Peter Williams
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pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams
@pd-williams.bsky.social
300 followers 180 following 90 posts

Climbing, skiing, rates’ musing economist

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Peter Williams was a prominent leader of Welsh Calvinistic Methodism in the eighteenth century, best known for publishing Welsh-language bibles and bible commentary.

Source: Wikipedia
Physics 20%
Computer science 20%
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Reposted by Peter Williams

ljkawa.bsky.social
Luke Kawa @ljkawa.bsky.social · 3h
Beyond that:

-there’s no problem that doesn’t immediately become easier to mentally handle after petting your dog
-MOVE. walk, run, stretch, pick things up and put them down, whatever
-eat protein
-sugar is bad
-don’t let pursuit of health turn you into a hermit

Reposted by Peter Williams

darioperkins.bsky.social
Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 3d
There have been a lot of bullshit narratives this year, but I think the "AI capex is the only reason the US economy is still growing" is possibly the most annoying because it was just a question of math ffs

Reposted by Peter Williams

aubreygilleran.bsky.social
Aubrey Gilleran @aubreygilleran.bsky.social · 10d
This article isn't political, but you can tell exactly who these people voted for, even if the estrangement wasn't about politics.
These Moms Are Done Being ‘Doormats’ for Their Estranged Children
Parents publicly blast their adult offspring for cutting them off, drawing tens of thousands of online followers.
www.wsj.com

pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams @pd-williams.bsky.social · 15d
Observationally, as not a BBG submitter, smaller releases tend not to see revisions reflecting “known” but not narrative pertinent one offs. Basically only NFP and CPI do and even then it can be a stretch.

pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams @pd-williams.bsky.social · 15d
It’s just a seasonality issue that the SAs didn’t adjust for. Exact same decelerating trend of y/y NSA growth as in recent weeks

Reposted by Shannon Vallor, John Horgan, Andrew Scott , and 4 more

the-independent.com
The Independent @the-independent.com · 16d
IN DEPTH | If you could speak to your dead grandmother forever, would you?
If you could speak to your dead grandmother forever, would you?
www.independent.co.uk

pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams @pd-williams.bsky.social · 17d
Also requires jettisoning a link between g* and r* (not that it’s historically been all that strong)

pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams @pd-williams.bsky.social · 18d
Good evidence for the theory that the US just lost it a bit societally in a large number of ways, beyond the murder spike and inflation, post-Covid but is coming back together a bit since
nickbaumann.bsky.social Nick Baumann @nickbaumann.bsky.social · 18d
"Deaths from traffic accidents, drug overdoses, and alcohol-related causes are all falling fast in a similar manner to homicides based on data from the CDC." open.substack.com/pub/jasher/p...
It's Not Just Murder That Is Falling Rapidly
Death rates from several causes in the US are falling fast.
open.substack.com

Reposted by Peter Williams

nickbaumann.bsky.social
Nick Baumann @nickbaumann.bsky.social · 18d
"Deaths from traffic accidents, drug overdoses, and alcohol-related causes are all falling fast in a similar manner to homicides based on data from the CDC." open.substack.com/pub/jasher/p...
It's Not Just Murder That Is Falling Rapidly
Death rates from several causes in the US are falling fast.
open.substack.com

pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams @pd-williams.bsky.social · 22d
Going to a carols service in St Paul’s Cathedral was one of the more magical experiences of my life

pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams @pd-williams.bsky.social · 26d
My guess is that lower churn on avg hits different seasons in confusing ways differently (applies a bit to labor market too) but it’s a tentative guess

pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams @pd-williams.bsky.social · Nov 26
I just use yearly stacked NSA’s like your chart or y/y % change for all the claims data at this point.

Reposted by Peter Williams

brianbeutler.bsky.social
Brian Beutler @brianbeutler.bsky.social · Nov 24
If, OTOH, we treat complaints about affordability as proxies for a subjective sense of precariousness in American economic life, we can try to get to the bottom of why Americans feel like things are more precarious than hard data says they are. www.offmessage.net/p/taking-aff...

pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams @pd-williams.bsky.social · Nov 18
Was thinking about this and the question comes down to are you trying to minimize the cross-sectional errors or best explain something of macro significance. Potentially calls for completely different approaches

pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams @pd-williams.bsky.social · Nov 17
Rock the subfusc and screw the haters
*second much more easily said than done

pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams @pd-williams.bsky.social · Nov 13
That seems true and suggests we have decent visibility w/o missing similar SME activity.

But white collar anxiety goes against spending trends through even end-Oct

It also appears pretty clear that Challenger for whatever reason has an upward bias vs initial claims and JOLTS for last 3-4y

pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams @pd-williams.bsky.social · Nov 11
I don’t lift heavy all that often any more, but it is real hard to beat the feeling the of the bar bouncing around on your back or collar bones

pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams @pd-williams.bsky.social · Nov 9
Rational brain: “early snow often sets up dangerous backcountry conditions all winter”

November skier brain: “I got a fever and the solution is more powder”
weatherwest.bsky.social Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · Nov 8
Then, by late week, pronounced ridge-trough pattern over continental U.S. will shift eastward & partially break down--likely opening the "storm door" along the West coast. A pretty wet period is likely thereafter, with moderate to even heavy rain extending all the way into SoCal.
Snapshot of mid-late Nov 500mg GPH anomalies from ECMWF ensemble over North America. It depicts a very strong Greenland ridge persisting at least until late Nov, with a persistent trough along the West Coast once this week's ridge dissipates.

Reposted by Peter Williams

weatherwest.bsky.social
Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · Nov 8
Then, by late week, pronounced ridge-trough pattern over continental U.S. will shift eastward & partially break down--likely opening the "storm door" along the West coast. A pretty wet period is likely thereafter, with moderate to even heavy rain extending all the way into SoCal.
Snapshot of mid-late Nov 500mg GPH anomalies from ECMWF ensemble over North America. It depicts a very strong Greenland ridge persisting at least until late Nov, with a persistent trough along the West Coast once this week's ridge dissipates.

pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams @pd-williams.bsky.social · Nov 3
Totally fair. I just feel like I’ve seen some people saying to ignore it not “we haven’t really learned anything since 10/1”

pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams @pd-williams.bsky.social · Nov 3
I mean we know where it stood at end-Sept with two months of pretty complete data for the quarter’s inputs. The minimal changes since then not really telling us much new either way.

Reposted by Peter Williams

chrislhayes.bsky.social
Chris Hayes @chrislhayes.bsky.social · Oct 31
Also, maybe we come up with, like, two more holidays, say in the early and late spring, that involve walking around the neighborhood and talking to your neighbors?

pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams @pd-williams.bsky.social · Oct 22
IME, it’s simply too much material to cram in the ‘in one ear right out the other’ way a shorter single topic exam allows for. You still study like mad but there’s a reason revision periods are 2-6 weeks not a few days.

pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams @pd-williams.bsky.social · Oct 22
The UK approach I experienced of modest weight placed on work done across the year (essays, short quizzes, etc) with vast majority placed on a single end of year encompassing exam seems much more robust to AI challenges. Always thought by preventing cramming it was better anyway.

Reposted by Peter Thorne, Patrick Dunleavy, Peter Williams , and 3 more

janrosenow.bsky.social
Jan Rosenow @janrosenow.bsky.social · Oct 13
Grid scale batteries are changing our electricity system. Excellent new visual story on batteries in FT today shows just how far this technology has evolved.

Fasten your seatbelts, this is just the beginning.

ig.ft.com/mega-batteri...

pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams @pd-williams.bsky.social · Oct 10
Cash never lived in greater NYC therefor…

pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams @pd-williams.bsky.social · Oct 2
In recent years yes

Haven’t had an electric setup since I first moved to DC 10+ years ago but happiness would be an ES-330 into a Fender