Thomas Saalfeld
@thomas-saalfeld.bsky.social
Professor of Political Science and Vice President for Research, University of Bamberg. Posting exclusively in a personal capacity. Repostings do not always indicate agreement.
Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld
Sonntagsfrage zur Bundestagswahl • INSA/BILD: CDU/CSU 26 % | AfD 26 % | SPD 15,5 % | GRÜNE 11,5 % | DIE LINKE 10 % | BSW 4 % | FDP 3 % | Sonstige 4 %
➤ Übersicht: wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
➤ Verlauf: wahlrecht.de/umfragen/ins...
➤ Übersicht: wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
➤ Verlauf: wahlrecht.de/umfragen/ins...
February 3, 2026 at 7:37 AM
Sonntagsfrage zur Bundestagswahl • INSA/BILD: CDU/CSU 26 % | AfD 26 % | SPD 15,5 % | GRÜNE 11,5 % | DIE LINKE 10 % | BSW 4 % | FDP 3 % | Sonstige 4 %
➤ Übersicht: wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
➤ Verlauf: wahlrecht.de/umfragen/ins...
➤ Übersicht: wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
➤ Verlauf: wahlrecht.de/umfragen/ins...
Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld
Trump greift nach den Wählerverzeichnissen. www.tagesspiegel.de/internationa...
Von Minneapolis zu den Midterms : Um illegale Migranten geht es Trump nur vordergründig
Was passiert, wenn ICE-Kräfte vor Wahllokalen auftauchen? Wird Trump bei Protesten das Militär einsetzen? Auf solche Szenarien bereiten sich Demokraten in den USA immer intensiver vor.
www.tagesspiegel.de
February 3, 2026 at 7:59 AM
Trump greift nach den Wählerverzeichnissen. www.tagesspiegel.de/internationa...
Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld
Sonntagsfrage zur Landtagswahl in Hessen • Infratest dimap / Hessischer Rundfunk: CDU 32 % | AfD 20 % | SPD 16 % | GRÜNE 14 % | DIE LINKE 6 % | FDP 3 % | Sonstige 9 %
➤ Verlauf: wahlrecht.de/umfragen/lan...
🗓️ Nächste Landtagswahl: vsl. Herbst 2028 #ltwhe
➤ Verlauf: wahlrecht.de/umfragen/lan...
🗓️ Nächste Landtagswahl: vsl. Herbst 2028 #ltwhe
February 2, 2026 at 7:12 AM
Sonntagsfrage zur Landtagswahl in Hessen • Infratest dimap / Hessischer Rundfunk: CDU 32 % | AfD 20 % | SPD 16 % | GRÜNE 14 % | DIE LINKE 6 % | FDP 3 % | Sonstige 9 %
➤ Verlauf: wahlrecht.de/umfragen/lan...
🗓️ Nächste Landtagswahl: vsl. Herbst 2028 #ltwhe
➤ Verlauf: wahlrecht.de/umfragen/lan...
🗓️ Nächste Landtagswahl: vsl. Herbst 2028 #ltwhe
Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld
Un art total • Dessins de la Sécession viennoise
Jusqu'au 17 mai
👉 https://bit.ly/4qItJO0
Focus sur les collections d'Orsay consacré aux dessins de la Sécession viennoise. Les œuvres sélectionnées présentent les principes d'une architecture novatrice, emblématique du modernisme viennois.
Jusqu'au 17 mai
👉 https://bit.ly/4qItJO0
Focus sur les collections d'Orsay consacré aux dessins de la Sécession viennoise. Les œuvres sélectionnées présentent les principes d'une architecture novatrice, emblématique du modernisme viennois.
January 27, 2026 at 5:00 PM
Un art total • Dessins de la Sécession viennoise
Jusqu'au 17 mai
👉 https://bit.ly/4qItJO0
Focus sur les collections d'Orsay consacré aux dessins de la Sécession viennoise. Les œuvres sélectionnées présentent les principes d'une architecture novatrice, emblématique du modernisme viennois.
Jusqu'au 17 mai
👉 https://bit.ly/4qItJO0
Focus sur les collections d'Orsay consacré aux dessins de la Sécession viennoise. Les œuvres sélectionnées présentent les principes d'une architecture novatrice, emblématique du modernisme viennois.
Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld
📣 Registration now open #ECPG26
🌸 European Conference on Politics and Gender @ecprgender.bsky.social
📆 15 – 17 Jun
⏰ Register by 30 Mar
The conference champions methodological diversity and promotes plurality in analytical perspectives.
💰 Funding available. Apply by 30 Jan buff.ly/H52lG74
🌸 European Conference on Politics and Gender @ecprgender.bsky.social
📆 15 – 17 Jun
⏰ Register by 30 Mar
The conference champions methodological diversity and promotes plurality in analytical perspectives.
💰 Funding available. Apply by 30 Jan buff.ly/H52lG74
Register now
European Conference on Politics and Gender, Newcastle University, 15 – 17 June 2026
buff.ly
January 27, 2026 at 4:01 PM
📣 Registration now open #ECPG26
🌸 European Conference on Politics and Gender @ecprgender.bsky.social
📆 15 – 17 Jun
⏰ Register by 30 Mar
The conference champions methodological diversity and promotes plurality in analytical perspectives.
💰 Funding available. Apply by 30 Jan buff.ly/H52lG74
🌸 European Conference on Politics and Gender @ecprgender.bsky.social
📆 15 – 17 Jun
⏰ Register by 30 Mar
The conference champions methodological diversity and promotes plurality in analytical perspectives.
💰 Funding available. Apply by 30 Jan buff.ly/H52lG74
Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld
I guess it was inevitable, but sad to see him reduced to this.
Matthew Goodwin choosing this moment to stand in Gorton & Denton, tells you exactly what he’s about.
He can smell the media attention, like a bloodhound.
He can smell the media attention, like a bloodhound.
January 27, 2026 at 4:21 PM
I guess it was inevitable, but sad to see him reduced to this.
Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld
This would result in a Parliament with 322 right-of-centre MPs and 320 left-of-centre MPs...
January 27, 2026 at 9:45 AM
This would result in a Parliament with 322 right-of-centre MPs and 320 left-of-centre MPs...
Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld
My wish for 2026 is that politicians and political analysts realize that public opinion is endogenous to elite behavior, that polling single issues tells us nothing about electorally successful strategies, that politics means shaping public opinion and that popularism is the death of progressivism.
December 31, 2025 at 8:53 AM
My wish for 2026 is that politicians and political analysts realize that public opinion is endogenous to elite behavior, that polling single issues tells us nothing about electorally successful strategies, that politics means shaping public opinion and that popularism is the death of progressivism.
Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld
#Reminder
„Die Demokratie ist keine Frage der Zweckmäßigkeit, sondern der Sittlichkeit.“
Willy Brandt
"Demokratie ist ein grundsätzlicher moralischer Auftrag, das Bekenntnis zu einer gerechten Gesellschaftsordnung, die die Freiheit und Gleichheit aller Menschen achtet."
„Die Demokratie ist keine Frage der Zweckmäßigkeit, sondern der Sittlichkeit.“
Willy Brandt
"Demokratie ist ein grundsätzlicher moralischer Auftrag, das Bekenntnis zu einer gerechten Gesellschaftsordnung, die die Freiheit und Gleichheit aller Menschen achtet."
„Keine Frage der Zweckmäßigkeit“ - Demokratiegeschichten
Was steckt hinter dem Demokratiezitat „Die Demokratie ist uns keine Frage der Zweckmäßigkeit, sondern der Sittlichkeit“ von Willy Brandt?
www.demokratiegeschichten.de
December 22, 2025 at 2:09 PM
#Reminder
„Die Demokratie ist keine Frage der Zweckmäßigkeit, sondern der Sittlichkeit.“
Willy Brandt
"Demokratie ist ein grundsätzlicher moralischer Auftrag, das Bekenntnis zu einer gerechten Gesellschaftsordnung, die die Freiheit und Gleichheit aller Menschen achtet."
„Die Demokratie ist keine Frage der Zweckmäßigkeit, sondern der Sittlichkeit.“
Willy Brandt
"Demokratie ist ein grundsätzlicher moralischer Auftrag, das Bekenntnis zu einer gerechten Gesellschaftsordnung, die die Freiheit und Gleichheit aller Menschen achtet."
Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld
Nowcast Update - Green's vote share surpasses Lib Dems, as Labour hits new low.
RFM: 350 (+345), 30.2% (50 Maj.)
LAB: 87 (-324), 18.8%
LDM: 75 (+3), 13.0%
SNP: 44 (+35), 2.7%
CON: 38 (-83), 17.6%
GRN: 23 (+19), 13.5%
PLC: 7 (+3), 1.1%
Oth: 7 (+2), 3.1%
electionmaps.uk/nowcast
RFM: 350 (+345), 30.2% (50 Maj.)
LAB: 87 (-324), 18.8%
LDM: 75 (+3), 13.0%
SNP: 44 (+35), 2.7%
CON: 38 (-83), 17.6%
GRN: 23 (+19), 13.5%
PLC: 7 (+3), 1.1%
Oth: 7 (+2), 3.1%
electionmaps.uk/nowcast
November 23, 2025 at 9:59 AM
Nowcast Update - Green's vote share surpasses Lib Dems, as Labour hits new low.
RFM: 350 (+345), 30.2% (50 Maj.)
LAB: 87 (-324), 18.8%
LDM: 75 (+3), 13.0%
SNP: 44 (+35), 2.7%
CON: 38 (-83), 17.6%
GRN: 23 (+19), 13.5%
PLC: 7 (+3), 1.1%
Oth: 7 (+2), 3.1%
electionmaps.uk/nowcast
RFM: 350 (+345), 30.2% (50 Maj.)
LAB: 87 (-324), 18.8%
LDM: 75 (+3), 13.0%
SNP: 44 (+35), 2.7%
CON: 38 (-83), 17.6%
GRN: 23 (+19), 13.5%
PLC: 7 (+3), 1.1%
Oth: 7 (+2), 3.1%
electionmaps.uk/nowcast
Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld
#Parteizustimmungsindex (#PZI): CDU/CSU: 28,3%, AfD: 23,4%, SPD: 15%, Grüne: 11,9%, Linke: 9,2%, BSW: 3,6%, FDP: 3,3% ➤ dawum.de#PZI | Der PZI setzt sich zusammen aus den nach Einwohnern gewichteten Umfragewerten für die Länder und aus dem zum Bundestag.
November 23, 2025 at 4:00 PM
#Parteizustimmungsindex (#PZI): CDU/CSU: 28,3%, AfD: 23,4%, SPD: 15%, Grüne: 11,9%, Linke: 9,2%, BSW: 3,6%, FDP: 3,3% ➤ dawum.de#PZI | Der PZI setzt sich zusammen aus den nach Einwohnern gewichteten Umfragewerten für die Länder und aus dem zum Bundestag.
Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld
The Eric Schickler essay in Larry Bartel's symposium on "What Trump Has Taught Us About Political Science" is one of the most insightful pieces I've read in 2025.
US institutions turned out to be weak, and we have to rethink conventional wisdom.
open access: academic.oup.com/psq/advance-...
US institutions turned out to be weak, and we have to rethink conventional wisdom.
open access: academic.oup.com/psq/advance-...
November 19, 2025 at 8:08 PM
The Eric Schickler essay in Larry Bartel's symposium on "What Trump Has Taught Us About Political Science" is one of the most insightful pieces I've read in 2025.
US institutions turned out to be weak, and we have to rethink conventional wisdom.
open access: academic.oup.com/psq/advance-...
US institutions turned out to be weak, and we have to rethink conventional wisdom.
open access: academic.oup.com/psq/advance-...
Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld
ON THE BLOG: Assessing the House of Commons Backbench Business Committee 15 years on
Unit Director Meg Russell and Hannah Kelly argue changes are needed to get back to the Wright Committee’s vision of it helping facilitate a more responsive and independent House of Commons.
Unit Director Meg Russell and Hannah Kelly argue changes are needed to get back to the Wright Committee’s vision of it helping facilitate a more responsive and independent House of Commons.
Assessing the House of Commons Backbench Business Committee 15 years on
Unit Director Meg Russell and Hannah Kelly argue changes are needed to get back to the Wright Committee’s vision of it helping facilitate a more responsive and independent House of Commons.
constitution-unit.com
November 20, 2025 at 8:07 AM
ON THE BLOG: Assessing the House of Commons Backbench Business Committee 15 years on
Unit Director Meg Russell and Hannah Kelly argue changes are needed to get back to the Wright Committee’s vision of it helping facilitate a more responsive and independent House of Commons.
Unit Director Meg Russell and Hannah Kelly argue changes are needed to get back to the Wright Committee’s vision of it helping facilitate a more responsive and independent House of Commons.
Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld
The Marist poll out today (Dems +14 in the U.S. House vote) is a huge outlier, but there has been clear movement to the left over the last month. The Democrats are up 4.4 in our average of generic ballot polls today, vs D+2.8 in mid-October.
fiftyplusone.news/polls/generi...
fiftyplusone.news/polls/generi...
November 19, 2025 at 6:40 PM
The Marist poll out today (Dems +14 in the U.S. House vote) is a huge outlier, but there has been clear movement to the left over the last month. The Democrats are up 4.4 in our average of generic ballot polls today, vs D+2.8 in mid-October.
fiftyplusone.news/polls/generi...
fiftyplusone.news/polls/generi...
Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld
More and more young people are turning to the far right. Why and what can we do about it?
Join our #COVIDEU Workshop on Nov 21 (2–5 PM) to discuss causes and counter-strategies.
🚀 Hosted by @humboldt-govlab.bsky.social
💡 Funded by @volkswagenstiftung.de
👉 Register: tinyurl.com/bdenyfnw
Join our #COVIDEU Workshop on Nov 21 (2–5 PM) to discuss causes and counter-strategies.
🚀 Hosted by @humboldt-govlab.bsky.social
💡 Funded by @volkswagenstiftung.de
👉 Register: tinyurl.com/bdenyfnw
November 7, 2025 at 7:54 AM
More and more young people are turning to the far right. Why and what can we do about it?
Join our #COVIDEU Workshop on Nov 21 (2–5 PM) to discuss causes and counter-strategies.
🚀 Hosted by @humboldt-govlab.bsky.social
💡 Funded by @volkswagenstiftung.de
👉 Register: tinyurl.com/bdenyfnw
Join our #COVIDEU Workshop on Nov 21 (2–5 PM) to discuss causes and counter-strategies.
🚀 Hosted by @humboldt-govlab.bsky.social
💡 Funded by @volkswagenstiftung.de
👉 Register: tinyurl.com/bdenyfnw
Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld
📣 New op-ed in Süddeutsche Zeitung: What the data say about the “Brandmauer”
I summarize key findings from a study with @anninahermes.bsky.social across 57 democracies
➡️ Far-right parties don’t get weaker in government, they get stronger (~6 points by the next election)
tinyurl.com/4j6jaud2
I summarize key findings from a study with @anninahermes.bsky.social across 57 democracies
➡️ Far-right parties don’t get weaker in government, they get stronger (~6 points by the next election)
tinyurl.com/4j6jaud2
Demokratie: Wenn die Rechte mitregiert, wird sie nicht geschwächt – im Gegenteil
Eine Untersuchung von 57 Ländern zeigt: Wenn die Rechte in Verantwortung kommt, gewinnt sie dazu. Daraus lässt sich für Deutschland lernen.
www.sueddeutsche.de
November 18, 2025 at 8:51 PM
📣 New op-ed in Süddeutsche Zeitung: What the data say about the “Brandmauer”
I summarize key findings from a study with @anninahermes.bsky.social across 57 democracies
➡️ Far-right parties don’t get weaker in government, they get stronger (~6 points by the next election)
tinyurl.com/4j6jaud2
I summarize key findings from a study with @anninahermes.bsky.social across 57 democracies
➡️ Far-right parties don’t get weaker in government, they get stronger (~6 points by the next election)
tinyurl.com/4j6jaud2
Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld
Nearly 1 in 2 Muslims in the EU (47%) report they’ve experienced racism or discrimination in the past 5 years.
Most victims are women wearing religious clothing, job‑seekers, and those born in the EU.
This report shows a sharp rise since 2016.
Read more: fra.europa.eu/en/publicati...
Most victims are women wearing religious clothing, job‑seekers, and those born in the EU.
This report shows a sharp rise since 2016.
Read more: fra.europa.eu/en/publicati...
Being Muslim in the EU - Experiences of Muslims
fra.europa.eu
November 19, 2025 at 7:17 PM
Nearly 1 in 2 Muslims in the EU (47%) report they’ve experienced racism or discrimination in the past 5 years.
Most victims are women wearing religious clothing, job‑seekers, and those born in the EU.
This report shows a sharp rise since 2016.
Read more: fra.europa.eu/en/publicati...
Most victims are women wearing religious clothing, job‑seekers, and those born in the EU.
This report shows a sharp rise since 2016.
Read more: fra.europa.eu/en/publicati...
Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld
Our doctoral member @reppert-polsci.bsky.social has successfully completed his dissertation. In his Graduation Interview, he gives insights into the topic and findings of his dissertation, talks about his time at the BAGSS, and shares the next step in his career:
www.uni-bamberg.de/en/bagss/mag...
www.uni-bamberg.de/en/bagss/mag...
Thorsten Reppert Interview - BAMBERG GRADUATE SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES
www.uni-bamberg.de
November 10, 2025 at 12:13 PM
Our doctoral member @reppert-polsci.bsky.social has successfully completed his dissertation. In his Graduation Interview, he gives insights into the topic and findings of his dissertation, talks about his time at the BAGSS, and shares the next step in his career:
www.uni-bamberg.de/en/bagss/mag...
www.uni-bamberg.de/en/bagss/mag...
Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld
In an ongoing project, we ask which countries citizens prefer as benchmarks for policy decisions.
Pilot data from the UK show that Denmark is ranked as one of the most preferred reference countries, particularly in relation to migration policy.
Pilot data from the UK show that Denmark is ranked as one of the most preferred reference countries, particularly in relation to migration policy.
November 8, 2025 at 4:09 PM
In an ongoing project, we ask which countries citizens prefer as benchmarks for policy decisions.
Pilot data from the UK show that Denmark is ranked as one of the most preferred reference countries, particularly in relation to migration policy.
Pilot data from the UK show that Denmark is ranked as one of the most preferred reference countries, particularly in relation to migration policy.
Verfassungsblog
November 4, 2025 at 9:51 AM
Verfassungsblog
