www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
Global Labor Mobility between Shrinking and Growing Labor Forces
(Winter 2026) - Falling fertility and improved mortality create a powerful and inexorable demographic arithmetic of ageing in the coming decades around the world, with three patterns. The richest coun...
www.aeaweb.org

“If the person is a U.S. citizen or otherwise lawfully in the United States, that individual will be free to go after the brief encounter.”

Justice Brett Kavanaugh

www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/24p...
American citizen shot by ICE talks about being called a domestic terrorist:

"On Friday I was teaching the young children at the Montessori school... And on Saturday, my own government was calling me a domestic terrorist, and I was in federal detention centers with the bullet holes all over my body"

Reposted by Michael A. Clemens

Here's how you can put your iPhone in lockdown mode: support.apple.com/guide/iphone...

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan

This highly influential White House advisor now states openly: use paramilitary forces to intervene directly in our elections.

This is what the conspiracy theories have been for. This moment.

Conservative and Liberal Americans reject fascism. We know it won't help any 'side'. It is time to act.
Steve Bannon,
"We're gonna have ICE surround the polls...We'll never again allow an election to be stolen."
Steve Bannon,
"We're gonna have ICE surround the polls...We'll never again allow an election to be stolen."

Reposted by Michael A. Clemens

American citizen shot by ICE talks about being called a domestic terrorist:

"On Friday I was teaching the young children at the Montessori school... And on Saturday, my own government was calling me a domestic terrorist, and I was in federal detention centers with the bullet holes all over my body"