Tom Radcliffe
@tjradcliffe.bsky.social
Physicist, Breakthrough Prize Laureate (SNO), poet, engineer, writer, actor, sailor, canoeist, kayaker, boat-builder, businessman, philosopher (Bayesian), executive, entrepreneur (unsuccessful), consulting scientist, inventor, husband, father, grandfather.
Thanks to @beansproutsmom.bsky.social for pointing out something I completely missed, and which explains the incomprehensible dynamics: "Note: These case counts only capture a subset of actual cases as some people may not be presenting for diagnosis and health care support."
I missed it b/c I...
I missed it b/c I...
November 13, 2025 at 11:18 PM
Thanks to @beansproutsmom.bsky.social for pointing out something I completely missed, and which explains the incomprehensible dynamics: "Note: These case counts only capture a subset of actual cases as some people may not be presenting for diagnosis and health care support."
I missed it b/c I...
I missed it b/c I...
Measles cases continue to grow in BC, to no one but Bonnie Henry's surprise. The fit is extremely preliminary. It starts at 310 on Oct 20th and grows with a doubling time of 80 days. IF that's correct (it likely isn't) it means 550 cases by end of year. But the error could be in either direction.
November 7, 2025 at 3:18 AM
Measles cases continue to grow in BC, to no one but Bonnie Henry's surprise. The fit is extremely preliminary. It starts at 310 on Oct 20th and grows with a doubling time of 80 days. IF that's correct (it likely isn't) it means 550 cases by end of year. But the error could be in either direction.
Canada. Hanging by a bit of damage. Surrounded by beauty. Not about to yield.
November 2, 2025 at 7:06 AM
Canada. Hanging by a bit of damage. Surrounded by beauty. Not about to yield.
The world may be shit but the light in Elder Cedar today was beyond beautiful.
November 2, 2025 at 6:50 AM
The world may be shit but the light in Elder Cedar today was beyond beautiful.
It turns out that reactive, catch-up vaccination policy doesn't work very well for measles. Measles growth in BC has resumed. Who could have possibly predicted this??? Oh, yeah: me, and anyone else with an even modest understanding of exponential dynamics. Which is to say: no one in BC public health
October 30, 2025 at 10:17 PM
It turns out that reactive, catch-up vaccination policy doesn't work very well for measles. Measles growth in BC has resumed. Who could have possibly predicted this??? Oh, yeah: me, and anyone else with an even modest understanding of exponential dynamics. Which is to say: no one in BC public health
The poor quality of data in Canada--and especially BC--is obscene. It's blasphemy: There is no scripture but the world, no gospel but the data. And we treat it like crap. I've not put a curve on this graph b/c I have no idea what the dynamics are now. But my bet is we'll see exponential in November.
October 30, 2025 at 10:14 PM
The poor quality of data in Canada--and especially BC--is obscene. It's blasphemy: There is no scripture but the world, no gospel but the data. And we treat it like crap. I've not put a curve on this graph b/c I have no idea what the dynamics are now. But my bet is we'll see exponential in November.
Dynamics for dummies. If measles produces ~12 cases per case in a naive population (which is unlikely, as the whole R0 concept is sketchy as hell) and 30% of kids are unvaccinated, every pediatric case in school should run to ~4 cases. So: How is this curve possible?
October 24, 2025 at 2:26 AM
Dynamics for dummies. If measles produces ~12 cases per case in a naive population (which is unlikely, as the whole R0 concept is sketchy as hell) and 30% of kids are unvaccinated, every pediatric case in school should run to ~4 cases. So: How is this curve possible?
So they say. I have no idea what to make of these dynamics.
October 21, 2025 at 3:07 AM
So they say. I have no idea what to make of these dynamics.
On the water. Gorgeous day, and ~no wind in the bay. Cedar floorboards are removable to keep carry weight down. Thwart may be temporary depending on how I rig her for paddling and rowing. Note cross-hatched synthetic gut (waxed nylon) on rib lashing: ~1000 knots, but roving it this way adds strength
October 13, 2025 at 10:07 PM
On the water. Gorgeous day, and ~no wind in the bay. Cedar floorboards are removable to keep carry weight down. Thwart may be temporary depending on how I rig her for paddling and rowing. Note cross-hatched synthetic gut (waxed nylon) on rib lashing: ~1000 knots, but roving it this way adds strength
Afloat! Christened "Learning Curve" with a splash of 18-year-old Bowmore, because you don't want to stint the sea. Handles as designed: light and easy (I can pick her up with one hand). Next step is to add oars, but she goes well with just a canoe paddle. Wind is not her friend, but that's expected.
October 13, 2025 at 10:03 PM
Afloat! Christened "Learning Curve" with a splash of 18-year-old Bowmore, because you don't want to stint the sea. Handles as designed: light and easy (I can pick her up with one hand). Next step is to add oars, but she goes well with just a canoe paddle. Wind is not her friend, but that's expected.
A perfect fit. The constraint that it be car-top-able meant it had to fit the custom roof racks I built for the car a few years ago, which are wide enough to take two kayaks or one 47-inch-wide canoe. The straps are just long enough to fit. A good solid setup, although I'm not sure I'd highway it.
October 13, 2025 at 9:58 PM
A perfect fit. The constraint that it be car-top-able meant it had to fit the custom roof racks I built for the car a few years ago, which are wide enough to take two kayaks or one 47-inch-wide canoe. The straps are just long enough to fit. A good solid setup, although I'm not sure I'd highway it.
I can say with considerable confidence that the mass of Usians assembled in 9 days will not be even close to "the largest peaceful protest in modern history." It won't even come close to any random Tuesday in France.
October 10, 2025 at 6:30 AM
I can say with considerable confidence that the mass of Usians assembled in 9 days will not be even close to "the largest peaceful protest in modern history." It won't even come close to any random Tuesday in France.
Naively, there as been a 30 day delay in the case curve. Since the *underlying dynamics* of the measles outbreak in BC have not changed--that is, the overall vaccination rate of school age kids has not increased by more than a few percent, from 69 to low 70's--the growth curve should be similar. :-(
October 10, 2025 at 1:56 AM
Naively, there as been a 30 day delay in the case curve. Since the *underlying dynamics* of the measles outbreak in BC have not changed--that is, the overall vaccination rate of school age kids has not increased by more than a few percent, from 69 to low 70's--the growth curve should be similar. :-(
Rub-strip/keel on, and second coat of varnish. One more and she'll be ready for a sea trial!
October 9, 2025 at 12:42 AM
Rub-strip/keel on, and second coat of varnish. One more and she'll be ready for a sea trial!
October 7, 2025 at 5:21 AM
Not a great picture but one of the pileated woodpeckers we've had hanging around this year.
October 6, 2025 at 12:51 AM
Not a great picture but one of the pileated woodpeckers we've had hanging around this year.
Still apparently zero measles cases in BC. I have no idea how this was achieved with < 75% vaccination rate. CDC BC physicians said it was impossible to stop unless vaxx rate went up by ~20%, which is most certainly didn't. So what's going on? Were they lying about what it would take to stop it? Or?
September 30, 2025 at 2:36 AM
Still apparently zero measles cases in BC. I have no idea how this was achieved with < 75% vaccination rate. CDC BC physicians said it was impossible to stop unless vaxx rate went up by ~20%, which is most certainly didn't. So what's going on? Were they lying about what it would take to stop it? Or?
I'm still suspicious of these data from the BC CDC. School starts and measles cases go down with nothing but a tepid recommendation for vaccination? NO currently active cases? When half of known cases are in school age kids? Did measles suddenly become non-infectious? @beansproutsmom.bsky.social
September 23, 2025 at 4:57 AM
I'm still suspicious of these data from the BC CDC. School starts and measles cases go down with nothing but a tepid recommendation for vaccination? NO currently active cases? When half of known cases are in school age kids? Did measles suddenly become non-infectious? @beansproutsmom.bsky.social
I have seen claims that Disney stock is crashing after their cowardly suspension of Jimmy Kimmel in the face of pressure from the fascist US administration of Donald Trump. This is not a claim that is justified by the data, which sometimes the left pretends to care about, but actually doesn't.
September 20, 2025 at 5:45 PM
I have seen claims that Disney stock is crashing after their cowardly suspension of Jimmy Kimmel in the face of pressure from the fascist US administration of Donald Trump. This is not a claim that is justified by the data, which sometimes the left pretends to care about, but actually doesn't.
This is the definition of "in the noise".
September 20, 2025 at 5:43 PM
This is the definition of "in the noise".
I've seen the claim that Disney stock fell sharply after they suspended Jimmy Kimmel for offending the thin-skinned orangutan. This is not reflected in the data that I can find, which shows a 1.9% drop over the past few days and a 1.5% drop today, which is peanuts. Hopefully this will change, but..
September 19, 2025 at 3:52 AM
I've seen the claim that Disney stock fell sharply after they suspended Jimmy Kimmel for offending the thin-skinned orangutan. This is not reflected in the data that I can find, which shows a 1.9% drop over the past few days and a 1.5% drop today, which is peanuts. Hopefully this will change, but..