Lawrence McKay
@lawrencemckay.bsky.social
Lecturer in Comparative Politics at the University of Reading - urban-rural divides, political trust, public opinion, UK/W Europe. Sometimes music/film/F1. Professional Simpsons reference overuser.
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
Our latest Mile End Institute/Savanta London Poll is out!
Labour - 31%
Reform - 19%
Greens - 18%
Cons - 17%
LD - 13%
@standard.co.uk.web.brid.gy @mileendinstitute.bsky.social @savanta.bsky.social
www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...
Labour - 31%
Reform - 19%
Greens - 18%
Cons - 17%
LD - 13%
@standard.co.uk.web.brid.gy @mileendinstitute.bsky.social @savanta.bsky.social
www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...
Labour hits record low in London with Tories 4th behind Greens and Reform, new poll
EXCLUSIVE: Just 31% of Londoners now say they would vote for Sir Keir Starmer’s party, according to a Savanta survey, down from 43% at the 2024 General Election
www.standard.co.uk
January 6, 2026 at 9:52 AM
Our latest Mile End Institute/Savanta London Poll is out!
Labour - 31%
Reform - 19%
Greens - 18%
Cons - 17%
LD - 13%
@standard.co.uk.web.brid.gy @mileendinstitute.bsky.social @savanta.bsky.social
www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...
Labour - 31%
Reform - 19%
Greens - 18%
Cons - 17%
LD - 13%
@standard.co.uk.web.brid.gy @mileendinstitute.bsky.social @savanta.bsky.social
www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
But what if Maduro’s involvement in the drug trade was an “official act”?
January 3, 2026 at 3:32 PM
But what if Maduro’s involvement in the drug trade was an “official act”?
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
Our @yougov.co.uk data journalism extraordinaire Matt Smith has compiled all news tracker results from 2025 into this stunning graphic
This tells us so much about what 'cuts through', how news cycles evolve, and what grabs attention re: flash moments vs ongoing stories
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
This tells us so much about what 'cuts through', how news cycles evolve, and what grabs attention re: flash moments vs ongoing stories
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
December 31, 2025 at 11:45 AM
Our @yougov.co.uk data journalism extraordinaire Matt Smith has compiled all news tracker results from 2025 into this stunning graphic
This tells us so much about what 'cuts through', how news cycles evolve, and what grabs attention re: flash moments vs ongoing stories
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
This tells us so much about what 'cuts through', how news cycles evolve, and what grabs attention re: flash moments vs ongoing stories
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
My father in law has done his traditional Christmas Day Facebook post to remind us of the true meaning of the day:
Reminding us of the greatest Christmas of all, December 25th, 1989, when they shot that bastard Ceaușescu
Reminding us of the greatest Christmas of all, December 25th, 1989, when they shot that bastard Ceaușescu
December 25, 2025 at 9:34 AM
My father in law has done his traditional Christmas Day Facebook post to remind us of the true meaning of the day:
Reminding us of the greatest Christmas of all, December 25th, 1989, when they shot that bastard Ceaușescu
Reminding us of the greatest Christmas of all, December 25th, 1989, when they shot that bastard Ceaușescu
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
What happens if they hold a general election and everyone comes second?
All I want for Christmas is First Past the Post Electoral Chaos
Westminster Voting Intention:
RFM: 25% (-3)
LAB: 20% (+2)
CON: 19% (+2)
LDM: 15% (+1)
GRN: 15% (-2)
SNP: 3% (-1)
Via @yougov.co.uk, 21-22 Dec.
Changes w/ 14-15 Dec.
RFM: 25% (-3)
LAB: 20% (+2)
CON: 19% (+2)
LDM: 15% (+1)
GRN: 15% (-2)
SNP: 3% (-1)
Via @yougov.co.uk, 21-22 Dec.
Changes w/ 14-15 Dec.
December 23, 2025 at 9:55 AM
What happens if they hold a general election and everyone comes second?
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
The most-read PQ article of 2025 was....
.... Drumroll....
'The Most Disproportionate UK Election: How the Labour Party Doubled its Seat Share with a 1.6Point Increase in Vote Share in 2024'
Congrats, @martamiori.bsky.social @profjanegreen.bsky.social!
.... Drumroll....
'The Most Disproportionate UK Election: How the Labour Party Doubled its Seat Share with a 1.6Point Increase in Vote Share in 2024'
Congrats, @martamiori.bsky.social @profjanegreen.bsky.social!
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
December 22, 2025 at 10:26 AM
The most-read PQ article of 2025 was....
.... Drumroll....
'The Most Disproportionate UK Election: How the Labour Party Doubled its Seat Share with a 1.6Point Increase in Vote Share in 2024'
Congrats, @martamiori.bsky.social @profjanegreen.bsky.social!
.... Drumroll....
'The Most Disproportionate UK Election: How the Labour Party Doubled its Seat Share with a 1.6Point Increase in Vote Share in 2024'
Congrats, @martamiori.bsky.social @profjanegreen.bsky.social!
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
Now read this and the big buried lead in it is that Streeting comes out of a Customs Union.
He also comes out challenging the Govt/PM in at least 4 different ways which, erm, well not many Cabinet ministers get away with that
He also comes out challenging the Govt/PM in at least 4 different ways which, erm, well not many Cabinet ministers get away with that
Tell me you’re positioning for a leadership bid without telling me :….Taxes too high as opposed to poorly structured?
December 21, 2025 at 10:21 AM
Now read this and the big buried lead in it is that Streeting comes out of a Customs Union.
He also comes out challenging the Govt/PM in at least 4 different ways which, erm, well not many Cabinet ministers get away with that
He also comes out challenging the Govt/PM in at least 4 different ways which, erm, well not many Cabinet ministers get away with that
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
I genuinely think this is one of the most interesting things about politics in England. The polls and actual elections all tell us 'Labour are super-unpopular and shedding votes to another challenger in their bloc' but they tell us different things about which challenger that actually *is*.
🚨 BREAKING NEWS: Liberal Democrats have won more local by-elections than any other party in 2025.
In real elections up and down the country, only the Lib Dems are taking on Reform and winning.
In real elections up and down the country, only the Lib Dems are taking on Reform and winning.
December 19, 2025 at 3:43 PM
I genuinely think this is one of the most interesting things about politics in England. The polls and actual elections all tell us 'Labour are super-unpopular and shedding votes to another challenger in their bloc' but they tell us different things about which challenger that actually *is*.
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
📝Our new @instituteforgovernment.org.uk report with @jackpannell.bsky.social & @emmanorris.bsky.social out today sets out out the underlying problems with the way public inquiries are established
We argue ministers need better support to make informed decisions about how an inquiry should be set up
We argue ministers need better support to make informed decisions about how an inquiry should be set up
How can the government ensure inquiries are set up to succeed? | Institute for Government
Early decisions can set inquiries off on the wrong path.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
December 19, 2025 at 10:53 AM
📝Our new @instituteforgovernment.org.uk report with @jackpannell.bsky.social & @emmanorris.bsky.social out today sets out out the underlying problems with the way public inquiries are established
We argue ministers need better support to make informed decisions about how an inquiry should be set up
We argue ministers need better support to make informed decisions about how an inquiry should be set up
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
oh wow Starmer's fucked
Merry Christmas, Keir Starmer: despite everything, you’re still the best man for the job | Simon Jenkins
Merry Christmas, Keir Starmer: despite everything, you’re still the best man for the job | Simon Jenkins
Rumours of the prime minister’s demise are premature. Yes, the polls look bad – but these days they reflect little more than voters’ passing whims, says Guardian columnist Simon Jenkins
www.theguardian.com
December 19, 2025 at 11:21 AM
oh wow Starmer's fucked
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
Here's the actual number from just after the statement. It was as well attended as anything else in Parliament today. The top image is PMQs. The only other times you see anything like that are close votes. And this wasn't even a division.
December 18, 2025 at 7:43 PM
Here's the actual number from just after the statement. It was as well attended as anything else in Parliament today. The top image is PMQs. The only other times you see anything like that are close votes. And this wasn't even a division.
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
An old favourite - “I never truly feel the Christmas spirit until I see the "Tony Blair being held back from attacking you in the pub" card”
December 19, 2025 at 7:15 AM
An old favourite - “I never truly feel the Christmas spirit until I see the "Tony Blair being held back from attacking you in the pub" card”
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
This is going to be such a problem for academics of the future. I got so much good gear from the Conservative Party Archive in the Bod in Oxford. But there’ll be no such rich pickings going forward.
The Covid Inquiry revealed that there were ‘substantive discussions’ of important policy decisions via texts.
Frequent use of WhatsApp undermines transparency, and decreases the quality of decisions.
By @benworthy.bsky.social & @mrosenbaum.bsky.social
Frequent use of WhatsApp undermines transparency, and decreases the quality of decisions.
By @benworthy.bsky.social & @mrosenbaum.bsky.social
Government by WhatsApp? Covid, Transparency and Government by Text
The Covid Inquiry revealed that there were ‘substantive discussions’ of important policy decisions through texts and messages. Is this ever acceptable?
politicalquarterly.org.uk
December 17, 2025 at 4:33 PM
This is going to be such a problem for academics of the future. I got so much good gear from the Conservative Party Archive in the Bod in Oxford. But there’ll be no such rich pickings going forward.
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
🧵 Thread on new research on gender gaps in “don’t know” responses
Some of you will know that my stellar coauthors @hannahbunting.bsky.social @cerifowler.bsky.social @jess-smith.bsky.social @annasanders.bsky.social & I have been working on a large-scale project on “don’t know” responses in surveys.
Some of you will know that my stellar coauthors @hannahbunting.bsky.social @cerifowler.bsky.social @jess-smith.bsky.social @annasanders.bsky.social & I have been working on a large-scale project on “don’t know” responses in surveys.
December 17, 2025 at 11:38 AM
🧵 Thread on new research on gender gaps in “don’t know” responses
Some of you will know that my stellar coauthors @hannahbunting.bsky.social @cerifowler.bsky.social @jess-smith.bsky.social @annasanders.bsky.social & I have been working on a large-scale project on “don’t know” responses in surveys.
Some of you will know that my stellar coauthors @hannahbunting.bsky.social @cerifowler.bsky.social @jess-smith.bsky.social @annasanders.bsky.social & I have been working on a large-scale project on “don’t know” responses in surveys.
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
💥📉 A fresh bombshell poll in Hungary by a reputable pollster shows Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz trailing opposition leader Péter Magyar’s TISZA, 36–53. Despite throwing everything at Magyar in recent weeks, the gap has only widened.
Just four months to go until Hungary's parliamentary election.
Just four months to go until Hungary's parliamentary election.
December 17, 2025 at 10:32 AM
💥📉 A fresh bombshell poll in Hungary by a reputable pollster shows Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz trailing opposition leader Péter Magyar’s TISZA, 36–53. Despite throwing everything at Magyar in recent weeks, the gap has only widened.
Just four months to go until Hungary's parliamentary election.
Just four months to go until Hungary's parliamentary election.
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
New paper, with @johnkenny.bsky.social, shows politicisation of climate change attitudes in Europe from 2016 to 2022 increased mostly because of greater climate consciousness among those on the left rather than less among those on the right:
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Europeans’ climate consciousness: increased yet more politicised
As climate change became more important to voters and political parties in the late 2010s in Europe, this paper asks whether aspects of public opinion on the issue also became more politicised, in ...
www.tandfonline.com
December 17, 2025 at 10:20 AM
New paper, with @johnkenny.bsky.social, shows politicisation of climate change attitudes in Europe from 2016 to 2022 increased mostly because of greater climate consciousness among those on the left rather than less among those on the right:
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
New 🏴 data paints picture of consolidation within two blocs: a Welsh-identifying/progressive bloc (with Plaid as largest party) and a British-identifying/conservative bloc (with Reform as largest).
Adds to evidence that 2026 is shaping up to be 2-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK 🧵
Adds to evidence that 2026 is shaping up to be 2-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK 🧵
Bwriadau pleidleisio Senedd / Senedd Voting Intention (YouGov - nid MRP/ not MRP method) / (28/11 - 10/12)
PC: 33%
REF: 30%
LLAF/LAB: 10%
CEID/CON: 10%
GWYRDD/GRN: 9%
DEM RHYDD/LD: 6%
ERAILL/OTH: 2%
N=1,891
Ein dadansoddiad ni / Our analysis: blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
PC: 33%
REF: 30%
LLAF/LAB: 10%
CEID/CON: 10%
GWYRDD/GRN: 9%
DEM RHYDD/LD: 6%
ERAILL/OTH: 2%
N=1,891
Ein dadansoddiad ni / Our analysis: blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Consolidation, Not Conversion: Understanding Wales’s Ongoing Realignment
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
December 17, 2025 at 8:16 AM
New 🏴 data paints picture of consolidation within two blocs: a Welsh-identifying/progressive bloc (with Plaid as largest party) and a British-identifying/conservative bloc (with Reform as largest).
Adds to evidence that 2026 is shaping up to be 2-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK 🧵
Adds to evidence that 2026 is shaping up to be 2-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK 🧵
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
I would like to let you know that I am reviewing Sarkozy's prison memoir for the Observer and reading it is making me lose my mind, he wrote a 213-page book about being in prison for twenty (20) days, the minutiae of it is exactly as agonising as you'd imagine, fucking *hell*
December 16, 2025 at 5:20 PM
I would like to let you know that I am reviewing Sarkozy's prison memoir for the Observer and reading it is making me lose my mind, he wrote a 213-page book about being in prison for twenty (20) days, the minutiae of it is exactly as agonising as you'd imagine, fucking *hell*
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
I do like how a loadbearing part of the 'Badenoch is turning it around' is 'after a year, and while flirting with fourth, she has talked, briefly, about the economy an area of Conservative strength rather than launching paper-thin interventions on topics where the Tory brand is weak'.
The right-wing media vibeflation around Badenoch is noise. The Tories are polling in the doldrums against a world-beatingly unpopular government led by a prime minister who is detested by everyone except a few Bluesky clowndorks. Ed Miliband's Labour had ten-point leads. Come the fuck on already.
December 16, 2025 at 11:34 AM
I do like how a loadbearing part of the 'Badenoch is turning it around' is 'after a year, and while flirting with fourth, she has talked, briefly, about the economy an area of Conservative strength rather than launching paper-thin interventions on topics where the Tory brand is weak'.
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
Yesterday, I gave an internal presentation at Cardiff Uni on the relationship between ideology and third-sector employment, using the British Election Study panel and the stacked DiD method. It's with @lawrencemckay.bsky.social and we seem to have results; look out for it at 2026 conferences!
December 11, 2025 at 4:51 PM
Yesterday, I gave an internal presentation at Cardiff Uni on the relationship between ideology and third-sector employment, using the British Election Study panel and the stacked DiD method. It's with @lawrencemckay.bsky.social and we seem to have results; look out for it at 2026 conferences!
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
One of the reasons that emergence of ‘cold spots’ of subject provision matters: 52% of 18 year olds from the most disadvantaged backgrounds (the most deprived quintile in the Indices of Multiple Deprivation) plan to live at home when they go the university
www.thetimes.com/article/22cc...
www.thetimes.com/article/22cc...
Nearly a third of university 18-year-olds will live at home
According to figures from Ucas, a record 89,510 18-year-olds with university offers plan to live at home when they begin their studies this autumn
www.thetimes.com
December 10, 2025 at 9:23 PM
One of the reasons that emergence of ‘cold spots’ of subject provision matters: 52% of 18 year olds from the most disadvantaged backgrounds (the most deprived quintile in the Indices of Multiple Deprivation) plan to live at home when they go the university
www.thetimes.com/article/22cc...
www.thetimes.com/article/22cc...
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
From October 2025 -
Educational Networks, Social Closure, and Cleavage Stabilization - cup.org/47ifc4B
"we show that educational divides are diminished in the presence of countervailing networks"
- @davidattewell6.bsky.social & @dpzollinger.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
Educational Networks, Social Closure, and Cleavage Stabilization - cup.org/47ifc4B
"we show that educational divides are diminished in the presence of countervailing networks"
- @davidattewell6.bsky.social & @dpzollinger.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
December 10, 2025 at 6:40 AM
From October 2025 -
Educational Networks, Social Closure, and Cleavage Stabilization - cup.org/47ifc4B
"we show that educational divides are diminished in the presence of countervailing networks"
- @davidattewell6.bsky.social & @dpzollinger.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
Educational Networks, Social Closure, and Cleavage Stabilization - cup.org/47ifc4B
"we show that educational divides are diminished in the presence of countervailing networks"
- @davidattewell6.bsky.social & @dpzollinger.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
🎁 Christmas has come early for @ammassarisofia.bsky.social & me with the publication of our article "The geography of the party on the ground: Local branches in Italy and Sweden in the late twentieth century" in @politicalgeography.bsky.social:
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
The geography of the party on the ground: Local branches in Italy and Sweden in the late twentieth century
The idea that the presence of Western European political parties at grassroots level rose and fell in the twentieth century is central to some of the …
www.sciencedirect.com
December 8, 2025 at 1:13 AM
🎁 Christmas has come early for @ammassarisofia.bsky.social & me with the publication of our article "The geography of the party on the ground: Local branches in Italy and Sweden in the late twentieth century" in @politicalgeography.bsky.social:
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
These guys are absolutely the funniest sporting body in the world. The IOC is more evil, the FIA is more incompetent, but nothing beats FIFA for shameless corrupt pandering. No notes.
December 6, 2025 at 2:16 AM
These guys are absolutely the funniest sporting body in the world. The IOC is more evil, the FIA is more incompetent, but nothing beats FIFA for shameless corrupt pandering. No notes.
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
The line here that made my ears prick up (and should really spook Labour) is the third one (that we need “fair and managed” migration). That’s not the answer of someone who has come to get his 12 per cent. That’s a much more “no, when I say I want to replace Labour, I’m not coming to play” line.
Zack Polanski, "Labour are a government of cowards because you won't tell people the truth about migration"
"Migration is a positive thing for our country"
"We need migration"
"We need fair and managed migration"
"And that's what will change this conversation"
*huge clap* #BBCQT
"Migration is a positive thing for our country"
"We need migration"
"We need fair and managed migration"
"And that's what will change this conversation"
*huge clap* #BBCQT
December 5, 2025 at 6:15 PM
The line here that made my ears prick up (and should really spook Labour) is the third one (that we need “fair and managed” migration). That’s not the answer of someone who has come to get his 12 per cent. That’s a much more “no, when I say I want to replace Labour, I’m not coming to play” line.