We don't include any party commissioned polls, like the most recent one by Alba. This is because parties will only publically release polls that make themselves look good, it's good PR for them but would mess up our polling average.

This is a blanket rule and applies to all parties.

A huge caveat: This poll surveyed only 533 people over a three week period so the real error margin is pretty big.

This is a projection based solely on todays poll. The Greens are on 10 in our Nowcast.

Not all of these outcomes are equally likely and we only allow variation within the margin of error (about 2.5%).

There are some surprising outcomes that need small, but very specific, polling misses.

Thanks, and no offence taken! We know they did badly before but a lot has changed - Labour's collapse mainly.

The projection from this poll has it a three way tie, all on very low shares (which does feel harsh on Labour).

Reform are a bit further back in our Nowcast average.

We'll be ready!

These numbers are very similar to the recent by-election results in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse.

It puts Reform within 3% of winning in all three border seats.