Tom Radcliffe
@tjradcliffe.bsky.social
Physicist, Breakthrough Prize Laureate (SNO), poet, engineer, writer, actor, sailor, canoeist, kayaker, boat-builder, businessman, philosopher (Bayesian), executive, entrepreneur (unsuccessful), consulting scientist, inventor, husband, father, grandfather.
Pinned
Tom Radcliffe
@tjradcliffe.bsky.social
· Dec 12
Capuleft and Montaright
A sword-and-cell-phone nove-in-verse!
siduri.net
My latest book, a sword-cell-phone novel-in-verse that riffs on "Romeo and Juliet", but Romeo's friends aren't all idiots. Nobody dies, lots of people end up in bed. "A fabulous modern take on Romeo and Juliet set in a gritty urban backdrop"-Emily Thompson, ReedsyDiscovery siduri.net/books/capule...
Reposted by Tom Radcliffe
All of those people who claimed to be desperately worried about mental health at the start of the pandemic seem to no longer care about mental health.
It was obvious at that time that they did not care, and frankly, they never will.
That little dip in deaths by suicide was in 2020.
It was obvious at that time that they did not care, and frankly, they never will.
That little dip in deaths by suicide was in 2020.
January 4, 2026 at 4:54 PM
All of those people who claimed to be desperately worried about mental health at the start of the pandemic seem to no longer care about mental health.
It was obvious at that time that they did not care, and frankly, they never will.
That little dip in deaths by suicide was in 2020.
It was obvious at that time that they did not care, and frankly, they never will.
That little dip in deaths by suicide was in 2020.
Reposted by Tom Radcliffe
Proud of you!!
Happening now: several hundred people are pouring into Chicago's downtown Federal Plaza.
It's 25 degrees outside.
Organizers are leading the crowd in a chant of, "no boots on the ground, no bombs in the air!"
Two protesters hold a large banner reading, "no war for Venezuela oil."
It's 25 degrees outside.
Organizers are leading the crowd in a chant of, "no boots on the ground, no bombs in the air!"
Two protesters hold a large banner reading, "no war for Venezuela oil."
January 4, 2026 at 5:11 AM
Proud of you!!
Still kinda amazed by the "Trump said..." headlines. Zero self-awareness or self-control on the part of easily manipulated pro-trump non-MAGA mainstream editors. Every time I lower my estimation of average intelligence and epistemic discipline they quite comfortably duck under it.
January 4, 2026 at 5:01 AM
Still kinda amazed by the "Trump said..." headlines. Zero self-awareness or self-control on the part of easily manipulated pro-trump non-MAGA mainstream editors. Every time I lower my estimation of average intelligence and epistemic discipline they quite comfortably duck under it.
Reposted by Tom Radcliffe
Mark Carney’s initial social media response to Trump attacking Venezuela criticizes the Maduro regime, but doesn’t criticize or even name the Trump regime. Carney's response here is pure moral cowardice. 🧵1/
January 4, 2026 at 3:27 AM
Mark Carney’s initial social media response to Trump attacking Venezuela criticizes the Maduro regime, but doesn’t criticize or even name the Trump regime. Carney's response here is pure moral cowardice. 🧵1/
Reposted by Tom Radcliffe
Monday is back to school for most, I would suspect by the end of the week I have shared at least 1 school closed for illness news story.
January 4, 2026 at 3:55 AM
Monday is back to school for most, I would suspect by the end of the week I have shared at least 1 school closed for illness news story.
Reposted by Tom Radcliffe
Being profoundly upset about the 51st state stuff was not an unreasonable reaction.
January 3, 2026 at 1:51 PM
Being profoundly upset about the 51st state stuff was not an unreasonable reaction.
Reposted by Tom Radcliffe
Not one country summoned US ambassador.
January 3, 2026 at 4:22 PM
Not one country summoned US ambassador.
Epuld be cool if our quisling PM said something closer to this.
Norway’s Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide: "International law is universal and binding for all states. The American intervention in Venezuela is not in accordance with international law."
January 4, 2026 at 1:50 AM
Epuld be cool if our quisling PM said something closer to this.
Reposted by Tom Radcliffe
What we can say so far is that every single one of the ~thousands of US service people who have received a diversity of grossly illegal orders this year have followed them. That's a large sample, maybe not completely random, but enough to tell us most will continue to follow all illegal orders.
Let's add some nuance:
The military is not a monolith, it's fucking huge
The emotions I'm feeling are sadness and anger
The cognitive basis for these emotions is that this "moves my prior" toward other, non-JSOC elements just going along with an invasion of Mexico, or Greenland, or Canada.
The military is not a monolith, it's fucking huge
The emotions I'm feeling are sadness and anger
The cognitive basis for these emotions is that this "moves my prior" toward other, non-JSOC elements just going along with an invasion of Mexico, or Greenland, or Canada.
Real black pilled on the military. The oath means absolutely nothing at all, apparently. Happy to be praetorians, just as long as the check clears.
January 4, 2026 at 1:42 AM
What we can say so far is that every single one of the ~thousands of US service people who have received a diversity of grossly illegal orders this year have followed them. That's a large sample, maybe not completely random, but enough to tell us most will continue to follow all illegal orders.
Reposted by Tom Radcliffe
Good job!
#GVerse Massive march in NYC against #Shit4Brain's war on Venezuela
January 4, 2026 at 1:28 AM
Good job!
Reposted by Tom Radcliffe
i think that people really underestimate reality that
1) administration has no doctrine, it is really about a single, mercurial, and half-awake man
2) the administration is a constantly churning system with factions that rise and fall contextually
3) might not have happened if trump tower caracas
1) administration has no doctrine, it is really about a single, mercurial, and half-awake man
2) the administration is a constantly churning system with factions that rise and fall contextually
3) might not have happened if trump tower caracas
January 3, 2026 at 11:15 AM
i think that people really underestimate reality that
1) administration has no doctrine, it is really about a single, mercurial, and half-awake man
2) the administration is a constantly churning system with factions that rise and fall contextually
3) might not have happened if trump tower caracas
1) administration has no doctrine, it is really about a single, mercurial, and half-awake man
2) the administration is a constantly churning system with factions that rise and fall contextually
3) might not have happened if trump tower caracas
Reposted by Tom Radcliffe
The disconnect is the presumption of rationality of the Trump regime. They want a big ass battleship and Venezuelan oil because they are stuck in an invented past.
January 4, 2026 at 12:08 AM
The disconnect is the presumption of rationality of the Trump regime. They want a big ass battleship and Venezuelan oil because they are stuck in an invented past.
Reposted by Tom Radcliffe
Shocked the oil companies aren’t lined up to dump billions into reviving the country’s pipeline infrastructure when there’s no clear understanding of who will be running Venezuela in the next two months, let alone 10 years
January 4, 2026 at 12:00 AM
Shocked the oil companies aren’t lined up to dump billions into reviving the country’s pipeline infrastructure when there’s no clear understanding of who will be running Venezuela in the next two months, let alone 10 years
Reposted by Tom Radcliffe
The most frustrating part is media outlets pretending that Venezuela is this vast ocean of totally normal oil
It’s not
The oil is incredibly heavy/less valuable
A large amount of the oil is prohibitively expensive to drill for, where it is
It’s not a desert where it’s simple to pump out.
It’s not
The oil is incredibly heavy/less valuable
A large amount of the oil is prohibitively expensive to drill for, where it is
It’s not a desert where it’s simple to pump out.
January 3, 2026 at 11:08 PM
The most frustrating part is media outlets pretending that Venezuela is this vast ocean of totally normal oil
It’s not
The oil is incredibly heavy/less valuable
A large amount of the oil is prohibitively expensive to drill for, where it is
It’s not a desert where it’s simple to pump out.
It’s not
The oil is incredibly heavy/less valuable
A large amount of the oil is prohibitively expensive to drill for, where it is
It’s not a desert where it’s simple to pump out.
Reposted by Tom Radcliffe
This almost makes Iraq 2003 look professional.. And it is not an interim government, it is just the same government as before having lost the president and using their succession order as far as I can see..
January 3, 2026 at 9:53 PM
This almost makes Iraq 2003 look professional.. And it is not an interim government, it is just the same government as before having lost the president and using their succession order as far as I can see..
Reposted by Tom Radcliffe
The position of the United States is that Westphalian states no longer exist.
January 3, 2026 at 11:29 PM
The position of the United States is that Westphalian states no longer exist.
Reposted by Tom Radcliffe
Rather than wondering about a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, the much more pressing concern is that China could be much more aggressive toward dissidents abroad.
China’s quintessential “international law” issues are the South China Sea and trade, not Taiwan.
China’s quintessential “international law” issues are the South China Sea and trade, not Taiwan.
January 3, 2026 at 11:24 PM
Rather than wondering about a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, the much more pressing concern is that China could be much more aggressive toward dissidents abroad.
China’s quintessential “international law” issues are the South China Sea and trade, not Taiwan.
China’s quintessential “international law” issues are the South China Sea and trade, not Taiwan.
Reposted by Tom Radcliffe
She punked Trump. Beautiful.
President Trump said on Saturday that Delcy Rodríguez was sworn in as Venezuela’s interim president and would act as a partner in letting the U.S. run the country. Less than two hours later, Rodríguez made clear she viewed the U.S. as an illegal invader that must be rejected.
Venezuela’s Interim Leader Defies Trump and Calls Maduro the ‘Only President’
President Trump said that Venezuela’s new leader, Delcy Rodríguez, would help the United States run Venezuela. She quickly said the opposite.
nyti.ms
January 4, 2026 at 12:01 AM
She punked Trump. Beautiful.
Reposted by Tom Radcliffe
You and I are horrified by this but it's important to remember that this is what pete hegseth actually wants, he would be disappointed if there were no innocent civilians killed, because that would be woke
NYT:
At least 40 people were killed in the US attack on Venezuela, including military personnel and civilians.
At least 40 people were killed in the US attack on Venezuela, including military personnel and civilians.
January 3, 2026 at 11:53 PM
You and I are horrified by this but it's important to remember that this is what pete hegseth actually wants, he would be disappointed if there were no innocent civilians killed, because that would be woke
Reposted by Tom Radcliffe
People seem to forget this, but even Russia saw fit to pay lip service to international law when it first invaded Ukraine. You can interrogate whether it mattered, but the compulsion to appear as if one is adhering to law goes a long way toward reifying them compared to ignoring them altogether.
This is a great formulation of the importance and value of international law.
Many people dismiss it with cynicism masquerading as realism.
But if it weren't important, powerful states wouldn't go through so much trouble justifying the legality of their actions.
Many people dismiss it with cynicism masquerading as realism.
But if it weren't important, powerful states wouldn't go through so much trouble justifying the legality of their actions.
I've proudly said before that the logic of the third worldist is right in many respects and that the law is fake but also the law is real and third worldists themselves have used it to advance their own struggle. I like the law and want it to be enforced. post-ideology is where hitlerism emanates
January 3, 2026 at 10:36 PM
People seem to forget this, but even Russia saw fit to pay lip service to international law when it first invaded Ukraine. You can interrogate whether it mattered, but the compulsion to appear as if one is adhering to law goes a long way toward reifying them compared to ignoring them altogether.
Reposted by Tom Radcliffe
Clearly seeing what this all means, Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs posts this
January 3, 2026 at 9:18 AM
Clearly seeing what this all means, Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs posts this
Reposted by Tom Radcliffe
Trump just posted this photo of the sharpest minds in our intelligence community hard at work during the Venezuelan operation.
January 3, 2026 at 6:20 PM
Trump just posted this photo of the sharpest minds in our intelligence community hard at work during the Venezuelan operation.
Reposted by Tom Radcliffe
Embrace joy, wherever you can find it.
January 3, 2026 at 11:09 PM
Embrace joy, wherever you can find it.
Reposted by Tom Radcliffe
Very important signal here. You can say it's abt oil. And part of it is. But the White House is actually being forced to strongarm the oil companies to get involved. www.politico.com/news/2026/01...
Trump admin sends tough private message to oil companies on Venezuela
The White House has told companies they must rebuild Venezuela's crude-pumping infrastructure if they want compensation for assets seized by Caracas.
www.politico.com
January 3, 2026 at 10:57 PM
Very important signal here. You can say it's abt oil. And part of it is. But the White House is actually being forced to strongarm the oil companies to get involved. www.politico.com/news/2026/01...