Josh Putnam
@www.fhqplus.com
Political scientist specializing in delegate selection rules, presidential campaigns and elections. Founder of FHQ Strategies, LLC.
blog: https://www.frontloadinghq.com
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blog: https://www.frontloadinghq.com
newsletter: https://www.fhqplus.com/
business: https://www.fhqstrategies.com/
Reposted by Josh Putnam
For paid subscribers: A look at how the incentives for Democratic candidate visits to Iowa are likely to change. That has not been fully explored yet. I don't know that I "fully explored" them, but I did take a typically nerdy turn into the 2028 rules as a guide. 2/2
www.fhqplus.com/p/how-long-w...
www.fhqplus.com/p/how-long-w...
How long will Democratic presidential contenders keep going to Iowa?
Possible 2028 Democrats keep trekking to the Hawkeye state but those visits aren't guaranteed to last. Here's why.
www.fhqplus.com
November 10, 2025 at 2:02 PM
For paid subscribers: A look at how the incentives for Democratic candidate visits to Iowa are likely to change. That has not been fully explored yet. I don't know that I "fully explored" them, but I did take a typically nerdy turn into the 2028 rules as a guide. 2/2
www.fhqplus.com/p/how-long-w...
www.fhqplus.com/p/how-long-w...
Reposted by Josh Putnam
So Iowa likely won't be a sanctioned part of the Democrats' 2028 presidential primary calendar, but candidates keep heading out to the Hawkeye state anyway. The reasons why are pretty clear. 1/
How long will Democratic presidential contenders keep going to Iowa?
Possible 2028 Democrats keep trekking to the Hawkeye state but those visits aren't guaranteed to last. Here's why.
www.fhqplus.com
November 10, 2025 at 2:02 PM
So Iowa likely won't be a sanctioned part of the Democrats' 2028 presidential primary calendar, but candidates keep heading out to the Hawkeye state anyway. The reasons why are pretty clear. 1/
Reposted by Josh Putnam
My entirely too early assessment of the Senate deal. Still a lot of unknowns but like this shutdown, this deal was a little surprising. open.substack.com/pub/joshhude...
An Entirely too-early Assessment of the Senate Shutdown Deal/Vote
Democrats may have over-performed on policy and underperformed on politics.
open.substack.com
November 10, 2025 at 4:46 PM
My entirely too early assessment of the Senate deal. Still a lot of unknowns but like this shutdown, this deal was a little surprising. open.substack.com/pub/joshhude...
So Iowa likely won't be a sanctioned part of the Democrats' 2028 presidential primary calendar, but candidates keep heading out to the Hawkeye state anyway. The reasons why are pretty clear. 1/
How long will Democratic presidential contenders keep going to Iowa?
Possible 2028 Democrats keep trekking to the Hawkeye state but those visits aren't guaranteed to last. Here's why.
www.fhqplus.com
November 10, 2025 at 2:02 PM
So Iowa likely won't be a sanctioned part of the Democrats' 2028 presidential primary calendar, but candidates keep heading out to the Hawkeye state anyway. The reasons why are pretty clear. 1/
Reposted by Josh Putnam
When Nancy Pelosi stepped down as Speaker I was asked to evaluate her time as leader, which was really exciting until the scope and scale of that task began to settle in. Put simply, she is among the greatest speakers in House history. www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi...
Speaker Nancy Pelosi: A Master of the House
This article analyzes the record of Nancy Pelosi’s four terms as Speaker of the House of Representatives. It evaluates her performance through three main lenses: as a party leader, institutional leade...
www.degruyterbrill.com
November 6, 2025 at 4:40 PM
When Nancy Pelosi stepped down as Speaker I was asked to evaluate her time as leader, which was really exciting until the scope and scale of that task began to settle in. Put simply, she is among the greatest speakers in House history. www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi...
Reposted by Josh Putnam
Five Lessons from the 2025 Election Results:
honestgraft.substack.com/p/five-lesso...
honestgraft.substack.com/p/five-lesso...
Five Lessons from the 2025 Election Results
“Unless the president is unusually popular, the party holding the White House will suffer significant losses in off-year elections” is a very well-established pattern, so nothing about the Democratic ...
honestgraft.substack.com
November 5, 2025 at 6:51 PM
Five Lessons from the 2025 Election Results:
honestgraft.substack.com/p/five-lesso...
honestgraft.substack.com/p/five-lesso...
Reposted by Josh Putnam
I have a piece up today in @democracyproject.bsky.social's "100 Ideas" series about populism on the right and left, and it seems particularly relevant now. I hope you'll check it out.
democracyproject.org/posts/the-ri...
democracyproject.org/posts/the-ri...
November 5, 2025 at 2:11 PM
I have a piece up today in @democracyproject.bsky.social's "100 Ideas" series about populism on the right and left, and it seems particularly relevant now. I hope you'll check it out.
democracyproject.org/posts/the-ri...
democracyproject.org/posts/the-ri...
Reposted by Josh Putnam
Since 2015, Trump has never been able to turn out his low-political engagement voters (who are very hard to reach in polls) in elections when his name is not on the ballot. The pattern continues.
It looks like public polls had a small Republican bias in VA and a relatively large one in NJ this year.
November 5, 2025 at 3:34 AM
Since 2015, Trump has never been able to turn out his low-political engagement voters (who are very hard to reach in polls) in elections when his name is not on the ballot. The pattern continues.
Reposted by Josh Putnam
But RBC-adopted resolution did a whole lot more. I tackle all of it here (including the language of both that resolution and the official Request for Proposals).
And for paid subscribers, I dug deeper into some of the subtext of the RBC meeting and what it portends.
www.fhqplus.com/p/now-we-kno...
And for paid subscribers, I dug deeper into some of the subtext of the RBC meeting and what it portends.
www.fhqplus.com/p/now-we-kno...
Now we know what they're looking for.
The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee met earlier this week and passed a resolution laying out what the party wants in the 4 or 5 early states for 2028.
www.fhqplus.com
November 3, 2025 at 2:00 PM
But RBC-adopted resolution did a whole lot more. I tackle all of it here (including the language of both that resolution and the official Request for Proposals).
And for paid subscribers, I dug deeper into some of the subtext of the RBC meeting and what it portends.
www.fhqplus.com/p/now-we-kno...
And for paid subscribers, I dug deeper into some of the subtext of the RBC meeting and what it portends.
www.fhqplus.com/p/now-we-kno...
Reposted by Josh Putnam
The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee met early last week and passed a resolution setting up the process that will guide how early 2028 presidential primary states are selected. Yes, that set a deadline for when state parties can apply for those calendar slots, but...
www.fhqplus.com/p/now-we-kno...
www.fhqplus.com/p/now-we-kno...
Now we know what they're looking for.
The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee met earlier this week and passed a resolution laying out what the party wants in the 4 or 5 early states for 2028.
www.fhqplus.com
November 3, 2025 at 2:00 PM
The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee met early last week and passed a resolution setting up the process that will guide how early 2028 presidential primary states are selected. Yes, that set a deadline for when state parties can apply for those calendar slots, but...
www.fhqplus.com/p/now-we-kno...
www.fhqplus.com/p/now-we-kno...
The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee met early last week and passed a resolution setting up the process that will guide how early 2028 presidential primary states are selected. Yes, that set a deadline for when state parties can apply for those calendar slots, but...
www.fhqplus.com/p/now-we-kno...
www.fhqplus.com/p/now-we-kno...
Now we know what they're looking for.
The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee met earlier this week and passed a resolution laying out what the party wants in the 4 or 5 early states for 2028.
www.fhqplus.com
November 3, 2025 at 2:00 PM
The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee met early last week and passed a resolution setting up the process that will guide how early 2028 presidential primary states are selected. Yes, that set a deadline for when state parties can apply for those calendar slots, but...
www.fhqplus.com/p/now-we-kno...
www.fhqplus.com/p/now-we-kno...
Reposted by Josh Putnam
I added the first state with updated data -- Connecticut -- to my election even early vote analysis. I'll post updates to this post throughout the data as more states' data becomes available open.substack.com/pub/michaelm...
2025 Early Vote Pre-Election Update
I'll add to this post throughout the day as data become available
open.substack.com
November 3, 2025 at 1:41 PM
I added the first state with updated data -- Connecticut -- to my election even early vote analysis. I'll post updates to this post throughout the data as more states' data becomes available open.substack.com/pub/michaelm...
Nathan took the assignment seriously. Good thread here.
I'll thread a few good works, starting with Pew relatively recently:
www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...
www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...
What Americans know about their government
Three-quarters of Americans are familiar with the length of a Supreme Court appointment.
www.pewresearch.org
October 29, 2025 at 6:24 PM
Nathan took the assignment seriously. Good thread here.
Reposted by Josh Putnam
Read a free sample! It's enough for a citation for sure :)
In Backlash Presidents, @juliaazari.bsky.social reveals how most presidents avoid upsetting the racial status quo—and why those who do pave the way for lawless, norm-violating successors.
Read a free sample of this incisive book: press.princeton.edu/books/hardco...
#PoliSci #PoliticalScience
Read a free sample of this incisive book: press.princeton.edu/books/hardco...
#PoliSci #PoliticalScience
October 23, 2025 at 8:40 PM
Read a free sample! It's enough for a citation for sure :)
Yep.
Moving MI & NV hinges on whether Dems have unified control. [Neither does now.]
GA depends on who is elected SoS (& a GOP SoS could play ball).
SC can be shifted anywhere. [Unlike other southern states.]
And NH? Well, they are likely going to go first with or without sanction from the party.
Moving MI & NV hinges on whether Dems have unified control. [Neither does now.]
GA depends on who is elected SoS (& a GOP SoS could play ball).
SC can be shifted anywhere. [Unlike other southern states.]
And NH? Well, they are likely going to go first with or without sanction from the party.
My own supposition here is that Michigan, South Carolina, Nevada and New Hampshire have the inside track on getting early slots with perhaps Georgia being in the mix as well. The order will be very hotly contested, though. And lots of issues about state laws and what Republicans are doing.
The criteria in the draft resolution cited here are consistent with what Chair @kenmartin.bsky.social laid out in an early August interview.
October 17, 2025 at 8:32 PM
Yep.
Moving MI & NV hinges on whether Dems have unified control. [Neither does now.]
GA depends on who is elected SoS (& a GOP SoS could play ball).
SC can be shifted anywhere. [Unlike other southern states.]
And NH? Well, they are likely going to go first with or without sanction from the party.
Moving MI & NV hinges on whether Dems have unified control. [Neither does now.]
GA depends on who is elected SoS (& a GOP SoS could play ball).
SC can be shifted anywhere. [Unlike other southern states.]
And NH? Well, they are likely going to go first with or without sanction from the party.
The criteria in the draft resolution cited here are consistent with what Chair @kenmartin.bsky.social laid out in an early August interview.
EXCLUSIVE: The DNC is set to start the process for deciding which states will vote earliest in 2028 presidential primaries.
DNC set to start process for deciding which states will vote earliest in 2028 presidential primaries
A Democratic National Committee panel has drafted proposed standards to help the party decide which states will be the earliest to vote in the 2028 presidential primaries.
cbsn.ws
October 17, 2025 at 7:55 PM
The criteria in the draft resolution cited here are consistent with what Chair @kenmartin.bsky.social laid out in an early August interview.
It looks like the RNC has named the members of the Presidential Nominating Process Committee for the 2028 cycle. That standing committee will examine and recommend changes to the nomination rules over the next (up to) nine months.
www.frontloadinghq.com/2025/10/rnc-...
www.frontloadinghq.com/2025/10/rnc-...
RNC Chair names members of the 2028 Presidential Nominating Process Committee
September 30 was not just the end of the fiscal year for the federal government. Under the rules of the Republican National Committee (RNC),...
www.frontloadinghq.com
October 1, 2025 at 6:50 PM
It looks like the RNC has named the members of the Presidential Nominating Process Committee for the 2028 cycle. That standing committee will examine and recommend changes to the nomination rules over the next (up to) nine months.
www.frontloadinghq.com/2025/10/rnc-...
www.frontloadinghq.com/2025/10/rnc-...
Reposted by Josh Putnam
there's a lot of attention right now on narratives about election victories/losses so this is your reminder that @smotus.bsky.social and I both have written books on this subject 1/
September 29, 2025 at 3:19 PM
there's a lot of attention right now on narratives about election victories/losses so this is your reminder that @smotus.bsky.social and I both have written books on this subject 1/
Reposted by Josh Putnam
Feeling overwhelmed? Despair? Unending urgency?
My friends feeling this… a few things...🧵
1/6
My friends feeling this… a few things...🧵
1/6
September 26, 2025 at 11:51 AM
Feeling overwhelmed? Despair? Unending urgency?
My friends feeling this… a few things...🧵
1/6
My friends feeling this… a few things...🧵
1/6
Reposted by Josh Putnam
Happy (official) publication day to one of my favorite projects ever!
tldr: Congressional votes on early federal infrastructure policy was influenced by partisan, distributive, and racial considerations
tldr: Congressional votes on early federal infrastructure policy was influenced by partisan, distributive, and racial considerations
September 19, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Happy (official) publication day to one of my favorite projects ever!
tldr: Congressional votes on early federal infrastructure policy was influenced by partisan, distributive, and racial considerations
tldr: Congressional votes on early federal infrastructure policy was influenced by partisan, distributive, and racial considerations
Reposted by Josh Putnam
Here's me today on shutdown politics goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/shutdown-p...
And here's @mattglassman312.bsky.social mattglassman.substack.com/p/a-strategi...
We agree on almost everything, including that a shutdown is mostly a "do something" idea, except our final position...
And here's @mattglassman312.bsky.social mattglassman.substack.com/p/a-strategi...
We agree on almost everything, including that a shutdown is mostly a "do something" idea, except our final position...
September 9, 2025 at 4:06 PM
Here's me today on shutdown politics goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/shutdown-p...
And here's @mattglassman312.bsky.social mattglassman.substack.com/p/a-strategi...
We agree on almost everything, including that a shutdown is mostly a "do something" idea, except our final position...
And here's @mattglassman312.bsky.social mattglassman.substack.com/p/a-strategi...
We agree on almost everything, including that a shutdown is mostly a "do something" idea, except our final position...
Reposted by Josh Putnam
Today at GP/BP: Yeah 2024 for the Dems was mostly just a normal losing year, not a reason for panic. Still looks like a reasonably healthy party to me. And fighting over the next nomination can be part of how healthy parties work. goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/democrats-...
Democrats: Not Dead
2024 was a normal loss for a reasonably healthy party. That's all.
goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com
August 21, 2025 at 9:13 PM
Today at GP/BP: Yeah 2024 for the Dems was mostly just a normal losing year, not a reason for panic. Still looks like a reasonably healthy party to me. And fighting over the next nomination can be part of how healthy parties work. goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/democrats-...
Free preview at FHQ+...
DNC Chair Martin lays out early state checklist for 2028
www.fhqplus.com/p/dnc-chair-...
DNC Chair Martin lays out early state checklist for 2028
www.fhqplus.com/p/dnc-chair-...
DNC Chair Martin lays out early state checklist for 2028
The boxes prospective early calendar states will have to check are potentially a little different than they were for 2024
www.fhqplus.com
August 8, 2025 at 3:02 PM
Free preview at FHQ+...
DNC Chair Martin lays out early state checklist for 2028
www.fhqplus.com/p/dnc-chair-...
DNC Chair Martin lays out early state checklist for 2028
www.fhqplus.com/p/dnc-chair-...
Reposted by Josh Putnam
Got a book you all are going to love, just a few weeks now until it's available press.princeton.edu/books/hardco...
August 6, 2025 at 1:31 PM
Got a book you all are going to love, just a few weeks now until it's available press.princeton.edu/books/hardco...
New at FHQ...
"DNC chair says Democrats will start process of setting 2028 primary calendar this month"
www.frontloadinghq.com/2025/08/dnc-...
"DNC chair says Democrats will start process of setting 2028 primary calendar this month"
www.frontloadinghq.com/2025/08/dnc-...
"DNC chair says Democrats will start process of setting 2028 primary calendar this month"
Sarah Fortinsky at the The Hill summarizes DNC Chair Ken Martin's comments on the 2028 Democratic primary calendar : "Democratic National Co...
www.frontloadinghq.com
August 5, 2025 at 2:30 PM
New at FHQ...
"DNC chair says Democrats will start process of setting 2028 primary calendar this month"
www.frontloadinghq.com/2025/08/dnc-...
"DNC chair says Democrats will start process of setting 2028 primary calendar this month"
www.frontloadinghq.com/2025/08/dnc-...