Thomas Saalfeld
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thomas-saalfeld.bsky.social
Thomas Saalfeld
@thomas-saalfeld.bsky.social
280 followers 420 following 37 posts

Professor of Political Science and Vice President for Research, University of Bamberg. Posting exclusively in a personal capacity. Repostings do not always indicate agreement.

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Political science 78%
Business 9%
Posts Replies Media Videos

Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld

maltelehming.bsky.social
Malte Lehming @maltelehming.bsky.social · 6d
Trump greift nach den Wählerverzeichnissen. www.tagesspiegel.de/internationa...
Von Minneapolis zu den Midterms : Um illegale Migranten geht es Trump nur vordergründig
Was passiert, wenn ICE-Kräfte vor Wahllokalen auftauchen? Wird Trump bei Protesten das Militär einsetzen? Auf solche Szenarien bereiten sich Demokraten in den USA immer intensiver vor.
www.tagesspiegel.de

Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld

wahlrecht.de
Wahlrecht.de @wahlrecht.de · 6d
Sonntagsfrage zur Bundestagswahl • INSA/BILD: CDU/CSU 26 % | AfD 26 % | SPD 15,5 % | GRÜNE 11,5 % | DIE LINKE 10 % | BSW 4 % | FDP 3 % | Sonstige 4 %
➤ Übersicht: wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
➤ Verlauf: wahlrecht.de/umfragen/ins...
Säulendiagramm der Sonntagsfrage zur Bundestagswahl von INSA für BILD

Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld

wahlrecht.de
Wahlrecht.de @wahlrecht.de · 8d
Sonntagsfrage zur Landtagswahl in Hessen • Infratest dimap / Hessischer Rundfunk: CDU 32 % | AfD 20 % | SPD 16 % | GRÜNE 14 % | DIE LINKE 6 % | FDP 3 % | Sonstige 9 %
➤ Verlauf: wahlrecht.de/umfragen/lan...
🗓️ Nächste Landtagswahl: vsl. Herbst 2028 #ltwhe
Säulendiagramm der Sonntagsfrage zur Landtagswahl in Hessen von Infratest dimap für den Hessischen Rundfunk

Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld

museeorsay.bsky.social
Musée d'Orsay @museeorsay.bsky.social · 13d
Un art total • Dessins de la Sécession viennoise
Jusqu'au 17 mai
👉 https://bit.ly/4qItJO0

Focus sur les collections d'Orsay consacré aux dessins de la Sécession viennoise. Les œuvres sélectionnées présentent les principes d'une architecture novatrice, emblématique du modernisme viennois.
Dessin architectural détaillé d'un bâtiment néoclassique avec de hautes colonnes et statues. Des escaliers mènent à l'entrée entourée de végétation. À droite, des figures humaines et des arbres complètent la scène.

Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld

davidfarrell-ucd.bsky.social
Prof David Farrell, UCD @davidfarrell-ucd.bsky.social · 13d
I guess it was inevitable, but sad to see him reduced to this.
hopenothate.org.uk HOPE not hate @hopenothate.org.uk · 13d
Matthew Goodwin choosing this moment to stand in Gorton & Denton, tells you exactly what he’s about.

He can smell the media attention, like a bloodhound.

Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld

ecpr.bsky.social
European Consortium for Political Research @ecpr.bsky.social · 13d
📣 Registration now open #ECPG26
🌸 European Conference on Politics and Gender @ecprgender.bsky.social
📆 15 – 17 Jun
⏰ Register by 30 Mar

The conference champions methodological diversity and promotes plurality in analytical perspectives.

💰 Funding available. Apply by 30 Jan buff.ly/H52lG74
Register now
European Conference on Politics and Gender, Newcastle University, 15 – 17 June 2026
buff.ly

Reposted by Will Jennings, Steve Peers, Thomas Saalfeld , and 2 more

Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld

electionmaps.uk
Election Maps UK @electionmaps.uk · 13d
This would result in a Parliament with 322 right-of-centre MPs and 320 left-of-centre MPs...

Reposted by Scott L. Greer, Thomas Saalfeld, Lucy Barnes

tabouchadi.bsky.social
Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · Dec 31
My wish for 2026 is that politicians and political analysts realize that public opinion is endogenous to elite behavior, that polling single issues tells us nothing about electorally successful strategies, that politics means shaping public opinion and that popularism is the death of progressivism.

Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld

docgaby.bsky.social
DocGaby @docgaby.bsky.social · Dec 22
#Reminder
„Die Demokratie ist keine Frage der Zweckmäßigkeit, sondern der Sittlichkeit.“

Willy Brandt

"Demokratie ist ein grundsätzlicher moralischer Auftrag, das Bekenntnis zu einer gerechten Gesellschaftsordnung, die die Freiheit und Gleichheit aller Menschen achtet."
„Keine Frage der Zweckmäßigkeit“ - Demokratiegeschichten
Was steckt hinter dem Demokratiezitat „Die Demokratie ist uns keine Frage der Zweckmäßigkeit, sondern der Sittlichkeit“ von Willy Brandt?
www.demokratiegeschichten.de

Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld

dawum.de
Wahlumfragen • dawum.de @dawum.de · Nov 23
#Parteizustimmungsindex (#PZI): CDU/CSU: 28,3%, AfD: 23,4%, SPD: 15%, Grüne: 11,9%, Linke: 9,2%, BSW: 3,6%, FDP: 3,3% ➤ dawum.de#PZI | Der PZI setzt sich zusammen aus den nach Einwohnern gewichteten Umfragewerten für die Länder und aus dem zum Bundestag.

Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld

electionmaps.uk
Election Maps UK @electionmaps.uk · Nov 23
Nowcast Update - Green's vote share surpasses Lib Dems, as Labour hits new low.

RFM: 350 (+345), 30.2% (50 Maj.)
LAB: 87 (-324), 18.8%
LDM: 75 (+3), 13.0%
SNP: 44 (+35), 2.7%
CON: 38 (-83), 17.6%
GRN: 23 (+19), 13.5%
PLC: 7 (+3), 1.1%
Oth: 7 (+2), 3.1%

electionmaps.uk/nowcast

Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld

conunitucl.bsky.social
UCL Constitution Unit @conunitucl.bsky.social · Nov 20
ON THE BLOG: Assessing the House of Commons Backbench Business Committee 15 years on

Unit Director Meg Russell and Hannah Kelly argue changes are needed to get back to the Wright Committee’s vision of it helping facilitate a more responsive and independent House of Commons.
Assessing the House of Commons Backbench Business Committee 15 years on
Unit Director Meg Russell and Hannah Kelly argue changes are needed to get back to the Wright Committee’s vision of it helping facilitate a more responsive and independent House of Commons.
constitution-unit.com

Reposted by Daniel Ziblatt, Lisa W. Fazio, Ben H. Ansell , and 14 more

jakemgrumbach.bsky.social
Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · Nov 19
The Eric Schickler essay in Larry Bartel's symposium on "What Trump Has Taught Us About Political Science" is one of the most insightful pieces I've read in 2025.

US institutions turned out to be weak, and we have to rethink conventional wisdom.

open access: academic.oup.com/psq/advance-...

Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld

minorityrightseu.bsky.social
Minority Rights @minorityrightseu.bsky.social · Nov 19
Nearly 1 in 2 Muslims in the EU (47%) report they’ve experienced racism or discrimination in the past 5 years. 

Most victims are women wearing religious clothing, job‑seekers, and those born in the EU.

This report shows a sharp rise since 2016.

Read more: fra.europa.eu/en/publicati...
Being Muslim in the EU - Experiences of Muslims
fra.europa.eu

Reposted by Will Jennings, Thomas Saalfeld

gelliottmorris.com
G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · Nov 19
The Marist poll out today (Dems +14 in the U.S. House vote) is a huge outlier, but there has been clear movement to the left over the last month. The Democrats are up 4.4 in our average of generic ballot polls today, vs D+2.8 in mid-October.
fiftyplusone.news/polls/generi...

Reposted by Steffen Mau, Thomas Saalfeld, Ralf Michaels , and 3 more

heikekluever.bsky.social
Heike Klüver @heikekluever.bsky.social · Nov 18
📣 New op-ed in Süddeutsche Zeitung: What the data say about the “Brandmauer”

I summarize key findings from a study with @anninahermes.bsky.social across 57 democracies

➡️ Far-right parties don’t get weaker in government, they get stronger (~6 points by the next election)

tinyurl.com/4j6jaud2
Demokratie: Wenn die Rechte mitregiert, wird sie nicht geschwächt – im Gegenteil
Eine Untersuchung von 57 Ländern zeigt: Wenn die Rechte in Verantwortung kommt, gewinnt sie dazu. Daraus lässt sich für Deutschland lernen.
www.sueddeutsche.de

thomas-saalfeld.bsky.social
Thomas Saalfeld @thomas-saalfeld.bsky.social · Nov 16
hopenothate.org.uk/reform-reque...
Who supports Reform UK and why? | Fed Up and rolling the dice
Our study of over 11,000 Reform UK voters is the largest and most extensive study into the party undertaken to date. We find that Reform UK is made of a coalition of voters, many with quite different ...
hopenothate.org.uk

Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld

bagss-bamberg.bsky.social
Bamberg Graduate School of Social Sciences @bagss-bamberg.bsky.social · Nov 10
Our doctoral member @reppert-polsci.bsky.social has successfully completed his dissertation. In his Graduation Interview, he gives insights into the topic and findings of his dissertation, talks about his time at the BAGSS, and shares the next step in his career:

www.uni-bamberg.de/en/bagss/mag...
Thorsten Reppert Interview - BAMBERG GRADUATE SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES
www.uni-bamberg.de

Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld

rsenninger.bsky.social
Roman Senninger @rsenninger.bsky.social · Nov 8
In an ongoing project, we ask which countries citizens prefer as benchmarks for policy decisions.

Pilot data from the UK show that Denmark is ranked as one of the most preferred reference countries, particularly in relation to migration policy.

Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld, Martin Kreidl, Claudia Landwehr

heikekluever.bsky.social
Heike Klüver @heikekluever.bsky.social · Nov 7
More and more young people are turning to the far right. Why and what can we do about it?

Join our #COVIDEU Workshop on Nov 21 (2–5 PM) to discuss causes and counter-strategies.

🚀 Hosted by @humboldt-govlab.bsky.social
💡 Funded by @volkswagenstiftung.de
👉 Register: tinyurl.com/bdenyfnw

thomas-saalfeld.bsky.social
Thomas Saalfeld @thomas-saalfeld.bsky.social · Nov 5
bbc.com/news/article...
What a UK government led by Reform would really look like
What the party's first six months at the helm at local level shows about how they govern - and whether they can keep their promises
bbc.com

thomas-saalfeld.bsky.social
Thomas Saalfeld @thomas-saalfeld.bsky.social · Nov 4
Verfassungsblog

thomas-saalfeld.bsky.social
Thomas Saalfeld @thomas-saalfeld.bsky.social · Nov 4
ettlo.r.sp1-brevo.net/mk/mr/sh/1t6...
Counting on You to Count on Us
ettlo.r.sp1-brevo.net

thomas-saalfeld.bsky.social
Thomas Saalfeld @thomas-saalfeld.bsky.social · Nov 2
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Dutch voters have been seduced by positivity – liberals elsewhere, take note | Simon van Teutem
By selling hope alongside progressive patriotism, the centrist D66 party widened its appeal and beat the far right, says Dutch journalist Simon van Teutem
www.theguardian.com

thomas-saalfeld.bsky.social
Thomas Saalfeld @thomas-saalfeld.bsky.social · Oct 25
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Local election wipeout would see off Starmer, MPs say after Caerphilly rout
Crushing defeat in Welsh byelection triggers renewed outpouring of anger and concern within Labour
www.theguardian.com

Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld

electionmaps.uk
Election Maps UK @electionmaps.uk · Oct 24
Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 32% (=)
CON: 17% (=)
LAB: 16% (+1)
GRN: 15% (=)
LDM: 12% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @findoutnow.bsky.social, 22 Oct.
Changes w/ 15 Oct.

Reposted by Claudia Landwehr

thomas-saalfeld.bsky.social
Thomas Saalfeld @thomas-saalfeld.bsky.social · Oct 3
R. I. P., Claus Offe, one of the great German social scientists of the post-war era. Here is the tribute of the Hertie School Berlin:
www.hertie-school.org/en/news/deta...
The Hertie School community mourns the passing of Professor Claus Offe
Offe was a distinguished political sociologist and a founding member of the Hertie School.
www.hertie-school.org

thomas-saalfeld.bsky.social
Thomas Saalfeld @thomas-saalfeld.bsky.social · Sep 26
Very sadly, John Groom passed away a week ago. My heart goes out to Antoinette, Anna and Helen.

www.bisa.ac.uk/news/memoria...
In memoriam: Professor A J R (‘John’) Groom
It is with sadness that we bring the news that former BISA Chair, Professor Groom has passed away.
www.bisa.ac.uk

Reposted by Michael E. Mann, Kim L. Scheppele, Jan W. Mueller , and 38 more

robertscotthorton.bsky.social
Scott Horton @robertscotthorton.bsky.social · Sep 6
BREAKING: ICE is sending Russian dissidents back to Russia. When the dissidents arrived in Russia, the Russian authorities were given documents relating to their asylum applications in the US which under US law are confidential. This seems to be part of a secret agreement between Trump and Putin.
‘I escaped a Russian prison — only to end up in an American jail’
Dozens of Russian dissidents have been expelled from the US and forcibly returned to Russia with the co-operation of immigration authorities
www.thetimes.com