Patrick S. Forscher

@psforscher.bsky.social

1.6K followers 280 following 420 posts

Senior Behavioral Scientist at Busara, a non-profit that does behavioral science to advance development. Strong interest in applied meta-research. https://patrickforscher.com/

Videos

Psychology 39%

Political science 11%

Posts Replies Media Videos

Patrick S. Forscher @psforscher.bsky.social · 7d

Small sample size, but check out the 8/27 = 30% replication success rate in marketing 👀

Patrick S. Forscher @psforscher.bsky.social · 7d

The studies were not selected at random so interpretation is tricky but I think the differences in replication rates have something to do with the incentives created by social psych's historically close connection with popular science media

ideas.repec.org/p/osf/metaar...

2/

Patrick S. Forscher @psforscher.bsky.social · 7d

Based on the amazing FReD replication explorer, I finally have some evidence for the claim that the observed replication rate is lower in social than in disciplines like cognitive psychology

forrt.org/FReD-apps/ex...

1/

Reposted by Ian Hussey, Patrick S. Forscher, Jesper Wulff

Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 7d

Wow this scoring chaos seems to be an extreme case of what I say about many ad hoc analyses: no derivation of method from a clear scientific theory, no assessment of statistical properties, and decades pass before someone notices. This happens in biology too, so let’s not pick on psychology only

Tom Stafford @tomstafford.mastodon.online.ap.brid.gy · 8d

Read my latest post for reflections on reproducibility, research quality and a summary of a great new study which shows how NOT to do it

https://open.substack.com/pub/tomstafford/p/gambling-with-research-quality

Gambling with research quality

How you get 244 different ways to measure performance on the same test of decision making. And what it means for the reliability of behavioural science

tomstafford.substack.com

Reposted by Brian A. Nosek, Ingo Rohlfing, Patrick S. Forscher

Lukas Röseler @aufdroeseler.bsky.social · 7d

The FORRT Replication Database has received a massive overhaul (FReD 2.0): We double-coded and validated all data from scratch and extended it in the course of a one-year-partnership with the @cos.io. We just switched to a faster interface thanks to @lukaswallrich.bsky.social’s wizardry.

Patrick S. Forscher @psforscher.bsky.social · 11d

Not sure what’s going on in cancer biology because I don’t know the field well but I’d wager there’s an interesting story there that links to history and incentives in some way

Patrick S. Forscher @psforscher.bsky.social · 11d

One thing that makes interpretation tricky is that the studies that make their way into replication projects are not sampled at random so it’s hard to draw firm conclusions about fields, but when you combine the replication findings with historical analysis I feel more confident

Patrick S. Forscher @psforscher.bsky.social · 11d

Even in the original replicability project in psychology, which covered mostly social & cognitive psychology, social psychology performed worse than cognitive psych

Patrick S. Forscher @psforscher.bsky.social · 11d

Replicability is notably higher in some disciplines; see ex this on personality psychology pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30950321/

How Replicable Are Links Between Personality Traits and Consequential Life Outcomes? The Life Outcomes of Personality Replication Project - PubMed

The Big Five personality traits have been linked to dozens of life outcomes. However, metascientific research has raised questions about the replicability of behavioral science. The Life Outcomes of Personality Replication (LOOPR) Project was therefore conducted to estimate the replicability of the …

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Reposted by Rebecca Sear, Alex Mesoudi, Patrick S. Forscher , and 1 more Rebecca Sear, Alex Mesoudi, Patrick S. Forscher, Graeme Warren

Sheina Lew-Levy @sheinalew.bsky.social · 11d

🚨 New Paper Alert!

We investigated the developmental trajectories of intra-ethnic and inter-ethnic social norm acquisition among BaYaka and Bandongo in northern Rep. Congo, a community where inter-ethnic cooperation is common. We found that...

journals.plos.org/plosone/arti...

The social learning and development of intra- and inter-ethnic sharing norms in the Congo Basin

Compared to other species, the extent of human cooperation is unparalleled. Such cooperation is coordinated between community members via social norms. Developmental research has demonstrated that ver...

journals.plos.org

Reposted by Patrick S. Forscher

samuel mehr @mehr.nz · 17d

I'm trying out the Vivaldi browser - a descendant of Opera which was my absolute favourite browser in the 90s, and so far it's pretty cool!

so far it's snappy and customizable, no AI slop in sight, blocks trackers etc, and unyokes me from Google and Apple. freeware run by Norwegians

Download Vivaldi | Vivaldi Browser

Download the latest version of the Vivaldi browser for Windows, Mac or Linux. Browse your way with a fully customisable browser packed with advanced features.

vivaldi.com

Reposted by Lisa W. Fazio, Stephan Lewandowsky, Sander van der Linden , and 9 more Lisa W. Fazio, Stephan Lewandowsky, Sander van der Linden, Garry Peterson, Scott L. Greer, Serge Guimond, Melanie C. Green, Patrick S. Forscher, Victor Galaz, Cailin O’Connor, Kate Starbird, Johannes Breuer

Kai Kupferschmidt @kakape.bsky.social · 21d

One of the issues that has come up again and again in my reporting on misinformation and social media is the massive influence social media companies have on research in the field.

Last night a preprint dropped that tries to get at this with some numbers. My piece in @science.org (and 🧪🧵 coming):

Nearly a third of social media research has undisclosed ties to industry, preprint claims

Industry-linked studies were also more likely to focus on particular topics, suggesting these ties may be skewing the field

www.science.org

Patrick S. Forscher @psforscher.bsky.social · 21d

I've accepted a new role at @busaracenter.bsky.social: Senior Behavioral Scientist.

In this role I will safeguard the quality of our work, identify places for behavioral science to play a role in development, and lead strategic partnerships.

See my updated personal website: patrickforscher.com

Patrick S. Forscher

I'm trying to make behavioral science more robust, useful, and fair

patrickforscher.com

Patrick S. Forscher @psforscher.bsky.social · 25d

I mean I think there is a reason the replication crisis was so bad in social psychology and that reason very likely has something to do with incentives

osf.io/6hevp

OSF

osf.io

Reposted by Andrew K Przybylski, Kris Inwood, Patrick S. Forscher , and 1 more Andrew K Przybylski, Kris Inwood, Patrick S. Forscher, Dean Eckles

Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 25d

I started reading up on the whole "loneliness pandemic" narrative because this seems like a literature where the age-period-cohort problem may be relevant (or maybe it isn't?).

Here's data from Australia (HILDA), average agreement with the statement "I often feel very lonely" (SD of ca. 1.8).>

Average agreement with the statement "I often feel very lonely" plotted over time

Reposted by Brigitte Nerlich, Brendan Nyhan, Gavin A. Schmidt , and 7 more Brigitte Nerlich, Brendan Nyhan, Gavin A. Schmidt, Juan Cole, Patrick S. Forscher, Alexandra Filindra, Christina Pagel, Aviel Roshwald, Olúfẹ́mi Táíwò, Dana Howard

Jeremy Faust, MD @jeremyfaust.bsky.social · 25d

We have the CDC-funded Hepatitis Vaccine trial in Guinea-Bissau protocol.

It’s worse than you thought.

Check it out, first in Inside Medicine…

with @pauloffit.bsky.social David Boulware and others.

insidemedicine.substack.com/p/scoop-the-...

Scoop: The leaked protocol of the CDC-funded Hepatitis B vaccine trial in Guinea-Bissau. “This is another Tuskegee.”

The protocol reveals that the trial will withhold the Hepatitis B birth dose from thousands—without placebos, without universal maternal screening, and with endpoints critics call indefensible.

insidemedicine.substack.com

Patrick S. Forscher @psforscher.bsky.social · 27d

Can’t recommend it enough

Reposted by Patrick S. Forscher

Samperson @samperson.bsky.social · 28d

greatest steam update of all time, because of one unnecessary detail

Reposted by Patrick S. Forscher

Hu Chuan-Peng @hcp4715.bsky.social · Jan 9

We @chineseopensci.bsky.social wrote a brief Chinese introduction for this initiative: mp.weixin.qq.com/s/j8oTyoGtJ8...

开放数据 | WARN-D机器学习比赛启动，寻找抑郁症预测最佳模型

WARN-D 项目开放抑郁症研究数据，诚邀各界团队参与机器学习比赛，寻找最具预测能力和临床价值的模型

mp.weixin.qq.com

Brian Coulter @philabcoulter.bsky.social · Jan 9

Best TikTok thing going is the two dudes trying food from every country without leaving NYC. If you haven’t seen them yet, it’s incredible. My favorite so far is last week’s. Legit got me emotional.

Reposted by Patrick S. Forscher, Wolfgang Huber

Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · Jan 8

Explainers & tutorials are a great way to criticize current practices with a positive twist. Tailoring them to a specific substantive (!) subfield can greatly increase uptake. Forget about novelty; if some statistican said sth in the 70s but no one was around to hear it, say it again.>

Reposted by Patrick S. Forscher

John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · Jan 7

In 2020, Facebook scientists worked to gauge the effect of deactivating one's account.

They found that people who stopped using FB for a week reported better mental health.

Rather than publishing/doing more research, Meta called off the research.

www.reuters.com/sustainabili...

Meta buried 'causal' evidence of social media harm, US court filings allege

Rather than publishing the findings or pursuing additional research, Meta called off further work.

www.reuters.com

Reposted by Patrick S. Forscher

John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · Jan 7

Broadband internet access is really bad for adolescents' mental health.

Why?

"Broadband internet access [is] associated with increases in cyberbullying & body dissatisfaction among adolescent girls and a reduction in the likelihood that adolescent boys reported getting an adequate amount of sleep"

Reposted by Martin Lang, Magnus Johansson, Patrick S. Forscher , and 3 more Martin Lang, Magnus Johansson, Patrick S. Forscher, Anthony J. Evans, Larry W. Hunter, Jill A. Jacobson

Eiko Fried @eikofried.bsky.social · Jan 7

After 5 years of data collection, our WARN-D machine learning competition to forecast depression onset is now LIVE! We hope many of you will participate—we have incredibly rich data.

If you share a single thing of my lab this year, please make it this competition.

eiko-fried.com/warn-d-machi...

WARN-D machine learning competition is live » Eiko Fried

If you share one single thing of our team in 2026—on social media or per email with your colleagues—please let it be this machine learning competition. It was half a decade of work to get here, especi...

eiko-fried.com

Reposted by Patrick S. Forscher

Nicola Rennie @nrennie.bsky.social · Jan 5

I saw this chart in the wild a few days ago and it's been on my mind because the longer I look at it, the more confused I become by it. 📊

I'm fairly sure it's AI generated for a few reasons...

A #DataViz thread 🧵

Bar chart of percentage of population aged 25-64 that can't speak a foreign language. UK is at the top. The chart design is confusing to say the least.

Reposted by Rebecca Sear, Patrick S. Forscher

Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · Dec 22

One of the most important books I've read this year, from
@adambecker.bsky.social.

It's a devastating read at times—you'll find yourself shouting at the book "how can they be that goddamn crazy???!!!"

But it's critical to realize that they are.

Justin Hendrix @justinhendrix.bsky.social · Dec 22

12. @adambecker.bsky.social is a science journalist and author of MORE EVERYTHING FOREVER: AI Overlords, Space Empires, and Silicon Valley’s Crusade to Control the Fate of Humanity, a book that chronicles the stew of nonsense that informs and motivates many of tech’s leaders.

Adam Becker Takes Aim at Silicon Valley Nonsense | TechPolicy.Press

In a new book, the science journalist Adam Becker skewers the more outlandish ideas and motivations in the tech industry.

www.techpolicy.press

Elizabeth Jacobs, PhD @elizabethjacobs.bsky.social · Dec 20

It is utterly catastrophic that RFK Jr. plans to end CDC recommendations for most childhood vaccines.

It’s a betrayal of science, ethics, compassion, and the people of the United States.

And it was also a specific goal of Project 2025 (page 254).

Screenshot from project 2025 that says By statute or regulation, CDC guidance must be prohibited from taking on a prescriptive character. For example, never again should CDC officials be allowed to say in their official capacity that school children "should be" masked or vaccinated (through a schedule or otherwise) or prohibited from learning in a school building.
Such decisions should be left to parents and medical providers. We have learned that when CDC says what people "should" do, it readily becomes a "must" backed by severe punishments, including criminal penalties. CDC should report on the risks and effectiveness of all infectious disease-mitigation measures dispassionately and leave the "should" and "must" policy calls to politically accountable parties.
Conflicts of Interest. There was a time when the CDC could not take money

Reposted by Dorothy Bishop, Brady T. West, Richard McElreath , and 4 more Dorothy Bishop, Brady T. West, Richard McElreath, Andrew K Przybylski, Patrick S. Forscher, Andrew Livingstone, Jan R. Boehnke

rogier kievit @rogierk.bsky.social · Dec 18

I've used Lavaan almost every (work)day for 15 years, but this open source labour of love has never received proper institutional support. I'm delighted to be a small part of an 1.5M OpenScienceNL award, led by Jorgensen, to completely revamp and futureproof Lavaan www.openscience.nl/en/news/45-p...

Reposted by Kevin Carey, Sebastian Karcher, Dorothy Bishop , and 35 more Kevin Carey, Sebastian Karcher, Dorothy Bishop, Caroline Krafft, Catherine J. Frieman, Lisa W. Fazio, Arthur Geßler, Alan Richardson, Christina Ho, Julia Lynch, David C. Kimball, Janet Murray, Larry W. Hunter, Caroline Fohlin, Smith, Karen Benjamin Guzzo, Gavin A. Schmidt, Ben Tonra, Steve Peers, Richard M. Carpiano, Dana Howard, Scott L. Greer, Clark Gray, Colin F. Camerer, Lesley A. Hall, Patrick S. Forscher, Julie Rovner, Devon Greyson, Rita Rubin, Nicole Guenther Discenza, Richard S.J. Tol, David W. Kerstetter, Simon Chapman, Lisa Diedrich, Efrén O. Pérez, Philip N. Cohen, Raffaella Ravinetto, Joshua S. Weitz

Reposted by Patrick S. Forscher

Daniel Lakens @lakens.bsky.social · Dec 17

Very happy to have received a replication grant from NWO! We will be reproducing power analyses of large scale replication projects, to learn how to improve power analyses, and increase quality control in large team Science projects! www.openscience.nl/en/news/27-s...

27 studies re-examined | Open Science NL

Open Science NL has awarded funding to 27 applicants to replicate earlier studies. They will reanalyse original data, repeat experiments, and replicate studies with slight variations to the original…

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