Dan Cassino
@dancassino.bsky.social
Political scientist at FDU, Executive Director of the FDU Poll, studying masculinities and research methods.
Not least because any qualified GOP recruit is going to be hiding in a corner, hoping voters forget they exist, while Dems will be fighting off passionate recruits with a pointy stick.
2027 is going to be a bloodbath for the New Jersey GOP that makes 2025 look solid, is my prediction right now
November 9, 2025 at 9:47 PM
Not least because any qualified GOP recruit is going to be hiding in a corner, hoping voters forget they exist, while Dems will be fighting off passionate recruits with a pointy stick.
Reposted by Dan Cassino
At 40%, T still has solid support in Congress and the party. He went below 40 in term 1 and it didn't harm him much or get him convicted in the Senate in Jan 2021. If there's a tipping point for loud R opposition, it's far below here. 32% means losing 1 in 5 current approvers. That's a lot.
Taken together, the results reinforce what polls have shown for months: that Trump's approval is crashing with the voters who swung behind him in 2024. Young, ethnically diverse voters whose top issues are the economy and cost of living www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
November 9, 2025 at 9:40 PM
At 40%, T still has solid support in Congress and the party. He went below 40 in term 1 and it didn't harm him much or get him convicted in the Senate in Jan 2021. If there's a tipping point for loud R opposition, it's far below here. 32% means losing 1 in 5 current approvers. That's a lot.
Reposted by Dan Cassino
Prosecutor: You are accused of battery and assault
Batman: do you mean batbattery
Prosecutor: please take this seriously Batman
Batman: do you mean batbattery
Prosecutor: please take this seriously Batman
November 8, 2025 at 7:54 PM
Prosecutor: You are accused of battery and assault
Batman: do you mean batbattery
Prosecutor: please take this seriously Batman
Batman: do you mean batbattery
Prosecutor: please take this seriously Batman
Sociological research on emotion labor was supposed to be a warning, not a how-to.
"Store employees are now required to smile if they are within 10 feet of a shopper.
They also must make eye contact with and wave to or greet the customer.
If they’re within four feet, the employee should ask how the customer’s day is going or if they need help."
🙄 Won't stop the boycott, y'all.
They also must make eye contact with and wave to or greet the customer.
If they’re within four feet, the employee should ask how the customer’s day is going or if they need help."
🙄 Won't stop the boycott, y'all.
Target is now requiring its employees to smile more
As the holiday season fast approaches, Target is urging its employees to add a little more “jolly” to their work routine.
www.wilx.com
November 8, 2025 at 5:01 PM
Sociological research on emotion labor was supposed to be a warning, not a how-to.
Reposted by Dan Cassino
Passaic County precinct analysis shows strong correlation between % Latino and swing
Some Latino Trump voters switched to Democrats, but swing also due to compositional change
Latino communities saw more churn in electorate — it looks like many Trump voters stayed home, and new voters broke D
2/3
Some Latino Trump voters switched to Democrats, but swing also due to compositional change
Latino communities saw more churn in electorate — it looks like many Trump voters stayed home, and new voters broke D
2/3
November 8, 2025 at 12:55 AM
Passaic County precinct analysis shows strong correlation between % Latino and swing
Some Latino Trump voters switched to Democrats, but swing also due to compositional change
Latino communities saw more churn in electorate — it looks like many Trump voters stayed home, and new voters broke D
2/3
Some Latino Trump voters switched to Democrats, but swing also due to compositional change
Latino communities saw more churn in electorate — it looks like many Trump voters stayed home, and new voters broke D
2/3
Reposted by Dan Cassino
A year ago today, AtlasIntel said they would deposit at the Roper Center the raw data from their final polls. It's still not there.
Something tells me they will not be depositing that data file, neither the ones from this week's polls...
Something tells me they will not be depositing that data file, neither the ones from this week's polls...
November 7, 2025 at 8:47 PM
A year ago today, AtlasIntel said they would deposit at the Roper Center the raw data from their final polls. It's still not there.
Something tells me they will not be depositing that data file, neither the ones from this week's polls...
Something tells me they will not be depositing that data file, neither the ones from this week's polls...
There’s a deep question here: the extent to which we weight the reasons voters give for their attitudes. My sense- based on the cognitive political psychology literature- is that we probably should be skeptical of the explanations people give about why they feel as they do.
I guess I don't really understand the tweet. We aren't *guessing* that people are anxious about the economy, they are telling us that in polls. Voters say inflation is bad now & angry at incumbents, and they didn't say that in 2017-2022. Other things can act on presidential unpopularity too.
Trump becomes unpopular in 2017: ????
Trump stays unpopular in 2018-2020: ????
Biden becomes unpopular in 2021: ????
Biden stays unpopular in 2022-23: CLEARLY INFLATION
Biden stays unpopular in 2024: HANGOVER FROM INFLATION??
Trumps is unpopular in 2025: PROBABLY STILL INFLATION??
empiricism
Trump stays unpopular in 2018-2020: ????
Biden becomes unpopular in 2021: ????
Biden stays unpopular in 2022-23: CLEARLY INFLATION
Biden stays unpopular in 2024: HANGOVER FROM INFLATION??
Trumps is unpopular in 2025: PROBABLY STILL INFLATION??
empiricism
November 7, 2025 at 1:26 PM
There’s a deep question here: the extent to which we weight the reasons voters give for their attitudes. My sense- based on the cognitive political psychology literature- is that we probably should be skeptical of the explanations people give about why they feel as they do.
Reposted by Dan Cassino
I guess they can’t Bánh Mi from taking a swing at a cop?
November 6, 2025 at 9:23 PM
I guess they can’t Bánh Mi from taking a swing at a cop?
Given Sherrill’s lead in VBM and Early vote, Ciattarelli would have had to win about 56% of the Election Day vote to win.
Ocean only red county w/ similar trend, but not enough to overcome urban blue places
Given D success w/ advance voters, Ciattarelli's only path was to win yesterday's voters, but Sherrill won them too, expanding lead she banked early
More w/ @simko.bsky.social
www.cbsnews.com/news/mikie-s...
2/2
Given D success w/ advance voters, Ciattarelli's only path was to win yesterday's voters, but Sherrill won them too, expanding lead she banked early
More w/ @simko.bsky.social
www.cbsnews.com/news/mikie-s...
2/2
November 6, 2025 at 1:30 AM
Given Sherrill’s lead in VBM and Early vote, Ciattarelli would have had to win about 56% of the Election Day vote to win.
Reposted by Dan Cassino
NJ's bluest counties saw biggest turnout increases, propelling landslide
Three densest counties saw largest jumps from '21:
Hudson (Jersey City), Essex (Newark), Union
>30% increase in total vote
>30-pt Democratic margin
High-profile local races helped, e.g., Jersey City mayoral w/ former gov
1/2
Three densest counties saw largest jumps from '21:
Hudson (Jersey City), Essex (Newark), Union
>30% increase in total vote
>30-pt Democratic margin
High-profile local races helped, e.g., Jersey City mayoral w/ former gov
1/2
November 6, 2025 at 1:06 AM
NJ's bluest counties saw biggest turnout increases, propelling landslide
Three densest counties saw largest jumps from '21:
Hudson (Jersey City), Essex (Newark), Union
>30% increase in total vote
>30-pt Democratic margin
High-profile local races helped, e.g., Jersey City mayoral w/ former gov
1/2
Three densest counties saw largest jumps from '21:
Hudson (Jersey City), Essex (Newark), Union
>30% increase in total vote
>30-pt Democratic margin
High-profile local races helped, e.g., Jersey City mayoral w/ former gov
1/2
Reposted by Dan Cassino
Could this be the greatest moment in television advertising history?
November 5, 2025 at 11:42 PM
Could this be the greatest moment in television advertising history?
Boy, everyone in academia is looking for a new gig.
November 5, 2025 at 6:50 PM
Boy, everyone in academia is looking for a new gig.
I love you all, but please stop comparing vote percentage numbers for counties in NJ between 24 and 25. The difference wasn’t how people voted, it was who voted (or stayed home in 24), and you’re misleading yourself with these analyses.
November 5, 2025 at 6:46 PM
I love you all, but please stop comparing vote percentage numbers for counties in NJ between 24 and 25. The difference wasn’t how people voted, it was who voted (or stayed home in 24), and you’re misleading yourself with these analyses.
The biggest effect of last night’s wins has yet to be seen: it’s on candidate recruitment for the midterms, and is going to make it much more difficult for Republicans to maintain control of the House.
November 5, 2025 at 12:11 PM
The biggest effect of last night’s wins has yet to be seen: it’s on candidate recruitment for the midterms, and is going to make it much more difficult for Republicans to maintain control of the House.
Reposted by Dan Cassino
I cannot stop laughing. “The Garden Blob”
This is the worst drawing of New Jersey that I've ever seen and a guy in my college house had a tattoo of it on his ass
🚨DEMOCRATIC TRIFECTA IN NEW JERSEY 🚨
We’re thrilled to celebrate New Jersey maintaining its Democratic trifecta, ensuring that Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill can get to work delivering a strong, progressive agenda for the people of New Jersey on day one.
We’re thrilled to celebrate New Jersey maintaining its Democratic trifecta, ensuring that Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill can get to work delivering a strong, progressive agenda for the people of New Jersey on day one.
November 5, 2025 at 4:07 AM
I cannot stop laughing. “The Garden Blob”
Weird. There were a lot of folks explaining how Atlas' methodology was clearly superior to traditional polling that seem to have gotten real quiet all of a sudden.
One point race my foot.
One point race my foot.
November 5, 2025 at 3:18 AM
Weird. There were a lot of folks explaining how Atlas' methodology was clearly superior to traditional polling that seem to have gotten real quiet all of a sudden.
One point race my foot.
One point race my foot.
CNN and AP now called it. Early, but not wrong.
We're already seeing the NJ Gov race called for Sherrill. Little early, I think, but I don't think they're wrong.
Strong turnout everywhere Sherrill needed it, with Ciattarelli only narrowly winning the early vote in places where he needed a blowout. I'm expecting a 7-8 point margin.
Strong turnout everywhere Sherrill needed it, with Ciattarelli only narrowly winning the early vote in places where he needed a blowout. I'm expecting a 7-8 point margin.
November 5, 2025 at 2:26 AM
CNN and AP now called it. Early, but not wrong.
Some crazy results in South Jersey tonight. 70% of the vote being reported in Ocean County, and Ciattarelli is up by 30 percent. Which seems good.
Except that he needed to win Ocean County by *50* points.
Except that he needed to win Ocean County by *50* points.
November 5, 2025 at 2:03 AM
Some crazy results in South Jersey tonight. 70% of the vote being reported in Ocean County, and Ciattarelli is up by 30 percent. Which seems good.
Except that he needed to win Ocean County by *50* points.
Except that he needed to win Ocean County by *50* points.
Reposted by Dan Cassino
We're already seeing the NJ Gov race called for Sherrill. Little early, I think, but I don't think they're wrong.
Strong turnout everywhere Sherrill needed it, with Ciattarelli only narrowly winning the early vote in places where he needed a blowout. I'm expecting a 7-8 point margin.
Strong turnout everywhere Sherrill needed it, with Ciattarelli only narrowly winning the early vote in places where he needed a blowout. I'm expecting a 7-8 point margin.
November 5, 2025 at 1:44 AM
We're already seeing the NJ Gov race called for Sherrill. Little early, I think, but I don't think they're wrong.
Strong turnout everywhere Sherrill needed it, with Ciattarelli only narrowly winning the early vote in places where he needed a blowout. I'm expecting a 7-8 point margin.
Strong turnout everywhere Sherrill needed it, with Ciattarelli only narrowly winning the early vote in places where he needed a blowout. I'm expecting a 7-8 point margin.
New Jersey polls are closed.
mario is wearing a red hat and white gloves and says `` here we goooo ! ''
ALT: mario is wearing a red hat and white gloves and says `` here we goooo ! ''
media.tenor.com
November 5, 2025 at 1:02 AM
New Jersey polls are closed.
On my way to PIX11’s studios on 42nd street for live coverage of NY and NJ elections starting at 8.
I’d love being on air with them even if we weren’t taping in the Daily Planet from the Christopher Reeve Superman movies.
I’d love being on air with them even if we weren’t taping in the Daily Planet from the Christopher Reeve Superman movies.
The early data from Election Day voting in NJ is coming in, but I’m not going to post about it. Because it shouldn’t matter.
If you haven’t cast your ballot yet, do it: your vote matters, no matter the outcome. We’ll all find out who the winner is together, tonight.
If you haven’t cast your ballot yet, do it: your vote matters, no matter the outcome. We’ll all find out who the winner is together, tonight.
November 4, 2025 at 11:00 PM
On my way to PIX11’s studios on 42nd street for live coverage of NY and NJ elections starting at 8.
I’d love being on air with them even if we weren’t taping in the Daily Planet from the Christopher Reeve Superman movies.
I’d love being on air with them even if we weren’t taping in the Daily Planet from the Christopher Reeve Superman movies.
Reposted by Dan Cassino
Gambling odds are neither news, nor news-relevant data, and calling them prediction markets instead does not change that
the mainstream taking betting and gambling companies as seriously as journalism is one of the greatest evils of modern society
November 4, 2025 at 8:46 PM
Gambling odds are neither news, nor news-relevant data, and calling them prediction markets instead does not change that
I’ve have a column due explaining the NYC mayoral election to folks outside the US, and Sliwa is, by far, the most fun part of it.
it's pretty enjoyable seeing people who are now following the NYC election and just discovering the existence of Curtis Sliwa and you can feel the ???????s floating around their faces
November 4, 2025 at 10:04 PM
I’ve have a column due explaining the NYC mayoral election to folks outside the US, and Sliwa is, by far, the most fun part of it.
The early data from Election Day voting in NJ is coming in, but I’m not going to post about it. Because it shouldn’t matter.
If you haven’t cast your ballot yet, do it: your vote matters, no matter the outcome. We’ll all find out who the winner is together, tonight.
If you haven’t cast your ballot yet, do it: your vote matters, no matter the outcome. We’ll all find out who the winner is together, tonight.
November 4, 2025 at 8:36 PM
The early data from Election Day voting in NJ is coming in, but I’m not going to post about it. Because it shouldn’t matter.
If you haven’t cast your ballot yet, do it: your vote matters, no matter the outcome. We’ll all find out who the winner is together, tonight.
If you haven’t cast your ballot yet, do it: your vote matters, no matter the outcome. We’ll all find out who the winner is together, tonight.