Ugo Panizza
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upanizza.bsky.social
Ugo Panizza
@upanizza.bsky.social

Professor & Pictet Chair @GVAGrad, VP @cepr_org & Director ICMB. Before @UNCTAD @the_IDB @AUB_Lebanon @unito 2 daughters. FVCG โ›ท๐Ÿ Twitter handle @upanizza
www.upanizza.com

Ugo Panizza is an Italian and Swiss economist. He is a professor of International Economics, department head, and Pictet Chair in Finance and Development at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva. He is a vice-president of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), the director of the International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies, the editor in chief of Oxford Open Economics and International Development Policy, and the deputy director of the Centre for Finance and Development. He is a members of the Scientific Committees of the Fondazione Luigi Einaudi (Torino) and Long-term Investors@UniTo. .. more

Economics 80%
Business 10%

Reposted by Ugo Panizza

How does the quality of public investment affect sovereign risk? Join the next Kiel-@cepr.org Research Seminar w/ @upanizza.bsky.social to find out! He presents a new index measuring the quality of public investment covering 120 economies over 2000โ€“2021
Register ๐Ÿ‘‰ www.kielinstitut.de/institute/ev...

Reposted by Ugo Panizza

Basel

Reposted by Ugo Panizza

7/
๐Ÿงฉ In sum:
Sovereign green bonds = big promise, small payoff.
The sovereign greenium exists โ€” but remains a tiny price effect attached to a big idea.

ideas.repec.org/p/gii/giihei...

#GreenFinance #SustainableFinance #SovereignDebt #ClimatePolicy #EconTwitter
The Sovereign Greenium: Big Promise but Small Price Effect
This paper investigates the existence, magnitude and drivers of the sovereign greenium: the yield discount on sovereign and quasi-sovereign green bonds relative to conventional bonds. Using a dataset
ideas.repec.org

6/
Thereโ€™s also a credibility problem:

๐Ÿ” None of the >300 sovereign green bond prospectuses we reviewed make environmental promises legally binding.

No clauses, no enforcement, no default events if targets are missed.

5/
So what drives the (tiny) greenium?
We find it increases when:
๐ŸŒก๏ธ climate transition risks are salient
๐ŸŒ countries are more vulnerable to climate change

4/

The median discount on Germanyโ€™s green bonds saves about $16 million per year โ€” out of an $80 billion portfolio.

Even converting the entire German debt stock to โ€œgreenโ€ would cut interest costs by <2%.

3/
๐Ÿ’ก Result: The greenium exists, but it is small.
โžก๏ธ ~2 basis points in advanced economies
โžก๏ธ ~13 basis points in emerging markets

Statistically significant, but economically tiny.

2/
In a new paper, we study 332 matched pairs of green and conventional sovereign and quasi sovereign bonds issued between 2014โ€“2023.
We quantify the greenium: the yield discount investors accept for going green.
The paper is here: ideas.repec.org/p/gii/giihei...
The Sovereign Greenium: Big Promise but Small Price Effect
This paper investigates the existence, magnitude and drivers of the sovereign greenium: the yield discount on sovereign and quasi-sovereign green bonds relative to conventional bonds. Using a dataset
ideas.repec.org

1/
Over the past decade, sovereign green bonds have gone from curiosity to commonplace. ๐ŸŒ๐Ÿ’ถ
Since Polandโ€™s 2016 debut, >30 governments have issued debt labelled as โ€œgreen.โ€ But do these bonds actually lower borrowing costs?

@gvagrad.bsky.social @gvagrad-hcgs.bsky.social

Prof. @upanizza.bsky.social co-wrote the paper w/ Niccolรฒ Rescia, Christoph Trebesch, Ka Lok Wong, Mark Manger & David Mihalyi,
introducing the African Debt Database - a new, comprehensive dataset that traces both domestic and external debt instruments at a granular level.
๐Ÿ‘‰ cepr.org/publications...
DP20747 Africa's Domestic Debt Boom: Evidence from the African Debt Database
This paper introduces the African Debt Database (ADD) - a new, comprehensive dataset that traces both domestic and external debt instruments at a granular level. The main innovation is a detailed mapping of Africaโ€™s domestic debt markets, drawing on rich, new data extracted from government auction reports and bond prospectuses. The database covers over 50,000 individual government loans and securities issued by 54 African countries between 2000 and 2024, amounting to a total of USD 6.3 trillion in debt. For each instrument, it provides harmonized micro-level information on currency, maturity, interest rates, instrument type, and creditor. The data reveal the growing dominance of domestic debt in Africa โ€” albeit with substantial cross-country variation. Four stylized facts stand out: (i) the rapid expansion of domestic debt markets, especially in middle-income countries; (ii) the wide dispersion in borrowing costs and real interest rates; (iii) large cross-country differences in maturity structures and associated rollover risks; and (iv) a rising debt-service burden, particularly due to international bonds. Generally, this project shows that debt transparency is both feasible and valuable, even in data-scarce environments.
cepr.org

Reposted by Ugo Panizza

Reposted by Ugo Panizza

Reposted by Ugo Panizza

Reposted by Ugo Panizza