Mark McGeoghegan
@markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social
📊 Quant political science & 🗳️ Scottish politics & elections @glasgow.ac.uk | 📚 Research Associate @uofgpolicy.bsky.social | 📜 Associate Member @ccc-research.bsky.social | 🖋️ in various publications
Pinned
So, actual end of year poll tracker, given the poll released today. SNP projected one short of a majority.
Seats (+/- 2021):
SNP: 64 (-)
Ref: 19 (+19)
Lab: 17 (-5)
Grn: 13 (+5)
Con: 9 (-22)
LD: 7 (+3)
Alba: 0 (-)
21 marginals: 17 SNP, 3 Labour, 1 Conservative.
1/3
Seats (+/- 2021):
SNP: 64 (-)
Ref: 19 (+19)
Lab: 17 (-5)
Grn: 13 (+5)
Con: 9 (-22)
LD: 7 (+3)
Alba: 0 (-)
21 marginals: 17 SNP, 3 Labour, 1 Conservative.
1/3
The Celtic board quietly loading an old Football Manager save
Martin O'Neill has been appointed Celtic manager until the end of the season after Wilfred Nancy was sacked
Martin O'Neill returns to Celtic as manager until end of the season
www.thenational.scot
January 5, 2026 at 9:16 PM
The Celtic board quietly loading an old Football Manager save
Where the fuck did these "stats" come from?
If there is an argument then this is the argument. But lol I can’t find where this obviously false stat is coming from. And if the government does believe more than half the families in the UK are using it as their primary news source then woah maybe time to up the scrutiny of it!
January 5, 2026 at 8:56 PM
Where the fuck did these "stats" come from?
Yes, it is. At least as far as voters' evaluations of ScotLab go.
Starmer: Holyrood election 'not a referendum' on my government
Anas Sarwar and John Swinney will give keynote speeches to kick off this year’s Holyrood election campaign.
www.scotsman.com
January 5, 2026 at 4:26 PM
Yes, it is. At least as far as voters' evaluations of ScotLab go.
London's worth watching most in May. Labour collapses in Scotland and Wales are priced in, but heavy defeats in London both a) look likely, and b) will come as more of a shock to the body politic in general.
All eyes on results in the constituencies of London MPs like Starmer and Streeting.
All eyes on results in the constituencies of London MPs like Starmer and Streeting.
Labour facing tough London elections in May.
“The whole of the Olympic Park belongs to the Greens,” Labour source says.
“There is no Labour party presence in one of the most sizeable developments in the whole of London… It’s all Green, Green, Green.”
Story w @matildamartin.bsky.social
“The whole of the Olympic Park belongs to the Greens,” Labour source says.
“There is no Labour party presence in one of the most sizeable developments in the whole of London… It’s all Green, Green, Green.”
Story w @matildamartin.bsky.social
'We've Got A Tough Fight': Labour Braces For Council Losses In London Heartlands
Labour is steeling itself for bruising results nationwide at the May local elections. However, there's one part of the country where party sources ...
www.politicshome.com
January 5, 2026 at 3:40 PM
London's worth watching most in May. Labour collapses in Scotland and Wales are priced in, but heavy defeats in London both a) look likely, and b) will come as more of a shock to the body politic in general.
All eyes on results in the constituencies of London MPs like Starmer and Streeting.
All eyes on results in the constituencies of London MPs like Starmer and Streeting.
Reposted by Mark McGeoghegan
Grim nights in Wales and Scotland are already baked into Labour thinking about the May locals
Less discussed, however, @matildamartin.bsky.social & @noahvickers.bsky.social report, is things getting ugly in London, where Polanski eyes gains
"The whole of the Olympic Park belongs to the Greens"
Less discussed, however, @matildamartin.bsky.social & @noahvickers.bsky.social report, is things getting ugly in London, where Polanski eyes gains
"The whole of the Olympic Park belongs to the Greens"
Labour facing tough London elections in May.
“The whole of the Olympic Park belongs to the Greens,” Labour source says.
“There is no Labour party presence in one of the most sizeable developments in the whole of London… It’s all Green, Green, Green.”
Story w @matildamartin.bsky.social
“The whole of the Olympic Park belongs to the Greens,” Labour source says.
“There is no Labour party presence in one of the most sizeable developments in the whole of London… It’s all Green, Green, Green.”
Story w @matildamartin.bsky.social
'We've Got A Tough Fight': Labour Braces For Council Losses In London Heartlands
Labour is steeling itself for bruising results nationwide at the May local elections. However, there's one part of the country where party sources ...
www.politicshome.com
January 5, 2026 at 3:23 PM
Grim nights in Wales and Scotland are already baked into Labour thinking about the May locals
Less discussed, however, @matildamartin.bsky.social & @noahvickers.bsky.social report, is things getting ugly in London, where Polanski eyes gains
"The whole of the Olympic Park belongs to the Greens"
Less discussed, however, @matildamartin.bsky.social & @noahvickers.bsky.social report, is things getting ugly in London, where Polanski eyes gains
"The whole of the Olympic Park belongs to the Greens"
It made sense for McConnell to accede to debates with Salmond as Labour were trailing the SNP and the debates created the possibility of boosting their support.
Whereas the SNP currently has a double-digit lead and Labour are polling in third place.
Whereas the SNP currently has a double-digit lead and Labour are polling in third place.
This is exactly the strategy pursued by Alex Salmond against Jack McConnell nearly 20 years ago.
Anas Sarwar challenges John Swinney to TV debates in bid to close Holyrood poll gap - Daily Record
The Scottish Labour's call has echoes of the strategy pursued by former SNP leader Alex Salmond nearly twenty years ago.
www.dailyrecord.co.uk
January 5, 2026 at 3:30 PM
It made sense for McConnell to accede to debates with Salmond as Labour were trailing the SNP and the debates created the possibility of boosting their support.
Whereas the SNP currently has a double-digit lead and Labour are polling in third place.
Whereas the SNP currently has a double-digit lead and Labour are polling in third place.
Reposted by Mark McGeoghegan
Reposted by Mark McGeoghegan
There's nothing worse than "emergency" podcasts making predictions.
They're the podcast version of uninformed hot takes looking for clicks, making the participants look like idiots. The latest round of such podcasts about Venezuela, recorded *before* Trump spoke, are the case in point.
They're the podcast version of uninformed hot takes looking for clicks, making the participants look like idiots. The latest round of such podcasts about Venezuela, recorded *before* Trump spoke, are the case in point.
January 4, 2026 at 6:13 PM
There's nothing worse than "emergency" podcasts making predictions.
They're the podcast version of uninformed hot takes looking for clicks, making the participants look like idiots. The latest round of such podcasts about Venezuela, recorded *before* Trump spoke, are the case in point.
They're the podcast version of uninformed hot takes looking for clicks, making the participants look like idiots. The latest round of such podcasts about Venezuela, recorded *before* Trump spoke, are the case in point.
There's nothing worse than "emergency" podcasts making predictions.
They're the podcast version of uninformed hot takes looking for clicks, making the participants look like idiots. The latest round of such podcasts about Venezuela, recorded *before* Trump spoke, are the case in point.
They're the podcast version of uninformed hot takes looking for clicks, making the participants look like idiots. The latest round of such podcasts about Venezuela, recorded *before* Trump spoke, are the case in point.
January 4, 2026 at 6:13 PM
There's nothing worse than "emergency" podcasts making predictions.
They're the podcast version of uninformed hot takes looking for clicks, making the participants look like idiots. The latest round of such podcasts about Venezuela, recorded *before* Trump spoke, are the case in point.
They're the podcast version of uninformed hot takes looking for clicks, making the participants look like idiots. The latest round of such podcasts about Venezuela, recorded *before* Trump spoke, are the case in point.
Trying to convert the spare room into a nursery and discovering the sheer volume of amateur-hour DIY done by the previous owners...
a man in a jacksonville jaguars shirt stands in a crowd
ALT: a man in a jacksonville jaguars shirt stands in a crowd
media.tenor.com
January 4, 2026 at 5:35 PM
Trying to convert the spare room into a nursery and discovering the sheer volume of amateur-hour DIY done by the previous owners...
Reposted by Mark McGeoghegan
By-Election Preview: Glenrothes West and Kinglassie (Fife) 22nd of January 2026
Glenrothes has long been a strong patch for the SNP, and with Labour's current difficulties Reform may end up their true competitors here.
Glenrothes has long been a strong patch for the SNP, and with Labour's current difficulties Reform may end up their true competitors here.
By-Election Preview: Glenrothes West and Kinglassie (Fife) 22nd of January 2026
Glenrothes has long been a strong patch for the SNP, and with Labour's current difficulties Reform may end up their true competitors here.
ballotbox.scot
January 4, 2026 at 5:30 PM
By-Election Preview: Glenrothes West and Kinglassie (Fife) 22nd of January 2026
Glenrothes has long been a strong patch for the SNP, and with Labour's current difficulties Reform may end up their true competitors here.
Glenrothes has long been a strong patch for the SNP, and with Labour's current difficulties Reform may end up their true competitors here.
"We need to support our strongman, authoritarian leader's illegal foreign interventions or we'll look weak"
Are you fucking kidding me? You coward.
Are you fucking kidding me? You coward.
Some Democrats hate that their party is largely positioning itself in opposition to the operation that resulted in Maduro's capture.
"Everything Trump touches must be bad according to the base," one House Dem told @axios.com
Said another: "It looks weak." www.axios.com/2026/01/04/m...
"Everything Trump touches must be bad according to the base," one House Dem told @axios.com
Said another: "It looks weak." www.axios.com/2026/01/04/m...
"It looks weak": Some Democrats want their party to shut up and clap for Maduro's capture
"Everything Trump touches must be bad according to the base," fumed one House Democrat.
www.axios.com
January 4, 2026 at 3:52 PM
"We need to support our strongman, authoritarian leader's illegal foreign interventions or we'll look weak"
Are you fucking kidding me? You coward.
Are you fucking kidding me? You coward.
The error was thinking of Trump as doctrinal in the first place. He has a worldview, sure - a decidedly Thucydidean one that you could have identified from his business practices over decades, nevermind his first term - but it's one that completely contradicts the "doctrine" he espoused to win votes
Once a critic of overseas entanglements, President Trump now appears willing to embrace regime change as a tool of American influence, raising questions about whether his “America First” doctrine is being redefined.
Trump’s Venezuela move pushes the limits of ‘America First’
Once a critic of entanglements abroad, Trump now appears willing to embrace regime change as a tool of American influence, risking a backlash from his MAGA base.
www.washingtonpost.com
January 4, 2026 at 11:57 AM
The error was thinking of Trump as doctrinal in the first place. He has a worldview, sure - a decidedly Thucydidean one that you could have identified from his business practices over decades, nevermind his first term - but it's one that completely contradicts the "doctrine" he espoused to win votes
Yes, our partnership with the US *is* the most important relationship we have. Because we've allowed ourselves to become dependent on an unreliable and sometimes hostile foreign state.
The answer to that isn't unyielding Atlanticism, it's working with our actual allies to unravel that dependence.
The answer to that isn't unyielding Atlanticism, it's working with our actual allies to unravel that dependence.
Keir Starmer: "I constantly remind myself that 24/7 our defence, our security & our intelligent relationship with the US matters probably more than any other relationship we've got in the world and it would not be in our national interest to weaken that in any way"
January 4, 2026 at 11:30 AM
Yes, our partnership with the US *is* the most important relationship we have. Because we've allowed ourselves to become dependent on an unreliable and sometimes hostile foreign state.
The answer to that isn't unyielding Atlanticism, it's working with our actual allies to unravel that dependence.
The answer to that isn't unyielding Atlanticism, it's working with our actual allies to unravel that dependence.
Even assuming a US-friendly regime is installed & gives up Venezuelan to US companies, without a war followed by an insurgency that would make FDI unattractive (unlikely)...
It would take many years to install the infrastructure needed to extract & ship a significant amount of oil to the US.
It would take many years to install the infrastructure needed to extract & ship a significant amount of oil to the US.
An immensely tired & uninformed take.
Canada currently:
- exports >4x Venezuelan crude shipments
- that supply is linked to American refineries by pipelines that travel one direction (south)
- no one is rushing into Venezuela to roll the dice *again* on whoever replaces Maduro
Canada currently:
- exports >4x Venezuelan crude shipments
- that supply is linked to American refineries by pipelines that travel one direction (south)
- no one is rushing into Venezuela to roll the dice *again* on whoever replaces Maduro
January 4, 2026 at 11:15 AM
Even assuming a US-friendly regime is installed & gives up Venezuelan to US companies, without a war followed by an insurgency that would make FDI unattractive (unlikely)...
It would take many years to install the infrastructure needed to extract & ship a significant amount of oil to the US.
It would take many years to install the infrastructure needed to extract & ship a significant amount of oil to the US.
Reposted by Mark McGeoghegan
THREAD: I'll fact-check all the viral misinformation about the US military operation in Venezuela in this thread
This image, purporting to show the US military arresting Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, is AI-generated.
According to Google's SynthID detector, it was created using Google AI.
This image, purporting to show the US military arresting Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, is AI-generated.
According to Google's SynthID detector, it was created using Google AI.
January 3, 2026 at 5:55 PM
THREAD: I'll fact-check all the viral misinformation about the US military operation in Venezuela in this thread
This image, purporting to show the US military arresting Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, is AI-generated.
According to Google's SynthID detector, it was created using Google AI.
This image, purporting to show the US military arresting Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, is AI-generated.
According to Google's SynthID detector, it was created using Google AI.
Reposted by Mark McGeoghegan
1/10 🧵 The U.S. just captured a sitting head of state in a military operation—and Trump says the U.S. will "run" Venezuela “for now.” Whatever you think of Maduro, this is the most consequential unilateral move in the hemisphere since Panama (1989).
January 3, 2026 at 6:39 PM
1/10 🧵 The U.S. just captured a sitting head of state in a military operation—and Trump says the U.S. will "run" Venezuela “for now.” Whatever you think of Maduro, this is the most consequential unilateral move in the hemisphere since Panama (1989).
Reposted by Mark McGeoghegan
If Mexico, who border the mad colossus that is the United States, can unequivocally condemn this as an action of aggression then the EU, sheltered by the Atlantic, can do the same and not offer this subservient drivel.
Following very closely the situation in Venezuela.
We stand by the people of Venezuela and support a peaceful and democratic transition.
Any solution must respect international law and the UN Charter.
We stand by the people of Venezuela and support a peaceful and democratic transition.
Any solution must respect international law and the UN Charter.
January 3, 2026 at 2:25 PM
If Mexico, who border the mad colossus that is the United States, can unequivocally condemn this as an action of aggression then the EU, sheltered by the Atlantic, can do the same and not offer this subservient drivel.
Not exactly a surprise, the Post endorsed the invasion of Iraq before offering a sort-of mea culpa four years later...
The Washington Post editorial board comes out in favor of the Venezuela attack/operation to capture Maduro
January 3, 2026 at 6:26 PM
Not exactly a surprise, the Post endorsed the invasion of Iraq before offering a sort-of mea culpa four years later...
Reposted by Mark McGeoghegan
Of course international diplomacy is complex and nuanced, and that becomes more complex when it is a close ally, but Trump saying US has effectively just taken control of a sovereign nation and UN planning a censure motion does mean Starmer needs to be firmer than shrugging and saying "wait and see"
January 3, 2026 at 5:10 PM
Of course international diplomacy is complex and nuanced, and that becomes more complex when it is a close ally, but Trump saying US has effectively just taken control of a sovereign nation and UN planning a censure motion does mean Starmer needs to be firmer than shrugging and saying "wait and see"
The notion that the Venezuelan military, myriad paramilitaries loyal to the Maduro regime, and the remainder of the Venezuelan political regime won't resist this with force is fanciful at best.
If Trump's ambitions, as laid out here, are to be realised it'll require a large commitment of US forces.
If Trump's ambitions, as laid out here, are to be realised it'll require a large commitment of US forces.
The US will run Venezuela, Trump said, 'until such time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition,' signaling an open-ended US role reut.rs/3Ne4l3T
January 3, 2026 at 5:11 PM
The notion that the Venezuelan military, myriad paramilitaries loyal to the Maduro regime, and the remainder of the Venezuelan political regime won't resist this with force is fanciful at best.
If Trump's ambitions, as laid out here, are to be realised it'll require a large commitment of US forces.
If Trump's ambitions, as laid out here, are to be realised it'll require a large commitment of US forces.
Reposted by Mark McGeoghegan
I'm hardly original in saying this, but a lot of people are going to try to make this about whether Maduro being gone is good or bad as such, rather than the blatant violation of international and US law in a destabilizing act of aggression.
Don't fall for it.
Don't fall for it.
January 3, 2026 at 1:45 PM
I'm hardly original in saying this, but a lot of people are going to try to make this about whether Maduro being gone is good or bad as such, rather than the blatant violation of international and US law in a destabilizing act of aggression.
Don't fall for it.
Don't fall for it.
Think twice about what? Behaving in exactly the same way in their own self-defined spheres of influence?
Farage folding himself into a pretzel trying to avoid justifying Trump's actions (b/c unpopular with UK voters) without condemning them (b/c he benefits from the transnational far-right).
Farage folding himself into a pretzel trying to avoid justifying Trump's actions (b/c unpopular with UK voters) without condemning them (b/c he benefits from the transnational far-right).
January 3, 2026 at 11:03 AM
Think twice about what? Behaving in exactly the same way in their own self-defined spheres of influence?
Farage folding himself into a pretzel trying to avoid justifying Trump's actions (b/c unpopular with UK voters) without condemning them (b/c he benefits from the transnational far-right).
Farage folding himself into a pretzel trying to avoid justifying Trump's actions (b/c unpopular with UK voters) without condemning them (b/c he benefits from the transnational far-right).