Devolved Election Projections
@devolvedelections.bsky.social
A range of simple tools to create your own results of the Scottish, Welsh, Northern Irish and London Elections 🗳️
https://devolvedelections.co.uk/
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https://devolvedelections.co.uk/
Donate: https://buymeacoffee.com/devolvedelections
A Projection on the latest Norstat poll in Scotland:
🎗️ SNP — 59
🌹 Lab — 19
🌳 Con — 11
🌱 GP — 11
🐤 LD — 6
➡️ Ref — 23
@devolvedelections.bsky.social
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
🎗️ SNP — 59
🌹 Lab — 19
🌳 Con — 11
🌱 GP — 11
🐤 LD — 6
➡️ Ref — 23
@devolvedelections.bsky.social
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
February 15, 2026 at 9:50 AM
A Projection on the latest Norstat poll in Scotland:
🎗️ SNP — 59
🌹 Lab — 19
🌳 Con — 11
🌱 GP — 11
🐤 LD — 6
➡️ Ref — 23
@devolvedelections.bsky.social
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
🎗️ SNP — 59
🌹 Lab — 19
🌳 Con — 11
🌱 GP — 11
🐤 LD — 6
➡️ Ref — 23
@devolvedelections.bsky.social
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
For context, this is not the place with the highest projected Reform vote, that's Banffshire and Buchan Coast.
This is just the one with the lowest projected vote for anyone else.
This is just the one with the lowest projected vote for anyone else.
That one Reform seat is in Aberdeenshire West. Its a coin flip, and whoever wins could get less than a third of the vote there.
FPTP does not work with more than two parties.
FPTP does not work with more than two parties.
February 14, 2026 at 9:16 AM
For context, this is not the place with the highest projected Reform vote, that's Banffshire and Buchan Coast.
This is just the one with the lowest projected vote for anyone else.
This is just the one with the lowest projected vote for anyone else.
Our current Nowcast for May's Holyrood election:
SNP 🎗️ — 60
Lab 🌹 — 18
Con 🌳 — 12
GP 🌱 — 11
LD 🐤 — 10
Ref ➡️ — 18
Alba 🔵 — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
SNP 🎗️ — 60
Lab 🌹 — 18
Con 🌳 — 12
GP 🌱 — 11
LD 🐤 — 10
Ref ➡️ — 18
Alba 🔵 — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
February 14, 2026 at 9:00 AM
Our current Nowcast for May's Holyrood election:
SNP 🎗️ — 60
Lab 🌹 — 18
Con 🌳 — 12
GP 🌱 — 11
LD 🐤 — 10
Ref ➡️ — 18
Alba 🔵 — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
SNP 🎗️ — 60
Lab 🌹 — 18
Con 🌳 — 12
GP 🌱 — 11
LD 🐤 — 10
Ref ➡️ — 18
Alba 🔵 — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
Our projection for May's Senedd election based on the latest More in Common poll:
➡️ Ref — 37
🌼 PC — 25
🌹 Lab — 19
🌳 Con — 10
🐤 LD — 3
🌱 GP — 2
From devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
➡️ Ref — 37
🌼 PC — 25
🌹 Lab — 19
🌳 Con — 10
🐤 LD — 3
🌱 GP — 2
From devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
February 13, 2026 at 11:36 AM
Our projection for May's Senedd election based on the latest More in Common poll:
➡️ Ref — 37
🌼 PC — 25
🌹 Lab — 19
🌳 Con — 10
🐤 LD — 3
🌱 GP — 2
From devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
➡️ Ref — 37
🌼 PC — 25
🌹 Lab — 19
🌳 Con — 10
🐤 LD — 3
🌱 GP — 2
From devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
A projection on a "recent' poll by More in Common.
➡️ Ref — 37
🌼 PC — 28
🌹 Lab — 14
🌳 Con — 12
🐤 LD — 3
🌱 GP — 2
We are not adding this to our polling average for a few reasons.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
➡️ Ref — 37
🌼 PC — 28
🌹 Lab — 14
🌳 Con — 12
🐤 LD — 3
🌱 GP — 2
We are not adding this to our polling average for a few reasons.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
February 4, 2026 at 9:51 AM
A projection on a "recent' poll by More in Common.
➡️ Ref — 37
🌼 PC — 28
🌹 Lab — 14
🌳 Con — 12
🐤 LD — 3
🌱 GP — 2
We are not adding this to our polling average for a few reasons.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
➡️ Ref — 37
🌼 PC — 28
🌹 Lab — 14
🌳 Con — 12
🐤 LD — 3
🌱 GP — 2
We are not adding this to our polling average for a few reasons.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
Reposted by Devolved Election Projections
An IrishElections projection on the latest Ireland/Thinks
Sunday Independent poll
☘️ Sinn Féin — 44 Seats
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 41
⭐ Fine Gael — 36
🟪 Social Democrats — 21
🌹 Labour — 9
🟢 Independent Ireland — 8
💬 Independent — 6
🌳 Aontú — 4
✊ PBP-S — 4
🌱 Green — 1
From irishelections.ie/general
Sunday Independent poll
☘️ Sinn Féin — 44 Seats
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 41
⭐ Fine Gael — 36
🟪 Social Democrats — 21
🌹 Labour — 9
🟢 Independent Ireland — 8
💬 Independent — 6
🌳 Aontú — 4
✊ PBP-S — 4
🌱 Green — 1
From irishelections.ie/general
February 1, 2026 at 11:51 AM
An IrishElections projection on the latest Ireland/Thinks
Sunday Independent poll
☘️ Sinn Féin — 44 Seats
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 41
⭐ Fine Gael — 36
🟪 Social Democrats — 21
🌹 Labour — 9
🟢 Independent Ireland — 8
💬 Independent — 6
🌳 Aontú — 4
✊ PBP-S — 4
🌱 Green — 1
From irishelections.ie/general
Sunday Independent poll
☘️ Sinn Féin — 44 Seats
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 41
⭐ Fine Gael — 36
🟪 Social Democrats — 21
🌹 Labour — 9
🟢 Independent Ireland — 8
💬 Independent — 6
🌳 Aontú — 4
✊ PBP-S — 4
🌱 Green — 1
From irishelections.ie/general
Our Projection on the latest @yougov.co.uk poll for May's Holyrood election
🎗️ SNP — 58
➡️ Ref — 24
🌹 Lab — 17
🌱 GP — 12
🌳 Con — 9
🐤 LD — 9
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
🎗️ SNP — 58
➡️ Ref — 24
🌹 Lab — 17
🌱 GP — 12
🌳 Con — 9
🐤 LD — 9
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
January 29, 2026 at 4:00 PM
Our Projection on the latest @yougov.co.uk poll for May's Holyrood election
🎗️ SNP — 58
➡️ Ref — 24
🌹 Lab — 17
🌱 GP — 12
🌳 Con — 9
🐤 LD — 9
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
🎗️ SNP — 58
➡️ Ref — 24
🌹 Lab — 17
🌱 GP — 12
🌳 Con — 9
🐤 LD — 9
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
Our projection based on the latest @belfasttelegraph.co.uk / LucidTalk poll:
☘️ SF — 24
🦁 DUP — 23
🤝 AP — 11
🔷 UUP — 11
🌹 SDLP — 11
Ⓣ TUV — 7
🌱 GP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
☘️ SF — 24
🦁 DUP — 23
🤝 AP — 11
🔷 UUP — 11
🌹 SDLP — 11
Ⓣ TUV — 7
🌱 GP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
January 25, 2026 at 9:54 PM
Our projection based on the latest @belfasttelegraph.co.uk / LucidTalk poll:
☘️ SF — 24
🦁 DUP — 23
🤝 AP — 11
🔷 UUP — 11
🌹 SDLP — 11
Ⓣ TUV — 7
🌱 GP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
☘️ SF — 24
🦁 DUP — 23
🤝 AP — 11
🔷 UUP — 11
🌹 SDLP — 11
Ⓣ TUV — 7
🌱 GP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
Reposted by Devolved Election Projections
Our Projection based on the latest RedC research /
@businesspost.bsky.social poll:
☘️ Sinn Féin — 50 Seats
⭐ Fine Gael — 37
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 35
🟪 Social Democrats — 23
💬 Independent — 12
🌹 Labour — 9
🟢 Independent Ireland — 4
🌳 Aontú — 3
✊ PBP-S — 1
From irishelections.ie
@businesspost.bsky.social poll:
☘️ Sinn Féin — 50 Seats
⭐ Fine Gael — 37
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 35
🟪 Social Democrats — 23
💬 Independent — 12
🌹 Labour — 9
🟢 Independent Ireland — 4
🌳 Aontú — 3
✊ PBP-S — 1
From irishelections.ie
January 25, 2026 at 10:47 AM
Our Projection based on the latest RedC research /
@businesspost.bsky.social poll:
☘️ Sinn Féin — 50 Seats
⭐ Fine Gael — 37
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 35
🟪 Social Democrats — 23
💬 Independent — 12
🌹 Labour — 9
🟢 Independent Ireland — 4
🌳 Aontú — 3
✊ PBP-S — 1
From irishelections.ie
@businesspost.bsky.social poll:
☘️ Sinn Féin — 50 Seats
⭐ Fine Gael — 37
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 35
🟪 Social Democrats — 23
💬 Independent — 12
🌹 Labour — 9
🟢 Independent Ireland — 4
🌳 Aontú — 3
✊ PBP-S — 1
From irishelections.ie
On current polling we think the SNP have about a 6.6% chance of a majority.
A broader Pro-Indy majority is considerably more likely
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland-pro...
A broader Pro-Indy majority is considerably more likely
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland-pro...
January 20, 2026 at 9:43 AM
On current polling we think the SNP have about a 6.6% chance of a majority.
A broader Pro-Indy majority is considerably more likely
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland-pro...
A broader Pro-Indy majority is considerably more likely
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland-pro...
After an incredible Welsh poll we now project First Ministers from Nationalist parties in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Nationalists in Wales even win a majority in over 20% of our simulations!
This happens 99% of the time in Scotland, and 0% in Northern Ireland.
Nationalists in Wales even win a majority in over 20% of our simulations!
This happens 99% of the time in Scotland, and 0% in Northern Ireland.
January 18, 2026 at 10:28 AM
After an incredible Welsh poll we now project First Ministers from Nationalist parties in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Nationalists in Wales even win a majority in over 20% of our simulations!
This happens 99% of the time in Scotland, and 0% in Northern Ireland.
Nationalists in Wales even win a majority in over 20% of our simulations!
This happens 99% of the time in Scotland, and 0% in Northern Ireland.
A projection on the latest Norstat poll for May's Scottish Parliament election
🎗️ SNP — 61
🌹 Lab — 18
➡️ Ref — 17
🌱 GP — 13
🌳 Con — 12
🐤 LD — 8
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
🎗️ SNP — 61
🌹 Lab — 18
➡️ Ref — 17
🌱 GP — 13
🌳 Con — 12
🐤 LD — 8
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
January 17, 2026 at 11:08 PM
A projection on the latest Norstat poll for May's Scottish Parliament election
🎗️ SNP — 61
🌹 Lab — 18
➡️ Ref — 17
🌱 GP — 13
🌳 Con — 12
🐤 LD — 8
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
🎗️ SNP — 61
🌹 Lab — 18
➡️ Ref — 17
🌱 GP — 13
🌳 Con — 12
🐤 LD — 8
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
Our Projection on the latest Survation/True North Advisors poll for May's Holyrood Election
🎗️ SNP — 58
🌹 Lab — 19
➡️ Ref — 19
🌳 Con — 13
🐤 LD — 11
🌱 GP — 9
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
🎗️ SNP — 58
🌹 Lab — 19
➡️ Ref — 19
🌳 Con — 13
🐤 LD — 11
🌱 GP — 9
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
January 15, 2026 at 1:10 PM
Our Projection on the latest Survation/True North Advisors poll for May's Holyrood Election
🎗️ SNP — 58
🌹 Lab — 19
➡️ Ref — 19
🌳 Con — 13
🐤 LD — 11
🌱 GP — 9
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
🎗️ SNP — 58
🌹 Lab — 19
➡️ Ref — 19
🌳 Con — 13
🐤 LD — 11
🌱 GP — 9
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
A projection based on a remarkable @yougov.co.uk for @itvnews.bsky.social and @cardiffuni.bsky.social
🌼 PC — 40
➡️ Ref — 27
🌱 GP — 15
🌹 Lab — 6
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
🌼 PC — 40
➡️ Ref — 27
🌱 GP — 15
🌹 Lab — 6
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
January 13, 2026 at 6:56 PM
A projection based on a remarkable @yougov.co.uk for @itvnews.bsky.social and @cardiffuni.bsky.social
🌼 PC — 40
➡️ Ref — 27
🌱 GP — 15
🌹 Lab — 6
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
🌼 PC — 40
➡️ Ref — 27
🌱 GP — 15
🌹 Lab — 6
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
Our projection based on the latest @findoutnow.bsky.social poll for May's Senedd election.
➡️ Ref — 34
🌼 PC — 33
🌹 Lab — 10
🌱 GP — 9
🌳 Con — 7
🐤 LD — 3
From devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
➡️ Ref — 34
🌼 PC — 33
🌹 Lab — 10
🌱 GP — 9
🌳 Con — 7
🐤 LD — 3
From devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
January 11, 2026 at 2:34 PM
Our projection based on the latest @findoutnow.bsky.social poll for May's Senedd election.
➡️ Ref — 34
🌼 PC — 33
🌹 Lab — 10
🌱 GP — 9
🌳 Con — 7
🐤 LD — 3
From devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
➡️ Ref — 34
🌼 PC — 33
🌹 Lab — 10
🌱 GP — 9
🌳 Con — 7
🐤 LD — 3
From devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
A DevolvedElection Projection based on the latest @mileendinstitute.bsky.social / @savanta.bsky.social poll.
Lab — 11 Seats
Con — 4
Ref — 4
Greens — 4
LD — 2
Ind/Other — 0
Lab — 11 Seats
Con — 4
Ref — 4
Greens — 4
LD — 2
Ind/Other — 0
January 8, 2026 at 8:40 AM
A DevolvedElection Projection based on the latest @mileendinstitute.bsky.social / @savanta.bsky.social poll.
Lab — 11 Seats
Con — 4
Ref — 4
Greens — 4
LD — 2
Ind/Other — 0
Lab — 11 Seats
Con — 4
Ref — 4
Greens — 4
LD — 2
Ind/Other — 0
After some upgrades to our system our first projection of the year for the next NI Assembly:
☘️ SF — 22
🦁 DUP — 21
🤝 AP — 14
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 9
Ⓣ TUV — 9
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
☘️ SF — 22
🦁 DUP — 21
🤝 AP — 14
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 9
Ⓣ TUV — 9
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
January 1, 2026 at 4:49 PM
After some upgrades to our system our first projection of the year for the next NI Assembly:
☘️ SF — 22
🦁 DUP — 21
🤝 AP — 14
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 9
Ⓣ TUV — 9
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
☘️ SF — 22
🦁 DUP — 21
🤝 AP — 14
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 9
Ⓣ TUV — 9
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
After some upgrades to our system our first projection of the year for May's Scottish Parliamentary elections is:
SNP 🎗️ — 62
Lab 🌹 — 18
Con 🌳 — 11
GP 🌱 — 11
LD 🐤 — 10
Ref ➡️ — 17
Alba 🔵 — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
SNP 🎗️ — 62
Lab 🌹 — 18
Con 🌳 — 11
GP 🌱 — 11
LD 🐤 — 10
Ref ➡️ — 17
Alba 🔵 — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
January 1, 2026 at 3:14 PM
After some upgrades to our system our first projection of the year for May's Scottish Parliamentary elections is:
SNP 🎗️ — 62
Lab 🌹 — 18
Con 🌳 — 11
GP 🌱 — 11
LD 🐤 — 10
Ref ➡️ — 17
Alba 🔵 — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
SNP 🎗️ — 62
Lab 🌹 — 18
Con 🌳 — 11
GP 🌱 — 11
LD 🐤 — 10
Ref ➡️ — 17
Alba 🔵 — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
Exactly this.
Scotland, Wales & NI are ridiculously underpolled.
Between late September and Late November:
- Scotland had 2 polls (1 of those was commssioned by a party)
- Wales had 1 - despite one of the most remarkable by-elections in recent history.
- NI had 1
Westminster had over 40.
Scotland, Wales & NI are ridiculously underpolled.
Between late September and Late November:
- Scotland had 2 polls (1 of those was commssioned by a party)
- Wales had 1 - despite one of the most remarkable by-elections in recent history.
- NI had 1
Westminster had over 40.
Come for the chart of shifting party support, stay for the fury at the fact we're going to have one of the most consequential Scottish (and definitely most consequential Welsh) elections since devolution, yet the Westminster media can't stop speculating about PM Farage in 2029 long enough to care.
December 30, 2025 at 12:05 PM
Exactly this.
Scotland, Wales & NI are ridiculously underpolled.
Between late September and Late November:
- Scotland had 2 polls (1 of those was commssioned by a party)
- Wales had 1 - despite one of the most remarkable by-elections in recent history.
- NI had 1
Westminster had over 40.
Scotland, Wales & NI are ridiculously underpolled.
Between late September and Late November:
- Scotland had 2 polls (1 of those was commssioned by a party)
- Wales had 1 - despite one of the most remarkable by-elections in recent history.
- NI had 1
Westminster had over 40.
Our projection for the 2026 Scottish Parliamentary election based on the latest @findoutnow.bsky.social poll for @scotnational.bsky.social
🎗️ SNP — 58
➡️ Ref — 27
🌹 Lab — 13
🌱 GP — 13
🐤 LD — 10
🌳 Con — 8
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
🎗️ SNP — 58
➡️ Ref — 27
🌹 Lab — 13
🌱 GP — 13
🐤 LD — 10
🌳 Con — 8
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
December 29, 2025 at 6:50 PM
Our projection for the 2026 Scottish Parliamentary election based on the latest @findoutnow.bsky.social poll for @scotnational.bsky.social
🎗️ SNP — 58
➡️ Ref — 27
🌹 Lab — 13
🌱 GP — 13
🐤 LD — 10
🌳 Con — 8
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
🎗️ SNP — 58
➡️ Ref — 27
🌹 Lab — 13
🌱 GP — 13
🐤 LD — 10
🌳 Con — 8
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
Our projection for the next NI Assembly election:
☘️ SF — 23
🦁 DUP — 19
🤝 AP — 12
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 11
Ⓣ TUV — 10
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
☘️ SF — 23
🦁 DUP — 19
🤝 AP — 12
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 11
Ⓣ TUV — 10
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
December 21, 2025 at 12:34 PM
Our projection for the next NI Assembly election:
☘️ SF — 23
🦁 DUP — 19
🤝 AP — 12
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 11
Ⓣ TUV — 10
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
☘️ SF — 23
🦁 DUP — 19
🤝 AP — 12
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 11
Ⓣ TUV — 10
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
Our latest Nowcast projection for Scottish Parliament election 2026:
SNP 🎗️ — 63
Lab 🌹 — 18
Ref ➡️ — 17
Con 🌳 — 11
GP 🌱 — 10
LD 🐤 — 10
Alba 🔵 — 0
Other ⚪ — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
SNP 🎗️ — 63
Lab 🌹 — 18
Ref ➡️ — 17
Con 🌳 — 11
GP 🌱 — 10
LD 🐤 — 10
Alba 🔵 — 0
Other ⚪ — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
December 21, 2025 at 11:44 AM
Our latest Nowcast projection for Scottish Parliament election 2026:
SNP 🎗️ — 63
Lab 🌹 — 18
Ref ➡️ — 17
Con 🌳 — 11
GP 🌱 — 10
LD 🐤 — 10
Alba 🔵 — 0
Other ⚪ — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
SNP 🎗️ — 63
Lab 🌹 — 18
Ref ➡️ — 17
Con 🌳 — 11
GP 🌱 — 10
LD 🐤 — 10
Alba 🔵 — 0
Other ⚪ — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
After some recent polls our Nowcast for Senedd 2026 is:
➡️ Ref — 37
🌼 PC — 33
🌹 Lab — 13
🌳 Con — 5
🌱 GP — 5
🐤 LD — 3
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
➡️ Ref — 37
🌼 PC — 33
🌹 Lab — 13
🌳 Con — 5
🌱 GP — 5
🐤 LD — 3
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
December 20, 2025 at 1:02 PM
After some recent polls our Nowcast for Senedd 2026 is:
➡️ Ref — 37
🌼 PC — 33
🌹 Lab — 13
🌳 Con — 5
🌱 GP — 5
🐤 LD — 3
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
➡️ Ref — 37
🌼 PC — 33
🌹 Lab — 13
🌳 Con — 5
🌱 GP — 5
🐤 LD — 3
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
We ran the new Senedd numbers 1000 times with regional variation and different polling errors.
Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan holds her seat just 15% of the time.
Rhun ap Iorwerth is safe as houses.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan holds her seat just 15% of the time.
Rhun ap Iorwerth is safe as houses.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
December 17, 2025 at 9:26 AM
We ran the new Senedd numbers 1000 times with regional variation and different polling errors.
Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan holds her seat just 15% of the time.
Rhun ap Iorwerth is safe as houses.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan holds her seat just 15% of the time.
Rhun ap Iorwerth is safe as houses.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects