Rory Johnston
@roryjohnston.bsky.social
oil market researcher
founder of https://CommodityContext.com
former bank economist
markets, code, barbecue
founder of https://CommodityContext.com
former bank economist
markets, code, barbecue
Pinned
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️
📈📈 Crude prices rocketed to their highest level since last July on the combination of still-heightened Iran risk and the background energy of frothy commodity market sentiment and a plunging US dollar.
Read the full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw05w26
Summary:
📈📈 Crude prices rocketed to their highest level since last July on the combination of still-heightened Iran risk and the background energy of frothy commodity market sentiment and a plunging US dollar.
Read the full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw05w26
Summary:
You may think crude doesn’t trade over the weekend.
But it’s actually up in Bitcoin terms.
But it’s actually up in Bitcoin terms.
January 31, 2026 at 7:06 PM
You may think crude doesn’t trade over the weekend.
But it’s actually up in Bitcoin terms.
But it’s actually up in Bitcoin terms.
therapist helping you work through your ruminations:
January 31, 2026 at 3:43 AM
therapist helping you work through your ruminations:
Reposted by Rory Johnston
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️
📈📈 Crude prices rocketed to their highest level since last July on the combination of still-heightened Iran risk and the background energy of frothy commodity market sentiment and a plunging US dollar.
Read the full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw05w26
Summary:
📈📈 Crude prices rocketed to their highest level since last July on the combination of still-heightened Iran risk and the background energy of frothy commodity market sentiment and a plunging US dollar.
Read the full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw05w26
Summary:
January 30, 2026 at 9:42 PM
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️
📈📈 Crude prices rocketed to their highest level since last July on the combination of still-heightened Iran risk and the background energy of frothy commodity market sentiment and a plunging US dollar.
Read the full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw05w26
Summary:
📈📈 Crude prices rocketed to their highest level since last July on the combination of still-heightened Iran risk and the background energy of frothy commodity market sentiment and a plunging US dollar.
Read the full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw05w26
Summary:
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️
📈📈 Crude prices rocketed to their highest level since last July on the combination of still-heightened Iran risk and the background energy of frothy commodity market sentiment and a plunging US dollar.
Read the full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw05w26
Summary:
📈📈 Crude prices rocketed to their highest level since last July on the combination of still-heightened Iran risk and the background energy of frothy commodity market sentiment and a plunging US dollar.
Read the full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw05w26
Summary:
January 30, 2026 at 9:42 PM
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️
📈📈 Crude prices rocketed to their highest level since last July on the combination of still-heightened Iran risk and the background energy of frothy commodity market sentiment and a plunging US dollar.
Read the full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw05w26
Summary:
📈📈 Crude prices rocketed to their highest level since last July on the combination of still-heightened Iran risk and the background energy of frothy commodity market sentiment and a plunging US dollar.
Read the full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw05w26
Summary:
PUBLISHED AS ANNEX TO MELANIA MOVIE
MUST SIT THROUGH FULL FILM, DOCUMENTS AT END OF CREDITS
MUST SIT THROUGH FULL FILM, DOCUMENTS AT END OF CREDITS
U.S. JUSTICE DEPARTMENT RELEASES MORE JEFFREY EPSTEIN DOCUMENTS
January 30, 2026 at 4:13 PM
PUBLISHED AS ANNEX TO MELANIA MOVIE
MUST SIT THROUGH FULL FILM, DOCUMENTS AT END OF CREDITS
MUST SIT THROUGH FULL FILM, DOCUMENTS AT END OF CREDITS
AI will end up conquering us because we decided we loved sycophantic assistants and now that they’re chatting they’re going to end up agree-spiralling to our destruction.
We need more stubborn, toxic contrarian AIs to short-circuit our automated doom.
We need more stubborn, toxic contrarian AIs to short-circuit our automated doom.
January 30, 2026 at 2:26 PM
AI will end up conquering us because we decided we loved sycophantic assistants and now that they’re chatting they’re going to end up agree-spiralling to our destruction.
We need more stubborn, toxic contrarian AIs to short-circuit our automated doom.
We need more stubborn, toxic contrarian AIs to short-circuit our automated doom.
Argus: "The changes [to Venezuela's hydrocarbon laws] mean that in some oil projects the government's take, in taxes plus royalties, will not automatically be of 83.33pc, but will instead hover from 65-80pc"
Link: www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-...
Link: www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-...
January 30, 2026 at 2:22 PM
Argus: "The changes [to Venezuela's hydrocarbon laws] mean that in some oil projects the government's take, in taxes plus royalties, will not automatically be of 83.33pc, but will instead hover from 65-80pc"
Link: www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-...
Link: www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-...
Reposted by Rory Johnston
Excellent read.
Read the full report here: www.commoditycontext.com/p/barreling-...
Barreling Ahead: Realizing—or Denying?—The Glut
The oil market in 2025 ended up much looser than anyone expected and expectations for 2026 balances are beginning to tighten after nearly a year of ever-weaker outlooks.
www.commoditycontext.com
January 30, 2026 at 4:11 AM
Excellent read.
🤔 do I acquire my own company with one of my other companies
January 29, 2026 at 10:20 PM
🤔 do I acquire my own company with one of my other companies
OFFICE OF FOREIGN ASSETS CONTROL
Venezuela Sanctions Regulations
31 CFR part 591
GENERAL LICENSE NO. 46
Authorizing Certain Activities Involving Venezuelan-Origin Oil
Link: ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actio...
Venezuela Sanctions Regulations
31 CFR part 591
GENERAL LICENSE NO. 46
Authorizing Certain Activities Involving Venezuelan-Origin Oil
Link: ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actio...
January 29, 2026 at 10:00 PM
OFFICE OF FOREIGN ASSETS CONTROL
Venezuela Sanctions Regulations
31 CFR part 591
GENERAL LICENSE NO. 46
Authorizing Certain Activities Involving Venezuelan-Origin Oil
Link: ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actio...
Venezuela Sanctions Regulations
31 CFR part 591
GENERAL LICENSE NO. 46
Authorizing Certain Activities Involving Venezuelan-Origin Oil
Link: ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actio...
During the peak of the Israel-Iran War rally in crude prices last June the entire Brent futures curve shifted back into backwardation (blue curve)
Today we've still in smiley-face curve land (white)
But there's your comp where what it'll look like if we ramp a level higher here
Today we've still in smiley-face curve land (white)
But there's your comp where what it'll look like if we ramp a level higher here
January 29, 2026 at 9:38 PM
During the peak of the Israel-Iran War rally in crude prices last June the entire Brent futures curve shifted back into backwardation (blue curve)
Today we've still in smiley-face curve land (white)
But there's your comp where what it'll look like if we ramp a level higher here
Today we've still in smiley-face curve land (white)
But there's your comp where what it'll look like if we ramp a level higher here
Oil Context Weekly basically just has structurally permanent sections for developments in Venezuela, Iran, Russia, and Kazakhstan at this point.
Getting hard to remember that there were weeks during Biden admin where you were really scraping the bottom for things to talk about.
Getting hard to remember that there were weeks during Biden admin where you were really scraping the bottom for things to talk about.
January 29, 2026 at 9:10 PM
Oil Context Weekly basically just has structurally permanent sections for developments in Venezuela, Iran, Russia, and Kazakhstan at this point.
Getting hard to remember that there were weeks during Biden admin where you were really scraping the bottom for things to talk about.
Getting hard to remember that there were weeks during Biden admin where you were really scraping the bottom for things to talk about.
has anyone considered unplugging the market and plugging it back in?
January 29, 2026 at 3:35 PM
has anyone considered unplugging the market and plugging it back in?
Crude futures curve torqued higher again by Iran strike risk—white today, blue end-December.
Precautionary demand galore.
We've seen this story before.
Precautionary demand galore.
We've seen this story before.
January 29, 2026 at 2:22 PM
Crude futures curve torqued higher again by Iran strike risk—white today, blue end-December.
Precautionary demand galore.
We've seen this story before.
Precautionary demand galore.
We've seen this story before.
🚨 NEW POST 🚨
Barreling Ahead: Realizing—or Denying?—The Glut
The oil market in 2025 ended up much looser than anyone expected by the IEA/EIA/OPEC, and expectations for 2026 balances are beginning to tighten after nearly a year of ever-weaker outlooks.
Full report in reply.
Barreling Ahead: Realizing—or Denying?—The Glut
The oil market in 2025 ended up much looser than anyone expected by the IEA/EIA/OPEC, and expectations for 2026 balances are beginning to tighten after nearly a year of ever-weaker outlooks.
Full report in reply.
January 29, 2026 at 2:11 PM
🚨 NEW POST 🚨
Barreling Ahead: Realizing—or Denying?—The Glut
The oil market in 2025 ended up much looser than anyone expected by the IEA/EIA/OPEC, and expectations for 2026 balances are beginning to tighten after nearly a year of ever-weaker outlooks.
Full report in reply.
Barreling Ahead: Realizing—or Denying?—The Glut
The oil market in 2025 ended up much looser than anyone expected by the IEA/EIA/OPEC, and expectations for 2026 balances are beginning to tighten after nearly a year of ever-weaker outlooks.
Full report in reply.
Some folks saying this oil price rally is about supply losses.
But the big realized production drops largely occurred in December and early January—if anything, the two largest realized hits to supply (Venezuela blockade and CPC outage) are beginning to resolve, not get worse.
But the big realized production drops largely occurred in December and early January—if anything, the two largest realized hits to supply (Venezuela blockade and CPC outage) are beginning to resolve, not get worse.
In the latest episode of Trump is Bearish for Oil Prices, the president’s renewed Iranian sabre rattling has pushed Brent crude nearly $10/bbl higher through January to more than $70/bbl.
January 29, 2026 at 1:59 PM
Some folks saying this oil price rally is about supply losses.
But the big realized production drops largely occurred in December and early January—if anything, the two largest realized hits to supply (Venezuela blockade and CPC outage) are beginning to resolve, not get worse.
But the big realized production drops largely occurred in December and early January—if anything, the two largest realized hits to supply (Venezuela blockade and CPC outage) are beginning to resolve, not get worse.
In the latest episode of Trump is Bearish for Oil Prices, the president’s renewed Iranian sabre rattling has pushed Brent crude nearly $10/bbl higher through January to more than $70/bbl.
January 29, 2026 at 12:16 PM
In the latest episode of Trump is Bearish for Oil Prices, the president’s renewed Iranian sabre rattling has pushed Brent crude nearly $10/bbl higher through January to more than $70/bbl.
Shout out to the unequal thruple set to watch Melania alone on opening night this Friday at Scotiabank Theatre in Toronto.
Only three seats sold across four showings.
Only three seats sold across four showings.
January 29, 2026 at 12:44 AM
Shout out to the unequal thruple set to watch Melania alone on opening night this Friday at Scotiabank Theatre in Toronto.
Only three seats sold across four showings.
Only three seats sold across four showings.
My science/engineering obsessed 5-year-old has recently gotten really into Myth Busters and this parenting thing just keeps getting better and better.
a man in a bomb suit says " when in doubt ... c4 "
ALT: a man in a bomb suit says " when in doubt ... c4 "
media.tenor.com
January 27, 2026 at 10:26 PM
My science/engineering obsessed 5-year-old has recently gotten really into Myth Busters and this parenting thing just keeps getting better and better.
We hear a lot about IEA/EIA vs OPEC on oil market demand data, but there's much more than demand that divides the major agency balances.
Check out that gap on non-OPEC+ supply growth—for LAST YEAR.
OPEC data still missing the acceleration in non-OPEC+ Americas supply growth.
Check out that gap on non-OPEC+ supply growth—for LAST YEAR.
OPEC data still missing the acceleration in non-OPEC+ Americas supply growth.
January 27, 2026 at 7:10 PM
We hear a lot about IEA/EIA vs OPEC on oil market demand data, but there's much more than demand that divides the major agency balances.
Check out that gap on non-OPEC+ supply growth—for LAST YEAR.
OPEC data still missing the acceleration in non-OPEC+ Americas supply growth.
Check out that gap on non-OPEC+ supply growth—for LAST YEAR.
OPEC data still missing the acceleration in non-OPEC+ Americas supply growth.
The claim that Canada doesn't export crude to India, via the Reuters piece below, is incorrect but understandable.
Canada doesn't ship to India via our own ports, but does regularly ship to India via US Gulf Coast re-exports. Typically 1-2 VLCCs-worth a month (60-120 kbpd)
Canada doesn't ship to India via our own ports, but does regularly ship to India via US Gulf Coast re-exports. Typically 1-2 VLCCs-worth a month (60-120 kbpd)
January 27, 2026 at 6:18 PM
The claim that Canada doesn't export crude to India, via the Reuters piece below, is incorrect but understandable.
Canada doesn't ship to India via our own ports, but does regularly ship to India via US Gulf Coast re-exports. Typically 1-2 VLCCs-worth a month (60-120 kbpd)
Canada doesn't ship to India via our own ports, but does regularly ship to India via US Gulf Coast re-exports. Typically 1-2 VLCCs-worth a month (60-120 kbpd)
What are the chances that Donald Trump places 100% tariffs on Canadian oil imports?
Less than 1 in 4,600,000 daily barrels, Commodity Context says.
Less than 1 in 4,600,000 daily barrels, Commodity Context says.
January 26, 2026 at 11:00 PM
What are the chances that Donald Trump places 100% tariffs on Canadian oil imports?
Less than 1 in 4,600,000 daily barrels, Commodity Context says.
Less than 1 in 4,600,000 daily barrels, Commodity Context says.
Latest Canadian leader favourability polling.
Pretty lopsided.
Pretty lopsided.
January 26, 2026 at 3:31 PM
Latest Canadian leader favourability polling.
Pretty lopsided.
Pretty lopsided.
the issue with the oil:*whatever* (gold, silver, etc.) ratio to say where oil prices *should be* is that oil production costs are not denominated in *whatever*
costs are rising, sure, but not as much as implied by *whatever* asset chart
supply & demand rule everything around me
costs are rising, sure, but not as much as implied by *whatever* asset chart
supply & demand rule everything around me
January 26, 2026 at 2:29 PM
the issue with the oil:*whatever* (gold, silver, etc.) ratio to say where oil prices *should be* is that oil production costs are not denominated in *whatever*
costs are rising, sure, but not as much as implied by *whatever* asset chart
supply & demand rule everything around me
costs are rising, sure, but not as much as implied by *whatever* asset chart
supply & demand rule everything around me