Anders Åslund
@andersaslund.bsky.social
Economist & author, specializing in the economics of Eastern Europe, especially Russia & Ukraine.
Per Anders Åslund is a Swedish economist and former Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council. He is also a chairman of the International Advisory Council at the Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE). .. more
Political science
66%
Economics
28%
7. Yet, the precondition for these developments is that Trump fails to turn the US into a truly authoritarian state, which remains an open question.
Desperate budding authoritarians tend to start wars, which Trump threatens to do.
The US is at a tipping point, but which? /8
Desperate budding authoritarians tend to start wars, which Trump threatens to do.
The US is at a tipping point, but which? /8
6. From 1930-1980, the US hardly bred any new billionaires because of high taxes & strict regulation (Brad De Long).
The very rich lose respect & power with their money.
Trump is likely to cost the US right far more than Herbert Hoover did. /7
The very rich lose respect & power with their money.
Trump is likely to cost the US right far more than Herbert Hoover did. /7
5. Trump's demise would augur a new 1933.
From 1933-1981, the democrats controlled the Congress for all but four years. 3 policies are likely to return:
1. Much higher income taxes (91% federal income tzx until 1962).
2. Balanced federal budgets.
3. Better social welfare. /6
From 1933-1981, the democrats controlled the Congress for all but four years. 3 policies are likely to return:
1. Much higher income taxes (91% federal income tzx until 1962).
2. Balanced federal budgets.
3. Better social welfare. /6
4. In important regards, the US is reminiscent of 1929:
A. Wealth & income inequality has never been greater than today - the last peak was 1929.
B. Stocks are very highly valued.
C. Worse: The extreme public debt burden & the large public deficits. /5
A. Wealth & income inequality has never been greater than today - the last peak was 1929.
B. Stocks are very highly valued.
C. Worse: The extreme public debt burden & the large public deficits. /5
3. Will Trump's damaging policies cause a financial crisis before he falls:
Too large public debt;
Even larger public deficit;
Discriminating against foreign investors in the US;
Extreme crony capitalism.
So far Trump has been lucky but for how long? /4
Too large public debt;
Even larger public deficit;
Discriminating against foreign investors in the US;
Extreme crony capitalism.
So far Trump has been lucky but for how long? /4
2. If the GOP is routed in the midterms, one would expect the bizarre Trumpist ideas to be thrown out & replaced with Reaganism:
Free trade;
Free markets;
Rule of law & end of corruption;
Sensibly regulated immigration;
Renewal of the Western alliance;
Freedom of speech;
Etc. /3
Free trade;
Free markets;
Rule of law & end of corruption;
Sensibly regulated immigration;
Renewal of the Western alliance;
Freedom of speech;
Etc. /3
. The only plausible brake on Trump's rule is mid-term elections to Congress in November 2026. Suddenly, it looks as if the GOP could lose both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Trump's aggravated madness makes this look not only possible but likely. /2
As Trump's senility & madness get worse & the Epstein scandal more evident & Trump's public support declining, I have suddenly started hoping that the US may avoid a fascist dictatorship. How could this happen & what would happen? /1