Pierre Friedlingstein

@pfriedling.bsky.social

8.2K followers 430 following 460 posts

Born at 321 ppm. Climate & Carbon Cycle Scientist. Prof @UniofExeter Directeur de Recherche @CNRS @GlobalCarbonProject

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Pierre Friedlingstein is Professor and Chair in Mathematical Modelling of the Climate System at the University of Exeter, and Research Director at the Laboratoire de Météorologie dynamique (LMD), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), France. .. more

Environmental science 58%

Geography 17%

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Pierre Friedlingstein @pfriedling.bsky.social · Nov 13

Really sorry for the poor quality of the figures below. They looked OK on my laptop

All figures are available here:
globalcarbonbudget.org/gcb-2024/
GCB Presentation in PDF and PPT format
plus country level emission figures
Also available here :
robbieandrew.github.io/GCB2024/

Reposted by Pierre Friedlingstein

Vert, le média 💚 @vert.eco · 15h

🤝 À l’occasion de la COP21, près de 200 pays s’engageaient pour la 1ère fois à lutter collectivement contre le réchauffement climatique en votant l’Accord de Paris.

10 ans plus tard, lors de l'ouverture de la COP30 sur le climat à Belém, où en sommes-nous ? Le tour en 5 graphiques 👇

Réchauffement, CO2, renouvelables, transport, déforestation : cinq graphs clés, dix ans après l’Accord de Paris sur le climat

Accord mais vain ? À l’occasion de la COP21, le 12 décembre 2015, près de 200 pays s’engageaient pour la première fois à lutter collectivement contre le réchauffement climatique en votant l’Accord de ...

vert.eco

Reposted by Pierre Friedlingstein, Tatiana Ilyina

Veronika Meduna @veronikameduna.bsky.social · 6d

The US is not expected to send high-level representatives to COP30, and many say that’s for the best. Whether humanity bends the emissions curve sufficiently to escape the most dangerous climate impacts now depends on the actions of other big players
www.nature.com/articles/d41...

How to fight climate change without the US: a guide to global action

With the US government absent from the COP30 global climate summit, it will be up to others to avert catastrophe.

www.nature.com

Reposted by Glen P. Peters, Pierre Friedlingstein, Ben Bond‐Lamberty , and 1 more Glen P. Peters, Pierre Friedlingstein, Ben Bond‐Lamberty, Tatiana Ilyina

Pep Canadell @pepcanadell.bsky.social · 6d

As part of the GCP-Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes-2, we recently published the Australasia's CH4 and N2O Budgets. The carbon budget was published in 2023, both papers, led by Yohanna Villalobos and a great team of collaborators.
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

Pierre Friedlingstein @pfriedling.bsky.social · 15d

But yes when compared to France 😉

Pierre Friedlingstein @pfriedling.bsky.social · 15d

Definitely not the best but certainly the slowest.
First high speed train lines (TGV) opened in the early 1980s in France. Meanwhile in the uk … 🚂 … 🙄

Pierre Friedlingstein @pfriedling.bsky.social · 17d

That’s setting the bar very very low!

Reposted by Pierre Friedlingstein, Tom Chevalier

Alexandra Delbot @alexandradelbot.bsky.social · 20d

Une nouvelle étude pointe les faiblesses structurelles de la compensation carbone : bénéfices surestimés, risques de fuite et stockage seulement temporaire du CO₂. Ce système, censé lutter contre la déforestation, peine à prouver son efficacité réelle.

Explications en GIF 🌳

Déforestation : pourquoi la compensation carbone est inefficace

Une nouvelle étude pointe les faiblesses structurelles de la compensation carbone : bénéfices surestimés, effets déplacés et stockage temporaire du CO₂. Ce système, censé lutter contre la déforestatio...

www.radiofrance.fr

Pierre Friedlingstein @pfriedling.bsky.social · 20d

Yep. The 1/99 ratio is from the great John Oliver at @lastweektonight.com

Pierre Friedlingstein @pfriedling.bsky.social · 20d

Looks about right to me. The red spike in 2024 is the very large atmospheric CO₂ growth rate (3.7pmm).

Pierre Friedlingstein @pfriedling.bsky.social · 20d

I was just invited by a French radio to « debate » with a well known French climate denier.
I replied suggesting they invite 90 climate scientists to make it more representative. 😉

Pierre Friedlingstein @pfriedling.bsky.social · 23d

You should read that paper on the ZEC experiments.
There is no clear relationship between ZEC and TCR (Fig 11).
bg.copernicus.org/articles/17/...

Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO2

Abstract. The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global mean temperature expected to occur following the cessation of net CO2 emissions and as such is a critical parameter for calculatin...

bg.copernicus.org

Pierre Friedlingstein @pfriedling.bsky.social · 23d

CO₂ emissions are record high

Pierre Friedlingstein @pfriedling.bsky.social · 23d

Not sure what you mean. We are not comparing the real world to ssp1-2.6 here. Just assessing what happen to the carbon sinks when emissions start to decline (which is not happening yet…).

Pierre Friedlingstein @pfriedling.bsky.social · 23d

That 400 Gt must be coming from a high end scenario (SSP5-8.5?). Not relevant for our discussion where emissions cease or decline rapidly.
IPCC AR6 estimation is 18PgC per degree of warming.
See Box5.1 in AR6 WG1

Pierre Friedlingstein @pfriedling.bsky.social · 23d

When co2 emissions decline both the land and the ocean sinks decline. See for example sinks in SSP1-2.6 scenarios :

Pierre Friedlingstein @pfriedling.bsky.social · 23d

(even if the land sink massively reduced in 2013/2024, El Niño years).

Pierre Friedlingstein @pfriedling.bsky.social · 23d

Indeed but we have no evidence this is already happening now at a planetary scale (even if happening at local scales). As far as we can tell both the land and ocean are still removing about 50% of human CO₂ emissions.

Pierre Friedlingstein @pfriedling.bsky.social · 23d

Or here

www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-wi...

Explainer: Will global warming ‘stop’ as soon as net-zero emissions are reached? - Carbon Brief

Warming is likely to more or less stop once net-zero emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) is reached, meaning humans have the power to choose their climate future.

www.carbonbrief.org

Pierre Friedlingstein @pfriedling.bsky.social · 23d

See this for a more detailed explanation

www.theclimatebrink.com/p/climate-ch...

Stop emissions, stop warming: A climate reality check

Why future warming isn't as "locked in" as you might think

www.theclimatebrink.com

Pierre Friedlingstein @pfriedling.bsky.social · 23d

If we cut CO₂ emissions to zero, atmospheric CO₂ would start to decrease as the land and ocean sinks still operate.
The CO₂ decline would act against the climate system inertia and would massively reduce the committed warming.

Pierre Friedlingstein @pfriedling.bsky.social · 23d

Nice analogy. But it’s a bit more complex. Cutting emissions is not like stopping the ship’s engine. It’s more like reversing the propeller. Acting against the ship’s inertia.
The ship would massively slow down, nearly stop or even slightly reverse.

Pierre Friedlingstein @pfriedling.bsky.social · 23d

Congrats Gavin 🍾

Pierre Friedlingstein @pfriedling.bsky.social · 24d

According to GCB, to be submitted in a couple of weeks it slightly increased in 2024.

Pierre Friedlingstein @pfriedling.bsky.social · 24d

“The likely reason for the record growth between 2023 and 2024 was a large contribution from wildfire emissions and a reduced uptake of CO2 by land and the ocean in 2024 – the warmest year on record, with a strong El Niño. “

The ocean sink actually increases (marginally) during an El Niño …

Pierre Friedlingstein @pfriedling.bsky.social · 24d

Thanks James.
That is quite a strong reaction indeed.
They are actually calling me a criminal 🙄.
I’m not expecting them to provide any publication showing a 1C warming when emission cease…

Pierre Friedlingstein @pfriedling.bsky.social · 24d

Oh cool. I didn’t see that. See you in Bristol then.
Send me a text

Pierre Friedlingstein @pfriedling.bsky.social · 24d

Lesson learned.
They actually hate me. I’m a criminal now because I cite IPCC 🙄

Pierre Friedlingstein @pfriedling.bsky.social · 24d

It is clearly worrying.
Hopefully the land sink will recover in 2025. First indications from atmospheric CO₂ seem to indicate it did. To be confirmed…

Pierre Friedlingstein @pfriedling.bsky.social · 24d

Hansen’s paper is not about zero emissions commitment, it‘s about current concentrations commitment. That is not the same. Zero emissions means decreasing concentration.

Pierre Friedlingstein @pfriedling.bsky.social · 24d

The problem is that you are wrong…
There are no evidence that warming after emissions cease (also called Zero emission commitment, ZEC) would be about +1C.

Best estimate assessed in IPCC AR6 is that ZEC is -0.08C, range [-0.34C to +0.28C].

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