Mark McGeoghegan
@markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social
@uofglasgow.bsky.social PhD studying political contention of self-determination groups | 📊 Quant PoliSci | 🗳️ Scots politics & elections | Associate Member @ccc-research.bsky.social | ✍🏻 @heraldscotland.bsky.social | Some 📊 @uofgpolicy.bsky.social
Pinned
New Scottish Parliament poll tracker, incorporating yesterday's @moreincommonuk.bsky.social polling. Thanks to 12 marginal holds and 3 marginal gains, the SNP match their 2021 result.
Seats (+/- 2021):
SNP: 64 (-)
Lab: 18 (-4)
Ref: 16 (+16)
LD: 11 (+7)
Con: 10 (-21)
Grn: 10 (+2)
Alba: 0 (-)
1/4
Seats (+/- 2021):
SNP: 64 (-)
Lab: 18 (-4)
Ref: 16 (+16)
LD: 11 (+7)
Con: 10 (-21)
Grn: 10 (+2)
Alba: 0 (-)
1/4
Interestingly I've never seen election turnout broken down by social media usage. Presumably the BES has the right data.
Fell down a facebook rabbit hole thanks to something a family member shared. Labour should be really concerned, the tone and circulation of posts now has a simialr feel to Conservatives in 2023 but with an added side of far right memes. Facebook worries me far more than X
November 10, 2025 at 6:24 PM
Interestingly I've never seen election turnout broken down by social media usage. Presumably the BES has the right data.
💯 You can basically lift this word-for-word for healthcare too.
Can’t quite believe I’m saying this but: more funding *for these services* isn’t how I’d fix criminal justice! Probation & courts 100% need more money, but big increases are already planned. I’d focus on drivers: housing, substance misuse, lack of opportunities, behavioural/speech & language issues
- significant funding increase for police, the courts, probation and the prison service
- action to lower energy costs (this looks like happening)
- more tax powers for councils so they can increase their own spending power on local amenities etc (poorer areas are already destined for more funding)
- action to lower energy costs (this looks like happening)
- more tax powers for councils so they can increase their own spending power on local amenities etc (poorer areas are already destined for more funding)
November 10, 2025 at 6:23 PM
💯 You can basically lift this word-for-word for healthcare too.
It's increasingly clear that Labour are going to pitch the Budget as "yes, we raised your taxes and broke a manifesto promise, but look at what we're spending on child poverty" (e.g. by lifting the two-child cap).
I can't say that I'm confident that will land as they hope it will.
I can't say that I'm confident that will land as they hope it will.
November 10, 2025 at 4:45 PM
It's increasingly clear that Labour are going to pitch the Budget as "yes, we raised your taxes and broke a manifesto promise, but look at what we're spending on child poverty" (e.g. by lifting the two-child cap).
I can't say that I'm confident that will land as they hope it will.
I can't say that I'm confident that will land as they hope it will.
Trump makes these threats because it leads to organisations making the risk-based calculation that settling for, say, $30m is better than the very small risk that he actually wins a $1bn payout in court.
Under no circumstances should the BBC cave on this.
Under no circumstances should the BBC cave on this.
Trump Threatens to Sue the BBC for $1 Billion After Jan. 6 Documentary
www.nytimes.com
November 10, 2025 at 4:43 PM
Trump makes these threats because it leads to organisations making the risk-based calculation that settling for, say, $30m is better than the very small risk that he actually wins a $1bn payout in court.
Under no circumstances should the BBC cave on this.
Under no circumstances should the BBC cave on this.
I agree with this, Q is how we make appointments in the BBC, then? Presumably the board should appoint the DG etc without political interference, but who selects the board? The Culture, Media, and Sport committee (by majority vote)?
We do need to maintain some democratic control over the BBC.
We do need to maintain some democratic control over the BBC.
But that is not enough. No.10 should never have been in a position to install Gibb in the first place. It shouldn't control the board membership, the DG appointment, or the purse strings. What's required is genuine independence for the BBC.
November 10, 2025 at 4:39 PM
I agree with this, Q is how we make appointments in the BBC, then? Presumably the board should appoint the DG etc without political interference, but who selects the board? The Culture, Media, and Sport committee (by majority vote)?
We do need to maintain some democratic control over the BBC.
We do need to maintain some democratic control over the BBC.
Reposted by Mark McGeoghegan
Should Gibb be sacked? yes, obviously. He's an abomination of basic journalistic standards. His GB News channel spreads conspiracy theory & disinformation. His Jewish Chronicle newspaper spreads invented stories. He is plainly trying to undermine the BBC so it's as bad as everything else he touches.
November 10, 2025 at 12:47 PM
Should Gibb be sacked? yes, obviously. He's an abomination of basic journalistic standards. His GB News channel spreads conspiracy theory & disinformation. His Jewish Chronicle newspaper spreads invented stories. He is plainly trying to undermine the BBC so it's as bad as everything else he touches.
Reposted by Mark McGeoghegan
The fact that the BBC has made serious culpable errors does not negate the point that there is a real and concerted right-wing media campaign to destroy it. Both points can be true at the same time and the campaign would not end even if the errors did.
November 10, 2025 at 1:08 PM
The fact that the BBC has made serious culpable errors does not negate the point that there is a real and concerted right-wing media campaign to destroy it. Both points can be true at the same time and the campaign would not end even if the errors did.
Reposted by Mark McGeoghegan
Maybe Keir should demand the heads of major US news networks any time they imply Britain is on the brink of civil war or that we live under sharia law. Or does it not work both ways?
November 10, 2025 at 11:29 AM
Maybe Keir should demand the heads of major US news networks any time they imply Britain is on the brink of civil war or that we live under sharia law. Or does it not work both ways?
Reposted by Mark McGeoghegan
Prescott's 19 page memo criticising specific programmes in 6 different areas. It is much more subjective - coming from his own perspective across issues - than the thematic reviews conducted by the BBC with a clear methodology & engagement with all perspectives
www.bbc.co.uk/aboutthebbc/...
www.bbc.co.uk/aboutthebbc/...
www.bbc.co.uk
November 10, 2025 at 12:02 AM
Prescott's 19 page memo criticising specific programmes in 6 different areas. It is much more subjective - coming from his own perspective across issues - than the thematic reviews conducted by the BBC with a clear methodology & engagement with all perspectives
www.bbc.co.uk/aboutthebbc/...
www.bbc.co.uk/aboutthebbc/...
As an example, in 2015-16 we paid £650 a month for a three bedroom flat on White Street, Glasgow. Today, that should be £895pcm accounting for inflation.
The same flat is going for £1595pcm - *78%* more than in 2015-16, inflation adjusted.
The same flat is going for £1595pcm - *78%* more than in 2015-16, inflation adjusted.
There's also the fact that landlords are not offering people a product at a price they're happy with. Nobody is happy with the price they're paying for housing, or with paying exorbitant costs to pay off a mortgage for someone else.
The rental market is a case study in market failure.
The rental market is a case study in market failure.
Surely there are some better arguments on the pro landlordism side of the debate than implying that if a landlord doesn't own the house, the house ceases to exist??
November 9, 2025 at 2:05 PM
As an example, in 2015-16 we paid £650 a month for a three bedroom flat on White Street, Glasgow. Today, that should be £895pcm accounting for inflation.
The same flat is going for £1595pcm - *78%* more than in 2015-16, inflation adjusted.
The same flat is going for £1595pcm - *78%* more than in 2015-16, inflation adjusted.
Reposted by Mark McGeoghegan
When looking at ‘AI productivity savings’ in government they’d better also count having to revisit everything in a project, rather than filing this bit under some other ‘misc’ heading
www.bbc.com/news/article...
www.bbc.com/news/article...
Child benefit: HMRC to review thousands of suspended payments
The tax body had used travel data to conclude that thousands of parents had left the country permanently but many say they just went on holiday.
www.bbc.com
November 9, 2025 at 1:57 PM
When looking at ‘AI productivity savings’ in government they’d better also count having to revisit everything in a project, rather than filing this bit under some other ‘misc’ heading
www.bbc.com/news/article...
www.bbc.com/news/article...
Reposted by Mark McGeoghegan
The whole of the HMRC Board got me to present to them about the opportunities and risks of AI about 18 months ago and my main messages were be very careful with high stakes decision making and remember the Horizon Post Office scandal which was about governance and accountability…
Somebody at HMRC needs to be canned for this idiotic ‘fraud-detection’ idea. And I fear future use of AI in welfare cases might well produce this kind of story regularly (as they have in Nevada for example).
UK woman who booked Oslo flight but did not fly loses child benefit ‘because she emigrated’
Exclusive: HMRC told Lisa Morris-Almond there was no record of her return to UK, but she did not take the trip
www.theguardian.com
October 30, 2025 at 12:38 PM
The whole of the HMRC Board got me to present to them about the opportunities and risks of AI about 18 months ago and my main messages were be very careful with high stakes decision making and remember the Horizon Post Office scandal which was about governance and accountability…
There's also the fact that landlords are not offering people a product at a price they're happy with. Nobody is happy with the price they're paying for housing, or with paying exorbitant costs to pay off a mortgage for someone else.
The rental market is a case study in market failure.
The rental market is a case study in market failure.
Surely there are some better arguments on the pro landlordism side of the debate than implying that if a landlord doesn't own the house, the house ceases to exist??
November 9, 2025 at 1:50 PM
There's also the fact that landlords are not offering people a product at a price they're happy with. Nobody is happy with the price they're paying for housing, or with paying exorbitant costs to pay off a mortgage for someone else.
The rental market is a case study in market failure.
The rental market is a case study in market failure.
Reposted by Mark McGeoghegan
There's not been a lot of polling for the 2026 Scottish Parliament recently so here's the current lay of the land.
SNP 🎗️ — 62
Lab 🌹 — 18
Con 🌳 — 12
GP 🌱 — 10
LD 🐤 — 10
Ref ➡️ — 17
Other ⚪ — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
SNP 🎗️ — 62
Lab 🌹 — 18
Con 🌳 — 12
GP 🌱 — 10
LD 🐤 — 10
Ref ➡️ — 17
Other ⚪ — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool
Create and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!
devolvedelections.co.uk
November 8, 2025 at 11:44 AM
There's not been a lot of polling for the 2026 Scottish Parliament recently so here's the current lay of the land.
SNP 🎗️ — 62
Lab 🌹 — 18
Con 🌳 — 12
GP 🌱 — 10
LD 🐤 — 10
Ref ➡️ — 17
Other ⚪ — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
SNP 🎗️ — 62
Lab 🌹 — 18
Con 🌳 — 12
GP 🌱 — 10
LD 🐤 — 10
Ref ➡️ — 17
Other ⚪ — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
I mean yes, a lot of what populists like Polanski promise is undeliverable, but that argument will carry little water for Labour if - as expected - they do end up increasing income tax in the Budget.
Greens’ ‘undeliverable’ promises will let voters down, says Labour minister
Exclusive: Darren Jones says Labour has to convince young people it is ‘modern party of the future’
www.theguardian.com
November 8, 2025 at 9:25 AM
I mean yes, a lot of what populists like Polanski promise is undeliverable, but that argument will carry little water for Labour if - as expected - they do end up increasing income tax in the Budget.
Reposted by Mark McGeoghegan
Today marks just six months to go until the 2026 Scottish Parliament Election! As is now usual, I'll be looking to commission a pre-election poll. If you can, please chip in to the crowdfunder here - all donations gratefully received, and even if you can't donate, please share!
gofund.me/cf862de1a
gofund.me/cf862de1a
Donate to Ballot Box Scotland SP26 Fundraiser, organized by Allan Faulds
This funding will support Ballot Box Scotland's reporting ahead of the 2026 Scottish … Allan Faulds needs your support for Ballot Box Scotland SP26 Fundraiser
gofund.me
November 7, 2025 at 7:00 PM
Today marks just six months to go until the 2026 Scottish Parliament Election! As is now usual, I'll be looking to commission a pre-election poll. If you can, please chip in to the crowdfunder here - all donations gratefully received, and even if you can't donate, please share!
gofund.me/cf862de1a
gofund.me/cf862de1a
Bringing back the stocks??
November 7, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Bringing back the stocks??
Pretty much everything Mel Stride says is automatically funny.
"With inflation running at almost double the target rate"
Mate, your party had inflation running at 11%.
"With inflation running at almost double the target rate"
Mate, your party had inflation running at 11%.
November 6, 2025 at 1:52 PM
Pretty much everything Mel Stride says is automatically funny.
"With inflation running at almost double the target rate"
Mate, your party had inflation running at 11%.
"With inflation running at almost double the target rate"
Mate, your party had inflation running at 11%.
Arthur Schlesinger is spinning in his grave.
Mike Johnson on the tariffs case before SCOTUS: "I'm cheering for the president that the executive will win on this. Now, I say that as a jealous guardian of the legislative branch of government, Article 1."
November 6, 2025 at 1:36 PM
Arthur Schlesinger is spinning in his grave.
I'm not opposed to levying greater taxation on EVs - there are lots of reasons to support it, particularly as they make up a greater share of the market, such as road maintenance costs - but doing so just to fill a fiscal hole rather than working out a long-term strategy doesn't make sense.
November 6, 2025 at 11:46 AM
I'm not opposed to levying greater taxation on EVs - there are lots of reasons to support it, particularly as they make up a greater share of the market, such as road maintenance costs - but doing so just to fill a fiscal hole rather than working out a long-term strategy doesn't make sense.
I'm really not sure I'd call his speaking out about racism or the harms of Brexit, which accounts for most of his recent activity, pandering to the left. I haven't seen him say anything that would be out of place for a Blairite ex-Progress employee.
November 6, 2025 at 11:31 AM
I'm really not sure I'd call his speaking out about racism or the harms of Brexit, which accounts for most of his recent activity, pandering to the left. I haven't seen him say anything that would be out of place for a Blairite ex-Progress employee.
Reposted by Mark McGeoghegan
X is designed to radicalise people.
The algorithm promotes Elon Musk's agenda to promote racists and people who want violence bought - specifically - to the streets of Britain.
Members of Parliament, major institutions and the media should not be there.
news.sky.com/story/the-x-...
The algorithm promotes Elon Musk's agenda to promote racists and people who want violence bought - specifically - to the streets of Britain.
Members of Parliament, major institutions and the media should not be there.
news.sky.com/story/the-x-...
Elon Musk is boosting the British right - and this shows how
Elon Musk is boosting the British right - and this shows how
news.sky.com
November 6, 2025 at 7:53 AM
X is designed to radicalise people.
The algorithm promotes Elon Musk's agenda to promote racists and people who want violence bought - specifically - to the streets of Britain.
Members of Parliament, major institutions and the media should not be there.
news.sky.com/story/the-x-...
The algorithm promotes Elon Musk's agenda to promote racists and people who want violence bought - specifically - to the streets of Britain.
Members of Parliament, major institutions and the media should not be there.
news.sky.com/story/the-x-...
There's a fag paper between me (self-id'd as a SocDem) and Mamdani (DemSoc). He's far from the most leftwing person they could've run.
November 5, 2025 at 7:26 PM
There's a fag paper between me (self-id'd as a SocDem) and Mamdani (DemSoc). He's far from the most leftwing person they could've run.