Peter Williams
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pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams
@pd-williams.bsky.social

Climbing, skiing, rates’ musing economist

Peter Williams was a prominent leader of Welsh Calvinistic Methodism in the eighteenth century, best known for publishing Welsh-language bibles and bible commentary.

Source: Wikipedia
Physics 20%
Computer science 20%

I think this has certainly helped fuel how much more popular European and Asian vacations are with people, esp younger, now.

“If I’m blowing that much in the States I might as well go abroad, eat the flight cost, but have a cheaper + more novel experience once I arrive”

Juan Jamon was not spotted :(

Reposted by Peter Williams

Some of my thoughts on the state of the labor market in this @wsj.com article: www.wsj.com/economy/jobs...

Hipsterdom spread fancy coffee, beers, and farm to table everywhere so there’s much less of an anchor to novel scenes now

Could’ve said the western and sunbelt boomtowns for a time but they never had the cultural weight. Cowboy/workwear having a moment but that’s not particularly regional
ICYMI: I looked through a published archive of Boston newspapers from the 1760s, when British troops were stationed in the city.

The accounts read remarkably similar to what's happening in Minneapolis.

radleybalko.substack.com/p/two-cities...
Two cities under siege
Remarkably similar scenes from Boston and Minneapolis, 260 years apart, show a federal government betraying its founding principles.
radleybalko.substack.com
The people of Minnesota have executed one of the most impressive civil resistance campaigns I can remember:

- Organized a city wide general strike
- Maintained nonviolent discipline amidst violence
- Mobilized 10,000s in subzero temps to protest and watch ICE
- Flipped public opinion against ICE
Happy to help, sir.

From Judge Ellis:

"Bovino admitted in his deposition that he lied multiple times about the events that occurred in Little Village that prompted him to throw tear gas at protesters."

Was just marveling this morning how fruit here seems to get better in the dead of winter as LatAm moves into later summer and early fall
A heck of a chart: in every single one of the 10 major US cities that built the most housing between 2017 and 2023, rents for older, existing units fell—often by quite a bit.

Someone’s dog got snatched from perhaps the single most popular trail in Bozeman last summer. Right above town with tons of traffic but its a steep trail with lots of scrappy brush and rocky areas all around

Reposted by Peter Williams

This is how I learned I’m a better fit for finance culture and tech culture. You only succeed in tech culture by fully embracing the Current Thing and being all-in on it: danwang.co/2025-letter/

Run my first ultra and get into much better skiing shape
Wanna see real-life miracles? Fund scientific research.

A team of US scientists just cured Alzheimer’s in mice — and there is now hope that the disease can be reversed in humans.
futurism.com/health-medic...
Alzheimer's Fully Reversed in Mice, Scientists Say
A new compound has been shown to reverse late stage Alzheimer's disease in lab mice, which gives millions of sufferers new cause for hope.
futurism.com

Reposted by Peter Williams

Beyond that:

-there’s no problem that doesn’t immediately become easier to mentally handle after petting your dog
-MOVE. walk, run, stretch, pick things up and put them down, whatever
-eat protein
-sugar is bad
-don’t let pursuit of health turn you into a hermit

Reposted by Peter Williams

There have been a lot of bullshit narratives this year, but I think the "AI capex is the only reason the US economy is still growing" is possibly the most annoying because it was just a question of math ffs

Reposted by Peter Williams

This article isn't political, but you can tell exactly who these people voted for, even if the estrangement wasn't about politics.
These Moms Are Done Being ‘Doormats’ for Their Estranged Children
Parents publicly blast their adult offspring for cutting them off, drawing tens of thousands of online followers.
www.wsj.com

Observationally, as not a BBG submitter, smaller releases tend not to see revisions reflecting “known” but not narrative pertinent one offs. Basically only NFP and CPI do and even then it can be a stretch.

It’s just a seasonality issue that the SAs didn’t adjust for. Exact same decelerating trend of y/y NSA growth as in recent weeks
IN DEPTH | If you could speak to your dead grandmother forever, would you?
If you could speak to your dead grandmother forever, would you?
www.independent.co.uk

Also requires jettisoning a link between g* and r* (not that it’s historically been all that strong)

Good evidence for the theory that the US just lost it a bit societally in a large number of ways, beyond the murder spike and inflation, post-Covid but is coming back together a bit since
"Deaths from traffic accidents, drug overdoses, and alcohol-related causes are all falling fast in a similar manner to homicides based on data from the CDC." open.substack.com/pub/jasher/p...
It's Not Just Murder That Is Falling Rapidly
Death rates from several causes in the US are falling fast.
open.substack.com

Reposted by Peter Williams

"Deaths from traffic accidents, drug overdoses, and alcohol-related causes are all falling fast in a similar manner to homicides based on data from the CDC." open.substack.com/pub/jasher/p...
It's Not Just Murder That Is Falling Rapidly
Death rates from several causes in the US are falling fast.
open.substack.com

Going to a carols service in St Paul’s Cathedral was one of the more magical experiences of my life

My guess is that lower churn on avg hits different seasons in confusing ways differently (applies a bit to labor market too) but it’s a tentative guess

I just use yearly stacked NSA’s like your chart or y/y % change for all the claims data at this point.

Reposted by Peter Williams

If, OTOH, we treat complaints about affordability as proxies for a subjective sense of precariousness in American economic life, we can try to get to the bottom of why Americans feel like things are more precarious than hard data says they are. www.offmessage.net/p/taking-aff...

Was thinking about this and the question comes down to are you trying to minimize the cross-sectional errors or best explain something of macro significance. Potentially calls for completely different approaches

Rock the subfusc and screw the haters
*second much more easily said than done

That seems true and suggests we have decent visibility w/o missing similar SME activity.

But white collar anxiety goes against spending trends through even end-Oct

It also appears pretty clear that Challenger for whatever reason has an upward bias vs initial claims and JOLTS for last 3-4y

I don’t lift heavy all that often any more, but it is real hard to beat the feeling the of the bar bouncing around on your back or collar bones