Peter du Toit
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peterdutoit.com
Peter du Toit
@peterdutoit.com

I speak about climate futures, mitigation and adaptation in the face of the climate crisis. 🇿🇦

I am a huge fan of ephemeral social media, so my posts delete after 60 days. Content that I want around longer will be on my blog.

https://peterdutoit.com .. more

du Toit is an Afrikaans surname of French origin, originally from François du Toit, a Huguenot who moved to South Africa in 1686. It translates as "of the roof". People with the surname include:Alexander du Toit (1878–1948), South African geologist Anri du Toit aka Yolandi Visser, South African musician Braam du Toit, South African composer Christiaan du Toit (1901–1982), South African military commander Daniel du Toit (1871–1959), South African astronomer Dirk du Toit (1943–2009), South African politician Elize du Toit, South African born, British actress Flooi du Toit (1869–1909), South African cricketer Francois Jacobus du Toit (1897–1961), South African journalist and economist Gaffie du Toit, South African rugby union Jacob Daniël du Toit, South African poet and translator Jané du Toit, Namibian rugby union footballer Lydia Lindeque (1916–1997), South African actor Natalie du Toit, South African swimmer Nick du Toit, South African arms dealer Paul du Toit (1965–2014), South African artist Pieter-Steph du Toit, South African rugby union player Rachel Alida du Toit (1916–1997), South African actor Sarel Petrus du Toit (1864–1930), Second Boer War Boer general Simoné du Toit, South African shot putter Stephanus Jacobus du Toit (1847–1911), South African Afrikaans language pioneer Wikus du Toit, South African actor .. more

Environmental science 54%
Geography 13%
Pinned
Ignore the blah blah blah and remember this:

"Since atmospheric GHGs [which increased by +2.3% in 2024] drive global warming, [this is] ultimately the metric that matters for meeting the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement."

Unless these decline we are on a steady march to hell

#ClimateCrisis

💯 agree with this recommendation whether you are inside or outside the US. Watch this NOW!

There is at least 3 more years of this ahead if not more. Be informed.

Reference is made to the Anti-Autocracy Handbook see zenodo.org/records/1569...

Read it!

Reposted by Du Toit

Go watch it asap!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_gF...
Another brilliant @simonoxfphys.com production
The misinformation situation is worse than you think
YouTube video by Simon Clark
www.youtube.com

Reposted by Du Toit

It took literally more than a year but a few months ago I was finally able to convince my editor that we should stop posting on X. He was worried there would be an outcry if we stoped.

There wasn’t. No one noticed because, thanks to the algorithm, no one was seeing our stuff there anymore anyway.

This map shows the projection of changes in annual precipitation in South Africa at ~1.5°C of heating.

This is already playing out in real-time in December 2025.

Floods in KZN (iol.co.za/news/south...)

Drought in the WC (peterdutoit.com/knys...)
I've put together my predictions for 2026 and 2027 temperatures over at The Climate Brink. I expect 2026 will likely end up similar to 2023 and 2025 at ~1.4C, while 2027 will likely be considerably warmer (conditional on El Nino): www.theclimatebrink....

When an extreme event hits a place that has no built resilience, that place, is more often than not taken below a tipping point from which complete recovery is not possible.

This leads to permanent loss.

We see this playing out everywhere.

news.un.org/en/story...

#ClimateCrisis
Fifty days on, Jamaica struggles to rebuild after Hurricane Melissa’s unprecedented destruction
Fifty days have passed since Hurricane Melissa ravaged Jamaica, leaving behind an unprecedented trail of destruction.
news.un.org

NEW IRI ENSO Forecast (Dec 19) here:

iri.columbia.edu/our...

Basically.

NEW from Hansen et al

"At least a moderate El Nino beginning in 2026 leads us to the projection in Fig. 5, with global temperature reaching a minimum at or above +1.4°C within several months and then rising to a record global temperature of about +1.7°C in 2027."

Source: www.columbia.edu/~je...

Reposted by Du Toit

📣 Coming soon! On 14 January 2026, we will release the Global Climate Highlights 2025 report, our annual summary of global climate conditions for the year 2025, based on the latest data and analysis from #CopernicusClimate. Stay tuned.

More info ⬇️

Unbelievable. This would be a terrible blow to American science, writ large. It would decimate not only climate research, but also the kind of weather, wildfire, and disaster research that has underpinned half a century of progress in prediction, early warning, and increased resilience.
Exclusive: The Trump administration is moving to dismantle the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, according to a senior White House official, taking aim at one of the world's leading climate research labs.

When you bet on the past you lose.

China solidifying its position as the world’s first electrostate. I am sure they cannot believe their good fortune.
Gas-loving Trump cedes electric car market to China
Donald Trump is pushing gas guzzlers over EVs — in spite of climate and cost concerns. China is now set to race further ahead into an electrified automotive future.
www.dw.com

They said they would do this - it’s all there in the Project 2025 document - and now they are.

Absolutely no one should be surprised by this.

77,303,573 Americans voted for this.
An absolute bedrock institution for understanding how the planet works, just civilization-scaled vandalism by the most incurious morons on Earth
An absolute bedrock institution for understanding how the planet works, just civilization-scaled vandalism by the most incurious morons on Earth
Unbelievable. This would be a terrible blow to American science, writ large. It would decimate not only climate research, but also the kind of weather, wildfire, and disaster research that has underpinned half a century of progress in prediction, early warning, and increased resilience.
Exclusive: The Trump administration is moving to dismantle the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, according to a senior White House official, taking aim at one of the world's leading climate research labs.
Trump moves to dismantle major US climate research center in Colorado
The Trump administration is breaking up the National Center for Atmospheric Research, taking aim at one of the world's leading climate research labs.
bit.ly

clearsky.app is your friend in these situations 😉
ClearSky
ClearSky - Bringing information closer to you
clearsky.app

For every 1°C that we heat the atmosphere can hold approximately 7% more water.

Extreme precipitation willl become more frequent putting people living near seasonal rivers at great risk.

We need robust early warning systems for people living near rivers!

youtu.be/93K0ZyfTUPs

#ClimateLiteracy
Flash floods kill dozens in Moroccan town of Safi • FRANCE 24 English
YouTube video by FRANCE 24 English
youtu.be
The new GloSAT temperature dataset extends our observational estimates of global temperature change back to 1781

Blog: climatelabbook.substack.com/p/new-estima...

Paper by Morice et al.: essd.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
New estimates of surface temperature change since the late 18th century
Releasing an observation-based global temperature dataset extending back to 1781
climatelabbook.substack.com

Reposted by Du Toit

Later this week the EU is due to publish its Automotive Package. Why does it matter?

The package will help determine the future of automotive production in Europe – and whether the continent can scale its own battery supply chain.

Here’s what to watch out for 🧵👇

More from the coalition of planet destroyers:

“After the objections of the U.S. official, as well as some from Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia and other oil and gas producing nations, the summary for policymakers language was dropped entirely rather than renegotiated.”
U.S. Helped to Weaken Report at U.N. Environment Talks, Participants Say
American officials joined Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iran in objecting to language on fossils fuels, biodiversity and plastics in a report that was three years in the making.
www.nytimes.com

Reposted by Du Toit

The subtropical thicket is one of South Africa’s most biodiverse yet overlooked ecosystems.

Through spekboom planting, the Thicket Restoration Flagship aims to restore 800,000 hectares of thicket.

Learn more about this #GenerationRestoration effort:
https://ow.ly/k50A50XIGsh

The planet killers are relentless.

This from South Africa as we pass through ~1.5°C
Big win for Shell in South Africa – TopAuto
South Africa’s legacy national oil company, PetroSA, has approved a deal to give Shell a major stake off the country’s west coast.
topauto.co.za

Reposted by Du Toit, Rupert Read

Trump says Europe is useless, weak and dying.

But the Old World is quietly doing a much better job of building a liveable tomorrow than the USA.

Just ask Finland, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands and Portugal.

NEW from the NOAA Climate Prediction Centre

"La Niña is favored to continue for the next month or two, with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely in January-March 2026 (68% chance)

Full details: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.go...

The direction the US is headed will most certainly give rise to underground schools, places where “minds refuse to be chained.”

www.edubloxtutor.com/education-un...

Reposted by Du Toit

And last week I documented even more pollution blasting from Energy Transfer facilities.

Here's another blowdown at the Energy Transfer Compressor Station 176.

In all my years for documenting pollution I can honestly say that in my opinion Energy Transfer is the worst.

youtu.be/gJl4TU5WecY?...

NEW from the JMA:

"The [current] La Niña-like conditions will rapidly weaken until the end of winter. Therefore, it is more likely (80%) that ENSO-neutral conditions will persist until the boreal spring."

Full outlook text: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tc...