Dante Scala
@graniteprof.bsky.social
Political science professor, University of New Hampshire. Opinions my own.
Pinned
Dante Scala
@graniteprof.bsky.social
· Mar 19
Speaking Out for Democracy and US Higher Education
Speaking Out for Democracy and US Higher Education To add your name to this statement, go to https://bit.ly/DemocracyAndHigherEdSign We publicly affirm our commitment to the enterprise of higher educ...
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Reposted by Dante Scala
2013: GOP shut down govt to DEFUND ACA
2025: Democrats shut down govt to FUND ACA
2013: GOP surrender after 17 days
2025: Democrats surrender after 37 days
2014: GOP +9(!!) in Sen, +13 in Hou
2026: ???
To change policy this was doomed from the start, and will be judged on electoral impact.
2025: Democrats shut down govt to FUND ACA
2013: GOP surrender after 17 days
2025: Democrats surrender after 37 days
2014: GOP +9(!!) in Sen, +13 in Hou
2026: ???
To change policy this was doomed from the start, and will be judged on electoral impact.
November 10, 2025 at 6:46 PM
2013: GOP shut down govt to DEFUND ACA
2025: Democrats shut down govt to FUND ACA
2013: GOP surrender after 17 days
2025: Democrats surrender after 37 days
2014: GOP +9(!!) in Sen, +13 in Hou
2026: ???
To change policy this was doomed from the start, and will be judged on electoral impact.
2025: Democrats shut down govt to FUND ACA
2013: GOP surrender after 17 days
2025: Democrats surrender after 37 days
2014: GOP +9(!!) in Sen, +13 in Hou
2026: ???
To change policy this was doomed from the start, and will be judged on electoral impact.
Reposted by Dante Scala
For those interested, last night I wrote about what's in the CR deal for Congress. If you want a slightly more coherent take...
firstbranchforecast.substack.com/p/whats-in-t...
firstbranchforecast.substack.com/p/whats-in-t...
What's in the CR Deal for Congress?
With a vote as early as tonight, we quickly ran the numbers
firstbranchforecast.substack.com
November 10, 2025 at 2:29 PM
For those interested, last night I wrote about what's in the CR deal for Congress. If you want a slightly more coherent take...
firstbranchforecast.substack.com/p/whats-in-t...
firstbranchforecast.substack.com/p/whats-in-t...
Reposted by Dante Scala
No party that ever started a shutdown won it. It's a little shocking how many people genuinely believed Dems could win policy concessions.
Democrats caved because their phones were likely ringing off the hooks from people without paychecks, food assistance, the ability to travel safely, etc.
Democrats caved because their phones were likely ringing off the hooks from people without paychecks, food assistance, the ability to travel safely, etc.
MSNBC reported Schumer's office felt that the longer that shutdown went on, the more likely it was that people would start to blame the Dems.
My kingdom for Democrats that don't govern out of fear. I've said it before and I'll say it again: The American people are far braver than their reps.
My kingdom for Democrats that don't govern out of fear. I've said it before and I'll say it again: The American people are far braver than their reps.
November 10, 2025 at 1:28 PM
No party that ever started a shutdown won it. It's a little shocking how many people genuinely believed Dems could win policy concessions.
Democrats caved because their phones were likely ringing off the hooks from people without paychecks, food assistance, the ability to travel safely, etc.
Democrats caved because their phones were likely ringing off the hooks from people without paychecks, food assistance, the ability to travel safely, etc.
Reposted by Dante Scala
Easily the most interesting (and optimistic) thing I've read in a while climatedrift.substack.com/p/why-solarp...
November 10, 2025 at 1:55 PM
Easily the most interesting (and optimistic) thing I've read in a while climatedrift.substack.com/p/why-solarp...
Reposted by Dante Scala
Assume all the yes and no votes from Dem senators are strategic and not sincere votes. The party caucus made a decision. No way to know how many were in favor. Then the caucus decided who would vote yes and no based on what would protect each of them politically the most. That’s how this works.
November 10, 2025 at 2:12 AM
Assume all the yes and no votes from Dem senators are strategic and not sincere votes. The party caucus made a decision. No way to know how many were in favor. Then the caucus decided who would vote yes and no based on what would protect each of them politically the most. That’s how this works.
Reposted by Dante Scala
So Iowa likely won't be a sanctioned part of the Democrats' 2028 presidential primary calendar, but candidates keep heading out to the Hawkeye state anyway. The reasons why are pretty clear. 1/
How long will Democratic presidential contenders keep going to Iowa?
Possible 2028 Democrats keep trekking to the Hawkeye state but those visits aren't guaranteed to last. Here's why.
www.fhqplus.com
November 10, 2025 at 2:02 PM
So Iowa likely won't be a sanctioned part of the Democrats' 2028 presidential primary calendar, but candidates keep heading out to the Hawkeye state anyway. The reasons why are pretty clear. 1/
Reposted by Dante Scala
How can these two seemingly contradictory things about US politics both be true?
1. Partisanship is calcified.
2. Election outcomes are thermostatic.
TURNOUT. It’s not the same people who vote every time. Mobilizing, organizing, educating, party infrastructure—it all matters.
1. Partisanship is calcified.
2. Election outcomes are thermostatic.
TURNOUT. It’s not the same people who vote every time. Mobilizing, organizing, educating, party infrastructure—it all matters.
November 6, 2025 at 12:15 PM
How can these two seemingly contradictory things about US politics both be true?
1. Partisanship is calcified.
2. Election outcomes are thermostatic.
TURNOUT. It’s not the same people who vote every time. Mobilizing, organizing, educating, party infrastructure—it all matters.
1. Partisanship is calcified.
2. Election outcomes are thermostatic.
TURNOUT. It’s not the same people who vote every time. Mobilizing, organizing, educating, party infrastructure—it all matters.
Reposted by Dante Scala
Since 2015, Trump has never been able to turn out his low-political engagement voters (who are very hard to reach in polls) in elections when his name is not on the ballot. The pattern continues.
It looks like public polls had a small Republican bias in VA and a relatively large one in NJ this year.
November 5, 2025 at 3:34 AM
Since 2015, Trump has never been able to turn out his low-political engagement voters (who are very hard to reach in polls) in elections when his name is not on the ballot. The pattern continues.
Reposted by Dante Scala
Zohran's relentless disciplined campaign was truly impressive - he brought every message/issue back to the cost of living and built a model for what bringing attention to a positive affordability message can look like
Proud to have Blue Rose do ad testing for the Zohran IE!
x.com/alimortell/s...
Proud to have Blue Rose do ad testing for the Zohran IE!
x.com/alimortell/s...
Ali Mortell on X: ".@ZohranKMamdani ran a phenomenal, authentic campaign focused on affordability. Blue Rose Research is proud to have partnered with @MiddleSeatCo on ad testing and to support their work in helping build the momentum for a more affordable New York. LFG 🌹 https://t.co/0HLenkSSrv" / X
.@ZohranKMamdani ran a phenomenal, authentic campaign focused on affordability. Blue Rose Research is proud to have partnered with @MiddleSeatCo on ad testing and to support their work in helping build the momentum for a more affordable New York. LFG 🌹 https://t.co/0HLenkSSrv
x.com
November 5, 2025 at 3:13 PM
Zohran's relentless disciplined campaign was truly impressive - he brought every message/issue back to the cost of living and built a model for what bringing attention to a positive affordability message can look like
Proud to have Blue Rose do ad testing for the Zohran IE!
x.com/alimortell/s...
Proud to have Blue Rose do ad testing for the Zohran IE!
x.com/alimortell/s...
Reposted by Dante Scala
Elections (still) matter.
We need to keep it that way, with free and fair elections, in 2026.
SafeguardingDemocracyProject.org.
We need to keep it that way, with free and fair elections, in 2026.
SafeguardingDemocracyProject.org.
Safeguarding Democracy Project
The Safeguarding Democracy Project at UCLA Law promotes research, collaboration, and advocacy aimed at ensuring continued free and fair elections in the United States, conducted in accordance with dem...
SafeguardingDemocracyProject.org
November 5, 2025 at 3:35 AM
Elections (still) matter.
We need to keep it that way, with free and fair elections, in 2026.
SafeguardingDemocracyProject.org.
We need to keep it that way, with free and fair elections, in 2026.
SafeguardingDemocracyProject.org.
Reposted by Dante Scala
Democratic Rep. Jared Golden, facing a primary challenge from state Auditor Matt Dunlap, says he won't seek reelection in #ME02
Jared Golden: I won’t seek reelection. Here’s why.
"What I could accomplish in this increasingly unproductive Congress pales in comparison to what I could do in that time as a husband, a father and a son."
www.bangordailynews.com
November 5, 2025 at 8:20 PM
Reposted by Dante Scala
1. Trende should join us over here. It's actually quite nice here.
2. I think I'm ready to say that Dems getting to 51 is clearly up to drawing to an inside straight, and closing in on just plain drawing to a straight now.
3. Waiting on Alaska.
2. I think I'm ready to say that Dems getting to 51 is clearly up to drawing to an inside straight, and closing in on just plain drawing to a straight now.
3. Waiting on Alaska.
Senate being in play “at all” should send alarm bells ringing all over the place for Senate Rs.
November 5, 2025 at 8:24 PM
1. Trende should join us over here. It's actually quite nice here.
2. I think I'm ready to say that Dems getting to 51 is clearly up to drawing to an inside straight, and closing in on just plain drawing to a straight now.
3. Waiting on Alaska.
2. I think I'm ready to say that Dems getting to 51 is clearly up to drawing to an inside straight, and closing in on just plain drawing to a straight now.
3. Waiting on Alaska.
Reposted by Dante Scala
I made a spreadsheet for tracking which party overperforms in Virginia's House of Delegates elections tonight. docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
November 4, 2025 at 6:49 PM
I made a spreadsheet for tracking which party overperforms in Virginia's House of Delegates elections tonight. docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Reposted by Dante Scala
The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee met early last week and passed a resolution setting up the process that will guide how early 2028 presidential primary states are selected. Yes, that set a deadline for when state parties can apply for those calendar slots, but...
www.fhqplus.com/p/now-we-kno...
www.fhqplus.com/p/now-we-kno...
Now we know what they're looking for.
The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee met earlier this week and passed a resolution laying out what the party wants in the 4 or 5 early states for 2028.
www.fhqplus.com
November 3, 2025 at 2:00 PM
The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee met early last week and passed a resolution setting up the process that will guide how early 2028 presidential primary states are selected. Yes, that set a deadline for when state parties can apply for those calendar slots, but...
www.fhqplus.com/p/now-we-kno...
www.fhqplus.com/p/now-we-kno...
Reposted by Dante Scala
Much of the Graham Platner discourse has been about his ability to bring younger men and disaffected voters back into the Democratic fold. But that's all felt a little divorced from the reality of what it takes to beat Susan Collins. I explore how she keeps winning and what that means for ME-Sen.
Is Graham Platner Solving the Wrong Problem for Maine Democrats?
What Susan Collins' 2020 win says about beating her in 2026.
www.insideelections.com
November 3, 2025 at 7:52 PM
Much of the Graham Platner discourse has been about his ability to bring younger men and disaffected voters back into the Democratic fold. But that's all felt a little divorced from the reality of what it takes to beat Susan Collins. I explore how she keeps winning and what that means for ME-Sen.
Reposted by Dante Scala
As mysterious to the kids as rotary phones.
November 3, 2025 at 6:39 PM
As mysterious to the kids as rotary phones.
Reposted by Dante Scala
Love state legislative special elections in tossup districts? We've got two of them—both in the northernmost reaches of the United States!
And they're both on our Big Board (along with many others), natch: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
And they're both on our Big Board (along with many others), natch: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
November 3, 2025 at 5:49 PM
Love state legislative special elections in tossup districts? We've got two of them—both in the northernmost reaches of the United States!
And they're both on our Big Board (along with many others), natch: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
And they're both on our Big Board (along with many others), natch: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Reposted by Dante Scala
Max Eastman’s autobiography, Love and Revolution, has a truly harrowing discussion of the massive crackdown on dissent that accompanied the beginning of World War One. Read excerpts here, assembled by Charlie Sykes, and resolve never to let it happen again.
It Did Happen Here - by Charlie Sykes - To the Contrary charliesykes.substack.com/p/it-did-hap...
It Did Happen Here
A reminder of our fragile rights
charliesykes.substack.com
November 3, 2025 at 6:10 PM
Max Eastman’s autobiography, Love and Revolution, has a truly harrowing discussion of the massive crackdown on dissent that accompanied the beginning of World War One. Read excerpts here, assembled by Charlie Sykes, and resolve never to let it happen again.
Reposted by Dante Scala
Details here on how exit polling/poll of election voters! For the in-the-weeds details on methodology, see: ssrs.com/wp-content/u...
This year, for the first time since 2016, CNN, ABC, CBS, Fox News, NBC and the Associated Press are working together to produce exit polls, in collaboration with SSRS, a nonpartisan research company that also conducts CNN’s polling. https://cnn.it/48TVi0W
November 3, 2025 at 6:14 PM
Details here on how exit polling/poll of election voters! For the in-the-weeds details on methodology, see: ssrs.com/wp-content/u...
Reposted by Dante Scala
Updated info on NJ VBM and early voting. This keeps up, we’re looking at Dems having a 280K advantage heading into in-person voting on Election Day.
NJ early voting numbers keep rising. Now near 1.2M. Approaching 1/2M more than in last gov elect in 2021.
267K more Dems voting that GOP. @njspotlightnews.org www.njspotlightnews.org/2025/10/nj-e... Today is last day to vote early in person, VBMs can be postmarked or put in drop box up to 8 pm Tues
267K more Dems voting that GOP. @njspotlightnews.org www.njspotlightnews.org/2025/10/nj-e... Today is last day to vote early in person, VBMs can be postmarked or put in drop box up to 8 pm Tues
NJ election: Early voting updates | NJ Spotlight News
Updated counts of mail-in ballots and early in-person votes
www.njspotlightnews.org
November 2, 2025 at 6:28 PM
Updated info on NJ VBM and early voting. This keeps up, we’re looking at Dems having a 280K advantage heading into in-person voting on Election Day.
Reposted by Dante Scala
1. It's weird for the Speaker to be pro-filibuster. Party > Chamber.
2. This very much counts as Johnson standing up to Trump, for those who think he never does.
2. This very much counts as Johnson standing up to Trump, for those who think he never does.
Johnson: "If they had no filibuster, they would pack the SCOTUS. You'd go from 9 to 17 or however many liberals they could pack. You would make DC & Puerto Rico into states, which would give 4 additional Democrat senators & make us a permanent minority. You'd see massive restrictions of 2A rights"
November 3, 2025 at 5:49 PM
1. It's weird for the Speaker to be pro-filibuster. Party > Chamber.
2. This very much counts as Johnson standing up to Trump, for those who think he never does.
2. This very much counts as Johnson standing up to Trump, for those who think he never does.
Reposted by Dante Scala
I find most interesting in the CNN poll is that Democrats are more enthusiastic to vote in the 2026 midterms than Republicans, 67% to 46%. That big enthusiasm gap is reflected in the early voting numbers for tomorrow's election www.cnn.com/2025/11/03/p...
November 3, 2025 at 12:50 PM
I find most interesting in the CNN poll is that Democrats are more enthusiastic to vote in the 2026 midterms than Republicans, 67% to 46%. That big enthusiasm gap is reflected in the early voting numbers for tomorrow's election www.cnn.com/2025/11/03/p...
Reposted by Dante Scala
A governor’s race will test the durability of the gains Trump made in 2024, when the state’s majority-Hispanic townships all swung in his direction.
Via @shanegoldmacher.bsky.social and @christinezhang.bsky.social
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/30/u...
Via @shanegoldmacher.bsky.social and @christinezhang.bsky.social
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/30/u...
What New Jersey Could Reveal About the Rightward Shift of Hispanic Voters
www.nytimes.com
October 30, 2025 at 7:50 PM
A governor’s race will test the durability of the gains Trump made in 2024, when the state’s majority-Hispanic townships all swung in his direction.
Via @shanegoldmacher.bsky.social and @christinezhang.bsky.social
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/30/u...
Via @shanegoldmacher.bsky.social and @christinezhang.bsky.social
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/30/u...
Reposted by Dante Scala
I don't think people properly appreciate just how badly Trump/Johnson have had to screw this up to achieve these results.
👀 NEW: Americans blame Trump and GOP more than Democrats for shutdown, per new @washingtonpost.com poll.
Independents blame Trump and Republicans more than Democrats by a 2-to-1 margin, 46% to 23%.
More: www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
Independents blame Trump and Republicans more than Democrats by a 2-to-1 margin, 46% to 23%.
More: www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
October 30, 2025 at 7:53 PM
I don't think people properly appreciate just how badly Trump/Johnson have had to screw this up to achieve these results.