Coming in January!

Agreed. Going to be lots of contested primaries, and a lot of hand wringing about candidates that are too far left, or don’t have enough experience, or whatever.

And yes, big parts of the institutional Democratic Party in NJ will be doing all they can to avoid running the current crop of passionate progressives who might engage voters.

I was so puzzled that the publisher was taking about that Bennett series as being a Sherlock riff. It’s very much fantasy Nero Wolfe (which, I guess, doesn’t move as many units).

How about the FHO Sandra Boynton kazoo version?

www.youtube.com/watch?v=U14I...

Thought the edit did about as good a job at building tension as it could.

Enjoy! It’s kind of a weird mash up of some of the best scenes from wildly disparate Conan stories, but Arnold is great.
And there’s the camel.

Cool stuff! I’d be real interested to see the MENA precincts as well.

Passaic County precinct analysis shows strong correlation between % Latino and swing

Some Latino Trump voters switched to Democrats, but swing also due to compositional change

Latino communities saw more churn in electorate — it looks like many Trump voters stayed home, and new voters broke D

2/3

Was looking forward to doing some analysis on that 100K sample.

We don’t have to ask voters why questions the way that exits generally do. If we need to isolate causality for affective responses, priming experiments do a much better job (and are easy enough to include on a survey).

As such, they tell us more about the considerations that are breaking through to voters as plausible explanations than they tell us about the true reasons for their affective responses.

People know how they feel, but the explanations they give (to themselves, to polls) are mostly post hoc rationalizations based on whatever concerns are top of mind when the question is asked.

You should not do this. This is not your fault, but it’s also not your obligation.

Peter Weller movies in general, maybe.

Exactly- they don’t know. We can isolate factors in a regression, but it’s all probabilistic at the individual level.

Or were pro-Trump in ‘24 because of inflation concerns. And they’re also living next door to MENA communities who turned against Harris/Buden over Palestine. I don’t think we’ll be able to pinpoint a single issue or even set that led to a change.

Yeah, I’m still waiting on voter file based data, but Nate’s analysis is persuasive. So, a combination of turnout and persuasion (though I still think it’s mostly turnout).