Patrick Chovanec
@prchovanec.bsky.social
Private sector economist. Former professor at China's Tsinghua University and Columbia SIPA. Author of “Cleared for the Option: A Year Learning to Fly”, now available on Amazon. Visit me at http://patrickchovanec.com
Some of this is a function of (still) relatively low interest rates. But factoring this in, the equity risk premium (ERP) has still dipped below (3.9%) its historical average (4.2%) for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis. (During the dot-com bubble, ERP got all the way down to 2%.)
November 11, 2025 at 4:40 AM
Some of this is a function of (still) relatively low interest rates. But factoring this in, the equity risk premium (ERP) has still dipped below (3.9%) its historical average (4.2%) for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis. (During the dot-com bubble, ERP got all the way down to 2%.)
Reposted by Patrick Chovanec
an underrated part of this turducken of garbage is Elon posting an image of the Odyssey while discussing the Iliad, but it's all so terribly, terribly pathetic
*maximum alpha at 1.25x speed* continuously lives on in my head, unfortunately.
November 11, 2025 at 1:48 AM
an underrated part of this turducken of garbage is Elon posting an image of the Odyssey while discussing the Iliad, but it's all so terribly, terribly pathetic
The only political issue in America today is whether the President should be allowed to rule as a dictator. Everything else is secondary.
November 10, 2025 at 9:37 PM
The only political issue in America today is whether the President should be allowed to rule as a dictator. Everything else is secondary.
95% of people who buy fire insurance never file a claim for their house burning down! What a ripoff!
Tell me you don’t understand risk pools without telling me you don’t understand risk pools
November 10, 2025 at 9:24 PM
95% of people who buy fire insurance never file a claim for their house burning down! What a ripoff!
The y/y rate of inflation the month Trump took office was +3.0%. The y/y rate of inflation in September was +3.0%. In what universe is this “down”?
COLLINS: When Trump says grocery prices are down, what numbers is he basing that off given it's not true?
HASSETT: Inflation is down
C: But grocery prices are up
H: Not everything. Egg prices are down. Why haven't you covered egg prices?
C: We certainly have. But grocery prices are up about 1.4%
HASSETT: Inflation is down
C: But grocery prices are up
H: Not everything. Egg prices are down. Why haven't you covered egg prices?
C: We certainly have. But grocery prices are up about 1.4%
November 10, 2025 at 8:43 PM
The y/y rate of inflation the month Trump took office was +3.0%. The y/y rate of inflation in September was +3.0%. In what universe is this “down”?
Reposted by Patrick Chovanec
Reposted by Patrick Chovanec
New:
On The Gateway Pundit's podcast yesterday, Stewart Rhodes announced he's relaunching the Oath Keepers
He also urged Trump to “call us up as a militia" & "order us all to come together in our counties under his command."
www.mediamatters.org/oath-keepers...
On The Gateway Pundit's podcast yesterday, Stewart Rhodes announced he's relaunching the Oath Keepers
He also urged Trump to “call us up as a militia" & "order us all to come together in our counties under his command."
www.mediamatters.org/oath-keepers...
![STEWART RHODES (FOUNDER, OATH KEEPERS): And one other thing I want to say is that President Trump, as commander in chief, always has absolute authority to call all of us up as the militia because every one of us — in federal statues defining the militia, it's every able-bodied male from age 17-45. And for us veterans, it goes up to age 64 because of our prior training and experience.
Right now, under federal statutes, President Trump can call us up as the militia if he sees it necessary, especially for three purposes: to repel invasions, to suppress insurrections, and to execute the laws of the union. And right now, we see all three of those in play.
...
And the militia is all of us. So the National Guard is part of the militia, which is why it's completely lawful for him to use the National Guard as he has, and he should do more of that, I think, across the country.
...
He could just say given the circumstances of an invasion, insurrection, and resistance against federal law being being enforced, I'm calling up the militia, ordering all the men to come together [in] every county, put the veterans in charge of training and organizing all the other men and just have them stand too and await his orders. He can do that and I think he should do that. And so that's what I'll be advocating for from him. So from the bottom, from down the rank and file, we can let President Trump know that we're ready to serve, encourage him to do that, call us up as a militia, order us all to come together in our counties under his command, which gives you complete legal sanction to do what you're doing.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:af7tqcetuyt352aolf3znlxe/bafkreialm4skuozqobejpd6vx4m6kuwsgtidxmmxvj3ftcff6otiuyohiy@jpeg)
November 10, 2025 at 4:54 PM
New:
On The Gateway Pundit's podcast yesterday, Stewart Rhodes announced he's relaunching the Oath Keepers
He also urged Trump to “call us up as a militia" & "order us all to come together in our counties under his command."
www.mediamatters.org/oath-keepers...
On The Gateway Pundit's podcast yesterday, Stewart Rhodes announced he's relaunching the Oath Keepers
He also urged Trump to “call us up as a militia" & "order us all to come together in our counties under his command."
www.mediamatters.org/oath-keepers...
“The taxes were illegal but it’s just too much money for the government to give back” sounds like something you would have been tarred and feathered for saying in 1773.
November 10, 2025 at 8:36 PM
“The taxes were illegal but it’s just too much money for the government to give back” sounds like something you would have been tarred and feathered for saying in 1773.
Reposted by Patrick Chovanec
I really don't know how the Supreme Court thinks about these things, but it seems like a stretch to claim on one hand we can give $2,000 to almost every American but we can't repay tariffs because it's too much money.
November 10, 2025 at 8:21 PM
I really don't know how the Supreme Court thinks about these things, but it seems like a stretch to claim on one hand we can give $2,000 to almost every American but we can't repay tariffs because it's too much money.
Impose illegal taxes, win incredibly stupid prizes.
Trump claims the U.S. would need to repay $2 trillion if the Supreme Court overturned his tariffs. He says that covers "tariff revenue and investments," which presumably includes the deals from Japan, Korea, etc. Credible estimates of tariff revenue are less than 10% of that.
November 10, 2025 at 8:34 PM
Impose illegal taxes, win incredibly stupid prizes.
Reposted by Patrick Chovanec
Here's a story about the family whose 1-year-old girl was pepper-sprayed yesterday by federal agents. www.chicagotribune.com/2025/11/09/c...
Pepper-sprayed Berwyn family rattled after getting caught up in federal blitz
Southwest Side politicians condemned Saturday’s pepper spraying and the federal sweep of Little Village as “state-sponsored terrorism” at a news conference Sunday.
www.chicagotribune.com
November 10, 2025 at 12:07 AM
Here's a story about the family whose 1-year-old girl was pepper-sprayed yesterday by federal agents. www.chicagotribune.com/2025/11/09/c...
Reposted by Patrick Chovanec
Some of the president's biggest supporters — farmers and factory workers — have suffered the most from his misguided trade war. (via Bloomberg Opinion)
Tariffs Are Hurting the People They’re Meant to Help
The recent trade truce struck between the US and China is welcome news, but it will hardly erase the damage tariffs are still inflicting on American consumers and workers, including two groups who have strongly backed the president: farmers and factory workers.
bloom.bg
November 10, 2025 at 8:30 PM
Some of the president's biggest supporters — farmers and factory workers — have suffered the most from his misguided trade war. (via Bloomberg Opinion)
It’s not the “economic team” who is responsible. This is what the President wants, and it’s what he’s getting.
November 10, 2025 at 8:32 PM
It’s not the “economic team” who is responsible. This is what the President wants, and it’s what he’s getting.
Reposted by Patrick Chovanec
So far as I can tell, the biggest differentiator right now is not necessarily on specific policies, but between people who think we are in the midst of an authoritarian takeover and those who do not.
November 10, 2025 at 6:49 PM
So far as I can tell, the biggest differentiator right now is not necessarily on specific policies, but between people who think we are in the midst of an authoritarian takeover and those who do not.
Reposted by Patrick Chovanec
The Democratic Party
November 9, 2025 at 10:17 PM
The Democratic Party
Thank you, more of this please.
Q: So Dr Oz said that--
JEFFRIES: Who? Nobody who is serious in this country takes Dr Oz seriously.
JEFFRIES: Who? Nobody who is serious in this country takes Dr Oz seriously.
November 10, 2025 at 8:06 PM
Thank you, more of this please.
Reposted by Patrick Chovanec
Democratic People's Republic of America, here we come!
Trump's son makes the case he's the 'rightful heir to MAGA' as speculation about 2028 grows
www.alternet.org/donald-trump...
As he wipes the Blow-dust off his nose!
www.alternet.org/donald-trump...
As he wipes the Blow-dust off his nose!
Trump's son makes the case he's the 'rightful heir to MAGA' as speculation about 2028 grows
In their latest look at how the 2028 presidential election is shaping up on the Republican side of things, the Washington Post analyzes the early field, but says there's room for 'some surprises.'The ...
www.alternet.org
November 10, 2025 at 7:44 AM
Democratic People's Republic of America, here we come!
this is bad, right?
“The shift under Mr. Patel has struck directly at the Five Eyes relationship through the removal of senior agents who spent years fighting Islamic extremists or blunting counterintelligence threats alongside operatives from allied countries.”
F.B.I. Director Is Said to Have Made a Pledge to Head of MI5, Then Broken It
www.nytimes.com
November 10, 2025 at 6:30 PM
this is bad, right?
Bam.
Say whatever you want about Mitch McConnell, but I can say with confidence that if the roles were reversed he wouldn’t budge an inch in the same position. Because he is actually competent at political maneuvering.
November 10, 2025 at 6:29 PM
Bam.
Oh, now it all suddenly becomes clear.
November 10, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Oh, now it all suddenly becomes clear.
Me on Tuesday: Well, I'm not going to like a lot of what our new mayor does, but at least his election victory will stiffen Democratic spines vs Trump.
Today:
Today:
a man wearing a plaid shirt and a blue vest is standing with his hands on his hips .
ALT: a man wearing a plaid shirt and a blue vest is standing with his hands on his hips .
media.tenor.com
November 10, 2025 at 6:11 PM
Me on Tuesday: Well, I'm not going to like a lot of what our new mayor does, but at least his election victory will stiffen Democratic spines vs Trump.
Today:
Today:
Senate Democrats brought a knife to a gunfight.
Losers.
Losers.
November 10, 2025 at 6:08 PM
Senate Democrats brought a knife to a gunfight.
Losers.
Losers.
Trump agreeing to undo some of the bad and illegal things he did during the shutdown is not a concession. Just like him lowering tariffs from 100% to 15% is not a concession.
November 10, 2025 at 6:06 PM
Trump agreeing to undo some of the bad and illegal things he did during the shutdown is not a concession. Just like him lowering tariffs from 100% to 15% is not a concession.
"the shutdown gave him more power"
In the short-run. But he was shooting himself in the foot. You fools let him off the hook.
In the short-run. But he was shooting himself in the foot. You fools let him off the hook.
November 10, 2025 at 5:40 PM
"the shutdown gave him more power"
In the short-run. But he was shooting himself in the foot. You fools let him off the hook.
In the short-run. But he was shooting himself in the foot. You fools let him off the hook.
"You got your socialism in my nationalism"
"You got your nationalism in my socialism!"
Two great tastes in one extreme ideology, which I feel like we've seen before.
"You got your nationalism in my socialism!"
Two great tastes in one extreme ideology, which I feel like we've seen before.
"After Zohran Mamdani’s victory, Republicans are fearmongering about Democrats turning socialist. Meanwhile, Donald Trump is busy taking stakes in private companies and ordering them around"--my latest column.
www.newyorker.com/news/the-fin...
www.newyorker.com/news/the-fin...
Socialism, But Make It Trump
After Zohran Mamdani’s victory, Republicans are fearmongering about Democrats turning socialist. Meanwhile, Donald Trump is busy taking stakes in private companies and ordering them around.
www.newyorker.com
November 10, 2025 at 4:42 PM
"You got your socialism in my nationalism"
"You got your nationalism in my socialism!"
Two great tastes in one extreme ideology, which I feel like we've seen before.
"You got your nationalism in my socialism!"
Two great tastes in one extreme ideology, which I feel like we've seen before.