@poliakoff.bsky.social
I use this to scream into the void. Apologies.
Pinned
I have been ruminating on something like this for a while. Finally put pen to paper (or finger to touchscreen).
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I think the most likely outcome is that Dems win in 26 and 28, fix like sixty percent of Trump‘s damage by 2030, and promptly lose the 2030 midterms because the average voter has the memory of a goldfish.
New poll: In 2024, low-engagement voters went for Trump over Harris by 11 percentage points. But now they disapprove of the way he's handling the presidency by 13. They have moved 25 points against Trump — 2x as large as the shift for high-knowledge voters www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trump-lost...
Trump has lost the voters who weren’t paying attention in 2024
The least-engaged Americans have swung 25 points against him since 2024 — about twice the shift among everyone else. Trump has flattened the engagement gap.
www.gelliottmorris.com
February 12, 2026 at 7:30 PM
I think the most likely outcome is that Dems win in 26 and 28, fix like sixty percent of Trump‘s damage by 2030, and promptly lose the 2030 midterms because the average voter has the memory of a goldfish.
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Every-fucking-body knows this could turn into a shooting war, the entire point is that we still have a lot of options before that happens and we should exercise them fully before breaking that glass case
February 10, 2026 at 4:59 AM
Every-fucking-body knows this could turn into a shooting war, the entire point is that we still have a lot of options before that happens and we should exercise them fully before breaking that glass case
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IMO a big thing to worry about is Trumpy lone-wolves "working towards the Führer".
Like, maybe some ICE agent, knowing that he has "absolute immunity" if he's saving the country and such, storms a registrar's office demanding all the mail-in ballots (since Mr. Trump made mail-in voting illegal!).
Like, maybe some ICE agent, knowing that he has "absolute immunity" if he's saving the country and such, storms a registrar's office demanding all the mail-in ballots (since Mr. Trump made mail-in voting illegal!).
1) I agree that Trump's people aren't capable or clever enough to "steal the midterms".
2) I think they are brazen and witless enough to TRY to do it in an utterly hamfisted way that ends in real violence.
2) I think they are brazen and witless enough to TRY to do it in an utterly hamfisted way that ends in real violence.
February 9, 2026 at 10:32 PM
IMO a big thing to worry about is Trumpy lone-wolves "working towards the Führer".
Like, maybe some ICE agent, knowing that he has "absolute immunity" if he's saving the country and such, storms a registrar's office demanding all the mail-in ballots (since Mr. Trump made mail-in voting illegal!).
Like, maybe some ICE agent, knowing that he has "absolute immunity" if he's saving the country and such, storms a registrar's office demanding all the mail-in ballots (since Mr. Trump made mail-in voting illegal!).
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"prohibition in the united states" has this time lapse map that switches from folksy banjo music to ominous industrial sci-fi for the 15 seconds when alcohol was illegal nationwide
February 9, 2026 at 12:13 AM
"prohibition in the united states" has this time lapse map that switches from folksy banjo music to ominous industrial sci-fi for the 15 seconds when alcohol was illegal nationwide
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a little bit of fiction:
It’s the 41st millennium and things are fine.
You can see the cities on the Moon from the surface of the Earth. (You can’t see the Martian colonies without a telescope or a satellite feed, obviously.) We’ve been to all of the planets and most of the asteroids.
It’s the 41st millennium and things are fine.
You can see the cities on the Moon from the surface of the Earth. (You can’t see the Martian colonies without a telescope or a satellite feed, obviously.) We’ve been to all of the planets and most of the asteroids.
February 8, 2026 at 8:21 PM
a little bit of fiction:
It’s the 41st millennium and things are fine.
You can see the cities on the Moon from the surface of the Earth. (You can’t see the Martian colonies without a telescope or a satellite feed, obviously.) We’ve been to all of the planets and most of the asteroids.
It’s the 41st millennium and things are fine.
You can see the cities on the Moon from the surface of the Earth. (You can’t see the Martian colonies without a telescope or a satellite feed, obviously.) We’ve been to all of the planets and most of the asteroids.
My mourning? For Adonais.
My Maneuver? Corbomite.
My Time? Naked.
January 31, 2026 at 4:22 AM
My mourning? For Adonais.
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Old school #DataViz? In a way.
This WA Geological Survey plate map shows the time of first ashfall from Mount St. Helens on May 18, 1980.
Isochron lines show the ash cloud’s eastward push across the Pacific Northwest, stretching into the morning hours of Monday, May 19.
This WA Geological Survey plate map shows the time of first ashfall from Mount St. Helens on May 18, 1980.
Isochron lines show the ash cloud’s eastward push across the Pacific Northwest, stretching into the morning hours of Monday, May 19.
January 31, 2026 at 3:49 AM
Old school #DataViz? In a way.
This WA Geological Survey plate map shows the time of first ashfall from Mount St. Helens on May 18, 1980.
Isochron lines show the ash cloud’s eastward push across the Pacific Northwest, stretching into the morning hours of Monday, May 19.
This WA Geological Survey plate map shows the time of first ashfall from Mount St. Helens on May 18, 1980.
Isochron lines show the ash cloud’s eastward push across the Pacific Northwest, stretching into the morning hours of Monday, May 19.
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It makes you sound crazy to say this out loud, but it's becoming increasingly clear that the United States government has been effectively toppled by a group of overt pedophiles
Barely a few hours after President Donald Trump named him as the next nominee to chair the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh was revealed to be in the Jeffrey Epstein sex trafficking case files.
Trump's Fed chair pick named in Epstein files just hours after his nomination
Barely a few hours after President Donald Trump named him as the next nominee to chair the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh was revealed to be in the Jeffrey Epstein sex trafficking case files.According to The New Republic, "Warsh’s name appears to be on an emailed list of guests to 'St. Barth’s Christm...
bit.ly
January 31, 2026 at 12:15 AM
It makes you sound crazy to say this out loud, but it's becoming increasingly clear that the United States government has been effectively toppled by a group of overt pedophiles
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So QAnon spent years spreading conspiracy theories that the government was run by a cabal of elite pedophiles and it turns out they supported the actual cabal of elite pedophiles to get into power and destroy democracy.
January 30, 2026 at 11:05 PM
So QAnon spent years spreading conspiracy theories that the government was run by a cabal of elite pedophiles and it turns out they supported the actual cabal of elite pedophiles to get into power and destroy democracy.
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it continues to be hilarious that that QAnon and Pizzagate believers constructed entire code languages that the secret pedophile cabal use to communicate and then every actual Epstein email is just:
Dear Jeffrey,
I love the girls you got for me, very nubile. Can't wait to see you at RapeFest 2012!
Dear Jeffrey,
I love the girls you got for me, very nubile. Can't wait to see you at RapeFest 2012!
January 31, 2026 at 1:40 AM
it continues to be hilarious that that QAnon and Pizzagate believers constructed entire code languages that the secret pedophile cabal use to communicate and then every actual Epstein email is just:
Dear Jeffrey,
I love the girls you got for me, very nubile. Can't wait to see you at RapeFest 2012!
Dear Jeffrey,
I love the girls you got for me, very nubile. Can't wait to see you at RapeFest 2012!
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i once bought a new blazer for a schitts creek panel, and when i walked into the green room, catherine o'hara complimented me on it, and also noted that i had forgotten to cut all the threads off the vents.
and then she leaned in and said, "it's because you're going to return it, isn't it"
and then she leaned in and said, "it's because you're going to return it, isn't it"
January 30, 2026 at 8:28 PM
i once bought a new blazer for a schitts creek panel, and when i walked into the green room, catherine o'hara complimented me on it, and also noted that i had forgotten to cut all the threads off the vents.
and then she leaned in and said, "it's because you're going to return it, isn't it"
and then she leaned in and said, "it's because you're going to return it, isn't it"
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This is kind of a big one. Those crews with the highest amount of ops training and focus as well as recent combat experience are headed across the pond.
10/
10/
January 30, 2026 at 2:11 AM
This is kind of a big one. Those crews with the highest amount of ops training and focus as well as recent combat experience are headed across the pond.
10/
10/
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The Jedi wouldn't interest Doctor Crusher much, apart from doing some scans to see if she could detect the source of her powers. But if one of them died and came back to the Enterprise a force ghost? The janitorial crewman would be doing triple duty drying the floors all of a sudden.
January 11, 2025 at 11:20 AM
The Jedi wouldn't interest Doctor Crusher much, apart from doing some scans to see if she could detect the source of her powers. But if one of them died and came back to the Enterprise a force ghost? The janitorial crewman would be doing triple duty drying the floors all of a sudden.
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The Jedi would try to confront Q, who would just turn them into frogs for 10 hours and be like "haha this is what I think of your magic space powers" and then leave and the Jedi would be so embarrassed they wouldn't leave Ten Forward for like a week
January 3, 2025 at 11:20 AM
The Jedi would try to confront Q, who would just turn them into frogs for 10 hours and be like "haha this is what I think of your magic space powers" and then leave and the Jedi would be so embarrassed they wouldn't leave Ten Forward for like a week
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Just want to point out, sharing Stancil's updates and also some of the stories he did with journalists was a super easy way for me to point people that aren't terminally online towards getting involved in anti-ICE activism. It was very valuable.
Okay so unfortunately I’ve been removed from rapid response networks, at least in my immediate area. I think even alerting you of this would be deemed a violation of principles but given how much I’ve talked about it I do feel the need to say what’s up.
January 30, 2026 at 12:37 AM
Just want to point out, sharing Stancil's updates and also some of the stories he did with journalists was a super easy way for me to point people that aren't terminally online towards getting involved in anti-ICE activism. It was very valuable.
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She'd be on the next plane. She'd break up with JD via text from the airport.
January 29, 2026 at 8:00 PM
She'd be on the next plane. She'd break up with JD via text from the airport.
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NEW: “I mean, is this a Fort Sumter?” Tim Walz asked
@isaacstanleybecker.bsky.social today. “It’s a physical assault,” Walz told him. “It’s an armed force that’s assaulting, that’s killing my constituents, my citizens.”
www.theatlantic.com/politics/202...
@isaacstanleybecker.bsky.social today. “It’s a physical assault,” Walz told him. “It’s an armed force that’s assaulting, that’s killing my constituents, my citizens.”
www.theatlantic.com/politics/202...
January 29, 2026 at 2:31 AM
NEW: “I mean, is this a Fort Sumter?” Tim Walz asked
@isaacstanleybecker.bsky.social today. “It’s a physical assault,” Walz told him. “It’s an armed force that’s assaulting, that’s killing my constituents, my citizens.”
www.theatlantic.com/politics/202...
@isaacstanleybecker.bsky.social today. “It’s a physical assault,” Walz told him. “It’s an armed force that’s assaulting, that’s killing my constituents, my citizens.”
www.theatlantic.com/politics/202...
Three tickets to Melania, please.
January 29, 2026 at 2:25 AM
Three tickets to Melania, please.
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One ticket to Melania, please.
January 29, 2026 at 2:16 AM
One ticket to Melania, please.
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One of the big differences between Democratic leadership today and, say, 2006 is that in 2006 they were the left wing of the party and now they are, at best, at the center
January 29, 2026 at 1:49 AM
One of the big differences between Democratic leadership today and, say, 2006 is that in 2006 they were the left wing of the party and now they are, at best, at the center
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"why can't I just vote for good things once and then have politics stop"
- a bluesky story
- a bluesky story
January 29, 2026 at 12:55 AM
"why can't I just vote for good things once and then have politics stop"
- a bluesky story
- a bluesky story
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Look at these beautiful people.
I'm starting to think the Trumpist mastery of propaganda is failing them. The DHS agents posing this way makes it look like they're ashamed of themselves.
January 28, 2026 at 11:56 PM
Look at these beautiful people.
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His dad lived to be 93! As long as he has any executive function he will use it to cling to power!
January 28, 2026 at 11:56 PM
His dad lived to be 93! As long as he has any executive function he will use it to cling to power!
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Jesus Christ you freak, they’re just my neighbors
January 29, 2026 at 12:52 AM
Jesus Christ you freak, they’re just my neighbors
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“are you scared of a fucking whistle dawg” has been knocking around my head all day
one of the agents said “okay we know” when we were whistling so i leaned in and whistled louder and he threatened to pepper spray me. i then said “are you scared of a fucking whistle dawg” and he very meekly said “no i’m not scared of a whistle”
January 28, 2026 at 10:38 PM
“are you scared of a fucking whistle dawg” has been knocking around my head all day