Lawrence McKay
@lawrencemckay.bsky.social
Lecturer in Comparative Politics at the University of Reading - urban-rural divides, political trust, public opinion, UK/W Europe. Sometimes music/film/F1. Professional Simpsons reference overuser.
"If this is the stuff dreams are made of /
No wonder I feel like I'm floating on air"
Incredible show from post-punk/goth legends The Chameleons @ Electric Ballroom
No wonder I feel like I'm floating on air"
Incredible show from post-punk/goth legends The Chameleons @ Electric Ballroom
November 15, 2025 at 1:11 AM
"If this is the stuff dreams are made of /
No wonder I feel like I'm floating on air"
Incredible show from post-punk/goth legends The Chameleons @ Electric Ballroom
No wonder I feel like I'm floating on air"
Incredible show from post-punk/goth legends The Chameleons @ Electric Ballroom
Nice analysis - similar conclusion to research with @jwfurlong.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social. We find the deprivation gradient on Labour support weakened a bit in 2024 - might reflect weakening support in some cities with a lot of deprivation. But still quite strong!
November 3, 2025 at 8:53 AM
Nice analysis - similar conclusion to research with @jwfurlong.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social. We find the deprivation gradient on Labour support weakened a bit in 2024 - might reflect weakening support in some cities with a lot of deprivation. But still quite strong!
Basically correlation is the tightness of the fit between two variables. In this case proportions with a particular characteristic in an area, and the vote share for different parties. It doesn't tell you the proportion in a given group voting for X party - you'd need surveys for that
July 4, 2025 at 9:26 AM
Basically correlation is the tightness of the fit between two variables. In this case proportions with a particular characteristic in an area, and the vote share for different parties. It doesn't tell you the proportion in a given group voting for X party - you'd need surveys for that
To give a little taster - here's the top 10 for Reform:
July 3, 2025 at 2:19 PM
To give a little taster - here's the top 10 for Reform:
Try this? ropercenter.cornell.edu/esrc-project
Graph is Most Important Problem data, showing the % naming immigration by year
Graph is Most Important Problem data, showing the % naming immigration by year
May 6, 2025 at 5:41 PM
Try this? ropercenter.cornell.edu/esrc-project
Graph is Most Important Problem data, showing the % naming immigration by year
Graph is Most Important Problem data, showing the % naming immigration by year
Very 'New Zealand's 4th best folk-parody duo', that
May 6, 2025 at 2:35 PM
Very 'New Zealand's 4th best folk-parody duo', that
Come read the article some are calling "the 5th trending political science paper of last week"
May 6, 2025 at 2:33 PM
Come read the article some are calling "the 5th trending political science paper of last week"
This continues right into the national low point of the 2024 election - as @jwfurlong.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social and I found in a recent article onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
(red here = 'hotspots' of Tory overperformance, blue = opposite)
(red here = 'hotspots' of Tory overperformance, blue = opposite)
May 2, 2025 at 5:03 PM
This continues right into the national low point of the 2024 election - as @jwfurlong.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social and I found in a recent article onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
(red here = 'hotspots' of Tory overperformance, blue = opposite)
(red here = 'hotspots' of Tory overperformance, blue = opposite)
When planning this we didn't imagine that urban-rural divides would become so relevant in national politics! Our paper suggests this messaging - and links to campaign groups - might help with ruralites but @lhaffert.bsky.social finds that it may backfire with urbanites (4/5) shorturl.at/5cmQA
April 29, 2025 at 11:38 AM
When planning this we didn't imagine that urban-rural divides would become so relevant in national politics! Our paper suggests this messaging - and links to campaign groups - might help with ruralites but @lhaffert.bsky.social finds that it may backfire with urbanites (4/5) shorturl.at/5cmQA
Out now (OA) in @electoralstudies.bsky.social. Do people in rural areas want politicians offering stronger representation to rural areas - as opposed to just their local area? Yes - based an original conjoint experiment in the UK (1/5)
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
April 29, 2025 at 11:38 AM
Out now (OA) in @electoralstudies.bsky.social. Do people in rural areas want politicians offering stronger representation to rural areas - as opposed to just their local area? Yes - based an original conjoint experiment in the UK (1/5)
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Great work by @profjanegreen.bsky.social, Geoff Evans and Zac Grant. Labour losing voters from feelings of economic insecurity, and perceptions that Labour is handling the issue badly/not taking it seriously enough. Really interesting report which should be read in full:
shorturl.at/G5je4
shorturl.at/G5je4
February 25, 2025 at 9:29 AM
Great work by @profjanegreen.bsky.social, Geoff Evans and Zac Grant. Labour losing voters from feelings of economic insecurity, and perceptions that Labour is handling the issue badly/not taking it seriously enough. Really interesting report which should be read in full:
shorturl.at/G5je4
shorturl.at/G5je4
Please bring whatever's left on Weds!
February 24, 2025 at 8:37 PM
Please bring whatever's left on Weds!
Yep - paywalled, but the key finding is that local govt is basically always trusted more in W Europe and elsewhere it's much more varied. (We haven't looked at trends for local govt, though).
February 13, 2025 at 3:34 PM
Yep - paywalled, but the key finding is that local govt is basically always trusted more in W Europe and elsewhere it's much more varied. (We haven't looked at trends for local govt, though).
This looks about right to me!
Having looked in the BES for myself, about 70% of the 2019 non-voters didn't vote despite their party preferences moving way left. So maybe turnout is part of the issue for the UK left (contra Shor's stuff in the US)?
Having looked in the BES for myself, about 70% of the 2019 non-voters didn't vote despite their party preferences moving way left. So maybe turnout is part of the issue for the UK left (contra Shor's stuff in the US)?
January 6, 2025 at 5:51 PM
This looks about right to me!
Having looked in the BES for myself, about 70% of the 2019 non-voters didn't vote despite their party preferences moving way left. So maybe turnout is part of the issue for the UK left (contra Shor's stuff in the US)?
Having looked in the BES for myself, about 70% of the 2019 non-voters didn't vote despite their party preferences moving way left. So maybe turnout is part of the issue for the UK left (contra Shor's stuff in the US)?
Yes I think so. This might be the best question. They will be under-represented in the sample, but there should still be a decent amount.
January 5, 2025 at 5:44 PM
Yes I think so. This might be the best question. They will be under-represented in the sample, but there should still be a decent amount.
Great to see our study of GE24 out in PQ (all credit to @jwfurlong.bsky.social for analysis and maps!)
With Reform garnering more and more hype going into the New Year, our conclusion seems very relevant:
With Reform garnering more and more hype going into the New Year, our conclusion seems very relevant:
December 28, 2024 at 10:11 PM
Great to see our study of GE24 out in PQ (all credit to @jwfurlong.bsky.social for analysis and maps!)
With Reform garnering more and more hype going into the New Year, our conclusion seems very relevant:
With Reform garnering more and more hype going into the New Year, our conclusion seems very relevant:
Here's a puzzle: why is pro-Trump swing concentrated in rural areas, if the key swing demographic is Hispanics?
November 6, 2024 at 1:13 PM
Here's a puzzle: why is pro-Trump swing concentrated in rural areas, if the key swing demographic is Hispanics?
'While Trump lost some support in rural areas in 2020, he returned to full strength there in 2024' - striking finding from the exit polls
www.cnn.com/interactive/...
www.cnn.com/interactive/...
November 6, 2024 at 1:13 PM
'While Trump lost some support in rural areas in 2020, he returned to full strength there in 2024' - striking finding from the exit polls
www.cnn.com/interactive/...
www.cnn.com/interactive/...
Backlash over the budget clearly building in the farming community. But threats of electoral punishment are weak, when the median Labour constituency is only .2% farmers (Census 2021) and only ~10% (!) voted Labour in 2024 (BES data - own analysis)
November 1, 2024 at 11:33 AM
Backlash over the budget clearly building in the farming community. But threats of electoral punishment are weak, when the median Labour constituency is only .2% farmers (Census 2021) and only ~10% (!) voted Labour in 2024 (BES data - own analysis)
Not convinced means-testing winter fuel allowance is the electoral poison Lab opponents think. 2012 Budget had the unpopular 'granny tax' which nearly 7/10 opposed (and Cons went on to run up Mugabe margins with pensioners for the next decade). Winter fuel not in same league (50:50 proposition)
September 10, 2024 at 6:50 PM
Not convinced means-testing winter fuel allowance is the electoral poison Lab opponents think. 2012 Budget had the unpopular 'granny tax' which nearly 7/10 opposed (and Cons went on to run up Mugabe margins with pensioners for the next decade). Winter fuel not in same league (50:50 proposition)
