Lawrence McKay
@lawrencemckay.bsky.social
Lecturer in Comparative Politics at the University of Reading - urban-rural divides, political trust, public opinion, UK/W Europe. Sometimes music/film/F1. Professional Simpsons reference overuser.
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
🚨 NEW in @bjpols.bsky.social : When Partygate hit Westminster, trust in Scottish politicians increased. Our experiments reveal a "contrast effect" - scandals at one level can make the other look better by comparison. Who lost most trust in Westminster? Scottish unionists. Read now #OpenAccess 👇
November 11, 2025 at 9:00 AM
🚨 NEW in @bjpols.bsky.social : When Partygate hit Westminster, trust in Scottish politicians increased. Our experiments reveal a "contrast effect" - scandals at one level can make the other look better by comparison. Who lost most trust in Westminster? Scottish unionists. Read now #OpenAccess 👇
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
canada-election.pages.dev This is my election map of Canada by polling district - interested what you think!
Canadian Election Results 2021-2025
Interactive map showing Canadian federal election results and vote swing analysis between 2021 and 2025
canada-election.pages.dev
November 10, 2025 at 6:24 PM
canada-election.pages.dev This is my election map of Canada by polling district - interested what you think!
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
"While testing one dimension at a time can yield simple results, those effects may not generalise to richer, real-world contexts."
Read our new POAL Methods Briefs on Conjoint Experiments from Thomas Robinson!
Link: www.poal.co.uk/research/met...
Read our new POAL Methods Briefs on Conjoint Experiments from Thomas Robinson!
Link: www.poal.co.uk/research/met...
Public Opinion Analytics Lab
The website of the Public Opinion Analytics Lab
www.poal.co.uk
November 10, 2025 at 8:47 AM
"While testing one dimension at a time can yield simple results, those effects may not generalise to richer, real-world contexts."
Read our new POAL Methods Briefs on Conjoint Experiments from Thomas Robinson!
Link: www.poal.co.uk/research/met...
Read our new POAL Methods Briefs on Conjoint Experiments from Thomas Robinson!
Link: www.poal.co.uk/research/met...
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
Last Friday, new English Indices of Deprivation were released for the first time since 2019, measuring relative deprivation in 33,755 areas of England across multiple domains. How do these geographic disparities relate to voting patterns in the UK’s last General Election? A short thread 🧵
November 3, 2025 at 8:41 AM
Last Friday, new English Indices of Deprivation were released for the first time since 2019, measuring relative deprivation in 33,755 areas of England across multiple domains. How do these geographic disparities relate to voting patterns in the UK’s last General Election? A short thread 🧵
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
Were officials right to give Hadush Kebatu, the asylum seeker convicted of sexual assault, £500 to speed up his deportation?
Preferable to give him £500 directly, ensuring quick deportation: 42%
Preferable not to give him cash, even deportation delayed and more expensive: 23%
Something else: 20%
Preferable to give him £500 directly, ensuring quick deportation: 42%
Preferable not to give him cash, even deportation delayed and more expensive: 23%
Something else: 20%
October 30, 2025 at 4:49 PM
Were officials right to give Hadush Kebatu, the asylum seeker convicted of sexual assault, £500 to speed up his deportation?
Preferable to give him £500 directly, ensuring quick deportation: 42%
Preferable not to give him cash, even deportation delayed and more expensive: 23%
Something else: 20%
Preferable to give him £500 directly, ensuring quick deportation: 42%
Preferable not to give him cash, even deportation delayed and more expensive: 23%
Something else: 20%
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
Latest @thehousemag.bsky.social column, on the politics of pints.
www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...
www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...
The Professor Will See You Now: Having A Pint
Lessons in political science. This week: having a pint
www.politicshome.com
October 29, 2025 at 9:14 AM
Latest @thehousemag.bsky.social column, on the politics of pints.
www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...
www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...
Really insightful research and interview here:
Alternatively, you can listen to me discuss it with @anooshc.bsky.social on the @newstatesman1913.bsky.social podcast today.
End of thread! Sorry it was such a long one, but a lot in there.
open.spotify.com/episode/3e4L...
End of thread! Sorry it was such a long one, but a lot in there.
open.spotify.com/episode/3e4L...
Can Labour afford to raise taxes?
open.spotify.com
October 29, 2025 at 9:14 AM
Really insightful research and interview here:
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
Three Northern regions since 1950. Labour's overperformance in the North West is a relatively recent phenomenon, whereas in the North East it peaked in 1997
October 22, 2025 at 3:42 PM
Three Northern regions since 1950. Labour's overperformance in the North West is a relatively recent phenomenon, whereas in the North East it peaked in 1997
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
It’s too bad that “the speech” is mostly remembered for Joe Biden plagiarizing it bc Kinnock was really cooking
October 22, 2025 at 2:33 AM
It’s too bad that “the speech” is mostly remembered for Joe Biden plagiarizing it bc Kinnock was really cooking
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
Five parties within 11 percent of each other with a plurality based electoral system, Britain? Five? That's insane.
Our latest Westminster voting intention (19-20 Oct) has the Greens on their highest figure ever recorded by YouGov
Reform UK: 26% (-1 from 12-13 Oct)
Labour: 20% (=)
Conservatives: 17% (=)
Lib Dems: 15% (-1)
Greens: 15% (+2)
SNP: 4% (+1)
yougov.co.uk/topics/polit...
Reform UK: 26% (-1 from 12-13 Oct)
Labour: 20% (=)
Conservatives: 17% (=)
Lib Dems: 15% (-1)
Greens: 15% (+2)
SNP: 4% (+1)
yougov.co.uk/topics/polit...
October 21, 2025 at 11:55 AM
Five parties within 11 percent of each other with a plurality based electoral system, Britain? Five? That's insane.
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
Super happy to see this out in @jeppjournal.bsky.social 🎉🎉
Citizens in 🥜-regions closer to Russia became more supportive of EU defence, enlargement & foreign policy after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine (exception: energy policy)
By @giorgiomalet.bsky.social and @svenhegewald.bsky.social
🔗 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
By @giorgiomalet.bsky.social and @svenhegewald.bsky.social
🔗 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
October 21, 2025 at 6:30 AM
Super happy to see this out in @jeppjournal.bsky.social 🎉🎉
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
Great to speak to @greenmirandahere.bsky.social for today's FT Inside Politics about the latest finding from our politics of (im)patience project, w/ @karlpike.bsky.social and @philipjcowley.bsky.social.
www.ft.com/content/e984...
www.ft.com/content/e984...
Labour sheds support from impatient Britons
Research shows party losing voters who want results now, with women more likely to prioritise short-term gains
www.ft.com
October 20, 2025 at 9:20 AM
Great to speak to @greenmirandahere.bsky.social for today's FT Inside Politics about the latest finding from our politics of (im)patience project, w/ @karlpike.bsky.social and @philipjcowley.bsky.social.
www.ft.com/content/e984...
www.ft.com/content/e984...
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
New post just out:
"On the edge"
On my unexpected week in hospital and five things I learnt about the state of the NHS.
(Free to read)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/o...
"On the edge"
On my unexpected week in hospital and five things I learnt about the state of the NHS.
(Free to read)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/o...
On the edge
My week in the NHS
open.substack.com
October 19, 2025 at 8:14 AM
New post just out:
"On the edge"
On my unexpected week in hospital and five things I learnt about the state of the NHS.
(Free to read)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/o...
"On the edge"
On my unexpected week in hospital and five things I learnt about the state of the NHS.
(Free to read)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/o...
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
Why do rustbelts vote radical right? Studying the German Ruhr area, @nilsblossey.bsky.social, @lstoetze.bsky.social and I show: it’s not just about deindustrialization, but also about the original industrialization. Where coal is buried deeper and mining started later, the AfD is stronger today 1/12
October 17, 2025 at 2:29 PM
Why do rustbelts vote radical right? Studying the German Ruhr area, @nilsblossey.bsky.social, @lstoetze.bsky.social and I show: it’s not just about deindustrialization, but also about the original industrialization. Where coal is buried deeper and mining started later, the AfD is stronger today 1/12
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
Nano-targeting is not a persuasive weapon: it is a dissuasion and polarization weapon. New paper out osf.io/preprints/so... with the brilliant Thomas Robinson, @simonhix.bsky.social and @fresejoris.bsky.social – the first to quantify the perverse incentives/inherent democratic dangers of this tech.
OSF
osf.io
October 16, 2025 at 7:45 AM
Nano-targeting is not a persuasive weapon: it is a dissuasion and polarization weapon. New paper out osf.io/preprints/so... with the brilliant Thomas Robinson, @simonhix.bsky.social and @fresejoris.bsky.social – the first to quantify the perverse incentives/inherent democratic dangers of this tech.
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
Analysis in @thetimes.com by @leaskyd.bsky.social & Anna Dowell of the sharp decline in British identity uncovered by the Scottish Social Attitudes survey.
With comment from Sir John Curtice on the polarising of Scottish politics and from myself on the decoupling of Scottish and British identities:
With comment from Sir John Curtice on the polarising of Scottish politics and from myself on the decoupling of Scottish and British identities:
Why Scots are losing their British identity
With only a quarter of respondents to the Scottish Social Attitudes survey identifying with Britishness, Scotland faces a generational political split
www.thetimes.com
October 12, 2025 at 11:38 AM
Analysis in @thetimes.com by @leaskyd.bsky.social & Anna Dowell of the sharp decline in British identity uncovered by the Scottish Social Attitudes survey.
With comment from Sir John Curtice on the polarising of Scottish politics and from myself on the decoupling of Scottish and British identities:
With comment from Sir John Curtice on the polarising of Scottish politics and from myself on the decoupling of Scottish and British identities:
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
Really interesting- and, I think, welcome- to see MPs sharing this kind of data about casework.
Casework is largely invisible (other than to the constituents it helps!) compared to what MPs do in the Commons chamber but is a huge part of MPs’ workload, and it’s really hard to get robust data on it
Casework is largely invisible (other than to the constituents it helps!) compared to what MPs do in the Commons chamber but is a huge part of MPs’ workload, and it’s really hard to get robust data on it
October 10, 2025 at 7:57 AM
Really interesting- and, I think, welcome- to see MPs sharing this kind of data about casework.
Casework is largely invisible (other than to the constituents it helps!) compared to what MPs do in the Commons chamber but is a huge part of MPs’ workload, and it’s really hard to get robust data on it
Casework is largely invisible (other than to the constituents it helps!) compared to what MPs do in the Commons chamber but is a huge part of MPs’ workload, and it’s really hard to get robust data on it
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
I really don't know what to do about a situation where a plurality of the group that (rightly!) takes up most government spending thinks that it is unrepresented in politics.
October 9, 2025 at 10:09 AM
I really don't know what to do about a situation where a plurality of the group that (rightly!) takes up most government spending thinks that it is unrepresented in politics.
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
📢 Call for Papers for EPSS 2026 conference in Belfast is out: epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
This week we’ll feature three sections to provide more information about the conference.
🔝 This time: Public Opinion, Political Communication & Political Methodology
🧵
This week we’ll feature three sections to provide more information about the conference.
🔝 This time: Public Opinion, Political Communication & Political Methodology
🧵
Call for Papers | EPSS Belfast 2026 Conference
Submit your abstract or full paper for EPSS Belfast 2026. Share cutting‑edge political science research, network with peers & contribute to academic impact.
epssnet.org
October 9, 2025 at 9:48 AM
📢 Call for Papers for EPSS 2026 conference in Belfast is out: epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
This week we’ll feature three sections to provide more information about the conference.
🔝 This time: Public Opinion, Political Communication & Political Methodology
🧵
This week we’ll feature three sections to provide more information about the conference.
🔝 This time: Public Opinion, Political Communication & Political Methodology
🧵
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
New from Institute of Jewish Policy Research: most comprehensive study of Jewish attitudes
> Rising experience + perception of antisemitism:feel less safe
> Growing (now majority) criticism of military campaign in Gaza; rising attachment to Israel
(July 2025 fieldwork)
www.jpr.org.uk/reports/two-...
> Rising experience + perception of antisemitism:feel less safe
> Growing (now majority) criticism of military campaign in Gaza; rising attachment to Israel
(July 2025 fieldwork)
www.jpr.org.uk/reports/two-...
Two years after the October 7 attacks: British Jewish views on antisemitism, Israel and Jewish life
www.jpr.org.uk
October 4, 2025 at 12:15 PM
New from Institute of Jewish Policy Research: most comprehensive study of Jewish attitudes
> Rising experience + perception of antisemitism:feel less safe
> Growing (now majority) criticism of military campaign in Gaza; rising attachment to Israel
(July 2025 fieldwork)
www.jpr.org.uk/reports/two-...
> Rising experience + perception of antisemitism:feel less safe
> Growing (now majority) criticism of military campaign in Gaza; rising attachment to Israel
(July 2025 fieldwork)
www.jpr.org.uk/reports/two-...
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
UK members of parliament overestimate the time available to mitigate climate change, with notable partisan differences, and a similar lack of knowledge is evident among the public in Britain, Canada, Chile, and Germany.
New paper with @lucasgeese.bsky.social at @commsearth.nature.com
UK MPs + publics in Britain, Canada, Chile & Germany underestimated the urgency of peaking global GHG emissions when surveyed in 2023.
@tyndallcentre.bsky.social @cast-centre.bsky.social
@climateuea.bsky.social
rdcu.be/eI4J3
UK MPs + publics in Britain, Canada, Chile & Germany underestimated the urgency of peaking global GHG emissions when surveyed in 2023.
@tyndallcentre.bsky.social @cast-centre.bsky.social
@climateuea.bsky.social
rdcu.be/eI4J3
Publics and UK parliamentarians underestimate the urgency of peaking global greenhouse gas emissions
Communications Earth & Environment - UK members of parliament overestimate the time available to mitigate climate change, with notable partisan differences, and a similar lack of knowledge is...
rdcu.be
October 2, 2025 at 4:08 PM
UK members of parliament overestimate the time available to mitigate climate change, with notable partisan differences, and a similar lack of knowledge is evident among the public in Britain, Canada, Chile, and Germany.
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
Just out in @cpsjournal.bsky.social 🚨
Together with @dschraff.bsky.social, I ask: Is the urban–rural divide in Europe affectively polarised?
👉 journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
1/7 🧵
Together with @dschraff.bsky.social, I ask: Is the urban–rural divide in Europe affectively polarised?
👉 journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
1/7 🧵
Is the Urban-Rural Divide Affectively Polarised? Comparative Evidence from Nine European Countries - Sven Hegewald, Dominik Schraff, 2025
Recent studies in the United States and Europe have documented a growing divergence in voting behaviour and political attitudes between cities and the countrysi...
journals.sagepub.com
October 1, 2025 at 6:58 AM
Just out in @cpsjournal.bsky.social 🚨
Together with @dschraff.bsky.social, I ask: Is the urban–rural divide in Europe affectively polarised?
👉 journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
1/7 🧵
Together with @dschraff.bsky.social, I ask: Is the urban–rural divide in Europe affectively polarised?
👉 journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
1/7 🧵
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
fuck it we ball; give us Eric Adams as US ambassador to the UK, heaven knows we need the comic relief
They need to give him some made-up title like US Ambassador of Standing on Business and just send him around the world doing fake official shit so he can keep giving sound bites. We can’t lose his voice at a time like this.
September 28, 2025 at 8:33 PM
fuck it we ball; give us Eric Adams as US ambassador to the UK, heaven knows we need the comic relief
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
There’s an even bigger conspiracy and it goes even deeper. It turns out that well over half of Parliament and thousands of councillors around the country are all members of a leftist organisation called “The Labour Party”.
September 27, 2025 at 9:44 AM
There’s an even bigger conspiracy and it goes even deeper. It turns out that well over half of Parliament and thousands of councillors around the country are all members of a leftist organisation called “The Labour Party”.