Rory Johnston
@roryjohnston.bsky.social
oil market researcher
founder of https://CommodityContext.com
former bank economist
markets, code, barbecue
founder of https://CommodityContext.com
former bank economist
markets, code, barbecue
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️
Ukrainian attack on major Russian oil port shocks oil market back to life just as WTI was on the edge of prompt contango.
Full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw46w25
Summary:
Ukrainian attack on major Russian oil port shocks oil market back to life just as WTI was on the edge of prompt contango.
Full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw46w25
Summary:
November 14, 2025 at 9:32 PM
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️
Ukrainian attack on major Russian oil port shocks oil market back to life just as WTI was on the edge of prompt contango.
Full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw46w25
Summary:
Ukrainian attack on major Russian oil port shocks oil market back to life just as WTI was on the edge of prompt contango.
Full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw46w25
Summary:
not only does the IEA's resurrected Current Policies Scenario show oil demand not peaking before 2050 but it shows demand growth actually accelerating again in the ~2040s
November 14, 2025 at 6:39 PM
not only does the IEA's resurrected Current Policies Scenario show oil demand not peaking before 2050 but it shows demand growth actually accelerating again in the ~2040s
🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧
The US has built up a *massive* military force off Venezuela’s coast and feels poised to strike
In the latest episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, I spoke with
@fmonaldi.bsky.social to help me understand what’s happening and what’s at stake for VZ’s oil industry.
The US has built up a *massive* military force off Venezuela’s coast and feels poised to strike
In the latest episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, I spoke with
@fmonaldi.bsky.social to help me understand what’s happening and what’s at stake for VZ’s oil industry.
November 14, 2025 at 5:42 PM
🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧
The US has built up a *massive* military force off Venezuela’s coast and feels poised to strike
In the latest episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, I spoke with
@fmonaldi.bsky.social to help me understand what’s happening and what’s at stake for VZ’s oil industry.
The US has built up a *massive* military force off Venezuela’s coast and feels poised to strike
In the latest episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, I spoke with
@fmonaldi.bsky.social to help me understand what’s happening and what’s at stake for VZ’s oil industry.
Carlyle swooping in to eat Gunvor’s lunch.
“U.S. private equity giant Carlyle is exploring options to buy foreign assets from Russian oil major Lukoil, three sources familiar with the situation said.”
“U.S. private equity giant Carlyle is exploring options to buy foreign assets from Russian oil major Lukoil, three sources familiar with the situation said.”
November 13, 2025 at 6:19 PM
Carlyle swooping in to eat Gunvor’s lunch.
“U.S. private equity giant Carlyle is exploring options to buy foreign assets from Russian oil major Lukoil, three sources familiar with the situation said.”
“U.S. private equity giant Carlyle is exploring options to buy foreign assets from Russian oil major Lukoil, three sources familiar with the situation said.”
Here's what the same scenario outlook looked like last month:
November 13, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Here's what the same scenario outlook looked like last month:
Latest IEA "OPEC+ crude production assumes curbs stay in place from December" supply-demand scenario outlook.
November 13, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Latest IEA "OPEC+ crude production assumes curbs stay in place from December" supply-demand scenario outlook.
"could" doing a lot of lifting here
November 10, 2025 at 3:17 PM
"could" doing a lot of lifting here
📚👷🏻♂️ office bookshelf project getting closer
November 9, 2025 at 8:25 PM
📚👷🏻♂️ office bookshelf project getting closer
🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧
🇨🇦🛢️ On the latest episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, I was joined by Kevin Birn of S&P Global to discuss the current position and both pipeline- and policy-dependent future of Canada’s oil sands industry.
Listen below or on your fav platform:
clearcommodity.net/podcasts/oil...
🇨🇦🛢️ On the latest episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, I was joined by Kevin Birn of S&P Global to discuss the current position and both pipeline- and policy-dependent future of Canada’s oil sands industry.
Listen below or on your fav platform:
clearcommodity.net/podcasts/oil...
November 9, 2025 at 2:42 PM
🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧
🇨🇦🛢️ On the latest episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, I was joined by Kevin Birn of S&P Global to discuss the current position and both pipeline- and policy-dependent future of Canada’s oil sands industry.
Listen below or on your fav platform:
clearcommodity.net/podcasts/oil...
🇨🇦🛢️ On the latest episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, I was joined by Kevin Birn of S&P Global to discuss the current position and both pipeline- and policy-dependent future of Canada’s oil sands industry.
Listen below or on your fav platform:
clearcommodity.net/podcasts/oil...
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️
Crude prices fell, weighed down by both fundamental pressure and a broader equity market pullback; futures curves have resumed their descent toward prompt contango while refined product markets spiked.
Full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw45w25
Summary:
Crude prices fell, weighed down by both fundamental pressure and a broader equity market pullback; futures curves have resumed their descent toward prompt contango while refined product markets spiked.
Full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw45w25
Summary:
November 7, 2025 at 10:05 PM
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️
Crude prices fell, weighed down by both fundamental pressure and a broader equity market pullback; futures curves have resumed their descent toward prompt contango while refined product markets spiked.
Full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw45w25
Summary:
Crude prices fell, weighed down by both fundamental pressure and a broader equity market pullback; futures curves have resumed their descent toward prompt contango while refined product markets spiked.
Full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw45w25
Summary:
Microsoft: "I don't think you can overbuild"
November 7, 2025 at 7:03 PM
Microsoft: "I don't think you can overbuild"
“But, I mean, we all know that OPEC doesn’t have a price target—they say they don’t even look at prices, right?”
November 7, 2025 at 3:19 PM
“But, I mean, we all know that OPEC doesn’t have a price target—they say they don’t even look at prices, right?”
gotta remain liquid, folks
November 7, 2025 at 2:28 PM
gotta remain liquid, folks
💀 Gunvor-Lukoil deal dead.
Bloomberg: “Gunvor Group withdrew its offer for the international assets of sanctioned Russian oil producer Lukoil PJSC after the US Treasury Department said the oil and gas trader would never get a license and called it “the Kremlin’s puppet.””
Bloomberg: “Gunvor Group withdrew its offer for the international assets of sanctioned Russian oil producer Lukoil PJSC after the US Treasury Department said the oil and gas trader would never get a license and called it “the Kremlin’s puppet.””
November 6, 2025 at 10:22 PM
💀 Gunvor-Lukoil deal dead.
Bloomberg: “Gunvor Group withdrew its offer for the international assets of sanctioned Russian oil producer Lukoil PJSC after the US Treasury Department said the oil and gas trader would never get a license and called it “the Kremlin’s puppet.””
Bloomberg: “Gunvor Group withdrew its offer for the international assets of sanctioned Russian oil producer Lukoil PJSC after the US Treasury Department said the oil and gas trader would never get a license and called it “the Kremlin’s puppet.””
CRUDE TERM STRUCTURE
Crude curves weakening again, Brent prompt timespreads got as low as 20c earlier today (rebounded a bit since) while WTI still sitting at only 13c.
Crude curves weakening again, Brent prompt timespreads got as low as 20c earlier today (rebounded a bit since) while WTI still sitting at only 13c.
November 6, 2025 at 8:51 PM
CRUDE TERM STRUCTURE
Crude curves weakening again, Brent prompt timespreads got as low as 20c earlier today (rebounded a bit since) while WTI still sitting at only 13c.
Crude curves weakening again, Brent prompt timespreads got as low as 20c earlier today (rebounded a bit since) while WTI still sitting at only 13c.
🇨🇦🛢️🚢 Canadian seaborne crude oil exports.
Three ways to go.
Three ways to go.
November 5, 2025 at 5:08 PM
🇨🇦🛢️🚢 Canadian seaborne crude oil exports.
Three ways to go.
Three ways to go.
Carney getting closer to that majority.
November 5, 2025 at 4:18 PM
Carney getting closer to that majority.
Are budget day ribs a thing?
Because they are now.
Because they are now.
November 5, 2025 at 12:19 AM
Are budget day ribs a thing?
Because they are now.
Because they are now.
Trump thought this is how Iraq should have worked and now maybe he’ll try his way.
New York Times:
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/u...
New York Times:
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/u...
November 4, 2025 at 11:13 PM
Trump thought this is how Iraq should have worked and now maybe he’ll try his way.
New York Times:
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/u...
New York Times:
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/u...
In the new Canadian federal budget, we see a ~10% downgraded oil price outlook through end-decade compared to the last budget.
And a pretty darn narrow spread for oil prices between upside and downside scenarios.
And a pretty darn narrow spread for oil prices between upside and downside scenarios.
November 4, 2025 at 9:55 PM
In the new Canadian federal budget, we see a ~10% downgraded oil price outlook through end-decade compared to the last budget.
And a pretty darn narrow spread for oil prices between upside and downside scenarios.
And a pretty darn narrow spread for oil prices between upside and downside scenarios.
🇨🇦 OIL AND GAS EMISSIONS CAP
I... have no idea what this means.
I... have no idea what this means.
November 4, 2025 at 9:24 PM
🇨🇦 OIL AND GAS EMISSIONS CAP
I... have no idea what this means.
I... have no idea what this means.
so many people love to confidently declare what commodity is or isn't needed in the context of export infrastructure expansion, based mostly off prior-confirming vibes and headlines
can't wait until they discover price signals
can't wait until they discover price signals
November 3, 2025 at 3:53 PM
so many people love to confidently declare what commodity is or isn't needed in the context of export infrastructure expansion, based mostly off prior-confirming vibes and headlines
can't wait until they discover price signals
can't wait until they discover price signals
when I'm working on geospatial visualizations and I try to convince myself I like non-Mercator projections
November 3, 2025 at 3:41 PM
when I'm working on geospatial visualizations and I try to convince myself I like non-Mercator projections
Churchill is the very, very back of the line in terms of viability. Got a name drop in the piece but left it at that.
Imho value of Churchill would be more about northern/artic Canadian presence projection than energy security (no need to supply up there and demand better diversified headed west)
Imho value of Churchill would be more about northern/artic Canadian presence projection than energy security (no need to supply up there and demand better diversified headed west)
November 3, 2025 at 3:20 PM
Churchill is the very, very back of the line in terms of viability. Got a name drop in the piece but left it at that.
Imho value of Churchill would be more about northern/artic Canadian presence projection than energy security (no need to supply up there and demand better diversified headed west)
Imho value of Churchill would be more about northern/artic Canadian presence projection than energy security (no need to supply up there and demand better diversified headed west)