Joshua G. Schraiber
@jgschraiber.bsky.social
Evolutionary biologist, computational biologist, statistician. I like to develop mathematical models of evolutionary process and see how they fit to data. I also like cities where building apartments is legal.
Reposted by Joshua G. Schraiber
So many things are going wrong.
So many more things are going to go wrong.
So many more things are going to go wrong.
Wow. 733 measles cases so far this year. At this rate, 2026 will far exceed 2025, the worst year for measles in decades
Only 6 cases this year were imported from abroad. This is a domestic problem that will grow FAR worse when the babies going unvaccinated on RFK's watch admin go to kindergarten.
Only 6 cases this year were imported from abroad. This is a domestic problem that will grow FAR worse when the babies going unvaccinated on RFK's watch admin go to kindergarten.
February 9, 2026 at 10:17 PM
So many things are going wrong.
So many more things are going to go wrong.
So many more things are going to go wrong.
Reposted by Joshua G. Schraiber
Lurching towards Prop 13 for road infrastructure.
February 9, 2026 at 9:51 PM
Lurching towards Prop 13 for road infrastructure.
Reposted by Joshua G. Schraiber
New short blogpost!
There are probably many benefits of sharing clinical trial data, including:
Verifying results, better meta-analysis, understanding inconsistent results, further exploration, better clinical decision-making, learning how to run trials better, and reducing redundancy.
There are probably many benefits of sharing clinical trial data, including:
Verifying results, better meta-analysis, understanding inconsistent results, further exploration, better clinical decision-making, learning how to run trials better, and reducing redundancy.
The case for sharing clinical trial data
The story behind the first statin and how its development was almost derailed, and the implications of sharing clinical trial data.
abundanceandgrowthblog.substack.com
February 9, 2026 at 10:04 PM
New short blogpost!
There are probably many benefits of sharing clinical trial data, including:
Verifying results, better meta-analysis, understanding inconsistent results, further exploration, better clinical decision-making, learning how to run trials better, and reducing redundancy.
There are probably many benefits of sharing clinical trial data, including:
Verifying results, better meta-analysis, understanding inconsistent results, further exploration, better clinical decision-making, learning how to run trials better, and reducing redundancy.
Reposted by Joshua G. Schraiber
Whenever I see "natural" in reference to human health, I reach for my gun.
Suffering from infectious disease is "natural." Being parasitized by fly larvae is "natural." Dying of malnutrition is "natural."
Every human life saved by science is a middle finger in the face of a cruel, heartless world.
Suffering from infectious disease is "natural." Being parasitized by fly larvae is "natural." Dying of malnutrition is "natural."
Every human life saved by science is a middle finger in the face of a cruel, heartless world.
The golden rice situation makes me *SO* sad.
It's estimated a THIRD of people worldwide are Vitamin A deficient, which can cause permanent damage to the eyes — in many cases full-on blindness.
We created a perfect solution to this problem, but oh no, it's "unnatural"
It's estimated a THIRD of people worldwide are Vitamin A deficient, which can cause permanent damage to the eyes — in many cases full-on blindness.
We created a perfect solution to this problem, but oh no, it's "unnatural"
Same anti-science people who'd rather see people starve, than endorse GMOs. Because, hurr durr, Capitalism bad, science bad, therefore, hurr durr, golden rice bad and an unnatural abomination!
February 9, 2026 at 9:26 PM
Whenever I see "natural" in reference to human health, I reach for my gun.
Suffering from infectious disease is "natural." Being parasitized by fly larvae is "natural." Dying of malnutrition is "natural."
Every human life saved by science is a middle finger in the face of a cruel, heartless world.
Suffering from infectious disease is "natural." Being parasitized by fly larvae is "natural." Dying of malnutrition is "natural."
Every human life saved by science is a middle finger in the face of a cruel, heartless world.
Reposted by Joshua G. Schraiber
The golden rice situation makes me *SO* sad.
It's estimated a THIRD of people worldwide are Vitamin A deficient, which can cause permanent damage to the eyes — in many cases full-on blindness.
We created a perfect solution to this problem, but oh no, it's "unnatural"
It's estimated a THIRD of people worldwide are Vitamin A deficient, which can cause permanent damage to the eyes — in many cases full-on blindness.
We created a perfect solution to this problem, but oh no, it's "unnatural"
Same anti-science people who'd rather see people starve, than endorse GMOs. Because, hurr durr, Capitalism bad, science bad, therefore, hurr durr, golden rice bad and an unnatural abomination!
February 9, 2026 at 9:12 PM
The golden rice situation makes me *SO* sad.
It's estimated a THIRD of people worldwide are Vitamin A deficient, which can cause permanent damage to the eyes — in many cases full-on blindness.
We created a perfect solution to this problem, but oh no, it's "unnatural"
It's estimated a THIRD of people worldwide are Vitamin A deficient, which can cause permanent damage to the eyes — in many cases full-on blindness.
We created a perfect solution to this problem, but oh no, it's "unnatural"
"Panican" is like one of those jokes I think is gonna hit hard when it's in my mind and then it comes out of my mouth and I immediately regret it.
February 9, 2026 at 9:20 PM
"Panican" is like one of those jokes I think is gonna hit hard when it's in my mind and then it comes out of my mouth and I immediately regret it.
Reposted by Joshua G. Schraiber
It wasnt about losing tax revenue but rather Albany, being pretentious, had the same anti-elevated track revolt that Berkeley later did. They wanted either a subway or for BART to use I-80. The Mayor felt Marin Ave station would destroy the neighborhood so they pushed it to El Cerrito Plaza.
February 9, 2026 at 8:28 PM
It wasnt about losing tax revenue but rather Albany, being pretentious, had the same anti-elevated track revolt that Berkeley later did. They wanted either a subway or for BART to use I-80. The Mayor felt Marin Ave station would destroy the neighborhood so they pushed it to El Cerrito Plaza.
Reposted by Joshua G. Schraiber
The modern world cannot exist without industrial agriculture and globalized trade. There are numerous countries who do not have the arable land to be food autarkic even if they tried and are forced to import food.
How many of them are you okay with starving to death?
How many of them are you okay with starving to death?
February 9, 2026 at 8:39 PM
The modern world cannot exist without industrial agriculture and globalized trade. There are numerous countries who do not have the arable land to be food autarkic even if they tried and are forced to import food.
How many of them are you okay with starving to death?
How many of them are you okay with starving to death?
Reposted by Joshua G. Schraiber
Whenever you see someone talking about "retvrning to pre-industrial methods of agriculture" you need to bluntly ask them how many people should starve to death to serve this goal.
February 9, 2026 at 8:39 PM
Whenever you see someone talking about "retvrning to pre-industrial methods of agriculture" you need to bluntly ask them how many people should starve to death to serve this goal.
Reposted by Joshua G. Schraiber
I have immense respect for indigenous cultures. However, it is deeply impractical to feed 8+ billion people sustainably and reliably without high-tech industrial agriculture.
Ultimately, this is just reactionary, conservative pastoralism wrapped in leftist framing.
Ultimately, this is just reactionary, conservative pastoralism wrapped in leftist framing.
February 9, 2026 at 8:34 PM
I have immense respect for indigenous cultures. However, it is deeply impractical to feed 8+ billion people sustainably and reliably without high-tech industrial agriculture.
Ultimately, this is just reactionary, conservative pastoralism wrapped in leftist framing.
Ultimately, this is just reactionary, conservative pastoralism wrapped in leftist framing.
Reposted by Joshua G. Schraiber
This. Theories of Trump stealing the midterms that start with assuming control of the House all comes down to a few very close races isn’t really a theory of Trump stealing the midterms.
It’s basically the 2020 plot, which was in one race, not many, and thwarted by Biden winning by multiple states.
It’s basically the 2020 plot, which was in one race, not many, and thwarted by Biden winning by multiple states.
This would be terrifying if control was actually going to come down to a small number of closer races. But it’s not, and nobody frothing into a panic over it will internalize that load bearing part of the speculation.
Over the past three weeks, the "nightmare scenario" for November's midterms has grown more plausible www.vox.com/politics/478...
February 9, 2026 at 7:22 PM
This. Theories of Trump stealing the midterms that start with assuming control of the House all comes down to a few very close races isn’t really a theory of Trump stealing the midterms.
It’s basically the 2020 plot, which was in one race, not many, and thwarted by Biden winning by multiple states.
It’s basically the 2020 plot, which was in one race, not many, and thwarted by Biden winning by multiple states.
They hate all immigrants, even the ones "doing things the right way".
*Green card application in process and work permit, married to US citizen
*Lived in US for 20 years, no criminal record
*In detention for five months with no charge, despite judge approving release
*He disputes ICE claim that he signed forms agreeing to deportation
*Lived in US for 20 years, no criminal record
*In detention for five months with no charge, despite judge approving release
*He disputes ICE claim that he signed forms agreeing to deportation
And here is my story: ‘Absolute hell’: Irishman with valid US work permit held by Ice since September
www.irishtimes.com/world/us/202...
www.irishtimes.com/world/us/202...
February 9, 2026 at 7:11 PM
They hate all immigrants, even the ones "doing things the right way".
Reposted by Joshua G. Schraiber
If it's just the House, you can invoke 14AS3. If you have a Senate majority (possibly including defectors) show up, you can impeach and remove (2/3 of those *present*!).
A large national anti-Trump majority is furious, so Dem-controlled states will recognize the legitimate government.
A large national anti-Trump majority is furious, so Dem-controlled states will recognize the legitimate government.
February 9, 2026 at 7:07 PM
If it's just the House, you can invoke 14AS3. If you have a Senate majority (possibly including defectors) show up, you can impeach and remove (2/3 of those *present*!).
A large national anti-Trump majority is furious, so Dem-controlled states will recognize the legitimate government.
A large national anti-Trump majority is furious, so Dem-controlled states will recognize the legitimate government.
Reposted by Joshua G. Schraiber
Anyway, here's a fun video related to the subject.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9-q...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9-q...
Remy: Cabotage (Beastie Boys Sabotage Parody)
YouTube video by ReasonTV
www.youtube.com
February 9, 2026 at 7:06 PM
Anyway, here's a fun video related to the subject.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9-q...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9-q...
Reposted by Joshua G. Schraiber
Two doses of Recombinant zoster vaccine reduces dementia risk 51% lower risk of dementia (in females > males) even accounting for healthy vacinee bias versus Tdap @natcomms.nature.com
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
February 9, 2026 at 7:06 PM
Two doses of Recombinant zoster vaccine reduces dementia risk 51% lower risk of dementia (in females > males) even accounting for healthy vacinee bias versus Tdap @natcomms.nature.com
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by Joshua G. Schraiber
"The NIGHTMARE scenario has long gone something like this: If [big leap of logic] occurs, & [second leap of logic], then [third big leap of logic], they could order [huge leap of logic], which would logically lead to [leap of logic the size of Jupiter]."
Over the past three weeks, the "nightmare scenario" for November's midterms has grown more plausible www.vox.com/politics/478...
February 9, 2026 at 6:50 PM
"The NIGHTMARE scenario has long gone something like this: If [big leap of logic] occurs, & [second leap of logic], then [third big leap of logic], they could order [huge leap of logic], which would logically lead to [leap of logic the size of Jupiter]."
Reposted by Joshua G. Schraiber
Also makes it much more expensive than it has to be to live in Hawaii, Alaska, and Puerto Rico. HI and AK are always going to be expensive regardless, but Jones Act makes it worse than it has to be.
February 9, 2026 at 7:02 PM
Also makes it much more expensive than it has to be to live in Hawaii, Alaska, and Puerto Rico. HI and AK are always going to be expensive regardless, but Jones Act makes it worse than it has to be.
Reposted by Joshua G. Schraiber
No ferries in the Bay Area. Hawaii has the biggest privately owned ranch in the United States but the highest price/gal on milk. Maine islanders use electric heaters in every room rather than fuel through winter because the utility price is capped vs fuel comes on a boat. Puerto Rico
The Jones Act!
The Jones Act!
The Jones Act is like this strange horrific thing that you realize impacts way more of life than you can imagine, including partially explaining the lack of ferries in the SF Bay!
There are no ferries because you have to use a US-built boat under the (1920s!) Jones Act and the United States essentially stopped building commercial watercraft of any kind. So right there, no ferries.
February 9, 2026 at 7:02 PM
No ferries in the Bay Area. Hawaii has the biggest privately owned ranch in the United States but the highest price/gal on milk. Maine islanders use electric heaters in every room rather than fuel through winter because the utility price is capped vs fuel comes on a boat. Puerto Rico
The Jones Act!
The Jones Act!
Reposted by Joshua G. Schraiber
As long as it costs six figures in fees to build even a single home in California, we're never going to get rents and home prices down to affordable levels. I provide comment:
www.dailynews.com/2026/02/04/e...
www.dailynews.com/2026/02/04/e...
Editorial: California needs local housing fee reform
It’s time to talk about local fees.
www.dailynews.com
February 9, 2026 at 7:00 PM
As long as it costs six figures in fees to build even a single home in California, we're never going to get rents and home prices down to affordable levels. I provide comment:
www.dailynews.com/2026/02/04/e...
www.dailynews.com/2026/02/04/e...
Reposted by Joshua G. Schraiber
“I’m mad I can’t understand Bad Bunny’s lyrics because they’re not in English”
my brother millions of metalheads around the world have been happily listening to incomprehensible Finnish shrieks and Japanese death grunts since we were teens, you’re just boring and racist
my brother millions of metalheads around the world have been happily listening to incomprehensible Finnish shrieks and Japanese death grunts since we were teens, you’re just boring and racist
February 9, 2026 at 5:46 AM
“I’m mad I can’t understand Bad Bunny’s lyrics because they’re not in English”
my brother millions of metalheads around the world have been happily listening to incomprehensible Finnish shrieks and Japanese death grunts since we were teens, you’re just boring and racist
my brother millions of metalheads around the world have been happily listening to incomprehensible Finnish shrieks and Japanese death grunts since we were teens, you’re just boring and racist
The Jones Act is like this strange horrific thing that you realize impacts way more of life than you can imagine, including partially explaining the lack of ferries in the SF Bay!
There are no ferries because you have to use a US-built boat under the (1920s!) Jones Act and the United States essentially stopped building commercial watercraft of any kind. So right there, no ferries.
February 9, 2026 at 7:00 PM
The Jones Act is like this strange horrific thing that you realize impacts way more of life than you can imagine, including partially explaining the lack of ferries in the SF Bay!
Reposted by Joshua G. Schraiber
Another Claude project: a static site that pulls in GWAS SNP data from ensemble, multiple public biobanks, open targets, gtex, eqtl catalog, and OMIM.
sashagusev.github.io/gwas_lookup/
sashagusev.github.io/gwas_lookup/
February 9, 2026 at 6:50 PM
Another Claude project: a static site that pulls in GWAS SNP data from ensemble, multiple public biobanks, open targets, gtex, eqtl catalog, and OMIM.
sashagusev.github.io/gwas_lookup/
sashagusev.github.io/gwas_lookup/
Reposted by Joshua G. Schraiber
This would be terrifying if control was actually going to come down to a small number of closer races. But it’s not, and nobody frothing into a panic over it will internalize that load bearing part of the speculation.
Over the past three weeks, the "nightmare scenario" for November's midterms has grown more plausible www.vox.com/politics/478...
February 9, 2026 at 6:46 PM
This would be terrifying if control was actually going to come down to a small number of closer races. But it’s not, and nobody frothing into a panic over it will internalize that load bearing part of the speculation.
Reposted by Joshua G. Schraiber
Congress should act to categorically exempt statistical agency staff from this schedule.
Statistical agencies by definition do not set policy.
Their only power and purpose is collecting data & publishing credible, informative stats. Without political independence, they can't do this.
Statistical agencies by definition do not set policy.
Their only power and purpose is collecting data & publishing credible, informative stats. Without political independence, they can't do this.
February 9, 2026 at 3:37 PM
Congress should act to categorically exempt statistical agency staff from this schedule.
Statistical agencies by definition do not set policy.
Their only power and purpose is collecting data & publishing credible, informative stats. Without political independence, they can't do this.
Statistical agencies by definition do not set policy.
Their only power and purpose is collecting data & publishing credible, informative stats. Without political independence, they can't do this.
Reposted by Joshua G. Schraiber
My weekly update.
Some good(ish) news.
The pace of NIH grantmaking appears to be picking up.
1/4
Some good(ish) news.
The pace of NIH grantmaking appears to be picking up.
1/4
February 9, 2026 at 5:41 PM
My weekly update.
Some good(ish) news.
The pace of NIH grantmaking appears to be picking up.
1/4
Some good(ish) news.
The pace of NIH grantmaking appears to be picking up.
1/4