Rory Johnston
@roryjohnston.bsky.social
oil market researcher
founder of https://CommodityContext.com
former bank economist
markets, code, barbecue
founder of https://CommodityContext.com
former bank economist
markets, code, barbecue
Pinned
🚨 NEW POST 🚨
𝗖𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗱𝗮'𝘀 𝗭𝗼𝗺𝗯𝗶𝗲 𝗣𝗶𝗽𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲
Like a zombie, Keystone XL just won’t die; the pipeline is simply too symbolically important to ‘rest in peace’, but even in theory it’s a mixed bag for Canada versus the alternatives.
Read the full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/canadas-zo...
𝗖𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗱𝗮'𝘀 𝗭𝗼𝗺𝗯𝗶𝗲 𝗣𝗶𝗽𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲
Like a zombie, Keystone XL just won’t die; the pipeline is simply too symbolically important to ‘rest in peace’, but even in theory it’s a mixed bag for Canada versus the alternatives.
Read the full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/canadas-zo...
How should the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) be managed?
And how has the SPR been mismanaged historically—or is it still being mismanaged today?
And how has the SPR been mismanaged historically—or is it still being mismanaged today?
a woman in a denim jacket is sitting at a table with a #schitts creek logo in the corner
ALT: a woman in a denim jacket is sitting at a table with a #schitts creek logo in the corner
media.tenor.com
November 10, 2025 at 7:19 PM
How should the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) be managed?
And how has the SPR been mismanaged historically—or is it still being mismanaged today?
And how has the SPR been mismanaged historically—or is it still being mismanaged today?
"could" doing a lot of lifting here
November 10, 2025 at 3:17 PM
"could" doing a lot of lifting here
I obviously know that the US Federal government does many more important things
but I’m REALLY excited at the thought of getting the CFTC Commitments of Traders data back
but I’m REALLY excited at the thought of getting the CFTC Commitments of Traders data back
Source says Democrats have enough votes in the Senate to move forward with a shutdown-ending bill.
November 10, 2025 at 12:36 AM
I obviously know that the US Federal government does many more important things
but I’m REALLY excited at the thought of getting the CFTC Commitments of Traders data back
but I’m REALLY excited at the thought of getting the CFTC Commitments of Traders data back
📚👷🏻♂️ office bookshelf project getting closer
November 9, 2025 at 8:25 PM
📚👷🏻♂️ office bookshelf project getting closer
🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧
🇨🇦🛢️ On the latest episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, I was joined by Kevin Birn of S&P Global to discuss the current position and both pipeline- and policy-dependent future of Canada’s oil sands industry.
Listen below or on your fav platform:
clearcommodity.net/podcasts/oil...
🇨🇦🛢️ On the latest episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, I was joined by Kevin Birn of S&P Global to discuss the current position and both pipeline- and policy-dependent future of Canada’s oil sands industry.
Listen below or on your fav platform:
clearcommodity.net/podcasts/oil...
November 9, 2025 at 2:42 PM
🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧
🇨🇦🛢️ On the latest episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, I was joined by Kevin Birn of S&P Global to discuss the current position and both pipeline- and policy-dependent future of Canada’s oil sands industry.
Listen below or on your fav platform:
clearcommodity.net/podcasts/oil...
🇨🇦🛢️ On the latest episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, I was joined by Kevin Birn of S&P Global to discuss the current position and both pipeline- and policy-dependent future of Canada’s oil sands industry.
Listen below or on your fav platform:
clearcommodity.net/podcasts/oil...
There’s an epidemic of restaurants offering schnitzel with spätzle and the latter is just noodles.
Help Help Me Please GIF
ALT: Help Help Me Please GIF
media.tenor.com
November 7, 2025 at 10:55 PM
There’s an epidemic of restaurants offering schnitzel with spätzle and the latter is just noodles.
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️
Crude prices fell, weighed down by both fundamental pressure and a broader equity market pullback; futures curves have resumed their descent toward prompt contango while refined product markets spiked.
Full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw45w25
Summary:
Crude prices fell, weighed down by both fundamental pressure and a broader equity market pullback; futures curves have resumed their descent toward prompt contango while refined product markets spiked.
Full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw45w25
Summary:
November 7, 2025 at 10:05 PM
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️
Crude prices fell, weighed down by both fundamental pressure and a broader equity market pullback; futures curves have resumed their descent toward prompt contango while refined product markets spiked.
Full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw45w25
Summary:
Crude prices fell, weighed down by both fundamental pressure and a broader equity market pullback; futures curves have resumed their descent toward prompt contango while refined product markets spiked.
Full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw45w25
Summary:
Microsoft: "I don't think you can overbuild"
November 7, 2025 at 7:03 PM
Microsoft: "I don't think you can overbuild"
*CHINA, EU SAID TO JOIN BRAZIL CARBON MARKET COALITION PROPOSAL
November 7, 2025 at 5:00 PM
*CHINA, EU SAID TO JOIN BRAZIL CARBON MARKET COALITION PROPOSAL
“But, I mean, we all know that OPEC doesn’t have a price target—they say they don’t even look at prices, right?”
November 7, 2025 at 3:19 PM
“But, I mean, we all know that OPEC doesn’t have a price target—they say they don’t even look at prices, right?”
gotta remain liquid, folks
November 7, 2025 at 2:28 PM
gotta remain liquid, folks
As everyone today mourns the lack of US employment data I'd like to remind y'all that this is the 6th week without a CFTC Commitments of Traders data release.
a woman is standing in front of a refrigerator and screaming .
ALT: a woman is standing in front of a refrigerator and screaming .
media.tenor.com
November 7, 2025 at 1:59 PM
As everyone today mourns the lack of US employment data I'd like to remind y'all that this is the 6th week without a CFTC Commitments of Traders data release.
💀 Gunvor-Lukoil deal dead.
Bloomberg: “Gunvor Group withdrew its offer for the international assets of sanctioned Russian oil producer Lukoil PJSC after the US Treasury Department said the oil and gas trader would never get a license and called it “the Kremlin’s puppet.””
Bloomberg: “Gunvor Group withdrew its offer for the international assets of sanctioned Russian oil producer Lukoil PJSC after the US Treasury Department said the oil and gas trader would never get a license and called it “the Kremlin’s puppet.””
November 6, 2025 at 10:22 PM
💀 Gunvor-Lukoil deal dead.
Bloomberg: “Gunvor Group withdrew its offer for the international assets of sanctioned Russian oil producer Lukoil PJSC after the US Treasury Department said the oil and gas trader would never get a license and called it “the Kremlin’s puppet.””
Bloomberg: “Gunvor Group withdrew its offer for the international assets of sanctioned Russian oil producer Lukoil PJSC after the US Treasury Department said the oil and gas trader would never get a license and called it “the Kremlin’s puppet.””
CRUDE TERM STRUCTURE
Crude curves weakening again, Brent prompt timespreads got as low as 20c earlier today (rebounded a bit since) while WTI still sitting at only 13c.
Crude curves weakening again, Brent prompt timespreads got as low as 20c earlier today (rebounded a bit since) while WTI still sitting at only 13c.
November 6, 2025 at 8:51 PM
CRUDE TERM STRUCTURE
Crude curves weakening again, Brent prompt timespreads got as low as 20c earlier today (rebounded a bit since) while WTI still sitting at only 13c.
Crude curves weakening again, Brent prompt timespreads got as low as 20c earlier today (rebounded a bit since) while WTI still sitting at only 13c.
🇨🇦🛢️🚢 Canadian seaborne crude oil exports.
Three ways to go.
Three ways to go.
November 5, 2025 at 5:08 PM
🇨🇦🛢️🚢 Canadian seaborne crude oil exports.
Three ways to go.
Three ways to go.
Carney getting closer to that majority.
November 5, 2025 at 4:18 PM
Carney getting closer to that majority.
Reposted by Rory Johnston
Really enjoyed reconnecting today with Rory Johnston, oil & gas analyst, publisher of a top newsletter on energy, and fellow Torontonian... follow him for actionable takes on commodity markets 👇
🚨 NEW POST 🚨
𝗖𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗱𝗮'𝘀 𝗭𝗼𝗺𝗯𝗶𝗲 𝗣𝗶𝗽𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲
Like a zombie, Keystone XL just won’t die; the pipeline is simply too symbolically important to ‘rest in peace’, but even in theory it’s a mixed bag for Canada versus the alternatives.
Read the full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/canadas-zo...
𝗖𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗱𝗮'𝘀 𝗭𝗼𝗺𝗯𝗶𝗲 𝗣𝗶𝗽𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲
Like a zombie, Keystone XL just won’t die; the pipeline is simply too symbolically important to ‘rest in peace’, but even in theory it’s a mixed bag for Canada versus the alternatives.
Read the full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/canadas-zo...
November 5, 2025 at 3:51 PM
Really enjoyed reconnecting today with Rory Johnston, oil & gas analyst, publisher of a top newsletter on energy, and fellow Torontonian... follow him for actionable takes on commodity markets 👇
Are budget day ribs a thing?
Because they are now.
Because they are now.
November 5, 2025 at 12:19 AM
Are budget day ribs a thing?
Because they are now.
Because they are now.
Trump thought this is how Iraq should have worked and now maybe he’ll try his way.
New York Times:
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/u...
New York Times:
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/u...
November 4, 2025 at 11:13 PM
Trump thought this is how Iraq should have worked and now maybe he’ll try his way.
New York Times:
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/u...
New York Times:
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/u...
In the new Canadian federal budget, we see a ~10% downgraded oil price outlook through end-decade compared to the last budget.
And a pretty darn narrow spread for oil prices between upside and downside scenarios.
And a pretty darn narrow spread for oil prices between upside and downside scenarios.
November 4, 2025 at 9:55 PM
In the new Canadian federal budget, we see a ~10% downgraded oil price outlook through end-decade compared to the last budget.
And a pretty darn narrow spread for oil prices between upside and downside scenarios.
And a pretty darn narrow spread for oil prices between upside and downside scenarios.
🇨🇦 Word count in the Canadian federal budget:
Crude: 4
Oil sands: 3
Oil and gas: 14
Pipeline: 5 (none of which are about actual pipelines)
Tanker: 0
LNG: 17
Natural gas: 14
Carbon: 94
Emission: 64
Crude: 4
Oil sands: 3
Oil and gas: 14
Pipeline: 5 (none of which are about actual pipelines)
Tanker: 0
LNG: 17
Natural gas: 14
Carbon: 94
Emission: 64
November 4, 2025 at 9:24 PM
🇨🇦 Word count in the Canadian federal budget:
Crude: 4
Oil sands: 3
Oil and gas: 14
Pipeline: 5 (none of which are about actual pipelines)
Tanker: 0
LNG: 17
Natural gas: 14
Carbon: 94
Emission: 64
Crude: 4
Oil sands: 3
Oil and gas: 14
Pipeline: 5 (none of which are about actual pipelines)
Tanker: 0
LNG: 17
Natural gas: 14
Carbon: 94
Emission: 64
🇨🇦 OIL AND GAS EMISSIONS CAP
I... have no idea what this means.
I... have no idea what this means.
November 4, 2025 at 9:24 PM
🇨🇦 OIL AND GAS EMISSIONS CAP
I... have no idea what this means.
I... have no idea what this means.
Reposted by Rory Johnston
🚨 NEW POST 🚨
𝗖𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗱𝗮'𝘀 𝗭𝗼𝗺𝗯𝗶𝗲 𝗣𝗶𝗽𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲
Like a zombie, Keystone XL just won’t die; the pipeline is simply too symbolically important to ‘rest in peace’, but even in theory it’s a mixed bag for Canada versus the alternatives.
Read the full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/canadas-zo...
𝗖𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗱𝗮'𝘀 𝗭𝗼𝗺𝗯𝗶𝗲 𝗣𝗶𝗽𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲
Like a zombie, Keystone XL just won’t die; the pipeline is simply too symbolically important to ‘rest in peace’, but even in theory it’s a mixed bag for Canada versus the alternatives.
Read the full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/canadas-zo...
November 3, 2025 at 3:07 PM
🚨 NEW POST 🚨
𝗖𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗱𝗮'𝘀 𝗭𝗼𝗺𝗯𝗶𝗲 𝗣𝗶𝗽𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲
Like a zombie, Keystone XL just won’t die; the pipeline is simply too symbolically important to ‘rest in peace’, but even in theory it’s a mixed bag for Canada versus the alternatives.
Read the full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/canadas-zo...
𝗖𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗱𝗮'𝘀 𝗭𝗼𝗺𝗯𝗶𝗲 𝗣𝗶𝗽𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲
Like a zombie, Keystone XL just won’t die; the pipeline is simply too symbolically important to ‘rest in peace’, but even in theory it’s a mixed bag for Canada versus the alternatives.
Read the full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/canadas-zo...
so many people love to confidently declare what commodity is or isn't needed in the context of export infrastructure expansion, based mostly off prior-confirming vibes and headlines
can't wait until they discover price signals
can't wait until they discover price signals
November 3, 2025 at 3:53 PM
so many people love to confidently declare what commodity is or isn't needed in the context of export infrastructure expansion, based mostly off prior-confirming vibes and headlines
can't wait until they discover price signals
can't wait until they discover price signals
when I'm working on geospatial visualizations and I try to convince myself I like non-Mercator projections
November 3, 2025 at 3:41 PM
when I'm working on geospatial visualizations and I try to convince myself I like non-Mercator projections