Rory Johnston
@roryjohnston.bsky.social
oil market researcher
founder of https://CommodityContext.com
former bank economist
markets, code, barbecue
founder of https://CommodityContext.com
former bank economist
markets, code, barbecue
Pinned
🚨 NEW POST 🚨
𝗖𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗱𝗮'𝘀 𝗭𝗼𝗺𝗯𝗶𝗲 𝗣𝗶𝗽𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲
Like a zombie, Keystone XL just won’t die; the pipeline is simply too symbolically important to ‘rest in peace’, but even in theory it’s a mixed bag for Canada versus the alternatives.
Read the full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/canadas-zo...
𝗖𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗱𝗮'𝘀 𝗭𝗼𝗺𝗯𝗶𝗲 𝗣𝗶𝗽𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲
Like a zombie, Keystone XL just won’t die; the pipeline is simply too symbolically important to ‘rest in peace’, but even in theory it’s a mixed bag for Canada versus the alternatives.
Read the full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/canadas-zo...
Happy Saturday!
☕️ Know what pairs perfectly with that coffee you’re drinking?
My latest public piece on the SPR.
Check it out and let me know where you disagree (or agree! Just always a bit rarer in my experience)
☕️ Know what pairs perfectly with that coffee you’re drinking?
My latest public piece on the SPR.
Check it out and let me know where you disagree (or agree! Just always a bit rarer in my experience)
🚨 NEW *PUBLIC* POST 🚨
In my latest for @thedispatchmedia.bsky.social, I explore the evolving role of the US Strategic Petrleum Reserve in an era of American energy dominance
The SPR’s full strategic value is *bi-directional*, and it isn’t prepared for its buyer role
thedispatch.com/newsletter/d...
In my latest for @thedispatchmedia.bsky.social, I explore the evolving role of the US Strategic Petrleum Reserve in an era of American energy dominance
The SPR’s full strategic value is *bi-directional*, and it isn’t prepared for its buyer role
thedispatch.com/newsletter/d...
Rethinking the Role of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve
The U.S. should leverage its energy dominance to use the reserve strategically.
thedispatch.com
November 15, 2025 at 1:53 PM
Happy Saturday!
☕️ Know what pairs perfectly with that coffee you’re drinking?
My latest public piece on the SPR.
Check it out and let me know where you disagree (or agree! Just always a bit rarer in my experience)
☕️ Know what pairs perfectly with that coffee you’re drinking?
My latest public piece on the SPR.
Check it out and let me know where you disagree (or agree! Just always a bit rarer in my experience)
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️
Ukrainian attack on major Russian oil port shocks oil market back to life just as WTI was on the edge of prompt contango.
Full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw46w25
Summary:
Ukrainian attack on major Russian oil port shocks oil market back to life just as WTI was on the edge of prompt contango.
Full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw46w25
Summary:
November 14, 2025 at 9:32 PM
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️
Ukrainian attack on major Russian oil port shocks oil market back to life just as WTI was on the edge of prompt contango.
Full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw46w25
Summary:
Ukrainian attack on major Russian oil port shocks oil market back to life just as WTI was on the edge of prompt contango.
Full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw46w25
Summary:
not only does the IEA's resurrected Current Policies Scenario show oil demand not peaking before 2050 but it shows demand growth actually accelerating again in the ~2040s
November 14, 2025 at 6:39 PM
not only does the IEA's resurrected Current Policies Scenario show oil demand not peaking before 2050 but it shows demand growth actually accelerating again in the ~2040s
🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧
The US has built up a *massive* military force off Venezuela’s coast and feels poised to strike
In the latest episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, I spoke with
@fmonaldi.bsky.social to help me understand what’s happening and what’s at stake for VZ’s oil industry.
The US has built up a *massive* military force off Venezuela’s coast and feels poised to strike
In the latest episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, I spoke with
@fmonaldi.bsky.social to help me understand what’s happening and what’s at stake for VZ’s oil industry.
November 14, 2025 at 5:42 PM
🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧
The US has built up a *massive* military force off Venezuela’s coast and feels poised to strike
In the latest episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, I spoke with
@fmonaldi.bsky.social to help me understand what’s happening and what’s at stake for VZ’s oil industry.
The US has built up a *massive* military force off Venezuela’s coast and feels poised to strike
In the latest episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, I spoke with
@fmonaldi.bsky.social to help me understand what’s happening and what’s at stake for VZ’s oil industry.
what if the threat of tight oil markets was actually a kind of a geopolitical conflict limiting mechanism?
with broad expectations of looser oil markets, feels like everyone going off leash and ramping up the bombs
the cure for loose oil markets is the expectation of loose oil markets
with broad expectations of looser oil markets, feels like everyone going off leash and ramping up the bombs
the cure for loose oil markets is the expectation of loose oil markets
November 14, 2025 at 5:06 PM
what if the threat of tight oil markets was actually a kind of a geopolitical conflict limiting mechanism?
with broad expectations of looser oil markets, feels like everyone going off leash and ramping up the bombs
the cure for loose oil markets is the expectation of loose oil markets
with broad expectations of looser oil markets, feels like everyone going off leash and ramping up the bombs
the cure for loose oil markets is the expectation of loose oil markets
*UKRAINE CLAIMS ATTACK ON RUSSIA'S SARATOV REFINERY OVERNIGHT
an elderly woman is sitting on a couch and talking to cersei , i want her to know it was me .
ALT: an elderly woman is sitting on a couch and talking to cersei , i want her to know it was me .
media.tenor.com
November 14, 2025 at 2:52 PM
*UKRAINE CLAIMS ATTACK ON RUSSIA'S SARATOV REFINERY OVERNIGHT
🚨 NEW *PUBLIC* POST 🚨
In my latest for @thedispatchmedia.bsky.social, I explore the evolving role of the US Strategic Petrleum Reserve in an era of American energy dominance
The SPR’s full strategic value is *bi-directional*, and it isn’t prepared for its buyer role
thedispatch.com/newsletter/d...
In my latest for @thedispatchmedia.bsky.social, I explore the evolving role of the US Strategic Petrleum Reserve in an era of American energy dominance
The SPR’s full strategic value is *bi-directional*, and it isn’t prepared for its buyer role
thedispatch.com/newsletter/d...
Rethinking the Role of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve
The U.S. should leverage its energy dominance to use the reserve strategically.
thedispatch.com
November 14, 2025 at 1:56 PM
🚨 NEW *PUBLIC* POST 🚨
In my latest for @thedispatchmedia.bsky.social, I explore the evolving role of the US Strategic Petrleum Reserve in an era of American energy dominance
The SPR’s full strategic value is *bi-directional*, and it isn’t prepared for its buyer role
thedispatch.com/newsletter/d...
In my latest for @thedispatchmedia.bsky.social, I explore the evolving role of the US Strategic Petrleum Reserve in an era of American energy dominance
The SPR’s full strategic value is *bi-directional*, and it isn’t prepared for its buyer role
thedispatch.com/newsletter/d...
Carlyle swooping in to eat Gunvor’s lunch.
“U.S. private equity giant Carlyle is exploring options to buy foreign assets from Russian oil major Lukoil, three sources familiar with the situation said.”
“U.S. private equity giant Carlyle is exploring options to buy foreign assets from Russian oil major Lukoil, three sources familiar with the situation said.”
November 13, 2025 at 6:19 PM
Carlyle swooping in to eat Gunvor’s lunch.
“U.S. private equity giant Carlyle is exploring options to buy foreign assets from Russian oil major Lukoil, three sources familiar with the situation said.”
“U.S. private equity giant Carlyle is exploring options to buy foreign assets from Russian oil major Lukoil, three sources familiar with the situation said.”
Latest IEA "OPEC+ crude production assumes curbs stay in place from December" supply-demand scenario outlook.
November 13, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Latest IEA "OPEC+ crude production assumes curbs stay in place from December" supply-demand scenario outlook.
Nothing crueler than the parental double-tap head cold.
a man in a suit and tie is sitting in front of a window and says " i just want it to stop "
ALT: a man in a suit and tie is sitting in front of a window and says " i just want it to stop "
media.tenor.com
November 11, 2025 at 10:52 PM
Nothing crueler than the parental double-tap head cold.
How should the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) be managed?
And how has the SPR been mismanaged historically—or is it still being mismanaged today?
And how has the SPR been mismanaged historically—or is it still being mismanaged today?
a woman in a denim jacket is sitting at a table with a #schitts creek logo in the corner
ALT: a woman in a denim jacket is sitting at a table with a #schitts creek logo in the corner
media.tenor.com
November 10, 2025 at 7:19 PM
How should the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) be managed?
And how has the SPR been mismanaged historically—or is it still being mismanaged today?
And how has the SPR been mismanaged historically—or is it still being mismanaged today?
"could" doing a lot of lifting here
November 10, 2025 at 3:17 PM
"could" doing a lot of lifting here
I obviously know that the US Federal government does many more important things
but I’m REALLY excited at the thought of getting the CFTC Commitments of Traders data back
but I’m REALLY excited at the thought of getting the CFTC Commitments of Traders data back
Source says Democrats have enough votes in the Senate to move forward with a shutdown-ending bill.
November 10, 2025 at 12:36 AM
I obviously know that the US Federal government does many more important things
but I’m REALLY excited at the thought of getting the CFTC Commitments of Traders data back
but I’m REALLY excited at the thought of getting the CFTC Commitments of Traders data back
📚👷🏻♂️ office bookshelf project getting closer
November 9, 2025 at 8:25 PM
📚👷🏻♂️ office bookshelf project getting closer
🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧
🇨🇦🛢️ On the latest episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, I was joined by Kevin Birn of S&P Global to discuss the current position and both pipeline- and policy-dependent future of Canada’s oil sands industry.
Listen below or on your fav platform:
clearcommodity.net/podcasts/oil...
🇨🇦🛢️ On the latest episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, I was joined by Kevin Birn of S&P Global to discuss the current position and both pipeline- and policy-dependent future of Canada’s oil sands industry.
Listen below or on your fav platform:
clearcommodity.net/podcasts/oil...
November 9, 2025 at 2:42 PM
🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧
🇨🇦🛢️ On the latest episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, I was joined by Kevin Birn of S&P Global to discuss the current position and both pipeline- and policy-dependent future of Canada’s oil sands industry.
Listen below or on your fav platform:
clearcommodity.net/podcasts/oil...
🇨🇦🛢️ On the latest episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, I was joined by Kevin Birn of S&P Global to discuss the current position and both pipeline- and policy-dependent future of Canada’s oil sands industry.
Listen below or on your fav platform:
clearcommodity.net/podcasts/oil...
There’s an epidemic of restaurants offering schnitzel with spätzle and the latter is just noodles.
Help Help Me Please GIF
ALT: Help Help Me Please GIF
media.tenor.com
November 7, 2025 at 10:55 PM
There’s an epidemic of restaurants offering schnitzel with spätzle and the latter is just noodles.
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️
Crude prices fell, weighed down by both fundamental pressure and a broader equity market pullback; futures curves have resumed their descent toward prompt contango while refined product markets spiked.
Full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw45w25
Summary:
Crude prices fell, weighed down by both fundamental pressure and a broader equity market pullback; futures curves have resumed their descent toward prompt contango while refined product markets spiked.
Full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw45w25
Summary:
November 7, 2025 at 10:05 PM
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️
Crude prices fell, weighed down by both fundamental pressure and a broader equity market pullback; futures curves have resumed their descent toward prompt contango while refined product markets spiked.
Full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw45w25
Summary:
Crude prices fell, weighed down by both fundamental pressure and a broader equity market pullback; futures curves have resumed their descent toward prompt contango while refined product markets spiked.
Full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw45w25
Summary:
Microsoft: "I don't think you can overbuild"
November 7, 2025 at 7:03 PM
Microsoft: "I don't think you can overbuild"
*CHINA, EU SAID TO JOIN BRAZIL CARBON MARKET COALITION PROPOSAL
November 7, 2025 at 5:00 PM
*CHINA, EU SAID TO JOIN BRAZIL CARBON MARKET COALITION PROPOSAL
“But, I mean, we all know that OPEC doesn’t have a price target—they say they don’t even look at prices, right?”
November 7, 2025 at 3:19 PM
“But, I mean, we all know that OPEC doesn’t have a price target—they say they don’t even look at prices, right?”
gotta remain liquid, folks
November 7, 2025 at 2:28 PM
gotta remain liquid, folks
As everyone today mourns the lack of US employment data I'd like to remind y'all that this is the 6th week without a CFTC Commitments of Traders data release.
a woman is standing in front of a refrigerator and screaming .
ALT: a woman is standing in front of a refrigerator and screaming .
media.tenor.com
November 7, 2025 at 1:59 PM
As everyone today mourns the lack of US employment data I'd like to remind y'all that this is the 6th week without a CFTC Commitments of Traders data release.
💀 Gunvor-Lukoil deal dead.
Bloomberg: “Gunvor Group withdrew its offer for the international assets of sanctioned Russian oil producer Lukoil PJSC after the US Treasury Department said the oil and gas trader would never get a license and called it “the Kremlin’s puppet.””
Bloomberg: “Gunvor Group withdrew its offer for the international assets of sanctioned Russian oil producer Lukoil PJSC after the US Treasury Department said the oil and gas trader would never get a license and called it “the Kremlin’s puppet.””
November 6, 2025 at 10:22 PM
💀 Gunvor-Lukoil deal dead.
Bloomberg: “Gunvor Group withdrew its offer for the international assets of sanctioned Russian oil producer Lukoil PJSC after the US Treasury Department said the oil and gas trader would never get a license and called it “the Kremlin’s puppet.””
Bloomberg: “Gunvor Group withdrew its offer for the international assets of sanctioned Russian oil producer Lukoil PJSC after the US Treasury Department said the oil and gas trader would never get a license and called it “the Kremlin’s puppet.””
CRUDE TERM STRUCTURE
Crude curves weakening again, Brent prompt timespreads got as low as 20c earlier today (rebounded a bit since) while WTI still sitting at only 13c.
Crude curves weakening again, Brent prompt timespreads got as low as 20c earlier today (rebounded a bit since) while WTI still sitting at only 13c.
November 6, 2025 at 8:51 PM
CRUDE TERM STRUCTURE
Crude curves weakening again, Brent prompt timespreads got as low as 20c earlier today (rebounded a bit since) while WTI still sitting at only 13c.
Crude curves weakening again, Brent prompt timespreads got as low as 20c earlier today (rebounded a bit since) while WTI still sitting at only 13c.