Pierre Friedlingstein
@pfriedling.bsky.social
Born at 321 ppm. Climate & Carbon Cycle Scientist. Prof @UniofExeter Directeur de Recherche @CNRS @GlobalCarbonProject
But yes when compared to France 😉
October 26, 2025 at 12:18 PM
But yes when compared to France 😉
Definitely not the best but certainly the slowest.
First high speed train lines (TGV) opened in the early 1980s in France. Meanwhile in the uk … 🚂 … 🙄
First high speed train lines (TGV) opened in the early 1980s in France. Meanwhile in the uk … 🚂 … 🙄
October 26, 2025 at 12:06 PM
Definitely not the best but certainly the slowest.
First high speed train lines (TGV) opened in the early 1980s in France. Meanwhile in the uk … 🚂 … 🙄
First high speed train lines (TGV) opened in the early 1980s in France. Meanwhile in the uk … 🚂 … 🙄
That’s setting the bar very very low!
October 24, 2025 at 11:17 PM
That’s setting the bar very very low!
Yep. The 1/99 ratio is from the great John Oliver at @lastweektonight.com
October 21, 2025 at 6:52 PM
Yep. The 1/99 ratio is from the great John Oliver at @lastweektonight.com
Looks about right to me. The red spike in 2024 is the very large atmospheric CO₂ growth rate (3.7pmm).
October 21, 2025 at 5:07 PM
Looks about right to me. The red spike in 2024 is the very large atmospheric CO₂ growth rate (3.7pmm).
I was just invited by a French radio to « debate » with a well known French climate denier.
I replied suggesting they invite 90 climate scientists to make it more representative. 😉
I replied suggesting they invite 90 climate scientists to make it more representative. 😉
October 21, 2025 at 4:19 PM
I was just invited by a French radio to « debate » with a well known French climate denier.
I replied suggesting they invite 90 climate scientists to make it more representative. 😉
I replied suggesting they invite 90 climate scientists to make it more representative. 😉
You should read that paper on the ZEC experiments.
There is no clear relationship between ZEC and TCR (Fig 11).
bg.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
There is no clear relationship between ZEC and TCR (Fig 11).
bg.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO2
Abstract. The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global mean temperature expected to occur following the cessation of net CO2 emissions and as such is a critical parameter for calculatin...
bg.copernicus.org
October 18, 2025 at 2:12 PM
You should read that paper on the ZEC experiments.
There is no clear relationship between ZEC and TCR (Fig 11).
bg.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
There is no clear relationship between ZEC and TCR (Fig 11).
bg.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
CO₂ emissions are record high
October 18, 2025 at 2:08 PM
CO₂ emissions are record high
Not sure what you mean. We are not comparing the real world to ssp1-2.6 here. Just assessing what happen to the carbon sinks when emissions start to decline (which is not happening yet…).
October 18, 2025 at 1:55 PM
Not sure what you mean. We are not comparing the real world to ssp1-2.6 here. Just assessing what happen to the carbon sinks when emissions start to decline (which is not happening yet…).
That 400 Gt must be coming from a high end scenario (SSP5-8.5?). Not relevant for our discussion where emissions cease or decline rapidly.
IPCC AR6 estimation is 18PgC per degree of warming.
See Box5.1 in AR6 WG1
IPCC AR6 estimation is 18PgC per degree of warming.
See Box5.1 in AR6 WG1
October 18, 2025 at 1:52 PM
That 400 Gt must be coming from a high end scenario (SSP5-8.5?). Not relevant for our discussion where emissions cease or decline rapidly.
IPCC AR6 estimation is 18PgC per degree of warming.
See Box5.1 in AR6 WG1
IPCC AR6 estimation is 18PgC per degree of warming.
See Box5.1 in AR6 WG1
When co2 emissions decline both the land and the ocean sinks decline. See for example sinks in SSP1-2.6 scenarios :
October 18, 2025 at 1:43 PM
When co2 emissions decline both the land and the ocean sinks decline. See for example sinks in SSP1-2.6 scenarios :
(even if the land sink massively reduced in 2013/2024, El Niño years).
October 18, 2025 at 10:47 AM
(even if the land sink massively reduced in 2013/2024, El Niño years).
Indeed but we have no evidence this is already happening now at a planetary scale (even if happening at local scales). As far as we can tell both the land and ocean are still removing about 50% of human CO₂ emissions.
October 18, 2025 at 10:46 AM
Indeed but we have no evidence this is already happening now at a planetary scale (even if happening at local scales). As far as we can tell both the land and ocean are still removing about 50% of human CO₂ emissions.
If we cut CO₂ emissions to zero, atmospheric CO₂ would start to decrease as the land and ocean sinks still operate.
The CO₂ decline would act against the climate system inertia and would massively reduce the committed warming.
The CO₂ decline would act against the climate system inertia and would massively reduce the committed warming.
October 18, 2025 at 8:04 AM
If we cut CO₂ emissions to zero, atmospheric CO₂ would start to decrease as the land and ocean sinks still operate.
The CO₂ decline would act against the climate system inertia and would massively reduce the committed warming.
The CO₂ decline would act against the climate system inertia and would massively reduce the committed warming.
Nice analogy. But it’s a bit more complex. Cutting emissions is not like stopping the ship’s engine. It’s more like reversing the propeller. Acting against the ship’s inertia.
The ship would massively slow down, nearly stop or even slightly reverse.
The ship would massively slow down, nearly stop or even slightly reverse.
October 18, 2025 at 8:02 AM
Nice analogy. But it’s a bit more complex. Cutting emissions is not like stopping the ship’s engine. It’s more like reversing the propeller. Acting against the ship’s inertia.
The ship would massively slow down, nearly stop or even slightly reverse.
The ship would massively slow down, nearly stop or even slightly reverse.
Congrats Gavin 🍾
October 18, 2025 at 7:25 AM
Congrats Gavin 🍾
According to GCB, to be submitted in a couple of weeks it slightly increased in 2024.
October 17, 2025 at 5:17 PM
According to GCB, to be submitted in a couple of weeks it slightly increased in 2024.
“The likely reason for the record growth between 2023 and 2024 was a large contribution from wildfire emissions and a reduced uptake of CO2 by land and the ocean in 2024 – the warmest year on record, with a strong El Niño. “
The ocean sink actually increases (marginally) during an El Niño …
The ocean sink actually increases (marginally) during an El Niño …
October 17, 2025 at 5:07 PM
“The likely reason for the record growth between 2023 and 2024 was a large contribution from wildfire emissions and a reduced uptake of CO2 by land and the ocean in 2024 – the warmest year on record, with a strong El Niño. “
The ocean sink actually increases (marginally) during an El Niño …
The ocean sink actually increases (marginally) during an El Niño …
Thanks James.
That is quite a strong reaction indeed.
They are actually calling me a criminal 🙄.
I’m not expecting them to provide any publication showing a 1C warming when emission cease…
That is quite a strong reaction indeed.
They are actually calling me a criminal 🙄.
I’m not expecting them to provide any publication showing a 1C warming when emission cease…
October 17, 2025 at 3:26 PM
Thanks James.
That is quite a strong reaction indeed.
They are actually calling me a criminal 🙄.
I’m not expecting them to provide any publication showing a 1C warming when emission cease…
That is quite a strong reaction indeed.
They are actually calling me a criminal 🙄.
I’m not expecting them to provide any publication showing a 1C warming when emission cease…